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Kinophile

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Posts posted by Kinophile

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted · Edited by Kinophile

    9 minutes ago, TheVulture said:

    Don't waste the weight on the seababy and draw the extra attention.  Instead have separate support surface drones with MGs or AGLs and a good supply of ammo that put down the suppressive fire while the seababies head in

    AGLs could be awkward, depending on sea conditions? But MGs would be useful for sure. Any kind of suppressive fire would help. 

     

    0

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted

    52 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

    It's all about arcs and threats.  One gun can only cover, at most, about 200 degrees and only a limited portion of that at any given point in time.  The more degrees between threats, the slower the response. 

    The drone threat requires, more than ever, 360° coverage capable of engaging multiple threats concurrently in any combination of sea, under sea, and air.

    That's not an easy thing, but holy crap Russia could be and should be doing better.

    Steve

    FPV, UAV drone op team organic to each ship. 4 guys for a corvette, when in harbour, bump up to 6-8 (2 teams w/ tech support) when faffing around on the waves. 

    0

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted

    4 minutes ago, hcrof said:

    One thing that struck me is that a relatively small ship got hit by multiple massive (900kg) warheads and yet only 12 deaths? Was the ship operating with it's full compliment? If not then no wonder they can't have multiple people manning deck guns 24/7

    Well,  its Russians saying 12 (ie, a lie) so double that as a rule of thumb. 

    2

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted · Edited by Kinophile

    27 minutes ago, Letter from Prague said:

    So they might not actually have that many guys with guns to go out and shoot drones.

    Even then, strip a crew from one ship in a class to fill out the others. Christ, watch a telegram video or two of FPVs hunting soldiers and go DURRR MAYBE THESE GUYS COULD STAND ON A DECK AND DO THE SAME THING AGAINST A USV? 

    Good God. Two, TWO Drone Ops could have fought off that USV attack on the Sergei, or at the very least prevented the double/triple tap that sank it. 

    0

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted · Edited by Kinophile

    49 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

    The reason is the only people who think a cease fire is practical are people who are either fine with throwing Ukraine under the bus or are totally ignorant of this war and shouldn't be voicing an opinion.

    The only country in the world right now that can affect a cease fire is Russia.  That's it.  Russia, Russia, and only Russia.  That is because only Russia can stop this war and so far it has shown 0.0% interest in anything other than Ukraine's total surrender and dismemberment.

    Lots of other countries have a say in surrender, chief of which is Ukraine.  A Trump Presidency could influence a surrender scenario, though we are already seeing that Ukraine is able to keep killing Russians without significant US aide, so I'm hopeful.

    Therefore, any talk (and I do mean *any*) about a cease fire is akin to suggesting Ukraine fully surrender or it is naive nonsense that means zero in the world we live in.

    For sure the war must end at some point.  And that point is when Russia or Ukraine have decided they have had enough.  If Russia decides to quit then a cease fire may be possible.  If Ukraine decides to quit, then it will be a surrender and not cease fire.  If both have decided they want to quit at the same time, which is not impossible, then perhaps there could be a temporary cease fire (temporary could be years).  Which is why Ukraine doesn't have any intention of going down that route unless it has no other choice.

    Steve

    There seem to be two critical items US provides that Europe can't - C4ISR and Patriots. For almost everything else there is a European equivalent or better (Brad /CV90s, HARM /Meteor, NASSAMs, etc).

    I'm not saying CV90s is better than Brad's, but they are certainly equivalent; if UKR swapped every single Brad for a CV90 would there be a drop in effectiveness? Dump the token Abrams and Leos for a fleet of Korean K2s and you're still rolling. 

    EU arms production rates and quality of machines can absolutely match US. 

    The best (and worst) thing about EU support is that it's non-binary. If the wrong dipsh*t wins the US election then aid drops like a drunk Ivan. EU is slower to get to a point but also slower to leave, and even then intra-member agreements are par for the course. 

    Edit-There is a third US item : world wide logistics...damn. 

    4

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted · Edited by Kinophile

    12 minutes ago, photon said:

    That's what I'm puzzled by. The notional maximum speed of that ship is 25-30 knots with the turbine boost, but it seems like it can only manage 12ish knots on its cruise engines. I wonder how long it takes to transition from cruise engines to combat engines? Maybe the maintenance and logistical tail can't support ships running on turbines the whole time they're at sea?

    It also looks like the USVs approach first from the rear, so I wonder if the tactic is: 1. First drone hits the rear of the ship, impairing mobility. 2. Other drones circle (!) setting up for sinking strikes. 3. Drone hits amidships opening a hole at the waterline. 4. Drone enters (!) previous hole detonating and causing catastrophic sinking damage in the unarmored interior.

    The USVs look to be pretty low observability and are operating in wolfpacks, so detection prior to the mobility kill is the whole fight. Once the first drone hits the rear of the ship, that's seems like the ballgame.

    I'm really interested in how the amidships is the preferred target zone. It's nominally more dangerous to attack, as CIWS can hit you from stem to stern, versus a stern attack where half the ship's armament can't hit you. But if you hit the stern that damage can be compartmentalized - you're working up a "pipe" (the hull) and the damaged zone can be sectioned off. Hit the middle of the pipe and water has many more directions to flow. Also, munitions stores are rarely in the stern so if you want some nice secondaries then go in the middle.

    If you know the CIWS is not strong and the Bridge is preoccupied with an attack on the opposite side then you have a good chance of striking home. We also know that BSF damage control is not great. An amidships strike is bad but to get double-tapped, that's really bad. Your primary team dealing with the original damage is now dead, wounded or scattered and must be reconstituted. With sh*tty leadership that's unlikely. 

    Like you I'm also extra curious about that lack of maneuver at speed. These corvettes are relatively speedy and "agile". The UKR must be hitting their stern first, as you say.

    Finally, I thought I saw a UAV strike in the footage, not sure. 

    0

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted · Edited by Kinophile

    19 minutes ago, hcrof said:

    I wonder if the issue is money - if the fleet budget is being plundered to pay for the land campaign they can't adapt ships and training easily, let alone develop a new drone force. On the other hand they need to demonstrate they are trying to do something to keep Putin happy so they put assets at risk (Russian attitude being you are not fighting if you don't take casualties anyway.) This is all compounded by remarkably poor leadership . 

    This situation can't be stable though, surely the Russians will have to think of something eventually...

    Fuel might be an issue, maybe. Money, maybe, but with something like 17%+ of GDP spent on the war there must surely be enough for the BSF. 

    Even then, the lie is put to that by the direct example of Ukraine. Strong leadership always finds a way, and quickly.

    Lazy, unimaginative and fearful leaders stall, prevaricate and rehash existing tactics and doctrine, to no avail. 

    Thank God the BSF is led by domesticated goldfish, while Ukraine's naval war is led by sharks. 

     

    1

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted · Edited by Kinophile

    The BSF is no joke in terms of firepower and is still a considerable force, but having destroyed the UKR Navy it lacks the organic units to perform the second of its two missions. First is control the open sea (nominally done, and but not really - in UKR grain exports are at/past pre war levels), second is control the littoral zone. (third would be support inland ground forces with ranged strikes). 

    This course of the war, as with several other aspects, again reminds me of the Russo-Japanese War, specifically Port Arthur. Not a perfect analogy (nothing is) but similar pressures and operational/strategic pinch points. 

    The BSF eradicated the UKR Navy as a fighting force but has failed to control the shores. Its ships are too vulnerable, its training and operational performance are abysmal but where it truly seems to fail is leadership. 

    Operationally, the lack of basic fleeting/convoying and Air support around VIP units (cough Moskva cough Ropucha class cough) is just incredible. I mean, did these guys not read naval history at all ? Are they utterly bereft of any clue in how to deal with their enemy outside simplistic text books? 

    These are old tactics, fully described in any naval warfare text. Old but effective. Even if they are not a full solution (because drones) they still increase the friction against any attack. Stack up the layers and attacks start to fail, or at the least the damage inflicted is lessened. I mean, do something . 

    Are they not looking at current events and past losses? After so, SO many drone strikes why are their ships not bristling with HMGs and search lights? The Ukies do it on land, so it's absolutely possible. Why, when attacks begin are their ships not going full speed, maneuvering like mad and making work for the USVs? Why are helos not in the air, on call, strafing the USVs? Why don't they have their own drone ops onboard, striking back at USVs with FPVs? 

    None of the above is hard or requires integrating new tech (drone ops are self contained). 

    Seriously, wtf? 

    Its impossible to control a hostile shore if you can't even protect your own units in harbour. 

    But hey, if you need a family murdered in their home at night then these useless ****s are just who you want. 

    3

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted

    31 minutes ago, squatter said:

    I'll take you up on this. 

    I firmly believe it's within the power of the USA to end this war pretty much immediately (setting aside the madhouse of US domestic politics.)

    That's a ridiculously large caveat and exactly the kind of handwaving Der Kapitan is describing. 

    It's completely unrealistic to describe any peace process that does try to take into account US political dynamics. 

    Everything following after that caveat, and no matter how sensible in isolation, is simply wishing for unicorns. It's not analysis, it's "I think". 

     

    2

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted · Edited by Kinophile

    Kerch bridge under attack?... 

    Confirmed - UAVs And USVs... 

    HOWEVER, 

    It might not just be a strike on the bridge, but also on a BSF vessel near the bridge. No reports so far mention the bridge itself getting hit, but all state 'near' is the bridge. Obviously, the the sea is near the bridge :)

     

    Sergei Kotov, corvette, is suggested as target. Interestingly, from wiki :

    Quote

    Flaws include insufficient seaworthiness, light armour, and a lack of adequate air defences. After the sinking of the Moskva, the Russian Navy began attaching Tor-M2 km missile systems onto the helicopter decks of the patrol ships.

    Well, reports now of Yes, the bridge possibly is hit. Question is was it the primary target and the Kotov was defending, or just collateral hits to a strike on the Kotov... 

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