Kinophile

Ref Russian official census lies about ethnicity : Long and worth the read for westerners.

Thanks @Haiduk. Keeps is realistic about the ZSU - a lot improved, a lot left to do.

Is this the first major barrage campaign since the fall of Kherson? I don't recall anything similar in scale so far yet....

Man, I have so many questions re Wagner/Prigozhin within the Russian internal power structure. From ISW today: So, A. This, "Wagner Group financier Yevgeniy Prigozhin previously indirectly implied that Wagner forces will train Belgorod Oblast's “people’s militia” in the oblast “to defend the borders of the oblast.” means they will become a future reserve of the WG. B. This, "The battalions’ independent status from the Russian MoD and Prigozhin’s involvement with Belgorod Oblast officials may indicate the battalions’ affiliation with the Wagner Group" is not a "may", the WG are setting up , funding and training this militia. C. This, "Prigozhin, however, denied Wagner’s involvement in training the Belgorod Oblast militia", is obviously an irrelevant lie because - D. this "the presence of some Wagner former servicemen in the area" - there are numerous articles and anecdotes that no one "leaves" the WG. You could get wounded and discharged, but you never actually leave. It's a mafia, a criminal gang with a tank park; you're member for life, no term limits. "former servicemen" means active/latent agents of the WG. Once you're in you never leave. Questions... Why the hell is there a major military formation within Russia that is not beholden to Putin personally, directly? Why does that formation have access to divisional level assets and theater level strike aircraft? Why does that formation have its own, separate & independent R&D facility? Why is it allowed to train its own militia and co-opt the local government within a critical province Russia is an autocracy that has a fully-fledged military, extensive and diverse internal security formations and complete control of the media. The WG seems to be setting up just like the Iranian IRGC - a separate military force with its own economic, political, military & industrial base. The KGB did build up to something similar but more of a politico-military aspect, not so much the economic side. Maybe if they had, they'd have come out of the fall as much more overtly coherent organisation. Is Prig building a literal power base for after Putin? Putin lets him construct his internal power base, with the agreement that Prig will protect Pootler after he steps aside? Prig is far ahead of anyone else except Kadyrov, who has already achieved his own fiefdom. If Ukraine actively breaks the WG, as a functioning military force (full-on HIMARSes its leadership structures, bombs its internal facilities, turns its elites on each other with betrayals/assassinations, etc) then how does that affect Russian internal power politics? How does that affect Pootlers execution of the war, if his "crack" formation is wasted? Is he safe with the MoD? Is the WG a blocking force on the MoD writ large? That is, the MoD cant leave Ukraine if the WG is locked in battle? I've been thinking about this a lot, that the end state of the war is not dependent on battlefield success, but a combination of specific victories against specific Russian formations/power structures. UKR can kill hundreds of thousands of Russians but it simply doesn't matter, because Pootler and his gang simply dont care about Russians. He/They can lie and say anything, crush anyone, with utter impunity, so large numbers of dead Russians is irrelevant. What is relevant is who comes after Putin. I wonder if that's the real game already being played out right now in Russia, and how will it be determined by results in Ukraine.

Poo-tler is a real thing, is my bet.

This. Now that UKR has a proven missile/drone capability to decently accurately hit a target 1000km away, well the next video we see of the Kerch video doing a violent dance-with-no-pants will be pretty unambiguous in its source and definitive in its end result. No matter what was done before, the Kerch's days are numbered.

And a post too far, my friend Ref Steve's further up.... (don't get me wrong - epidemiological, societal and environmental impacts on human development are absolutely my cuppa tae!)

FTW again

https://newlinesmag.com/first-person/what-ukraine-means-for-lithuanians-haunted-by-soviet-past/ This is why Lithuania supports Ukraine, its why Ukraine fights, they know full well what awaits them as an entire society if they let the Ivan win.

Ah k, gotcha

I dunno, Im not convinced that Ukraine has the bandwidth yet to activate another front, into actual ground combat I mean. Even a drone campaign would need to be careful, strictly targeted and working towards some later end state. But drones sent against Belarus are drones not sent against Russian forces in the East. That's for Z&Z to calculate.

Exactly. The vast, vast majority of Western populace know if this war from one liner headlines. They read RUSSIA INVADES UKRAINE and say oh noes, those mean Ivans. Oh well. Then they read UKRAINE ****S UP RUSSIA and they go Oh yay, plucky Ukies! Good on them, I'll stick a UKR flag on my car. Here's some spare change. Yay me. Then they read UKRAINE HITS RUSSIAN STRATEGIC NUCLEAR AIRBASE and they say Wait up, Nuclear? Oh kayyy, ummmm.. Now, if we add in UKRAINE HITS BELSRUSSIAN CITY (totally misrepresented) they say HOLD ON, WHO IS ATTACKING WHOM? I'm confused! Maddening.

@Zeleban I don't think he's say Ukraine has no right, of course it does. Belarus stages Russian troops, trains, arms and feeds them, sends its ammo to kill Ukrainians in the Donbass and let's RUS war planes bomb from its airbases. We all know this and I'm pretty sure Lukashenko is very much on Zaluzhny's To-Do List, the one titled "Asshats To Squish". He's saying, from a military-political POV that expanding the active fighting to another front, one thats geographically directly opposite to the main effort, would have several very major implications: - Splitting the logistics effort - Which implies diluting the Eastern front supply - Removing a valuable quiet prep/rest/refit/training area for UKR troops - Confuse world media attention from the simple clear narrative of Ukraines defensive war against Horrible Orcs to (offensive) War against Horrible Orcs...and Belarussians? Who have nominally not invaded? I personally do think bombing BRUS airbases is perfectly legit and makes Lukashenko vulnerable. If anything, hitting the BRUS fuel supply infrastructure, causing nationwide civilian supply issues, would probably have a very strong negative impact on his support. This would require more RUS troops, a useful trade for cheap & easily run drone campaign. The trick is **** with Lukashenko without over-investing men/supply or activating the border into actual combat.

Well put

Bump. Anyone?

Yes, good steel is. But Komrad Col. General Korruptovich is more interested in his mate Ivan's "specially sourced" steel. That Ivan happens to own a trash dump/breakers yard is just a happy coincidence.

See my post above about why that might be...beneficial...

Yes but look at Oryx's photo - there's visibly a base object that has a "skin" of concrete, no?

Probably the greatest example, and somewhat the only major one. In many ways, it was the right call. The war was already lost, for Holland. Sorta - there was already a very significant portion of the populace against the Iraq War and the Bush Admin in principle. The bombings horrified and shocked many Spanish but it was more within the context of confirmation of their fears against foreign adventures. If the Spanish were more unified in their support of the war then probably less effect. Sorta, again, I believe? From what I've read the Japanese high command was inhumanly disconnected to the suffering of their people. Any reading of their plans for homeland defense against Allied invasion immediately implies human suffering of their own people ona truly gigantic, almost civilizational scale. IMSMR, there was even talk amongst the more extreme Generals that even if just 10% (I think) survived that the Japanese nation could continue on in the mountains and hills and that would count as a win. Theres plenty of discussion that even though the bombs stunned the Japanese leadership, it wasnt from a human, moralistic aspect (the loss of life) but from a militaristic POV - that they had no counter to the weapon, that they themselves' did not have it, that battlefield defeat on the home islands was now far more likely. They would lose the battle and suffer dishonour as a nation was more horrifying than the loss of life. Even then, they were nonetheless still pulling the last of the Manchurian divisions home for defense - but the Soviet attack finally cut that off and worse, implied a communist invasion/takeover of the home islands. And Communism loomed larger in the hidebound Japnese elite's fears than an American superweapon. Only then did Hirohito throw in the towel. Or so my understanding goes.

That looks like concrete plaster on a steel pyramidal box? Maybe we should bear down on the endemic corruption aspect? If we look at these through the eyes of an enterprising supply Col. General Korruptovich, well then: Don't pour full, proper re-barred concrete pyramids. They're heavy and awkward. Need numbers of Private Konskriptoviches. = costly. Bad, very bad. Instead use these...box things...with concrete cast over them - looks just like dragons teeth but lighter. Scale it up to thousands of them and transporting them now uses a lot less fuel than the heavier, fully concrete ones = savings (yay good) You can stack more on a truck, use less trucks and get them to the site quicker = savings (e.g if you charge for 10 trucks but use 6) You can also place them quicker, getting the job "done" with your reduced workforce and crucially photographed sooner. = kudos up the chain, make the bosses look good = CYA in advance Also use unpaid Mobiks so again = more savings So if I wanted to make a tidy sum and I was in charge of making, transporting and placing these...things...then even just off my civvy head there are lots of opportunities to make money and superficially, on paper and in photographs, achieve the desired end result - long lines of "dragon teeth" snaking across the landscape. Everyone's happy, paid off, looks good, state media giving great play to your work, and because there's a war on, further contracts are pretty much a given. Nice. Oh and look, there's talk of doing this on the entire UKR/RUS border...time to do some measurements on ye fiendish Kapitalist google maps...

Nah I suspect you're reading too much into the tea leaves, esp. Re Wagner/bakhmut. Opportunistic political land grab, motivated by cultural chauvinism and an unbridled ego seems more fitting. If resources were the aim then by any measure Russian oligarchy would have economically raped the Donbass, hot cease fire or no. But they didn't, which implies that it was viewed as Putin's playground, his project and not for sharing. Putin has no interest in long term investment or economic exploitation of the Donbass - we know this because he has done othing to foster it. He views it as both a military and cultural front line, the bleeding edge of Ruski Mir, not a plunderable national economic asset.

Oh for the win, for sure. Use of Weapons. The Player of Games. Against A Dark Background. Excession. Any of those Characters and worlds are orders of magnitude more thought out and developed than 3BP and its paper thin, exposition spouting, laughably gender-biased nitwit- I should stop. I stop.

Angry ZSU. Phone guy pans off immediately when the soldier taking photos raises his gun (butt first) and threatens a POW. Angry, energized, post-combat soldiers. Still, disciplined and obeying the rules.

Oooooo

The Engels strike supposedly used Tu-141 recon drones repurposed and armed. https://twitter.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1599815384865337345?t=5Q9EIKOJcruhSfshc6zGlg&s=19