Bulletpoint

They have apparently been fighting with shovels since early March. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64855760 Russian trolls and bots are still making fun of that in the youtube comments sections. Sounds like they now will have new fuel.

I didn't mean that if Ukraine doesn't make it to a certain line before a certain date, then suddenly all Western support will fall away. I meant that the narrative might gradually start to shift, and that before we know it, we are no longer talking about sending more stuff to Ukraine so they can win faster, but about what the inevitable terms of the peace deal should be. And if that happens, then most countries will of course not be eager to send more assistance, because that would be seen as investing in a lost cause. Which might lead to a vicious cycle of less assistance, less progress on the battlefield, less asistance, etc. Not to be the forum's doomsayer, but I think this is a real political risk for Ukraine at the moment. And that's why I think this offensive needs to produce tangible results - it's not just a case of "oh well, we didn't win this year, but there's always next season".

I'm sure they did everything they could. But that little village has been jutting out like a salient since 20/08. I'm really surprised they held out so long. And just in case anybody thinks I'm trying to praise the Russian army - no, I'm not. I'm just saying that when a village barely 500x500 metres is able to hold out for nearly a month despite being surrounded on three sides, only to finally get totally destroyed instead of surrendering, then that doesn't sound like the typical story of clueless and demotivated mobiks that we so often hear. Hopefully those guys were the last competent Russians in the army, because if they have many more of the same kind, then this will be a long war.

They had been holding out in that tiny village less than 500x500 metres for nearly a month (since 20/08). Sounds to me like they were shelled into submission and finally overrun.

This is an interesting perspective, and you may well be right about the Russian war culture. But I don't think the Western audience is so worried by high Ukrainian casualties. Saddened, yes, but we are saddened every time we turn on the news. It's not our countrymen returning home in boxes - apart from a few Western volunteers of course. I think the main narrative shift is from "this war will be won easily" to "this war will be won with high losses" and then finally to "this war cannot be won - we need a negotiated settlement". In this shift, it matters a lot whether Ukraine is making gains on the battlefield or not. Again, I might be wrong about the offensive failing. I have been wrong before about this war. But I think there's a lot at stake here in these last few weeks before winter.

I know it's almost heresy to say on these forums, but as we are now halfway through September and Ukraine is still quite far from Tokmak, and Tokmak is quite far away from the sea of Azov, I've begun considering the offensive a failure. Of course I can't say for sure. I'm no military expert, and I don't have access to much information. Maybe the Russians are close to breaking point and collapse. Hopefully they are. But the front line is just not moving very much. Ukraine has been fighting hard and taken heavy losses, and still only have very few gains to show for it. The Verbove penetration is only about 10x10 kilometres and even though it's now two weeks since the Russian line was claimed to be penetrated, the front line has barely moved since then. But I'm not writing this to start another debate about whther the offensive has failed or not. I'm thinking about what will happen if it has indeed failed. Just for the sake of the argument, let's say autumn rain and mud arrives and Ukraine is still barely halfway to Tokmak. What happens then? I'm guessing both sides would try to struggle on through autumn and winter, but mostly the war would be in pause. How does the situation look next spring, then, both militarily and on the political level? For all the talk about whether the Russian people are fed up with the war, how about Western voters? When I look around here in Denmark, it seems the war has gone from a matter of great urgency to just background noise. I think that a failed offensive would lead many people in the west to conclude that this was is not really winnable. Before, there was this sense that since Ukraine had beaten Russia so badly in the beginning of the war, with Russia at full strenght and Ukraine armed with pitchforks and home-made molotovs, surely the Ukrainian counteroffensive would be a great success now that Russia has been mauled and Ukraine has been supplied with some of the best weapons NATO has to offer. Yet that's not what we see. And I think that's a sobering thought for many.

That looks so similar to CM that I wonder if it's a copy somehow.

I meant alt+z of course Sorry for the confusion.

First the Moskva, now this mighty vessel. A few more such victories, and the war will be over before Christmas.

Also try pressing Alt+x to toggle on the visual command lines. Those can often help explain who is really supposed to be in C2 with whom.

Must say I never noticed that...

Hopefully he also dodged the next one after the clip ended.

They are not waiting till winter, but have been continually digging new defensive lines and that work is still ongoing. The real question is if they can keep manning the new trenches. Opinions on this seem to be mixed.

Yes, but only because some of them have better armour. The only vehicle I remember having "odd" damage behaviour is the M10 tank destroyer. It seems strangely resistant to penetrating hits on the front turret, in my opinion. Never tested it out though. Oh, and the bulletproof jeep windshields of course.

I find it's very variable how many penetrations it takes. Had a Tiger II taken out frontally by a 57mm AT gun. It hit the top of the turret at an extremely shallow angle, but because it hit one of the small hoisting loops, the game apparently decided the shell had hit at 90 degree angle. But in general, probably the difference you're seeing is due to German tanks firing AP shells with explosive filler, while the British don't.

Thanks for making and sharing. There was another similar table made for CMFB some years ago. One thing to be careful about is the exact time of night and the exact date the scenario takes place in. The game tracks the moon and its phases, so if the moon is not up yet on your particular date, or if it's not a full moon, then the amount of light will be very different.

I hope you are right, but I don't think the North Korean ammo deal makes that much of a difference in practice. At least not if Ukraine is winning the artillery war and knocking out 215 (+19 MLRS) Russian artillery systems a week, like they claimed recently. Soon they won't have many guns left to shoot that NK ammo from.

I could be wrong of course.

If this is true, then on one hand, it's very good news. But on the other hand, it's also bad news. Because it's a clear sign that those in charge, with access to good intel on what's actually happening on the ground, are not convinced the Ukrainian offensive is going anywhere fast. If they thought Ukraine had broken through the hard crust and would soon see big gains, it wouldn't be the time to finally release a weapon that has been held back for so long.

I'd take those numbers with a pinch of salt. Ukraine claims to have destroyed 4500 Russian tanks, but Oryx has "only" confirmed a bit more than 2000.

There's always a temptation to think that rich and powerful people must be really intelligent to reach that far. But I think maybe the simplest explanation for a guy like Prig is that he was just not that smart to begin with. He was not a shrewd political genius with special insight into Russian politics, but just a lucky psychopath of average intelligence who rose to power and wealth more or less by chance. He was at the right place at the right time and was able to gain and combine connections with politicians, mercenaries and petty criminals, and he was ruthless enough to do anything to get what he wanted. But then he got too big for his boots. Having your own private army probably affects your ego pretty badly. Must be hard to keep a level self image when you're in your private jet, drinking champagne with one hand and ordering thousands of people to fight and die with the other. He started to think he was the equal of Putin, a great person of history, and that somehow he was far above the level where he could simply be killed off. But he wasn't. The end.

At least it died with a gender neutral pronoun.

Yes, that is well understood.

I hope you are right. Someone else said they were winning the artillery war. If that's true, then they should be in Tokmak soon.

I think a big reason for the recent UKR gains is that they have committed much more force to the fight recently. And they have done this in large part because there is an increasing political pressure on them to deliver results now. Both Western backers and the Ukrainian people want to see results on the ground. So a good question would be at what cost they have gained ground in recent weeks. I personally don't think the attack helicopter threat has been eliminated. And I don't think the Russian army is on the verge of collapse. Taking casualties, yes. But mobilising steadily more. Steadily digging more trenches. Planting more mines.