danfrodo
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Posts posted by danfrodo
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war stuff here today, some of it already seen on this thread. Video of new, young RU war widow crying and asking if anyone has seen her husband who's been pronounced dead on the Kharkiv front. I suspect by tomorrow she'll realize she is supposed to be paid nicely for this (but good luck collecting). Maybe her hubby was conscripted. Maybe he thought he'd make some easy money raping and pillaging and murdering his way thru Ukraine.
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59 minutes ago, Hapless said:
Not sure this one has surfaced here yet:
Obviously there's a lot of focus on the positives of drones, but how often do we think about how much they can encourage higher commanders to micromanage?
So that was UKR drone w overlaid RU radio intercept? Fascinating, thx for sharing Hapless (oh, and thanks for all the youtube vids while I am at it). So the commander is micromanaging all the way down to "tell them to fire at the ATGMS" as if they couldn't figure that out? He sounded more like an obnoxious fan at a sporting event than a commander of anything. Then, as punch line for all of, there's huge bavovna as they are ordered to drive over the mines. Made my day.
Edit: or was than an ATGM hit that caused the explosion?
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good stuff on the war today, w videos of the big UKR drone attack on RU. Plus tanks going bavovna.
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7 hours ago, BFCElvis said:
Straight from the desk of @Ithikial_AU. Here ya go:
https://www.matrixgames.com/news/combat-mission-battle-for-normandy-battle-pack-2-dlc-dev-diaryDev diary states: It’s the collection of some well-known engagements an Armchair General would like to play on a rainy Sunday afternoon with a glass of whiskey in one hand and cigar in the other.
I don't drink or smoke -- can I still play this battlepack?
edit: and I see he is using Lions of Caretan as source material. That oughta be fun!
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Some interesting videos today, showing close up fighting on Kharkiv front, plus the usual collection of bavovnas.
Again we see claim of 1500 RU lost in a day, again, plus dozens of armored vehicles and arty systems. Assuming that UKR is exaggerating consistently, this is still a 50% increase in RU casualties since they attacked over the border. That's ~5 days of 1500 plus claimed, something like that? Makes the estimate of 50k RU troops in the region seem awfully small when they are losing ~2% or so per day. A month of this and UKR could walk to Belgorod.
And so I go on hoping for a mutiny to start and spread. These RU guys just seem to be OK with being slaughtered? Geeeez, kill the masters. I know it's probably not easy but at least you'd have a chance of surviving. I suppose they can't trust each other enough to try it, thinking the others would not join in.
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On 5/10/2024 at 3:41 PM, OldSarge said:
The long wait is over! BP2 has a real date!
Time to get into mindset, I'm re-reading Joseph Balkoski's Utah Beach.
https://www.matrixgames.com/news/combat-mission-battle-for-normandy-battle-pack-2-out-on-d-day
https://www.matrixgames.com/game/combat-mission-battle-for-normandy-battle-pack-2ahhhh, Balkoski! Excellent, I think I might need to do a re-read myself, thanks for that note.
Like Warts, I have tons of RT & Downfall still to play but work has been rather all consuming for quite a while now, though will slow down to normal pace soon. But I loooooooooove Normandy campaign and can't wait to get this. I've got a week off coming up end which is one week too early, dang it.
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10 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:
Seems the Russian incursion has already lost its momentum and now is into a grinding phase which will probably last for a week or two minimum.
I hope all the people that were freaking out (pro-Ukrainian) or celebrating it (anti-Ukrainian/pro-Russian) got what they wanted to out of the first few days of the offensive, because it looks like that's all they are going to get.
Steve
I am still filing the Kharkiv offensive under the label "try something, anything" and this sounded good to Putin. RU losing a LOT of men to drive a short distance across the border. But how much of UKR forces did they actually displace to do it? We aren't seeing some big push somewhere else by RU, at least yet. Seems RU had to mass quite a bit of their own from other areas to put this force together. So, overall, it is starting to look like another grinding slaughter that just hopes to wear down UKR via human sacrifice of one's own populace.
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4 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:
At the very least it is an admission by Russia that it is unable to do much with the rest of the front. If it thought it could exploit Avdiivka or create another significant breach in the line, those 50,000 troops invested into a distracting action would have instead been invested in the main front. Therefore, the new border incursion does appear to be a sign that Russia isn't having much luck so far in 2024 and is trying to change it.
Bundanov's tantalizing statement that he had expected another attack in the Sumy region, but that it hasn't happened because of the Kharkiv one, is also good news. It also answers the question I had in my head which was "why isn't Russia trying this elsewhere"? The probable answer is that it doesn't have enough resources to start up another one. I can picture them reallocating the resources for Sumy to Kharkiv or elsewhere. At least I hope that's what is going on.
Steve
This is an interesting point. If Putin had this big force available, why didn't he use it to take the other stuff he's been trying & failing at? One thing I like to keep in mind in all this is who we are dealing with. Putin is a (yet another) dictator who is in a serious bind, so he keeps doubling down, over & over, throwing more & more into the fray in the hopes that the other side will fold. We've seen incredibly desperate moves with horrific losses for negligible gain as he flails about for some kind of victory.
So thinking about it from that angle, what is going on up north? I am wondering whether Putin got tired of getting nowhere at great cost and decided to fire everyone and get some new schmucks with new ideas -- but the new schmucks also can't overcome the fundamental issues that have led to failure so far. Someone then came up with attacking on a new front where UKR would be weak, supposedly. So off they go that-a-way.
I am interested in knowing if the attacks & shelling & overall RU activity on other fronts has lessoned, which would probably mean there's not enough resources to around. Not much good to run a feint if there's not enough to exploit it elsewhere.
But we'll see. UKR pushed back some today north of Kharkiv, so things might already be stalled up there. And if Budanov is right and Sumy isn't happening then there's definitely lack of resources. Of course, we migth see Sumy activate but I bet if so then Kharkiv will suddenly become much quieter. Or the rest of the front will be become much quieter. Seems when you lose ~1000 men + dozens of armored vehicles & artillery per day, there's a limit -- I hope??
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good stuff in this post today. Close combat video of single UKR soldier vs 4 RU, he kills one or two then some small arms from off camera finish the job. Also has report of where RU is concentrating fire, and it's east of Kharkiv toward Kupyansk, speculation that maybe Kupyansk is the real goal of this operation.
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18 minutes ago, Vanir Ausf B said:
Tatarigami_UA on the Kharkiv situation:
- The attack was not unexpected: HUR representative Andriy Yusov stated that the enemy's actions began according to a known schedule that had been communicated to authorities, leadership, and command. My team has publicly reported about dispersed units along the border as well
- Given the current lack of information, it's too early to draw definitive conclusions. However, the abandonment of positions and advancement beyond the grey zone indicates brigade leadership's and the strategic command's inability to react to threats despite having intel
- This is the result of systematic issues stemming from a lack of understanding of brigade capabilities and readiness, along with problems in personnel training, leading to an inability to effectively position and allocate resources when needed.
- The delayed aid from the West, particularly in terms of artillery and artillery shells, is indeed contributing to the problem. However, this issue is not the core problem in this case, and blaming the West for it is counter-productive.
https://twitter.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1790086938046710097
That's disconcerting. At the same time, there's reports that RU lost 1700 in one day -- cutting by half that's still a good day for UKR. Hopefully RU will push recklessly and get smashed. Time will tell.
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8 minutes ago, The_Capt said:
It you see the problem of course, an automated massive gun on a heavy platform. Gimme a good old M2 on some cheap truck with an auto targeting turret. Then if we get it wrong it does not cost a multimillion dollar platform.
The idea of an automated turret is not a bad one but this was a clear BS demo as it manages to shoot down drones flying in a neat little line. In reality they are going to come in fast and low from every direction. That Boxers turret will be spinning like mad. Or we will see a ground formations like B17s blazing away in all directions. Better than nothing but not the solution.
As I have said before the damned solution is other UAS that can track and engage incoming FPVs, likely fully autonomous. Put em up like CAP and go from there. Now what we put in the center of the bubble remains the major question. Could be Boxers, could be lighter armoured track like those BVs.
Why is it some people appear to take this personally? Look at the battlefield. Look at what has been happening for over two years now. More important look at was not been happening. This is not like we have seen a few snapshots and are wildly extrapolating. We have watched hundreds, maybe thousands, of examples, too many to fake. The evidence is too great here that the battlefield has shifted…ok, so what? We get on with dealing with it.
I am with the captain on this. Until someone can neutralize drones there's just too much risk in expensive, easy to target stuff.
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8 hours ago, Offshoot said:
Reporting from Ukraine has a narrative on the Kharkiv offensive ( https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hi_mMG9Bdwk ). According to him, it is under the command of General Aleksandr Lapin (who lost at Lyman) and Ukrainian intelligence knew about the build up, the numbers of Russian troops involved (50,000) and roughly when the Russians were going to start. Given the number of Russians is way too small to achieve possible objectives of taking Kharkiv or Vovchansk, his conclusion is that the main purpose is to try and draw Ukrainians away from other areas to make gains there easier, but it hasn't worked so far. Apparently there are also heavy fortifications around Kharkiv and east so it's possible the Ukrainians were prepared to yield ground. The Russians also have not just strolled in unopposed but have suffered losses there.
I saw same video, was more hopeful than some other reports, but we just don't know much yet. I am hoping that UKR purposely set their defenses back from the border to avoid easy artillery & even mortar attacks. Hopefully UKR has some nasty kill zones planned out for the advancing Putinites. They may have been willing to cede some terrain to avoid losses and are not admitting this because it would be rather bad PR.
Or they are getting whupped. We just don't know.
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7 minutes ago, pintere said:
Much as I hate to be "that guy", word from the Kharkiv front is not good. It seems there is not much in the way of minefields, fortifications and men to defend at all. The attached BBC article interviews a Ukrainian soldier who stated that the Russians had just "walked in".
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c72p0xx410xo
A Ukrainian telegram channel (which included a video of Russians marching in column) had this to say:
"Ukrainian defence is apparently not so robust in Kharkiv region after all. Ruzzian infantry is just marching. Our drone operators are also commenting about the poor defence.
I say like it is…
Vovchansk will be occupied very soon
"
The impression I get is that, just as the Russians were complacent in Fall 2022 on this front, so too have the Ukrainians been complacent in preparing for the possibility of a serious attack in this area. I hope to be proven wrong, time will tell.
I sure hope it's not this bad, pintere, but maybe it is. I am worried about how much territory RU will get and which UKR will have to fight to get back. Maybe the main defense lines are farther back, but we'll see over the next week I guess.
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Well, hopefully the Kharkiv offensive will somehow turn to UKR's favor. Hopefully more RU assets lost at a much greater rate than can be replaced. Maybe some kind of mutiny starts. But this is just me hoping & praying. Maybe some larger RU units advance and actually get fully and completely cut off, that would be a nice treat.
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Anyone got any news on the new RU attack toward Kharkiv?
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1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:
Obviously, this is the operation to watch. This is the first new offensive action we've seen from Russia since 2022. Even Avdiivka was a continuation of what was already happening. And every action Russia has engaged in since stalling out in 2022 has had very easily understood terrain objectives. This one is an unknown, though obviously there are guesses as to their intentions (i.e. 10km buffer zone).
The only way Russia has gained ground in the past 2 years is through the massive expenditure of resources. We'll have to see what they pump into this operation before we can really understand what Russia is trying to achieve.
I'm hopeful this will turn out to be an advantage for Ukraine for two reasons:
1. Russia has limited resources and every offensive action they take burns through them faster than if it remained largely defensive.
2. Time is the biggest battlefield element for both sides. Harboring resources tends to stretch out the remaining time, expending resources tends to shorten it. Russia engaging in two simultaneous offensive actions (presuming they continue this one) means they shorten their available time in some way/s.
Russia has limited time on their strategic clock and IMHO this year has proven that they fully understand that whatever opportunities might exist to knock Ukraine down look better this year than next. We've talked about the political and economic issues facing Russia's ability to continue this war so it should not come as a surprise for me to think Russia is aware of where things are headed.
Steve
I'm just hoping UKR has the resources to smash this RU incursion. Hopefully we'll be getting video of lots of wrecked columns. If UKR has the resources. What I am foolishly hoping for is that UKR actually has some offensive reserves and uses this to test them against an enemy not sitting behind minefields. An enemy that is exhausted and overextended.
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20 minutes ago, MikeyD said:
By the time Trump enters office in 2025, if it comes to that, Russia should be down to seven running tanks at the current loss rate
I keep thinking that. They'll run out of arty tubes, IFVs & tanks, we think, based on the loss rates. But I also keep questioning whether we are being the german general staff circa 1941/2, where we continually think they are running out of everything but turns out.....
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One point missed on the Trump thing: he has borrowed money from RU oligarchs. We know this because his son admitted it on video ~10 years ago or so. He was mocking the US banks the wouldn't loan to the serial defaulter anymore and said (paraphrase) 'we just borrow from RU instead'. Also RU oligarchs had bought some of his properties at oddly non-market prices, leading to some wondering about money laundering. So when we talk about what Trump would do we need to recognize the very high probability that he is on some level a leveraged RU asset. And his behavior toward Putin/RU has certainly been like that over the years.
Plus Zelensky refused his extortion racket which led to Trump's first impeachment (he was completely guilty, by the way).
So pretending he'd be doing anything statesmanlike or diplomatic is absurd. He would serve Putin and abandon Ukraine.
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A few good bits here today. Videos showing RU dead and destroyed.
So there's been posts that RU is running out of tubes/arty systems, yet they seem to still be firing, a lot. RU losing tanks & IFVs at a shocking pace, but they still keep coming. Personnel loses are shocking, even if we cut UKR reports by 1/2, yet they keep coming. I can see how RU won't run out of meat, but the other stuff seems in endless supply, though of dwindling quality.
So what is Putin actually up to? He's taking massive losses to gain small amounts of ground. Does he think UKR will actually buckle? Or is he simply and cynically getting every hectare he can because he just doesn't care about cost? He's burning up a lot of resources and so it would seem he has zero fear of UKR exploiting his depletion of forces. Meanwhile, I suppose he's hoping somehow UKR or the west loses the will to continue and seeks a bad settlement. But at the same time his own infrastruture is starting to take a beating. This is classic, where the dictator starts war and then just keeps doubling down no matter the cost to the country.
Meanwhile, we wait until probably summer of 2025 for UKR to be able to somehow challenge this on the battlefield?
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wanna weaken Putin even more? how about this kinda stuff?
California getting huge amount of its energy via solar in april and adding batteries to the mix starts to provide that ~free energy on-demand. Imagine Putin w/o the petro money spigot. The more big energy users that move away from fossil fuels, the smaller the market, the less money to the monster.
For more good fun, imagine the loathsome saudis w/o petro money. They would have nothing but dry, worthless sand.
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2 hours ago, The_Capt said:
Ok, well really hard to tell what that really means. Could be military socks for all we know - and don't turn a nose up at that one, good socks are a lifesaver in this business.
Regardless, we know Russia has started pulling and China has jumped in to an extent. What we are not seeing are high end Chinese military platforms or systems on the battlefield. I encourage anyone interested to take a look at what China is really producing - https://odin.tradoc.army.mil/WEG/List/ORIGIN_china--people-s-republic-of-d6ee02
If the high end stuff was getting shipped we would be seeing Chinese HIMARs show up in force: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PHL-03 That plugged into Chinese ISR support could make this war so much worse - the other side of the proxy escalation ladder.
Which brings us to the question of what is China really doing? Are they just trying to make a few bucks while also keeping their old adversary weak? If they wanted RU to actually win they'd be giving the good stuff like the west is giving. Are they just trying to play both sides where they support RU enough to save face w Putin but also not so much as to anger the west? And make a few bucks at the same time?
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holy moly, huge body count from UKR strike on a RU training site. ~100 bodies. Plus bradley pounding MTLB & russian armor getting mauled, always a pick-me-up. Plus some further tragedy for UKR people in the form of lost young heroes & other stuff.
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Thanks for the info @ThathumanHayden and @Halmbarte But y'all are making me sad. I want to destroy T64s, by the dozens. Nothing worse than rounds bouncing off a T64. A sherman or T34 vs panther frontal armor I am used to bouncing shells, but in the cold war I really want to win. Once the module arrives I am sure I will welcome the challenge. I suppose I should think of how I handle shermans, where I need to be creative if I'm gonna win against superior armor.
I wonder if we'll get a brit module someday with the challenger 1s? Will those shred T64s?
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2 hours ago, Halmbarte said:
I am too, but I know it'll probably be a bad as the M60 vs the Sov stuff.
H
So the chieftain gun not any better than the M60 gun? Maybe some experts here have some insight on this?
How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?
in Combat Mission Black Sea
Posted
Hilarious. Calls UKR forces an 'armed rabble', which is as unintentionally ironic and completely non-self aware as one can get. Then the usual RU psuedo-dostoyevsky type philosophical mismatch, at the end of which is says 'you cannot deceive yourself'. -- really?