FancyCat

Hungary has issued its response to Ukraine's block on oil. In short, the same money its been blocking....remains blocked! Bunch of idiots. https://www.euractiv.com/section/global-europe/news/hungary-to-block-eu-funds-for-member-states-until-ukraine-allows-lukoil-transit

it's not just 4 guys in a team with a bunch of drones tho, isn't there a long supply line of programmers, production lines, companies, capital? a lot of drones is directly or indirectly western funded. https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/07/06/ukraine-drone-industry-russia-war-regulation/

Kofman spoke at a event, and while i risk certain death by posting some of his quotes, they are important. i won't post the whole thing, unfair to the article writers, but he does caution against U.S reliance on maneuver and targeting targets in the rear. https://www.defenseone.com/threats/2024/07/us-risks-learning-wrong-lessons-about-ukraines-drones-expert-says/398242/

twitter thread of Kofman, Russian artillery fire rates need to be relooked. https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1815826801836310607.html https://twitter.com/KofmanMichael/status/1815826801836310607

Hungary is actively blocking and vetoing aid to Ukraine right now. About 6 billion euros of funding is still held up by Hungary. https://www.euractiv.com/section/eu-russia/news/eu-member-states-seek-clarity-on-hungarys-russia-china-shuttle-diplomacy/ https://www.wilsoncenter.org/article/whats-store-hungarian-presidency-eu-council

Woe for Hungary.... Good decision, long overdue, Orban rat****ery on Ukraine is shameful, and the holdup of weapons from EU to Ukraine, they should have cut the pipeline way sooner. https://www.politico.eu/article/hungary-fuel-crisis-ukraine-sanctions-russian-oil-imports-lukoil-central-europe/

Tbh looking at the miniaturization of computing and how technologically we have advanced, I’ve been unable to really articulate it, so I appreciate this production discussion, but what prevents us from lowering the cost of anti-Uav systems thru sustained production? A lot of price tags for anti-uav stuff is based on lowered military budgets, lack of urgency, lack of needed production. I think it might be reasonable to say a restarted Gepard production would lower costs to be worth it.

It is essential for the West to keep supplying and supporting Ukraine lest they undertake the actions needed to preserve Ukraine but at the cost of Russia and worldwide indirectly. I mean what country would let their dams be destroyed without retaliation? Time to let Ukraine hit Russian military targets with Western weapons. Else we may see a Ukraine intent on cutting the Black Sea trade or attacks on oil raw supply and it's entirely fair for Ukraine to undertake those actions to tell Russia that their illegal actions have consequences, it is up to the West to make sure Ukraine does not need to do that.

I wouldn't doubt Ukraine is a testing ground for stuff...but are we going to hear about it? If it's sensitive, it might even have western personnel near it, and while sure things leak and get discovered, surely tons we won't hear about till the war is over at least. As for widespread deployment potential, what's the status of APS that's not Israeli tech/owned/made? Would doubt Israel would be prioritizing exports (and tbh with the way Israel is acting with regards to supporting Ukraine, I doubt the political will to provide this tech will occur should domestic demand decline) right now so we would need to rely on APS from other companies, this article seems to indicate that widespread deployment has only occurred with the IDF and deployment in other western militaries is occurring slowly and in testing phase (and the ending of the involvement of large deployments to the Middle East impeded faster development and deployment of APS in the West seems to me as the likely reason for this slowness, I think maybe the West got caught off guard by 2022 and is scrambling to get APS development moving?) https://euro-sd.com/2024/01/articles/36065/active-protection-systems-an-overview/ According to this article, the West has been very careful in preventing tech falling into Russian hands. Captured Bradley's and Abrams aren't expected to have latest tech. https://www.twz.com/land/first-confirmed-abrams-tank-variant-captured-by-russia-seen-with-inner-armor-exposed I'm no expert, would we put APS like Trophy onto tanks sent to Ukraine or is that tech that would be deemed too valuable to potentially be captured?

Maybe fair was wrong word, how does attempting to kill the CEO of one of Europe's most important arms manufacturers benefit Russia? The attempted assassination was foiled by U.S intelligence sharing the the info to Germany. Incidentally....

The west has been very diligent with not allowing their weapons to be used on Russian soil despite it being quite fair, despite Russia responding with terror attacks on Ukraine, but I dunno, attempting to assassinate the CEO of one Germany's largest arms manufacturers, uh...Germany itself is one of the cautious members of NATO, are they just that arrogant to think Germany would be cowed?

Orban is due to meet with Trump following visiting Moscow. Optics arent great tbh. Uh...on one hand sure, German artillery shells are killing Russians in Ukraine, on the other hand....I suppose the SBU will be looking at Russian executives more closely now. https://www.cnn.com/2024/07/11/politics/us-germany-foiled-russian-assassination-plot/index.html

I hope you can be safe Haiduk.

Ukraine setting up a unit for overseas Ukrainians to volunteer for the armed forces. Sounds like training and equipping will be in Poland. https://mil.in.ua/en/news/new-ukrainian-legion-to-be-formed-and-trained-in-poland/

I need to pushback the notion that Russia is a rabid dog. The Russian bombing campaign consists of calculated actions designed with specific goals in mind. I am in favor of the Capt stating that Russian clownery is a clutch, but I do think hes not able to grasp Russian mindset on terror and brutality. Maybe a example of Western arrogance. 1. Let's think about the terror mindset. Russia was able to wage hospital bombing after bombing in Syria to very little concrete pushback. We see now still that Russia continues to bomb and inflict pain on civilians in Ukraine to western nonresponse. Oh sure, more air defense. But mind you, while air defense is important, things like the collapse of electric production clearly indicate some Russian drones and missiles get through despite the defense. So for Ukrainians to watch this occur without Western offensive support increasing or permission for offensive protection of Ukraine is a morale draining situation. Consider also the essence of brutality, the lashing out of brutality on Ukraine serves a purpose, sure it may just smooth the Russian soldier and civilian to balance the defeats but end of the day these things tie into morale and morale ties into the strategic and political dimension of the country at war. Regard also the idea of escalation and de-escalation. A idea circling around is the idea that Russia does what it does because no one stops them. That flies in the face of Russia warning about nuclear escalation right? That Russia may be forced to escalate. The idea proposes that Russia, knowing that the West is scared of escalation, plays on it to illustrate Western impotence and ineffectiveness. So I open up the can of worms to warn that actions like Russian bombing of hospitals are intended as acts of terror, as expressions for their disregard for notions of "illegality", and as assertions of the futility of western support. Therefore for the west to refrain from allowing Ukraine to strike Russian military targets in Russian territory raining down missiles on civilian targets is not a deesculatory move, but a legitimation of Russian escalatory moves. A country worried about escalation would not be tossing IHL in the trash, a country worried about inviting their suffering on their civilian population would not be so quick to attack civilian targets, the fact they do so is to emphasize Western weakness.

Yeah while everyone has been focusing on tanks and drones in the thread, everyone seems to have missed that Ukraine is facing some bad scenarios this winter. Russia's ramped up attacks on civilian and major infrastructure will cause severe problems for Ukraine, and the west needs to do more to ensure they can resist, if nothing else than to prevent another refugee wave to the EU. At this rate, I fully expect Ukraine to begin targeting Russian civilian and major infrastructure if the West does not allow the use of its weapons to hit military targets in Russia. From a FT article in the beginning of June, If you think Ukraine will let their country freeze to death while Russia sits pretty lobbing missiles at hospitals without undertaking retaliation in a bid to stop them, your silly. Better for the west to control Ukraine's response than the alternative.

Decent point about the Blitz, was not Hitler a proponent of terror bombing? Only have wiki sources, but things like Rotterdam, Belgrade, etc, maybe Putin and co just like the idea of demolishing civilian targets for whatever notions of lowering morale despite it being against conventional ideas?

at this point, if i wanted to win money, i would bet on Russia launching a attack that is maiming primarily civilians on occasions of NATO - Ukraine cooperation. i doubt Russia would try and hit Poland, maybe another test of flying missiles or drones into Polish airspace before entering Ukraine, hell maybe a attempt to force Ukraine to fire another air defense missile that hit the farmers previously. So this agreement might be helpful for ensuring no ARTICLE 5 issues actually if Poland intercepts stuff over Western Ukraine. In a very morbid manner, if Ukraine wants to hit the Crimea bridge, domestic and international opinion will not be too negative. Also the chances of Ukraine striking major Russian cities is gonna increase, including ballistic missiles, i mean sure the West has banned their equipment but only a fool would believe that Ukraine isn't trying to develop and manufacture their own missiles at this point, Hirm-2 as a example. Pretty simple! Brutality and Terror. I mean, their record, if you expand it, does have dividends. Chechnya is ruled by Russia's puppet, Syria remains under Assad somewhat ish. And if your attitude is that the lives of those you are bombing aren't worth anything, and their economic value is worthless, and that the only thing that matters is their obedience to satisfy your desire for your rulership, it's clear that Russia regards Chechnya and Syria as victories, and so its no wonder acting the same at Ukraine is not much a issue. And brutality is not merely a message to the victim, but also a message for the other potential future victims of Russia. And there are definitely dividends politically and strategically, and potentially militarily. If Russia's objective is to drain Ukraine, meaning things like draining the ability of the Ukrainian people to resist, certainly bombing hospitals and other civilian infrastructure is essential for forcing more refugee outflows to the rest of Europe. Civilian infrastructure is money, the more you destroy, the more it needs replacement.

History of Russian airstrikes on hospitals is extensive, going back to Syria. https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/13/world/middleeast/russia-bombing-syrian-hospitals.html Poland and Ukraine signed a agreement that includes provisions for discussing future cooperation for Poland to potentially shoot down targets heading towards Poland from Ukrainian territory or targets that cross into Polish airspace before entering Ukraine. From Politico, https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-poland-security-deal-aid-package-war-russia/

why wouldn’t the gulf war count as validation of the western way of war?

In April, the 153rd was reorg to a infantry brigade, now reorg back to mechanized. https://militaryland.net/news/153rd-brigade-is-mechanized-again/

The Flying Tigers composed of airmen, ground crews, and the planes, and were considered volunteers to China, in the event of needing F-16 pilots of non-UKR citizenship, considering the amount of UKR personnel being trained is reportedly not enough to man the amount of pledged F-16s, might well be worth. Ground crews and contractors of course are needed in addition to pilots.

Eh, setting up production is good and all, but i am unsure how long it takes to spin up production on a new site, vs just churning out shell after shell from existing South Korean production facilities and being able to directly ship them to Ukraine. Would settle for South Korea (and lets not forget Japan) is in the process of seeking to loosen legal restrictions against supplying armed combatants, I would like to see North Korea, whom both consider a enemy and seek restrictions on, tilt the scales to allow direct supply to Ukraine.