Kinophile

https://en.defence-ua.com/news/ukraines_himars_and_m270_will_fire_twice_as_far_with_new_glsdb_precision_bombs_delivered_this_winter-8240.html

Rural landholdings have never and will never equal the raw wealth generation of external trade. They provide source for ET and some demand, but if there's any kind of external trading then farming takes a back seat. Every ruling class always takes control (direct or indirect) of the food production network, but to stay there and to expand they need external trade. I think Farms beget towns, but Trade begets empires.

Tatarigami again on Avdiivka, in depth look.

that 50k "army" was anything but, and certainly not the punching force it was made out to be. It was, i believe? used up to a good degree in the Kremina theatre, and is now just dissipated across the northern lines/

https://en.defence-ua.com/news/ukraines_air_force_showed_the_operation_of_british_supacat_asraam_frankensam_for_the_first_time_video-8226.html Soviet era AAD firing ASRAAM. Madness! Plus, Norway being sensible about heavy tanks v AAD https://www.thedefensepost.com/2023/10/12/norway-leopard-air-defense/

Copy.

Initial reports were of several battalions, no?

Tatarigami has a pass at Avdiivka RUS losses. TLDR, minimum 45 vehicles destroyed, without yet counting the Southern flank attack losses. Now, I'm Not Mil, or ex Mil, but that seems very like a large formation (almost a NATO brigade?) charging into its own annihilation. BTW, another reason for Avdiivka as a selection might be that any ZSU counter-offensive would quickly hit the immediate suburbs of Donetsk and instantly stop.

Avdiivka.

Yeah, @Butschi, there's certainly now an inbuilt inertia to the momentum of support. While EU has given a lot, would it be as much without, Tbh, Biden? Still, @The_Capts point stands by itself, that a defensive posture is a sword which cuts both ways. Bakhmut, Kremina, Etc all prove that Ukraine can defend itself. My worry is that Putin is 100% commited, but the level of Western support is variable in time, quantity and geography. As a film 1AD I hate uncertain variables that are subject to other people's whims! Give me the wobblies, they do.

Copy. That's accurate to my line of thought and gives a better clarity, thank you. They can certainly hold their own defense and I'd suspect a "Zaluzhny Line" would be orders of magnitude more lethal than Surovikins standard approach. Witness how the Andriivka etc is still held by ZSU, then format that through ZSU, v.2024. I guess it'll come down to Crimea, as always.

US support is the Achilles heel of Ukraines war effort. Who will they rely on after that? Scholz and his successor ilk? Yer havin a laff, guvnor. NATO doesn't control spending or decide support. It's a function of the participant democracies, and while it's lovely that Denmark and others are throwing everything in, they have limited arsenals, production and capabilities. UK and Poland are critical and I doubt will budge, but is that enough? Every barrel has a bottom. The support given so far has resulted in UKR holding the RUS, but they are not defeated and it'll take minimum two years at current levels of US support. Drop that level to what DT et al have talked about and where does UKR stand? I'm not on the Omg RUS is Overpowering. But UKR war effort is highly vulnerable to political whims in a way that RUS is not. They can fight like maniacs all they want but if there is insufficient or unstable resupply of high tech weaponry and ISR then frankly, they're ****ed. That resupply occupies Zelensky etcs every waking hour.

But, they're not. Isn't that why we spent umpteen pages on WTF Will Congress Do? The wrong US President with the wrong Congress and Senate are the death knell of Russian defeat. It's sounds big (all three branches) but Republicans have Congress, odds are high they'll keep it, Senate is one geriatric death away from deadlock and the Presidency is functionally a toss up. Biden won by a slim margin, and its 100% not certain Dem's will hold what they have. Ergo Russia's success is not not-zero. It's well above and they are actively working towards a friendly/un-interested Administration. Im not saying this to start a US Pols death spiral again but your statement above is functionally incorrect.

https://www.defensenews.com/land/2023/10/09/uncertain-fate-for-active-protection-on-armys-combat-vehicles/ The interesting part is halfway down, WRT Iron Fist:

Infomative.

It's really not tricky. 2008 Georgia and 2014 Ukraine were limited wars with limited objectives, and limited effects on the Order Of Things - so, limited reactions. This war throws out every limit. While it is nominally limited geographically its certainly not limited in its geopolitical ramifications and implications. So, very much not limited reaction but also limited in certain scopes (no direct boots on ground). Canada is 110% invested in the Current Order Of Things, as is the US. Ergo, support.

Definitely a smell of fevered dreams on here over the last few days...

Dunno if already posted

Man, people read Neuromancer once and miss the point. Screaming Fist wasn't a success, Hamas. It gave Wintermute its in with Armitage/Corto....

Philip P O'Brien is joining CSIS. Good on him.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/germany-provide-ukraine-with-an-additional-patriot-air-defence-system-scholz-2023-10-05/

https://mil.in.ua/en/news/rheinmetall-books-major-order-for-155mm-artillery-ammunition-to-ukraine/ Rheinmetall has seen the massive business opportunity and has been diving in hard.