Kinophile

Those shahedsate increasing the burn rate of UKR SAM stocks. Not much yet, but not hard for them to increase. And we know there's more on the way. If course, this tactic is a double edged sword...

https://www.kyivpost.com/world/two-top-russian-officials-defect-seek-asylum-in-france.html I've no idea how reliable the KP is.

Atacams

LOL perfect coda

Ref steel pan, my posted pictures earlier corroborate that: The poured concrete must have rebar in it otherwise it would rapidly (ie just months) crumble apart under the pressure, expansion contraction and vibrations (the photos so far do indicate its in fine condition other that the struck areas). Im not saying its a wasted attack as such, it obviously had a great effect and the political timing was just *MWAH!*. I just want to see more than a one off strike.

Lmao So true.

The second UKR is often the actual boot that does the real a$$-kicking.

Ah yes, more quality NCO action, shutting down the hazing and building a strong, cohesive team spirit built on mutual respect and professional leadership. Oh wait.

See, this is yet another reason I'm conflicted on a truck bomb, or possibly that if UKR did the attack with a VBIED that it was one time, opportunistic attack and not a beginning of a campaign (like we saw with Saki). I want it to be a missile because that would signal the start of a campaign but there's been no follow up and no missile debris found (that we know of). The railway is a tougher construction, but if you can take out some pillars it's a hugely complicated task to repair. The best place to hit is definitely the actual bridge span itself, as that's enormously hard to fix. UKR would absolutely have known that any damage to the main road/rail sections is repairable. Even the crazy bottle necks now will eventually clear. If you're going to hit the Kerch it's gonna take a campaign - hit the bridge span, then hit the specialised repair equipment and personnel (sorry Russian Engies not sorry) then hit the approach spans, hit the repair crews and gear for that. Basically, make the biggest initial mess you can then hit the clean up crews. And keep doing it, for weeks. Thats exactly what UKR did and continues to do at Kherson and I'm very sceptical they would waste a chance on the Kerch with a random truck bomb.

Oh very cool

@chrisl fascinating, thank you. Details always matter...

I'm still a Missile Boi

Jesus Christ, it's like as if the Marines were owned by Peter Thiel.

Nick Cage as Putler Stalinovich

Amazing!

Exactly, thats why HIMARs could smash holes in it but it was like a pen punching holes through corrugated cardboard. Plus, Antonovsky Bridge built mid-80s I believe, when reinforced concrete was very much the primary construction method, esp in USSR. It was built to last, possibly even to weather a nuclear strike to some degree (we know that the south Ukraine coast was a NATO target area). Ref the Kerch, I noticed that also, the heavy rebar sections down lower. The all metal construction of the parts we've seen ripped away are possibly to reduce weight on tall piers that are already sitting on unreliable ground. The support columns get taller as the road ramps up to the bridge - so more concrete, so more weight on the top and if the foundations are not 100% ideal then using a metal construction for the road surface would reduce weight at the very top of the piers, relieving oppositional lateral force at the the very base of the entire pier/column construction. This suggests that the UKR attack deliberately hit a section of the bridge that was specifically designed to be lighter, and hence less resistant to a blast from a shockwave. A better constructed bridge would have absorbed the blast wave and immediately transferred it down the piers; but the pier construction is suspect. Re-bar doesnt just strengthen a construction, they also act as lines of force transference with a structure, like highways for energy to pass along. Its possible the pier's design and construction failed to properly transfer the blastwave's energy down to the sea bed and instead actually bounced it back up into the spans, popping them off their meagre pinnings, as @chrisl noted previously.

Its not all-metal, its reinforced concrete beams with steel trussing spanning the gap and steel decking to tie the cross section together. There's plenty of all-steel littoral bridges in existence,it just requires extra maintenance, better construction and very good weather protection, e.g using the structure itself to shield vulnerable points, multiple layers of varied types of surface protection. The maintenance aspect is the real make or break; as you note, water environments (esp. saline bodies of water) are super corrosive and abrasive. Skimp on maintenance and structural damage/failure is absolutely inevitable.

I've been looking for AutoCAD dwgs of the bridge for days, to no avail. Usually with a large infrastructure project like this you'll find studies and sometimes even the actual construction drawings. Engineering or Architectural journals will do an article on the thing, with some stripped down cross sections, plans, etc, maybe an interview with the Engineer/Architect. With the Kerch - nothing. Nada. Not a good sign at all when engineers attached to a project either 1) don't want to talk about it or 2) are not allowed to. Still, there are enough photos from the construction that can give a good idea of how it was slapped together, e.g.: Thats the railway span on the right. Better over-head view of the railbed construction. The above image gives a good sense of just how far apart the road & railway sections are. I assume the lower roadway in the above pic is just a construction access road, removed after completion. Above gives your basic concrete &steel beam/platform construction. Typical road section.

I know, I was playing along

Molten ice..... You jest, sir.

? Yes wind. Stiff littoral breeze. Termite chunks would rapidly descend. It's wind pushing water droplets/spray from both the blast and the road segments hitting the water surface.

No (or too little) rebar in a primary load bearing structure, built on unreliable and quake prone ground conditions. That aggregate looks off too. TiR.

There must be more to it. They had 8 years in front of Donetsk.

That's just the wind direction.,no? Standard stuff wind in a coastal strait type.

Not quite the same - Himmler had nothing like the military intent or acumen of Prigozhin. He was a technocrat, stuffed in an over-tight uniform. I don't believe the average Waffen SS would have died for Himmler himself, personally; where as we have recorded conversations of Wagnerites declaring specifically for Prigozhin over Putin. For an autocrat to have one of his more effective military forces developing a loyalty complex away from the Supreme Leader strikes me as very dangerous (for the SL). WSS had a clear ideology, very distinctly found, formed and tied to Hitler personally. He was its emotional and ideological center of gravity. Himmler had operational control, but Hitler had trumps when it came to loyalty. Its this difference that I'm highlighting - that Hitler created competing factions and armed forces (as all autocrats do), but all within a deep ideological framework that Hitler himself conceived, developed, controlled and directly lead. Putin doesnt have that, his state "ideology" is more a vague blend of general nationalism and inferiority complex overcompensation, which itslef seems to be in the process of being co-opted by more extreme elements in RUS society; by contrast Hitler was the extreme of the extremists - there was no one further "out there" than him, which meant he could not be ideologically out-maneuvered. But Putin seems to be chasing the approval of certain power centers and ideological strands in Russian society, rather than creating and defining the framework for everyone else to stay within. He's great at creating legal and beauracratic trickery to keep everyone in place, but at somepoint the ideological fanatics just wont care for that stuff. He's a spy, an inside man, a "system of systems" guy. Hitler was an outsider, highly emotional and extremely imaginative, with a very charged personality that motivated others around him and fundamentally infused his ideology. Putin does not have that charisma or energy - and I'm at the point where I think Putin is extremely vulnerable to a charismatic, ideologically "pure" (and younger!) rival emerging from this disastrous war of his own creation. I could easily see Wagner mercs fighting off any attempt by the FSB to arrest or mess with Prigozhin. The WSS would never, ever have gone against Hitler in favour of Himmler.