Kinophile

I wonder if its not possible to stage several drones at the end of a runway and simply fly them directly at whatever starts to take off, like mechanical bird strikes.

https://bulgarianmilitary.com/amp/2024/01/14/mig-31s-cripple-ukrainian-production-of-155mm-and-152mm-shells/ Feels like a bull**** piece placed by useful idiots, eg "utter system failure"! Goodness gracious. Very exciting.

His opinion. Open to rebuttal...

Russian repeater drone review

Taking bets on its life span. I say Six months.

Taking bets on its life span. I say Six months.

It definitely feels like the very next step, achievable this year and does what you note, that the drones need to be freed to be properly effective at scale. The pressure of war is driving the tech along faster and faster. The AI is there already to autonomously target and destroy, there's videos from the Russians doing so, so I doubt UKR is far behind.

lol Havent read XKCD in ages, damn you now I'm constantly clicking next

I think you're right; at 31/32 you can clearly see the turret, no barrel, plus the explosion is very broad and extremely large, versus the more vertical classic T72/90 boom. Theres an IFV (BMP?) just in front of it and to left, I think that blows up too. Also, at 00:35 on right hand frame you can see what could be the launcher box itself cartwheeling through the air.

Yeah, "wow" can be a easily misread as sarcasm, but I Guess I've mentally shaved the guard off my triggers this morning. Damn, Mexico was supposed to relax me! All good my friend

nexuses, but it just sounds nasty. Copy you, all points.

Well, to start - a lot of those were shaping/recon ops for a massive amphibious invasion and follow-on ground war. Dieppe was in many ways a test, a bloody one but that directly informed later ops to huge allied benefit. Every SOF operation did something useful, with varying results. Some were hugely important but relatively tiny - eg the sinking of a ferry carrying German (well, Norwegian ) heavy water before it could be used for an atomic bomb. See, I can read Wikipedia; well really, I read actual books about this stuff about three decades ago and ever since. So no, I don't consider any of them useless, but I'll posit your comparison is. A better comparison might be the German effort in North Africa, where the front was existential for the Brits but strategically opportunistic for the Nazis. There SOF raids had actual impact, outsized for the forces involved and were very difficult for the the Afrika Korps to defend against. But that flips the analysis backwards, as it's Ukraine opportunistically and with low investment attacking a strategic Russian priority. I was initially skeptical that what Ukraine has going on in Africa is having a strategic military effect; but I noted ref Russian elites being sensitive to effects from Africa and as @The_Capt has pointed out much more clearly, its more likely a geopolitical signalling effort, with effects that are currently unseeable at our worms-eye level. Using this framework also negates the WW2 Western Europe comparison and North Africa and re-proves the point that we've run into many times in this thread - WW2 is not a good comparative starting point to this war. But hey, you've discovered how to post a wikipedia link. Good for you.

To clarify Russia caring - I mean that whatever Ukraine does in Africa, the Russian operation can (comparatively) easily absorb, replace and respond to. If Ukraine does become distracting it won't be hard for the Ivans to focus and overwhelm them, or at the very least buffer them back. UKR would need a lot of US support to counter that, but US domestic politics has no taste for getting involved in Africa. The Africa theatre is perhaps an inverse of the European one - its financially existential for the Russian elite (as a fresh source of money/power) but for Ukraine its an opportunistic expeditionary AO. The signalling to Western partners (as opposed to actually giving Russia pause - to and what would that look like? ) definitely rings true, with some caveats. Ref Hollywood, sure I'm probably jumping the gun a bit. Plus no breakfast yet! Anytime I post here its fundamentally out of curiosity - how accurate is this? How well do I understand that, if at all? What is happening here Etc. Possibly it was Pre-emptive push back to avoid my delicates getting whapped....

Isn't that the description of a unit being eating by its compatriots? Wagner personnel are still fighting, but Wagner has no MBTs, TOS 1 or aircraft, etc, and will never get them back (although, in Russia you never know! ). Wagner still exists as an organization but its not running any operations; its units are piecemeal across the front ands its not responsible for any one sector. It is now a tactical level effect, as directed by the RUS Army and has no operational agency in Ukraine. To actually have an effect in Africa Ukraine would need to drastically ramp up its involvement, at an inevitable cost to the homeland war.

I'm questioning the practical strategic use of these resources, as I'm doubting their usable operational or even tactical effects. I'm also curious about the nature and objective of Ukraines presence in Africa. I assumed signaling, but I'm not convinced it has any actual long term effect locally or internationally. If The UKR are saying, Look Out Russkies, We'll Get You Anywhere!, well so far they have failed to give Russia pause, and and I don't see how Russia would really care. This isn't projecting power, it's useless pinpricks on a boars skin. Russia does not give two flying rats arses about some dead mercs in Africa, There's always more coming. Brave effort, but feels useless. Russia has not paused anything in Africa, their effort is inordinately larger than anything the ZSU can do and is steadily growing each year. It's functionally self-funded at this point by control of local resources, which UKR does not have. If there is a UKR signal its pretty much overwhelmed by Russian noise and has zero chance .. So why bother? Or, heres what you seem to think I'm saying: DURRRR WHY UKR NOT RAMBO-ING STUPID WAGNERITES?! MORE BOOM BOOM NOW! ME WANTY HEADSHOT VIDEOS! But I'm not. I'm not warped by Hollywood. I don't deserve that condescension. It's often your go-to knee-jerk attitude and while often funny frankly it can also be indiscriminate and needlessly wearing. Ironically, It makes me pause to post, because I don't want to be shown up as foolish, so I try to put a bit more thought into things - which is a good effect! But it seems your snottiness is a hammer and (almost) everyone's question is a nail. Yes I'm a civvy but I'm not stupid. Perhaps you can bite down on the snarkiness as your first response? Maybe I am being too sensitive.

I'm sure the SOF themselves are working, but what's the strategic benefit here? Wagner is out of the real fight, in Europe, as an organization. UKR cannot realistically hope to combat its push into Africa. Zit-popping some Wagner's head in Burkina Faso helps the war efoort, and how? Is it just for propaganda purposes or morale? Pretty weak ROI... I'm not seeing As mentioned above, this could easily be a more cowboy, loosey-goosey operation than portrayed/understood, ie no pull on UKR resources but useful visibility. Likely ZSU or GUR doesn't get involved much, but sends some cash and occasional gear. Meh.

2018 Blast from the past: Its now ~$1.8 trn.

Yeah but there's plenty of war crimes happening day after day right now, in Ukraine. Perhaps killing Russian generals would have amore direct battlefield impact?

This feels very speculative and off-the-cuff. Is there something to ground this on?

https://newlinesmag.com/spotlight/a-russian-journalist-believed-ukraine-had-taught-her-about-war-and-suffering-then-she-moved-to-israel/ Not wishing to derail into Mid East chatter, but an interesting comparison of Ukraine v Russia with Israel v Gaza, in terms of the depth and intensity of feelings and the travel still to go for the former to match the latter. By a Russian liberal journalist who seems to have stayed focused on exposing Russian war crimes and has zero support for the Putin regime. So, for a once, a Russian actually doing something sustained against the war - I guess? It seems, from a distance, that there are certain parts of Ukraine society that haven't bought into the whole existential war aspect. This is from @Haiduk, @Kraft, some of Zeleban's notes and other more regular sources. The size of he country pushes the war away, where Israel is very small and Gaza is insanely small, allowing for more visceral, simultaneous and prolonged exposure of much larger amounts of both populations.

I'm at a loss for where the advantage or usability is for UKR SOF in Sudan. Wagner is out of the fight, WhatsHisFace fell out of the ultimate window and every experienced man is needed at home. There aren't enough UKR in Sudan to do anything more than minor irritation. So why are UKR snipers dicking around in east bloody Africa? Why pop off Wagnerites in the savannah or jungle instead of Donetsk or Zaporizhia or Kherson where, y'know, it might actually make a teeny tiny difference? Why not have them in Rostov On Don, freaking out the fat HQ folks? I'm baffled.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-67659275 Ukraine war: Atesh, the group spying on Russians in occupied Crimea Operatives say their information has aided high-profile Ukrainian strikes on Crimea, such as hits on a Russian landing ship and submarine - the Minsk and Rostov-on-Don - and an attack on the headquarters of Russia's Black Sea Fleet in September 2023...

Amazing

Hmm? So? They've shot hundreds of missiles at Ukraine and yet BTR4s are still rolling out. Russia sees to be able to somewhat hit targets, IF they get through the UKR AD, IF they fire enough assets. They ruined a lot of UKRs black sea grain export infrastructure, but that was before the UKR AD was strengthened in the south and was all open, and the public and known. Rheinmetall AG is certainly unconvinced by the Russian threat.