Kinophile

Yes, but the sea, the moon,, wind and tides still move? Just spitballing here, but: Destroying an oil tanker's ability to control itself is asking for a gigantic environmental disaster. Sure yes, but tug boats. Maybe. If they can get there in time and are strong enough, and it's good weather, and local prevailing winds keep the ships away from shore. And nothing else is happening. Blyat,, that's a few too many IFs for me...

Really?

Huh, I have m-tac pants, for on set. Great gear. Didn't realize they were UKR!

2024's funniest put-down so far. The threshold has been raised... Sorry @dan/california, but...

Drone launches from UKR sea drones are next, is my 2024 prediction

Doh. of course you're correct. I blame the Mayan tequila swilling through me!

Yep. Also, ref Rotterdam, who the only reason it worked was that Belgium had no useful defense or means of striking back. If a nation feels it can defend or at least improve its defences then it will do so and the morale impact is lost. Germany, Canada Britain in WW2, QED. Russia absolutely can absorb and defend, so zero chance of any morale impact. Ukraine now has the defences and has the will. But it's dependent on western supply. So Russia is trying use up that supply with increased and sustained rate of fire. But even that is not doing much because Russia doesn't seem to have enough missiles itself, nor does it seem to have the ISR to hit western supplies as they land/transport in.

Well, they will and they will, modern tactical ISR being what it is

Yup, true. Still, the pattern of the campaign could point to the Black Sea grain corridor, with the partial dismantling of Crimea's defenses as a means to an end rather than the end in itself.

Yes, for now. But has Russia has played its winter missile campaign card yet? The Patriots can always be redeployed again.

Not beng facetious, but deploying a Patriot battery south and away from defending cities would not be a solo event, right? It would be a strategic decision and part of a much bigger shift in operations. Preceded by smaller related and varied ops and enabling much larger ones once in place? Like, say, the quiet, staged deployment of F16s? Doesnt that fit the observed pace, pattern and results table of the UKR operations along Black Sea Coast and Kherson in AO? Pushing the patriots south is not just shifting an AD capability - it implies leaving somewhere else undefended, so doing so must be worth it. Defending a critical national-level economic asset would fit that bill nicely. A blocked sea-borne grain export is a state viability disaster. So the creation and protection of a viable grain corridor is arguably Ukraine's greatest strategic victory of 2024. It guarantees a serious portion of state income, improves geopolitical credibility and signals theatre level military capability. Russia tried to prevent it and failed completely. Ukraine won the economic breathing space to live another year. This idea suggests that Crimea/Kerch bridge has been a red herring all year, in a way. The southern AA/AD campaign, multi domain and all, has really just been about one thing: "the economy, stupid." It helps explain the low use of scalps etc, ie husbanding them in case of a determined Russian push against the grain corridor. Next year, I suspect, will be really about the relentless murder of the Russian BSF and isolation of Crimea.

@Chibot Mk IX, interesting quote. There's an odd little note in there, namely: A guide? To whom? Is he misreading something? Why on earth would anyone place flags in front of their lines? Doing so is dangerous, it highlights your lines (duh) and if you're UKR then you already know where your lines are and you certainly don't want to advertise to RUS. Odd.

Mmmm Tatarigami posted a very long interview with a female UKR volunteer, Yana. Her website The Russian Invasion of Ukraine: A Personal Account of the Battle for Avdiivka by 28-Year-Old Ukrainian Volunteer Yana

Superb, thank you @Zeleban

https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-combat-medics-life-saving-breakthroughs/32695540.html

"See? This is why you can't have nice things..."

But look at the spread. What a pointless waste of ammo. Woop di doo, harassing fire that serves nothing more than background noise. This is a dumb as many Russian efforts.

Nothing to see here but us beavers...

Cripes, I didnt realize how fast and far it went. Mental.