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Kinophile

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Posts posted by Kinophile

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted

    1 minute ago, Harmon Rabb said:

    Maybe an unpopular opinion but I don't mind users with lets call them "alternative views" posting here once in a while.

    The responses those posts get show just how hollow these kind of arguments really are.

    Have a great day everyone. 🙃

    You're not wrong, they do tend to help clarify some things via how people respond to their emotional conjecture with simple analysis. 

    But after the first wall of text... :rolleyes:

    1

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted

    30 minutes ago, sfhand said:

    And there in lies the rub.

    I don't think this thread is the Magnum Opus of the war. I know you and a lot of similar minded people spent countless hours writing it and think it is more right than wrong, if not 100% right, one poster even said Historians will reference it. That sounds an awful lot like hubris to me, but what do I know, time will tell.

    And yes, this mindset does remind me of this place during the Iraq war, hat tip to panzermartin.

    Since you choose to brand me as a troll it is clear what you have in mind. As a result I will leave this thread and most likely the forum with the knowledge that my opinion only matters to you when I support your business or when I agree with your politics. Note to those who can't differentiate between one stating their intended course of action and a promise, this is not a promise.

    You have a great day Steve, I'm out. (my consistent use of this type parting remark is intended to convey that I respect you as a human being and that we are all more than what we write on the internet, apparently I am alone in this thinking as well)

     

     

     

    Promises, promises... 

    0

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted

    3 hours ago, The_Capt said:

    So out of that entire wall of text this is really the only point made about the core subject of this entire thread.  The rest is as was noted, “meta”.  Again, no citations, no analysis, no insight…simply “wot I think”.  Fine, everyone is entitled to their opinion, no matter how well or poorly informed.

    Let’s unpack this one kernel of an actual relevant opinion. First off “absurd”.  So this statement appears to suggest that anyone who thinks otherwise is lost in a sea of misinformation.  It is clearly “obvious” that Ukraine is losing, or at least Russia is not.  You seem to be referring to the recent retaking of Adiivka and Russian winter offensive as proof of this. You also seem to infer that we are deluding ourselves otherwise - hence this whole “what is the truth?” thing.

    So, if you have indeed been following this thread, you will have noted that the state of each party of this war has been a subject of intense debate. We have had plenty of injects that Ukraine is losing, on the edge of collapse and Adiivka is the “beginning of the end”.  We have had the counter opinion as well.

    But let’s just unpack your central position: advancing while your opponent is retreating is a clear sign of winning. [note: you do see the irony of your heuristics argument here, right?] Any student of warfare can come up with dozens of historical examples of this position being simply untrue. A military is a very large complex machine that can still conduct offensive operations even though it is fundamentally broken - Germany 1918, Germany 1944-45, US 1950, US 1969 to name but a few.  So to take one tactical offensive, which has been gained at very high cost (or were all those casualties a “false-flag” operation with crisis actor tanks and IFVs?), as “absolute proof” that Russia is indeed not losing this war clearly demonstrates that you are taking a single phenomenon out of context and drawing a broad conclusion.

    So rather than us trying to prove to you, which is always how these things tend to go, let’s go the other way. Why don’t you do the work and prove it to us?  What is the state of the Russian military? Tactically, Operationally and Strategically?  What is the state of the Ukrainian military?  Based on your assessment, how will the war likely progress?  How do the answers to those questions inform future policy?  What should those policies be? Most importantly, how can this war end positively for the West?  What are the risks and opportunities?

    Now before you start typing, and I am betting you already think you know answers to these questions, we are going to need to see proof of work.  No more vague, “but the truth is unknowable” smoke screen.  You clearly have an opinion and one would hope it has been informed.  So state the facts you are employing to come to it. Cite some expertise beyond your own that supports your position.  Even those trapped in that damned cave have shadows they can make reference to.

    I am very doubtful you will do any of this to be blunt. The fact that looking up a legal definition of genocide was somehow “only for lawyers and too much work” kinda situates the depths you are willing to go in all this:

    https://www.un.org/en/genocideprevention/genocide.shtml

    https://www.un.org/en/genocideprevention/documents/Genocide Convention-FactSheet-ENG.pdf

    (that took about 2 mins).

    So to echo your own sentiment - I really do not care what you think you know or don’t know at this point.  You have demonstrated no expertise, or leveraging of expertise in any of whatever this has been about.  You have employed classic use of “empty uncertainty” by throwing around some pretty junior philosophy and zero actual facts. You are not a military or political analyst, that much is clear.  And you do not contribute by pulling in new information.

    So far you have come onto this thread with “doubt” as a form of offence - you really have not come with honest questions in search of answers…you already have all the answers you want. You basically attacked the regulars on this thread with this uncertainty and then have done the “wounded dove” act as you get pushback. You have to be at least the dozenth person to do this, and you did not even come up with an original spin. Same pattern as every other time - throw out an inflammatory unsupported counter opinion, dance around facts and dress it up as “being real”, act all hurt when you get mauled.  Now you will disappear into the woodwork to avoid the ban, or jump off the bridge because this is your hill to die upon for some reason.

    Or maybe, just maybe, you will go away for awhile and come back with some new facts that create a coherent argument we can actually debate.  I would be both shocked and delighted of this were the case.  

    BLUF:

    "You're a troll. Prove otherwise."

    2

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted · Edited by Kinophile

    3 hours ago, sfhand said:

    My plan is to have this be my only post in this thread... 

    That's a great idea!

    The rest of it is infantile, whiney drivel, so you're really doing everyone a favour by limiting your stable genius to one glorious post.

    Of course, you could have not posted at all - that's an even better idea! 

    The latter is mine but you can have it, gratis. Sorry, too many syllables - Free. 

    2

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted

    1 hour ago, sburke said:

    Putin's invasion plans were formulated on Hunter Biden's laptop.  They were created while he and George Soros were vacationing at Jeffery Epstein's place at the same time that Hilary Clinton was discussing a marketing plan with Epstein to use a Pizza place as a front for child trafficking.  I seem to remember this was close to the same time Jewish Space lasers were lighting up California forests because we hadn't properly raked them like they do in Finland.  I remember all this because right about then I was sticking light bulbs up my anus to kill Covid.

    See it all makes sense now right?

    And behind it all - BORIS JOHNSON 

    2

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted · Edited by Kinophile

    Syrsky continues saying the right things...

    Reform is very much on his mind. He seems to have the combat vet's intolerance of REMFs, especially in an existential fight like this one. 

    https://www.ukrinform.ua/rubric-ato/3845632-oleksandr-sirskij-golovnovnokomanduvac-zsu.html

    Quote

    Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi published an interview with Ukrinform, some theses:  

    - Just in February-March of this year (as of March 26), the enemy lost more than 570 tanks, about 1,430 armored combat vehicles, almost 1,680 artillery systems and 64 air defense systems.  - Enemy activity in the air was also reduced thanks to the skill of our air defense units. In just 10 days in February, they shot down 13 enemy aircraft, including two strategically important A50 surveillance and control aircraft. We hope to receive from our partners more air defense systems and, most importantly, missiles for them.  

    - Valery Fedorovich Zaluzhnyi and I worked side by side during the most difficult times since the beginning of the Russian full-scale invasion, and even before. We worked as one team. I wish him success in his new and very responsible position.  

    - I can confirm that the composition of the General Staff and other military command and control bodies will be updated with combat officers with extensive practical experience in combat operations, which they acquired on the fields of this war.  

    - Today the process of rotation of military units on the front line has already been launched, which allows us to fully restore the combat effectiveness of not only equipment, but above all to ensure the rest and recovery of our military personnel. To ensure this process we need people. That is why I would like every person of military age in Ukraine to realize that it depends on his will and actions for Ukraine to survive.  

    - Ukrainians continue to defend their country, in particular when returning from abroad. We have a lot of volunteers, and this is not an exaggeration. I am not saying that there are no problems, but I emphasize that we are doing everything to solve them.  

    - We are currently reviewing the strength of certain units not participating in combat operations based on an audit of their activities. This allowed us to release thousands of troops and send them to combat units.  

    - We withdrew our forces from Avdiivka because the enemy had a significant advantage in the forces and means of assault units. Due to constant bombardment by guided aerial bombs, the integrity of our defenses was compromised, which allowed the enemy to gradually advance forward. The insufficient amount of ammunition for our artillery also played a negative role. This did not allow effective counter-battery warfare under such conditions. To avoid encirclement and save people’s lives, I decided to leave Avdiivka.  

    - We cannot ignore any information about the enemy's preparation for offensive actions, so we are taking all measures to adequately respond to such a possibility. Today we are carrying out a large complex of works on fortification equipment of territories and positions.  We already have experience in combat operations in the Kharkiv region, we managed to “calculate” the enemy and liberate a significant part of the Kharkiv region. At this time, a large-scale collapse of the Russian front occurred. If the Russians go there again, Kharkiv will become a fatal city for them.  

    - We are very grateful to our Western allies, NATO countries, the European Union and other partners for their support. Without such support, without the supply of weapons, ammunition, air defense systems, and heavy equipment, it would be much more difficult for us to fight an insidious and powerful enemy. The latest case is Avdeevka. We would, of course, maintain these positions if we had a sufficient number, first of all, of air defense systems and artillery shells. This is not a complaint, but a statement of fact.  

    - We can mention the rearmament of artillery units with the domestic 155-mm Bogdan cannon, while simultaneously equipping it with an automatic fire guidance system. Soon, we can expect that some samples of Western howitzers and domestic rifled mortars will be produced in Ukraine. Another good example is the restoration and overhaul of American-made M777 howitzers. We have established production of some of these parts here in Ukraine. In particular, when restoring each unit of this howitzer, 40 percent of the parts and spare parts manufactured for the needs of the Armed Forces of Ukraine at domestic enterprises are used.

    Damn right too. 

    3

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted · Edited by Kinophile

    2 hours ago, The_Capt said:

    So this is where “AI hype” has led us. Note: this is using the broadest definition of AI.  Many would simply call it non-human processing power.  The combination of ISR, communication and precision has been the driver of this current “tactical crisis” - which has resulted in operational stalemate, strategic/political anxiety and industrial strain.

    What I do not know is how deep this will go.  Can it be solved in this war?  Or is this enduring new reality?  My best guess is that more weaponized AI in the form of a forward unmanned envelop is the answer, but that is not proven.  We need to really see proof that “mass precision beats everything”.

    I wonder though, How does massed precision beat opposing massed precision?

    Faster Detection, Analysis, Fires, Observation loop? 

    If feels that if any one part of that is faster than the enemy's then their advantage can propagate across all four, through attrition, scale and pace of events, until the enemy compensates. Do it fast enough and the enemy's older formatting becomes a critical weakness. Obviously this is a primary nature of warfare already but the pace and rapidity of scale effects across multiple domains simultaneously is something different. 

    Not looking for a solve, more observation/discussion of potentials. 

    1

    Unlimited Mission Time

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted · Edited by Kinophile

    7 hours ago, Erwin said:

    Not sure about that...  The Abrams, Leopards and Bradleys already sent do not appear to have had much effect as they are vulnerable to the new warfare being practiced.  Large armored formations sweeping across the Ukraine plains is akin to the WW1 dreams of horse cavalry sweeping across the plains.

    Ah now. Your tarring me with a very broad brush. I specifically noted AFVs as a possibly better option than 60t MBTs. It's well documented how effective the Brad's and CV90s have been, with the CVs barracuda coat being especially praised (and its oven!) and the Brads survivability and sensors being top notch. 

    I also did not suggest large mech formations as a viable options. More flexible, dispersed mechanized formations tied into vertically and horizontally integrated ISR & Fires networks are one future path, but certainly not large concentrated metal mass "sweeping across the plains". Come on, now. 

    Maybe my Irony was too subtle and oblique... 

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