kraze
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Posts posted by kraze
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40 minutes ago, acrashb said:
Does that make Zelensky into Paul Atreides?
Spoiler: it's more fitting than you think, just in reverse
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58 minutes ago, Grigb said:
Now they are promising to make real war.
What? They will have to use another "joke" other than "Ukraine is winning only on social media"?
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3 hours ago, dan/california said:
One more medium sized question, if the Russian empire is truly coming apart the seams would we care if Ukraine acquired another oblast or five? Maybe Belgorod or Rostov on Don are suddenly overwhelmed by the urge to be run by sane people? Sane people with a proven army...
We would rather happily donate those oblasts to people who are into extreme survival sports. Not to mention that we already need to deal with russians from Belgorod and Rostov on Don who came here just this year.
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3 hours ago, dan/california said:
Except what about the nukes? How the
do you deal with those? Everybody knows, or at least assumes, that the Ukraine invasion would not have happened if they had kept the nukes in 1991. That is going to be uppermost on the minds of every single mafia boss looking to move up to head of state of Inner Crapistan. Not to mention ten or 15 bad actors bidding for the bleeping things. Honestly if I was in charge of Ukraine it would have some prominence on my to do list too, absent actual NATO membership.
It's not that hard, just takes a lot of time that will be worth it in the end.
In 1991 Russia was starving. But instead of taking those nukes in exchange for food - everybody just rushed to feed those poor guys for free.
it's just enough to not repeat the mistake again when that happens again during the empire's fall.
Just need to stop with the humanist BS about "but they are human beings too" at least for a couple of years until they prove they are ones.
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4 hours ago, dan/california said:
There are two or three hard first questions. Are we trying to keep Russia together or break it apart? Are we trying to make Russia pay for all of the damage to Ukraine? Or is the risk of Versailles type bitterness too high if we just seize half of their oil and gas revenue for the next twenty years? Extracting real money from them pretty much requires that Moscow remain in control of the whole country? What is the best way to unwind 500 years of bad government and worse decisions while trying to keep a handle on several thousand nukes? Are treaties with the current Russian government even possible given the extent to which they lie about everything, all the time?
Secondary considerations, how much do we care if China benefits at Russian expense? would a relatively free hand in Russia convince China it has better things to do than destroy the world economy by attacking Taiwan? Can we break the the lock the current Moscow elite has on the oil and gas revenue? Is ANYTHING resembling decent, never mind democratic, governance remotely possible in any significant portion of this mess.
Oh, and can we manage a government change in Belarus that puts it on trajectory that vaguely resembles Ukraines at acceptable cost? Do we have a choice? There is probably a Phd in foreign relations in the answer to each of those questions, but I don't think we can wait that long.
Those 500 years happened because that's just how they are - it can't be changed by giving them McDonald's and a pat on the back. You already tried.
Russian empire ceasing to exist is a much much better long term investment for (and into) Ukraine then making them pay reparations (they won't, giving 1000 BS excuses, like sanctions made us poor, no money sorry *drives off in his packed Bentley*). Because Russia will be back to kill again. It's just how it is, everybody should just stop trying to change people who are not willing to change themselves. Maybe when the remnants of their empire will be stuck in a permanent survival war (like we are) - it will cause changes (like it did to us).
Same goes for Belarus. They genuinely, absolutely love Lukashenko. It's not some oppressive dictator, who makes poor people feel sad. To them he is the best ever leader they had and will ever have. Real world is not Just Cause or Far Cry, overthrowing dictators is a responsibility of parties involved, not somebody else coming and doing it.
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1 hour ago, danfrodo said:
I've always thought of the end of Putin as some kind of coup. But maybe it doesn't look like that. Maybe that vote by the council in St Petersburg means something. What if regional gov'ts decide on their own to stop taking orders from Putin. Putin's power stems from men w guns ready to make people follow orders. What if regional govts are able to muster enough rifles & men to just say 'no!' when a dozen FSB men show up?
Maybe Putin's fall is just from various entities around Russia simply refusing to take his orders, condemning him, and having enough local firepower to back it up since the army is rather busy being destroyed.
Or, better yet, once russian army is done for good here (even if there are reserves but they are all stuck here defending whatever they occupied) - we can see almost simultaneous actions of Moldova, Georgia, Azerbaijan (and whatever entities inside the empire itself) taking back their land. Problem isn't putin, his fall solves nothing. Empire must collapse.
I mean we already see how russians are incapable of defending whatever they occupy in Azerbaijan and Azerbaijan already treads carefully, yet surely, to retake what was stolen from them - only because they aren't sure yet if they can take on russian army, once it stops pretending to be "peaceful local citizens from Karabakh's People's Republic"
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"In a hot war we will win in Ukraine in 2 days. LOL it's Ukraine - like what it would take to win there?"
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21 minutes ago, Letter from Prague said:
Yeah, if the orcs do use WMDs, it will for sure be a terror campaign.
I don't think they will. Unlike people who fight for something they actually believe in, or people defending themselves, who fight when backed into a corner, cowardly bullies tend to give up, feign friendliness and wait for next opportunity to mess with someone.
In case of military collapse, I think we're more likely to see Navalny on the throne pretending peaceful and changed Russia (while trying to keep Crimea and not actually doing anything differently than Putin - with Macron, Scholz and Orban helping him with both) rather than a nuclear campaign.
But I'm sure we will see soon enough. Maybe the abuser mentality of "I can't have what I want so I'm gonna hurt random people out of spite" will prevail over cowardice. Maybe nuclear winter saves us from global warming! (Sorry I'm in a dark mood.)
We already have a joke here:
- let's all greet our new tsar - Khuilo II
- but my name's Aleksei!
- sorry, it's our russian tradition now
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Maybe he means his actual land, like the future Belgorod People's Republic.
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1 hour ago, Mattias said:
Having seen the actual clip that the picture originates from, knowing that it is an image of a human being in a moment of absolute terror and anguish, I personally am revolted by its use in a meme. I know full well that my emotions are shaped by what might be described as the arrogance of a western comfort, but could we please refrain from going that much orc and refrain from posting gore here?
Looking into the abyss and all that…
I get why some people may not be having revolting emotions since that "human being" killed, raped, looted and tortured other, real human beings, just only yesterday. So why not get terrified a bit because of the just consequences? Even then all he suffered is, unfortunately, just being shocked for a little while and, unfortunately, is probably still alive.
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9 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:
All good with the Ukraine Kharkiv offensive and all but what could success here mean strategically? Even in the best case?
Everyone can see the huge strategic impact of the Kherson area but how much would successes in Kharkiv front mean? Not as much I would dare to say. (but surely still very good indeed)
Even if they take the area I drew here would it really matter that much in the big picture?
Lots of dead russians is a pretty big deal as it is - not to mention it completely screws over Luhansk sector security for russians (possible backdoor to Siverodonetsk) and effectively denies them Kramatorsk and Slavyansk, which russians want to level and exterminate more than any other city in that area, same as Mariupol.
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53 minutes ago, billbindc said:
The track record of post Franco-Prussian War France and post WWI Germany is awful. The former gave us the progenitors of fascism (Boulangisme, the Dreyfus Affair, etc) and the latter gave us the full blown, global domination version. Who thinks the Russia version will bring about gentle democracy?
It won't. But it won't be Nazi Germany either (because they already are in a way). Because Russians are not Germans of WWI. They are indeed much closer to Germans of WWII, just a lot less "competent" (thankfully).
Chances are russian empire will finally cease to exist, hopefully splitting into ethnic driven states murdering each other over who gets the most land and resources out of the fall.
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Do not let the infertility virus get you comrade, join the army and die first on the frontline. Do not let Obama take your sperm.
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3 hours ago, BlackMoria said:
Based on villages and cities leveled during far eastern offensive a few months ago and the many videos of landscapes that look like the surface of the moon, I would say there was zero consideration of ammunition expenditure concerns. I think that is catching up with them now.
That's Soviet doctrine. You shell it until it doesn't move anymore, if it moves - shell it again until it doesn't, repeat until moon surface because it will always move, but you are too dumb to understand that people defending their land fight differently from the ever invaders and a single guy in the bushes in 2022 can take out your best tank (and its crew) from 2 miles away.
So of course it doesn't work since Russia is forever stuck reliving 1945 and the world has moved on since, including how the war is fought. Maybe it's some kind of a closet thing where they cannot accept the "correct" side losing, can even be seen in nazi soldiers they mass put on "victory" posters every 9th of May, too omnipresent to be a "coincidence" every time. Or an occasional but constant slips about how Jews are evil from top government officials.
Their ballistic missiles stocks seem to be suffering the same faith. They fired 3500+ missiles at us and now have to heavily ration them - but with stuff like NASAMS coming - whatever they have left will be even less effective.
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4 hours ago, The_Capt said:
Hold the phone a minute...Russia is purchasing millions of indirect fire ammo from NK. I thought Russia had a bottomless ocean of artillery ammunition stocks? Why do they need to buy more? "HIMARS were a minor irritant and the RA was just going to blast the UA off the battlefield inch by inch with a never ending supply of ammo."
Whoops.
Purchasing 40-50 years old ammo they gave to NK for free
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13 hours ago, Haiduk said:
Bezugla "intervention in comamnd line chain" as a reason of Siverodonetsk falling - this is ridiculous hype of Butusov, no more. She is nobody for military even though she came from President's office.
She is not a reason for Siverodonetsk falling and Butusov never claimed as much. Nobody ever did (however the reason for why Crimean bridges weren't blown up stated by Podolyak is enough to end political careers of all of them... after the victory of course). But it's one example of political meddling with army affairs outside of the chain of command to win those sweet PPs and slap medals on people from political surroundings who don't deserve it. In fact just as I was writing yesterday's post - Bezugla managed to become a catalyst for another army-related scandal, which I'm sure you noticed (female conscription).
But this all is for after the victory. We still have a two headed hen to fry.
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2 hours ago, Haiduk said:
The same narratives, being inserted in our media space by Russian PsyOps as well as "there is a conflict between Zaluzhyi and President's office, because Zelenskyi sees in Zaluzhnyi own political rival" with big glad were picked up by former president Poroshenko followers and his numerous bot-farms
This one wasn't a russian psyop though. Politicking the army is one of many reasons why Zelenskyy shouldn't and won't have a second term that our western friends here don't know yet. Bezugla at the frontlines is just one example of presidential office attacking army's chain of command (Arestovich getting a colonel rank despite having spent 0 seconds in the army is another) for political points but let's leave that kind of stuff for after the victory.
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4 minutes ago, Grigb said:
I will not call you lunatic because I myself got a lesson from this war not to underestimate stupidity of RU ruling elite.
However, the problem is FSB is not the only intelligence service in RU. GRU provides alternative assessment that FSB cannot do anything about. So, both FSB and GRU must be in it together. For me it is a bit too much.
However still not impossible scenario - there are groups of relatively young Nat officers in all military services of RU. They could come to conclusion that RU needs some sort of war for a shake up to get to a proper path toward Empire. That's plausible scenario.
There were articles posted in this thread way back when about GRU not being assigned to Ukraine at all because russians do not consider Ukraine a separate country and treat it as a separatist region instead - hence FSB - which by its very own description is an internal affairs service.
So maximum hubris.
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6 hours ago, pavel.k said:
When i heard about FSB poor report about the state of Ukraine which probably give a green light for the Invasion, it came to my mind, what if it was poor report for purpose? To let bleed the army and create crisis. Could this terrible tragedy be just a high game of Patrushev or Bortnikov? It sounds very conspiracy/crazy, isn't it?
Also if i remember correctly there were some speculations after the beginning of invasion, that FSB provided some good intel to Ukraine. Like it was making sure the invasion will not succeed?
Ok, you can call me lunatic and i will shut up
I don't think FSB is that smart. I think in this case it was just hubris.
After all remember - even US and UK were giving us 48 hours till Kyiv falls and those have a much much better intelligence (pun intended) than FSB.
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7 minutes ago, pavel.k said:
Reportedly 70 thousand people demonstration in Prague for leaving EU and cancelling sanctions against Russia. They all are jumping to arms of extremists so easily. And it is still summer...EU should hurry and finally set the cap for gas and oil price.
Maybe these people just want to hold off until spring returns to Prague again.
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1 hour ago, Grigb said:
RU reports that the new UKR landing at the station was destroyed but with difficulty because they do not have enough equipment.
Not enough equipment to destroy an imaginary landing. I have a feeling they are going to lose eventually to another imaginary landing.
A few years back in Belarus they were doing military exercises against an imaginary country of Weisnoria.
They suffered real casualties.
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5 hours ago, FancyCat said:
One of their main complaints is why Russia has not turned the government quarter of Kiev into ruins.
Tbf a bit of a valid concern if I were pro-Russian and convinced that Zelensky and co are Nazis intent on destroying Russia by driving Ukraine into ruin.
If Russia really is attempting to use the terrorism narrative, I would also question why terrorist leaders in Ukraine don't get the same cruise missile treatment as Dzhokhar Dudayev.
I am not personally convinced Russia does not have the capability to kill military leadership and Zelensky and the Rada but I do think there is a very high chance of failure and failure would be the worse outcome of a strike.
Missile striking a presidential building in Kyiv is nigh impossible with what russians have. It's not a White House in the middle of green fields. It's situated in a very dense district with many buildings being higher. Not to mention it's built with measures for occupants to survive a nuclear strike. Also failing to hit it and provide the needed domestic effect will make all possible negotiations impossible down the line - and clearly russians want that option. Which means they aren't winning at all.
Also they tried to strike an Artem factory three times and failed to hit it, causing damage to nearby residential buildings instead, resulting only in more western weapons for Ukraine.
Rada might be easier, but it won't do much, because, really, it's AFU doing the 'diplomacy' now. And AFU isn't an old and very centralized Soviet monster anymore.
Not to mention Kyiv will be covered by NASAMS now - that is most certain.
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No prob - back to topic.
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1 hour ago, The_Capt said:
- I get we are sore on Russia right now, they earned that one; however, at what point on this incredibly myopic line of thinking do we become worse than we assign to them? All in the name of "safety" - a whole lot of atrocity and historic marks of shame lay on the feet of "safety". I have been to one genocide and trust me none of you know what you are talking about, so stop hijacking the thread.
No knowledge about genocides here man. I mean it's true - one of the previous many times they did one on us - they killed 5 million Ukrainians in one year, literally nearly every family here has some ancestor brutally murdered by russians at some point, so I guess the current one doesn't count, because they are now prevented from beating that high score.
If only there were mass graves on occupied territories that could've been seen from space - "good" russians would be storming Kremlin by now, trying to put an end to it.
But of course russians doing genocides for centuries is perfectly fine - it's saying that they should be held responsible for their absolutely atrocious actions by simply not being allowed to cause harm in the first place - by making them stay in the country the love the most - means I'm the Hitler here.
How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?
in Combat Mission Black Sea
Posted · Edited by kraze
It's true. My wish has been to see all pro-russian people go home, to their Best Country and stop ruining Ukraine - and it's now coming to be true absolutely voluntarily.
It's pure perfection. Let them all go. Live in the land of hypersound nukes and vodka. And never come back.