Kinophile
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Posts
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Days Won
22
Posts posted by Kinophile
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1 hour ago, Beleg85 said:
Putin very visibly blamed US in his speech ("by hands of Kyiv regime"- note, Ukraine is only triggerman here) and in Russian imperial psyche it is not disgraceful to be smashed by superior Yanks. In other words, it was planned and executed by CIA- earlier US warnings will only support this line of thinking. They are read as threats rather than genuine information, even if we actually know now they were taken seriously in many places in Russia:
https://twitter.com/PjotrSauer/status/1772268163775840437
I am pretty sure that as time goes by we will see more "evidence" and propagandists in Russia and abroad will gradually work on minds of populace. 1-2 years from now heads of half of them will be in this strange, shadowy place Kremlin loves to be in- "Who knows, it's mysterious matter, everybody lies but most probably it's foreign agents".
Unless more similar acts will follow on behalf of IS-K, and fast, original simple message of islamic terror will be bended, broken and reforged dozen times. Also Kremlin propaganda will be multi-directed like always: Margo Simonyan, Solovyov and other scum will work on Ukraine trace (latter probably soon find out extra lead to UK anyway), Putin will wrestle with heroic geopolitical fight with USA (UA is beyond his dignity), Kadyrov will keep unruly parts of muslims for their faces and perhaps only Lavrov will have new tool to show how Russia suffers from US-sponsored jihadi menace, with wink sended here and there that perhaps they could use it as platform of further cooperation like proper empires should do.
Things will then likely gradually go back to its natural life cycle in Muscovia. Tsar is taking care fo its flock at the Kremlin, evil nazis are in Ukraine, globalists interests kept outside and their domestic opposition assets jailed. Like God commanded.
I'm surprised Boris Johnson isn't in any of those crowd photos...
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I've noted before my intimation that the full reform of the Ukrainian military is where its true strategic victory lies - and not into the standard Western /NATO model but true reform that keeps what works from the old, Soviet model combined and transformed into a unique hybrid. I suspect that a military which reflects the the nature of and enables the latent power of the transformed society it springs from will be finally secure from Russia.
As an inveterate autocracy, with the particular geography it contains, Russia will only ever have the type of military it's ever had - mass and power.
Ukraine, being a society that is something more and different, has a generational opportunity to create a unique defence force.
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1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:
Hitting something in Kharkiv is going to be easier than hitting something in Lviv. At least that's what the logic of deviation would indicate.
For sure Russia is able to hit some critical infrastructure, but the success rate is still extremely small. How many transformers and LUCH type successes have they had for the thousands of missile/drones launched over the last 2 years? By comparison it seems Ukraine has hit more critical Russian infrastructure in the last month than Russia has in this whole war.
Probably one reason Kharkiv was vulnerable to such an attack is the cumulative loss of infrastructure to attacks over the past two years. Redundancy is never great in public infrastructure due to costs, so it's not like they have to knock out much to have an impact. Yet when Russia tried to do a country wide shutdown of the grid it didn't work.
Steve
To be clear, Im not in the Russia Is Now Unbeatable camp. Just need that to be understood up front.
I'm saying their strike capability has improved, slowly and patchily, but they have improved. They have had a string of strike successes in the last six months and while It's abysmal compared to what they should have, it's still improving.
Critically, there's no counter-pressure on that. The success rate will trend inevitably up as experience is gained, systems improved and tactics honed.
Often in this war whatever Rus starts to improve on, UKR finds a counter to, either organically with what they have or ekse provided by allies.
But as a data point on a slowly improving line that's curving steadily up, not down, the concerted, concentrated and rapid destruction of a large city's electrical network is not small. Its repeatable and Improvable.
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1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:
2. Their tech and ISR are embarrassingly bad. The more specific their targets, the more obvious it is they can't hit what they aim for. That's not a good message to put out there.
But certainly improved. Taking out Kharkivs city wide network was pretty efficiently done. The trend is shifting up for them and very unlikely to stop doing so.
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Weeeeeeeee!
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https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-23-2024
Interesting note from Bahkmut:
QuoteA Ukrainian battalion commander operating in the Bakhmut direction stated that Russian forces are conducting assaults using mechanized vehicles for fire cover and to transport infantry to the front line but noted that Ukrainian forces are able to inflict significant manpower and equipment losses on Russian troops.[42] The Ukrainian battalion commander reported that Ukrainian forces currently disable 60 to 70 percent of vehicles that Russian forces field in assaults near Bakhmut.
JFC.
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Ship hit also?
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6 hours ago, Letter from Prague said:
I don't think this is reliable information, because I don't think Medvedev is never not
thisdrunk and high.Fixed that fer ye
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Major terrorist attack (gunmen) underway in Moscow. Not posting footage, it's horrible. 4 x Gunmen, don't look Ukrainian, darker skins, so not a false flag op.
Those US/UK embassy warnings weren't kidding.
Almost two hours later, Spec Forces still not on scene. Building is fully on fire.
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Aaannnd...
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Yup. I hope it's "not good" for you in the most totally "not good" way possible.
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10 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:
Harumph! Richard Chamberlain: accept no substitutes! (he's dreamy)
Fare thee well O ye Barbary merchants....
OT, but I know one of the DPs from the new version. It's done a really good job. He spoke very highly of the creative process.
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Interesting.
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4 minutes ago, hcrof said:
What about one of these:
It certainly won't stop a bullet (bullets are really good at penetrating stuff!) but will support enough soil to do so and is super quick to install.
But it would remain a niche use case since wood is cheaper and less flammable...
The width of that trench is the aspect in that video. But It's not a bad idea...
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52 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:
Will glorified Jersey barriers shrug off 122/152mm? Hell no. But it appears that's *not* what's mostly killing the Ukie grunts at this moment.
I'm not sure about this - FPVs are certainly doing a lot of damage, but it was artillery & glide bombs that were the drivers for UKR to get out of Avdiivka. Shelling still happens constantly and a bunker that can resist shelling can resist an FPV. The entrance is the weakpoint, which could be countered by layer physical and EW aspects - eg, a right angle in the entrance hallway, some very short range but powerful jammer at the entrance and decent door?
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14 minutes ago, Haiduk said:
Several days ago Russian media reported about strange incident - fire with victims on the board of trawler "Capitan Lobanov". As became knowingly the vessel was mistakingly hit by the missile during Baltic Fleet practice shooting. As result of incident three sailors were killed, four wounded.
Interesting, that this trawler already had "experience" of sinking, but this happened in the port and it was raised up and repaired. The fate.
"Final Destination" 2024
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44 minutes ago, Haiduk said:
This war showed many things, which considered before as impossible became real. There were several cases of cruise missiles downning with HMGs. Yes, if the missile flies with a speed 200 m/s under 90 degrees from your position, your chances are almost zero. But if missile incoming directly to you, your chances raise, especially when your HMG equipped with thermal sight. All question - to give mobile group a proper engagement point. Mobile groups as usual had PDA with "Virazh" AD info system, transmitting trajectories of missiles, so the group can move and take proper position.
Also, pay attention, on this video you can see only HMG shooting and missile explosion, no incoming SAM, chasing the cruise missile and hitting it.
Scheme of today's attack
Very interesting, thank you.
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50 minutes ago, hcrof said:
Remember plastic is very flammable so not good in combat - you would need a different material. Buildings are BIG and use a lot of material, so 3d printing is not going to beat mass production economically except for some quite specialised use cases. (This is a big subject that I have studied but I don't want to go OT)
I am no expert on Kevlar but in construction carbon fibre is sometimes used - the downsides are that 1) steel offers most of the performance and a fraction of the price and 2) it burns. It ends up used in very specialised cases only.
The other reason why steel is almost always going to be best in "dynamic situations" is that it fails very gracefully by bending rather than snapping. Modern steels (even low grade construction steel) are really good and really cheap so very difficult to beat, especially if they are surrounded by concrete for fire protection and extra mass.
Basically the "best" bunker for mass production is likely what we have already seen - factory made reinforced concrete panels, welded together on site then covered in soil. Cheap, quick to assemble and robust (at least for a few years before they start to rust due to sloppy construction)
Are they done in panels, or complete sections? I've seen videos of formed concrete being placed into deep construction trenches - they landed onto concrete slab floors but the sides and roof were all one piece, with thickened wall corners and ceiling joints.
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14 minutes ago, Haiduk said:
Kh-101, intercepted in Kyiv oblast this morning with Browning HMG by mobile AD group
Seems a bit far away for a HMG to be accurate enough to catch a missile going at least 200 m/s...
ninja'd by panzermartin
How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?
in Combat Mission Black Sea
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