Kinophile

Interestingly, crushing Wagner has enormous domestic political implications within Russia. If there's anything that would truly get the Siloviki's knickers in an unholy tangle it would be Prigozhin's boys getting annihilated, Prigozhin screaming blue murder and the RUS MOD being forced to reinforce/save it as a formation, to the overall operational/theatre wide detriment of the entire force in Ukraine and the intense irritation (or satisfaction!) of the MOD. Holy moly, talk about cats in a bag... Taking out Wagner could be the key to the entire war, because of how its bound into the political forces morphing inside Putin's power structure.

Or, the biggest potential shift of all, the premier Siloviki start treating with Ukraine outside of Putin's direction. Prigozhin could actually be a starter - or he might think he could. Funnily often a hawkish position allows dovish moves, due to the perceived credibility gained from harsh rhetoric, plus he now has a literal military powerbase. What's Putin going to do, arrest him?

On to Melitopol

Btw, taking bets on how soon before Zelensky appears in Kherson... I say by Sunday.

Team effort, my friends! Thank you to all of you for your contributions, support and patience. At times, parts of the process of getting the gear to @Haiduk has really felt like taking a poop in reverse, but it's been worth it all. The tears, the tissue paper, the bottles of VIM spray... All worth it. I'm delighted we've moved as a group to materially support one of our own (and his wife!). It really makes me happy. Of course, once this goddamn stupid and cruel war is over, @Haiduk must show us his Black Sea tactical chops in an AAR! See, buddy, it was all an elaborate trap...

I dont know, it's not clear. I'm inferring to a broad conclusion, but it's certainly not the only possible interpretation. Essentially, I'm taking the relatively non-violent nature of the evacuation to imply some level of contact between the UKR and RUS operational level force HQs. Then, because Putin's war is a military operation conceived, driven and defined by personal, political considerations I'm asuming that any peer-level communication is framed by those internal political pressures. Putin has repeatedly denied the validity and equivalence of Ukrainian political structures and demands - instead everything Ukraine says or does is supposedly a mindless expression of the true foe, NATO/West/Hilary Clinton/whatever, so anything Ukraine says is dismissed out of hand if it does not match exactly with the True Enemy(tm)'s line of thought. If there was a localized agreement between the UKR and RUS militaries, then that means part of Putin's domestic power structure is now dealing with the Ukrainians in a rational, realistic manner contrary to Putin's ideological framing of the "Ukrainian Problem" as a Western sock puppet with Biden's geriatric arm up their butts. So someone or group of someone's in the Putin's power structure has clear eyes on the real nature of their situation and accepts the political concepts that 1) the Ukrainians themselves are a deciding faction, and 2) Putin's ideological approach is unrealistic/ unusable - and has acted on that. Russians must therefore deal with Ukraine direct, which is contrary to the fundamental tenet of Putin's War that Ukraine has no agency of its own and is but the benighted, simple creature of Nefarious NATO. So I'm extrapolating a lot, I'm aware, and the theory is entirely dependent on if there was actual communication and negotiation between the opposing militaries. I'm still only watching, and thinking, pondering, squinting...

YAY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! LOL that last mile. Man I did not expect that to be the hard part! Yet very symbolic timing in the end:) So glad it got you in one piece! Is your wife happy with the laptop?

I don't see how it would be undemocratic for a democratically elected government to allow its civilian controlled military to treat locally, from a position of strong operational advantage, with a brutal enemy fully capable of inflicting massive civilian slaughter that was effectively holding an entire city hostage. The Ukrainian people elected the Zelensky administration in reasonably fair, open and freely observed elections. The govs clear wartime mandate is the recovery of Ukrainian land and people at the minimum of losses. Talking with RUS opposite HQs to free Kherson without an urban fight and concomitant terrible civilian suffering absolutely falls within the remit of the wartime mandate. There will always be political attempts to portray talking with the enemy as *"treasonous" but it's patently false - the fact of all those Welcome videos versus bloody and slow streetfighting clips, puts the lie to any of that nonsense. If this was the result of operational level contact between UKR and RUS militaries then that bodes far better for the future. It means that the Ivans, at some politico-military level, are treating Ukraine as a peer. Ukraine has forced respect and engagement on some sector of the Russian political landscape, which is absolutely not the Kremlin line.

Tis done.

Locals hung the flag in advance of UKR forces.

Or stopped attempting.

Rumint but....

Rumint but....

24 hrs change

He's not a bad source usually. I doubt "removal of Putin" nonsense but it would be good to corrode/overwhelm RUS attempt at narrative contol with media of excessive RUS casualties

"there were no agreements". Yup, because Russians are an untrustworthy sack of lying ****s. Also perfect example of how RUS command truly does not care about its men. Any responsible and decent GHQ would negotiate a retreat agreement with UKR. That was something I noticed ref Suvorokins pantomine nonsense - no mention of communication with UKR opposing numbers. No talk of staged, deliberate and non aggressive retreat, keeping RUS troops whole at the exchange of leaving Kherson and people's undamaged or contested. Just "We leaving, Buh Bye!" and all the Ivans at Kherson going "Wait, what? Now!?". Man, racists bigotry reaps it's own inevitable reward. The UKR artillery will mow the Dniper banks like a horrific gigantic human lawn mower. And The ghosts of Iloviask will have their long due revenge.

I doubt it's the biggest strike, just a particularly bigger one than usually shown on social. +View from one of the trucks involved :

https://mil.in.ua/en/news/ukraine-continues-to-negotiate-on-leopard-2-tanks/ Hmmm

It seems RUS can just about handle/eventually fend off large UKR offensives, with highly variable levels of competence. I'm curious just how well they could handle an entire front-wide, multiple (supporting) axis UKR general offensive? It could require a level of HQ staff competence and polity al unity that simply doesn't exist in higher RUS command circles. Stress the system and it'll stall, argue a d eventually react. potentially fatally late. Currently RUS is able to shift forces to meet each offensive, eventually stall it and then rush off to fight the next fire. But a general offensive could be the punch that splits the RUS army in Ukraine into isolated, non-supporting fights. Naturally, that would require a lot from the ZSU, and allies, but maybe not for as long as one might think. Once the splits happen it couod be very difficult for RUS to internally coordinate and cooperate to reform a cohesive, single defense.

? Also how heavy are any of the foreign volunteer units? My impression is they're more like MRBts, with emphasis on local infantry combat rather than armor/mech breakthrough ops? If it's is mostly FVs there then tis could just be opportunistic(read, short term) local development empowered by that judicious HIMARS decap on RUS command, above.

Funny, isn't that exactly their approach to domestic Law & Order as it is

Well, each section holds about 300 names, and is say, 5m long, pier to pier. Current RUS casualties are c75000, so /300 = 250 sections. 250 * 5m = 1250 So a wall 1. 25km long, and still growing.... Incidentally, the Kremlin complex is about 1.5km in circumference, so pretty soon (eg Jan 2023) a wall like this could encircle that particular heart of darkness. And keep growing and growing, visually tightening a noose... But it's not like those cruel ****s inside will give a damn, of course.

That alone would justify a serious Black Sea expansion. Not just on the UKR side, but the RUS as well. An interesting expansion would be where the "original war" reignited, but without US involvement - where Peace was gained at the cost of NATO membership, yet then RUS did attack again. But this time, UKR forces are vastly different and mimic current structures/trends/ equipment.

This this this this. If the tank AI can scan and target within 15-30s then the infantry AI should be able to fire and move. I've lost many AT squads to the turn delay and it artificially (yes yes I know the whole thing is artificial) corrupts my "tactics". Well I call them tactics...not desperate flailing at all at all...