Kinophile
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Posts
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Days Won
22
Posts posted by Kinophile
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1 hour ago, JonS said:
Aside from saving your life, trenches and pits are actually pretty cosy places to hang out. Total PITA to dig, but once you've done the mahi they're gold.
Edit: but yeah, I do get the instinctive "nope!" when looking from the outside in
The trench I'm fine, totally. But no ****ing way am I going under earth that dense and heavy with only a tiny mousehole to escape. Also, that hole is at floor level, so first heavy rain that cozy little death trap is gonna flood.
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25 minutes ago, Haiduk said:
UKR trench. The deep hole can rise your chances during artilley shellings
Or entomb you. Jesus no bloody way am I going in that.
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18 minutes ago, Grigb said:
Looks like we are on the verge of another regrouping in Kherson. Few hours ago, RU reported UKR started major assault. I was waiting for confirmation but just now RU solders from there reported:
Such confusion is deeply satisfying.
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Another flag.... Notable that these guys self organized without the pressure of combat losses to get them stirred up. Someone motivated them, informed them and organized them to a take a stand, despite threat of law enforcement.
From little acorns...
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Man, I love the backflip symmetrical beauty of UKR with ****ty T64s beating RUS forces and capturing T80/90s, then using those more modern MBTs against the replacement RUS tanks that are... T62s.
Perfect.
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3 hours ago, beardiebloke said:
@Probuswas asking about "HE Anti-personnel HIMARS" and I found this:
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/9/30/2126197/-Ukraine-update-Russia-prepares-for-advance-on-Svatove-as-U-S-provides-powerful-new-rockets@danfrodois the "LIBERAL SITE, ENTER AT OWN PERIL" warning mandatory?
Their source seems to be this tweet:I guess they're not particularly controversial so I don't see why this couldn't be true.
These look deeply unpleasant from the RU infantry's point of view. Not sure when they would be used if UKR has precision artillery shells, perhaps if they get intel on a big, soft-ish target in RU's rear.
Like say, when a company or two are trying to cross a wide river, just as they start embarking on to barges....
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19 hours ago, Grigb said:
If my skill of smelling RU tealeaves is still good RU is much worse shape than we think. They cannot send anybody even to Chernopopivka. And UKR are already at outskirts of Kreminna. It is one step to Stary Krasnyanka.
Plus digging in is not the way to fight this offensive.
UKR has simply brute-forced the nature of the war is this theater into medium-long range maneuver (instead of the previous attrition format) with forces deliberately trained, built and supplied with that in mind.
RUS by contrast is still in a static attritional configuration (and seems unable to adapt - surprise) with the added insult that RUS command (ie Putin) has thrown the whole theater to the wolves.Operational level forces do exist for RUS to attempt to stall or stop the offensive, but are clearly being held back. RUS "reinforcements" seem to be just local units shifted from tactical crisis to crisis, with consequential erosion and eventual destruction.
The previous read we've noted here, that Putin seems to not care about Luhansk, seems to being borne out on the ground, to UKR s reward.
I suspect North Luhansk will fall to a combination of perfectly opposite objectives and priorities:
- UKR actually wants Luhansk & the border and has built a force to achieve that.
- RUS (Putler) does not need Luhansk and has refused to waste operationally significant forces defending it. The MoD seems to be trying to support the defence but I suspect Putler is constantly interfering and corrupting their attempts.
So UKR will hit the border, eventually and inevitably.
Then turn south, to directly threaten something Putler has made clear he does care about - the land corridor to Crimea.
That's when we'll see how much Putler cares, and by inference how many Russian men he wil send to get slaughtered to defend that priority.
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Hmm interesting
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What's Sheep talk for "NO! I SAID NO GODDAMIT! "
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14 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:
Thanks mate, appreciating. They took my phone at hospital so I needed to convince one nurse (golden woman, God bless her) to bring me fresh detailed news from the front every day for a week.
Oh, I read lone Topol missile launcher is reportedly making rounds at the streets of Moscow to show Putin is not joking. Which looks like he is in fact joking...
But even his speech (yes, that one with LGBT satanists) was as we can tell relatively nuke-free. Ok, maybe I will leave a topic as it was probably talked here many times already.
Still, it's good to track movements of the enemy.
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4 hours ago, acrashb said:
First, congratulations on your Escape From Buffalo (soon to be in a theatre near you starring Wyatt Russell).
Second, it isn't the lake, it's being downwind from the lake. The wind picks up moisture from Lake Ontario and dumps it on Buffalo. I live upwind from that lake, and our climate is indeed moderated by it - we certainly get snow, but not like in Buffalo or even a bit North / West of here.
Interestingly, the prevailing wind direction in Toronto is W--> NE. We do get snow dumps but I personally definitely notice when the wind is from the N/NE.
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44 minutes ago, Haiduk said:
Photos with vertlical glow in the night sky, seen in several Russian cities, posted here recently, can be a work of some newest Russian optical system Peresvet - unknown device, which allegedly can blind sattelites on orbites up to 1,5 km to foil the tracking for mobile strategic missiles launchers routes. And on the video above we can see moving Topol-M
Here is video from Belgorod
Peresvet complex
Hmmmmmmm
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5 hours ago, Artkin said:
I believe the main issue will be in Kherson area, where you have these large farm fields. Cold air coming in from the Black Sea should dump much more snow than you'll find in the North. I bet you the winds are brutal down there, and the fields will have snow walls on the end, 3m tall.
I think it's the other way around? The cold dry air comes from the north, hits the "warmer" (relatively) and moister air from off the Black Sea, and hey presto snow. Generally large bodies of water are warmer than equivalent land areas.
The immediate coast will be snowy but comparatively wet and thinner, with the heavier levels a bit further inland.
A general overview of Ukraines climatology. Note the temp increase over the last decade. In 10 years its possible there'll be no snow on the coast for a lot of the winter, I suspect. Even here in Toronto there's markedly less snow over the winter as a whole than when I first came here on 2009.
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5 minutes ago, acrashb said:
The way to keep feet warm is to keep your core warm and your feet dry
Thats only part, the cold worms its way in inevitably. You wont regret it. Ive put a set in my boots, shot an entire day's worth (12 hours!) and come home with them still warm.
And, I swear to goodness, I put the boots on the next morning and the pads can still have heat.
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47 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:
Heh. Well, I feel the same way about hot areas. I'd rather put more layers on than sit in a puddle of my own juices.
I went winter camping at -28F (-34c) air temp with a lot of wind. Younger days, but I rather enjoyed it! Fast forward 20 years to a night at an ice hotel (whole building made out of ice, including the bed and night stand). I was fine, but my wife pulled the ripcord at about 5 in the morning and we bailed.
The primary problem with winter fighting is, as was mentioned earlier, footwear. Unlike hands which can be shoved into pockets or taken inside a jacket for a boost, feet just hang out at the furthest distance from the body's heat center. Nothing you can really do about them other than periodically pull them out of boots and warm them by a fire.
Even in the relatively mild winter climate of Ukraine (and it seems the warming trend makes it mild by my standards) it doesn't take long to get frostbite from improper footwear. In fact, there were tons of reports of Russian soldiers developing frostbite and other cold related health issues during the "exercises" prior to the war's start. They didn't have proper clothing even then, it's probably going to be even worse this winter.
Steve
toe warmers for the ULTIMATE WINTER WIN.
My god those things are the magic of the angels.
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https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/04/world/europe/ukraine-russia-prisoner-lyman.html
yes yes its the NYT, but
1- I love that photographer's work
2. The article notes something we haven't mentioned here (I think) - the use of the North-South running rivers as water highways, RLOCS (?) and not just as water obstacles to be crossed.
Because the inevitable course of the Kharkiv offensive is to turn south into Donbass, the rivers will turn from being Defensive Lines the UA must deliberately assault across and instead into Ground(Riverine) Lines of Communication, running in the same operational direction as the offensive itself. So in theory a potential source of friction will become a source of speed & mobility.
Now, the winter obviously will reduce the usefulness; I doubt you could trust the river ice with anything heavier than a van or light truck. Not just in terms of weight, I think UKR gets decent river ice, but sheer quantity of vehicles and rate of use. Im sure there will be areas/stretches than can take a heavy truck etc, but no river ice is reliable for very long under heavy and continuous vehicular use. Then, come the spring....
So the undeniable fact that the UA will need to turn south at some point and will then be flowing with the grain of the topography rather than against it, will absolutely be a factor in the pace and flow of operations against the RUS.
An interesting analogy might be the Shenandoah Valley in the US Civil War. Essentially a giant channel into the Union heartlands, it became a critical strategic theater. Once the Confederates were eventually beaten off (sorry Stonewall) it then became a dagger into the heart of the Confederacy. The point being, that both sides used the natural grain of the land to enable & amplify operational and strategic missions and objectives.
Another example would be the Allies hitting the Rhine - once they had that, they had a logistical artery par exellence to support the advance east and south.
The Donbass watershe essentially flows in the same ultimate direction of Ukraine's strategic (not just operational!) objectives - to the Azov sea.wrong, dummy. But it still flows into the flanks of RUS lines and to the RUS border, and we all know how much the UA loves a nice flank attack...Conversely, Russia will be still be defending and communicating across the topological grain, offering lots of opportunities (as already exist) for choking GLOCs at bridges and river crossings. So their friction will remain and steadily be increased.
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Now, I'm thinking of this here, at this early/mid-ish point in the UA Kharkiv Donbss counterattack. I'm pretty sure some clever lads in the UA GenStab are right now badgering geographers, hydrological engineers, river police, structural and transport engineers and anyone else they can think of (maybe we can too?) for insights and ideas of how to exploit this coming synchronicity in the UA's national war aims and the natural topography of the battlefield.
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3 hours ago, Canada Guy said:
Kinophile, you mentioned snowmobiles, but all the UA army needs is a few Aimo Koivunen
https://allthatsinteresting.com/aimo-koivunen
The references to the winter weather are interesting. I live in a part of Canada that is on average -20C in Feb but last year it dripped down to around -51C (-60F for our American friends).
I assume parts of Ukraine have the same weather patterns.
I was freezing after 45 minutes outside in great gear and good winter boots and keeping up a good pace to keep warm. I am not joking when I say that Canada should ship winter gear to Ukraine instead of anything else. General winter could be a deciding factor.
I've previously shot overnight on the Toronto Lakefront in January and holy ****ing **** its awful. Just ****ing ****ty **** **** *** **** mother****er **** ****y ****ing awful. And that was with Baffin boots, heating pads, many layers, canada goose level coat, insulated overalls, gloves with heat pads, spare layers, etc. I was fine, in the end, but I was in no bloody hurry to do anymore days on 1st Unit of The Strain, I can tell you.
I've never been so cold - except in the old power station, the Hearn. But that has gigantic concrete floors that hold and radiate the cold, plus wind* and a nice nasty asbesto-y dust to blow around and as it was literally my first day on a film set and I knew nothing, I absolutely was not dressed correctly.
Which is the point, really.
I don't know if anyone else noticed, but we were all jabbering in the Spring about the expected rains giving a mud season that would slow down RUS ops. Personally I saw very little impediment or hindrance due to surface conditions. Certainly nothing dramatic compared to the Wehrmacht's experience.
I doubt this coming winter will slow the UA. As has been noted by others, winter hits the unprepared unequally.
And I dont hear no stories about Ukraine "losing" 1.5 million winter uniforms.
*Wind is the killer, it really is. I find Terry Pratchet's description of a "Lazy Wind" as perfectly apt - "It doesn't bother going around, it just goes right through you."
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Isnt it simply about safety? ie being as far away as possible from mines and being able to rapidly get away from the vehicel if it becomes a target or is actually hit.
The soviet garbage is very vulnerable to mines, has useless armor and is not designed for fast, safe egress (i.e if hit).
You get a light vehicle thats easily produced, modified and maintained, but at a cost of safety & protection.
As always: Good, Fast or Cheap, pick two. Or - Survivable, Maintainable, Buildable.
USSR couldnt build a maintainable and properly survivable APC/IFV, not at the quantity they needed. So they choose having a lot of vehicles for a reasonable price, at the cost of crew/infantry survivability. Soldiers arent stupid, no one rides on the outside of a military vehicle for comfort. Hell, inside often aint great either!
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https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3505811-pavlo-fedosenko-hero-of-ukraine.html
I've tracked him since 2014.
Read that article and note how many times he says that he, personally, is responsible for his subordinates - their welfare, lives and military support. And they repay it back. As noted early by others, the German Wehrmacht had a similar Esprit de corps (as did the Western Allies, and I assume some Soviet commanders).
Winning is inevitable. No matter what, the UA will find a way, together.
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2 hours ago, Vet 0369 said:
Well then, I stand corrected. Thank you. Now I guess that whether the earthen mound is a dam with a causeway on top of it (built to stop the water flow and create a reservoir) or a causeway (elevated road built to cross a low lying water feature). Isn’t the English language so fantastic to give us so many opportunities for discussions?
Those damn Angles, Saxons and Normans. Never mix languages, dammit. That way lies madnesssssss....
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1 hour ago, akd said:
Shiba Inu-drawn dogsleds!
We must inform NAFO of this future development. Memes must be ready for winter!
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1 minute ago, sburke said:
It was done because there was an existing agreement with the Afghan gov't. It was not actually Biden's plan, it was Trump's. That is not an intended criticism. Getting out of Afghanistan was always going to be a mess whether it was implemented by a republican or democratic leadership.
Yup. We've already explored this topic. There's a simpler explanation than some long-view deep thinking on the part of politicians - prior agreements panning out by accident into a better overall situation.
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3 hours ago, Vet 0369 said:
The only reason they didn’t veto the UN forces in Korea, was because the resolution was presented and voted on after the Soviet Ambassador had left the room for some reason. The Soviet or Russian Ambassador has never let that occur again. I suspect the Ambassador has been told that he is to soil himself rather than ever leave the room again.
No, more than that. Russia made the mistake of boycotting in protest, attempting to discredit or politically weaken the UNSC. But the UNSC kept working and voted without them. Naturally no one has ever made that mistake again, which is kinda a good thing, i.e. Tantrums get you nothing and we're still going to do what you don't want us to do.
From wiki, but also what I grew up learning:
"The resolution passed since the Soviet Union was boycotting the UN for recognising Republic of China as China.[2]"
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2 hours ago, Vet 0369 said:
Nope! A causeway is a passage from a mainland to an island. The island and the causeway are completely surrounded by water. An earthen dam is a dam made of earth, vs an earth-core dam or a concrete dam. Earthen dam is just more descriptive of the dam.
Not exactly or only.
A Causeway can be on top of a dam or dyke.
How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?
in Combat Mission Black Sea
Posted
Oh I get the purpose but nope nopity nope no.
Until the first shell lands near this armchair warrior, I'm sure...