kraze
-
Posts
1,373 -
Joined
-
Last visited
-
Days Won
3
Posts posted by kraze
-
-
13 minutes ago, Zeleban said:
To be honest, I don't understand what Putin is trying to achieve. Intimidation doesn't work. We have already gone through this, at the very beginning of the war there were similar attacks on the residential areas of Kyiv and this only caused an increase in hatred towards the Russians. I think the only result of these attacks will be an increase in military assistance to Ukraine.
russians (not putin, people should stop pretending it's just some putin, as much as some "civilized" forum members here may not like it) simply don't know how to do it any other way. It worked in Chechnya and it worked in Syria, so must work here too.
-
5 minutes ago, RockinHarry said:
Best good morning pics since long time. Was the first to see after switching on TV and news. My best bet would be truck bomb a well, but who sent it? Since Vlad is threatening with his sh***y hypersonic crap and
right from the start, I wouldn´t be surprised if it was himself then justifying use of tac nukes. Anything could happen since Vlad knocked his head after slipping from the toilet bowl in february.
Not the bridge. He would've exploded a few apartment blocks in Moscow, he has a track record.
Bridge is a symbol. Exploding a symbol of your power on your own bday? Nah.
Besides our secretary of security council kind of said "we did it" in his tweet.
-
20 minutes ago, MikeyD said:
We say Ukraine but lets remember a lot of Russians are really REALLY pissed with mass conscription, especially in ethnic minority areas. That lowers the probability that Ukraine did it from 98% to 78% (still pretty darned high). How would Ukraine get 2 tons of explosives onto a truck driving out of Krasnodar?
Russians will never do such a thing. They are "pissed" (scared) with the conscription, but they still support the invasion and bridge itself is a Holy symbol of their victory over the evil West, which accepted the occupation. Plus dying in a truck so you don't possibly die in a war makes no sense. Not to mention a truckload of explosives isn't something a russian has at home, unless it's some military organization. And, again, the Bridge is Holy. An enlistment office? Yes. Bridge? No. Holy.
Truck drivers get hired all the time. They do deliveries so often they won't care what's in the boxes loaded into the truck as long as they get paid. It's the easiest part of the plan.
-
6 minutes ago, chrisl said:
The train is a pretty short target in time - do Russian trains run as reliably as Swiss?
It might be easier if it's not a suicide bomber to know which truck it's going to be in and follow it in a car with a remote (which could just be a call from a phone).
A
russian trains do have a schedule (it's their main supply artery for whole Crimea, not just frontlines - so it's reasonable to assume a fuel train always delivers fuel through the bridge at XX:XX AM) and the truck was most likely followed by one of the cars, where the spotter was going to hit the button when the truck crosses ways with the train.
I'd even say they were trying to go for exploding it at the bridge arc ideally (as you can see it's really close) but the train was faster (here you have that unpredictable train time variation)
-
-
10 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:
Martyrdom operation or self-driving VBIED?
Maybe Elon is on the side of the angels after all, in his own twisted way (lol)?
Let's play guessing game: I'd say the likely way to do it was knowing the supply train schedule (easy enough by just watching the bridge daily) and exploiting that to fullest by hiring some unaware russian truck driver to deliver a ton of something in cardboard boxes (e.g. "washing machines") by driving out strictly at 7 AM to catch the train. And hitting the button at the right time.
Now that would've been pretty "uncivilized" by western standards and I guess it means that Nobel peace prize should be taken away so only belarussians and russians share it.
-
3 hours ago, Grigb said:
Rybar reports that Dagger units at Zaporozhye direction consist mainly of polish mercenaries. The Poles are everywhere!
That's easy to explain. You see since in their heads Ukrainians don't exist - we also don't have a language, just a weird dialect of russian. But then russians hear Ukrainian language on the radio and go like "I don't understand a word, but it sounds
actually slavicnot russian, so must be Polish mercs!" -
7 hours ago, MSBoxer said:
If this is true, it gives me hope. For all of those that say that Russian culture is irredeemable, I ask
If Ukraine was such a substantial part of Russia/Soviet Union just over 30 years ago, I have hopes that if there is actually a change at the top in Russia we could see a change in the overall regard for humanity across the board.
This may be a simplistic view, and I have no idea if the average Ukrainian from 30+ years ago had the same views as today's Russians, but it gives me hope and there are times when hope in your fellow man is all you can ask for.Ukraine was under the russian occupation 30 years ago and russians kept repressing Ukrainians well into 1991. Ukrainians also wanted freedom and fought for it to various degrees through the whole russian occupation of 20th century.
An average Ukrainian certainly didn't have the same views. It's the same as saying Czechs had the same views because they were occupied from 1945 until 1990.
-
Just now, Artkin said:
For sure. The Belarussian military is something like a corps in strength last I remember. It's really not much. If the forces were committed in February they would have been effective. Now, they will come across battle hardened veterans who have been rotated to the rear. After being stopped by TD, of course.
I don't see it as likely either, everyone knows what would happen lol.
In the Tpyca video it was noted that Belarus has 7 BTG on the border already. We have seen a lot more than 7 BTG's get wiped off the map so far. More like 70.
I think Belarus will keep playing the role of simply tying down our forces in the north and for that they will be making statements a la "we are going to attack any day now" while keeping their troops near the border without ever crossing it. In fact that's been their modus operandi for the past 6 months.
After all Lukashenko stayed in power longer than putin (28 years now) and he didn't need any "small victorious wars" to make his people love him (and belarussians do love him, have no illusions about that), just enough to keep his throne secure.
-
29 minutes ago, Artkin said:
https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-belarus-border-war-russia-/32066770.html
In this video they have mixed opinions. The commander of the Northern Operational Group doesnt think so, but it was noted in the video that Belarus is building up rail and airport transportation infrastructure
at this point in time Belarus "army" will simply get massacred once it crosses the border. They lack numbers (they can commit 20k at most, their whole standing army is 60k), don't have russians anywhere near like it was back in February and in a much much worse shape than russians are. If russians thought that gluing western tech to soviet tanks made them the top army and did just that - Belarus never left the '70s.
Sure if they decide to go full in - they will be able to kill some of ours, but Belarus will cease having any army in a month (and who will be protecting their leader then?). Russians committed about 60k troops for their initial push on Kyiv when we didn't have defense lines in the north and those were their most elite.
Furthermore you have to remember that HIMARS-striking Belarus is being held back only by AFU's wish, US absolutely doesn't mind every Belarus military object being smashed if there's a need, unlike when it comes to Russia.
-
1 minute ago, Artkin said:
Is this just some nonsense?
Of course. Why would russians ever announce **** they are gonna do?
-
30 minutes ago, Grigb said:
Comedy break - after experiencing success with public pressure coordinated through uncensored Telegram anti-liberal RU started to turn to Western Democracy:
The author mixed up factions a bit - Klimov is not from Guardians, he is from Girkinites.
I mean as funny as that is - they do need somebody to play the role of russian "opposition" at home for the, now politically orphaned, target audience, since the previous domestic "opposition" is now promoted to storming bars abroad that are occupied by Nazis, who are exterminating the basic right of "liberal" russians to drink themselves into unconsciousness, while screaming about their (remote) love for Mother Russia and ever present russophobia.
-
27 minutes ago, FancyCat said:
This is a very important example of what russian "opposition" really is and why I personally dislike them so much.
Also bonus: her godfather is literally putin himself. Not kidding here. It's even more telling how deeply "Navalny camp" is rooted into the imperial "family", sometimes quite literally.
-
You gotta love how Rybar specifically marked Davydiv Brid as "failed Ukrainian offense" just 3 hours ago.
I guess whenever there's a special dedicated mark on russian maps - it means "we are totally effed"
-
A historic event here. For the first time in 8.5 years of war common russians actually did something to help Ukraine.
-
52 minutes ago, Huba said:
I think we are way overestimating the power of UA winter. First, global warming is a thing, and the weather is on average much less severe than it used to be. I recall months long periods of negative temperatures and snow lying around, right now it's no longer the case - you get maybe 2 weeks of that per year. In general, mud is much more annoying during winters now than snow. Granted, I live 2K km from Donbas, but I bet the pattern has to be at least somehow similar. Kharkiv is on average 4C colder than my city.
Second, when you look at typical temperatures in UA, it is not that bad at all. There might be periods of nasty weather, with uber cold continental air coming in, but on average it's really not that horrible. It is of course way different in the mountainous areas, but all the fighting takes place in the low positioned flatlands.
Perhaps some of our Ukrainian users could shed a bit of light on that? @Haiduk @krazeIs going around the countryside on snow scooter during the winter possible at all?
winters are random and unpredictable in Ukraine. You can have below zero temps and zero snow resulting in the solid frozen ground one week - and the very next one it's like +1C and a massive wet snow dump which turns everything into mud, then suddenly it's -10C - 20C and a knee-deep snow. And then it's +4-+6C temps and sunny days.
-
8 hours ago, Grossman said:
Biden was criticised heavily for the sudden withdrawal from Afghanistan, end of August 2021, last year. It could have been done better, agreed, but the theory I have is that the US had very early intel that the Russians were going to invade Ukraine. In the US book this was home turf, as compared to Afghanistan, and the US didn't want to be "deployed" in 2 conflicts at the same time. Hence the immediate pull out in Afghanistan. Biden never said why it was done, but then he wouldn't.
Furthermore apart from what Combatintman pointed out - Afghanistan was US boots on the ground using military technology Ukraine isn't getting at all. There are no american infantry, tanks, APCs, planes, choppers in Ukraine. Only arty, but in Afghanistan there were no artillery intensive battles that required similar numbers to what we have here.
If there would've been a plan to stay in Afghanistan - it wouldn't mess with supplies to Ukraine in any way.
-
2 hours ago, poesel said:
I don't think Navalny is still alive because of Putin. Just the contrary: he is alive because he is the only Putin alternative that can be sold to the west. My guess is that non-Putin groups hold their hand over him so that he can be useful later.
I’m not having illusions about Navalny himself. He is a politician and as thus opportunistic. If he is the way out of this, so be it. Let him be judged by his actions.
Or is there a (better & realistic) alternative?
Is what I mean. He most likely has protection from some group near putin.
Russia is an empire. Throne can only be held by an emperor. An emperor can't be democratic or liberal by definition so in this regard it's hard to know what alternative can even be considered better. Whoever replaces putin will need to keep waging expansionist wars to keep an empire together.
-
1 minute ago, Bulletpoint said:
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63118050
"Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov says his three sons, aged 14, 15 and 16, will soon travel to the Ukraine front line to fight with Russian forces. "
How about going there, himself, and show them how it's done?
But he did. He already filmed himself "in Ukraine" in front of his gas station network in Chechnya, advertising it. His boys are now mature enough to finally do the same.
-
2 hours ago, panzermartin said:
Wasn't he hospitalized with life threatening poisoning in Germany? Why should Russia go that far in his "acting".
We have to keep in mind Russia is like all the other countries. It has national interests. No Russian politician, nationalist or leftist Marxist is going to just give back Crimea, a russian populated area of huge strategic and symbolic value. They are going to fight for it untill the end (of Russia as we know it) . They have been colliding with the West, Ottomans etc over Crimea for centuries. Behind the ethics wrapping, it's just another imperialistic war of the great powers. In retrospect its not that much different than 1850 (except nuclear)
Of course he isn't acting - but it's obvious putin and his cronies find him a lot more valuable than people, who were bringing putin billions just yesterday. And it's what I find weird. Bridges with the West are burned so Navalny getting shived by a "random inmate" would've cost putin literally nothing. Unless Navalny has his use. And since we even hear Navalny's statements, despite being in a FSB cage - it means he does.
As for Crimea being a "russian populated area" - it wasn't until 1944 when natives got deported to die in Siberia. And it's why stuff like Crimea shouldn't happen again anywhere else and why Crimea can't be allowed to remain in russian hands.
-
42 minutes ago, Hister said:
Can someone please explain to me why Navalny would be a bad choice for a Russian president? I remember reading you in the know guys had many criticisms about him. He was a hardline nationalist, imperialist in the beginning and then like a chameleon changed his tune to be more in line with the Western expectations or something? What is his deal? Thank you.
Because Navalny fully supported actions of Russia when he was playing the role of the "controlled opposition" (the imaginary state-allowed opposition so that the West wouldn't be complaining too much since Russia pretends to be "democratic" and all). He made really derogatory comments about Georgians and about Ukrainians, he was supportive of the war in 2008 and of Crimea annexation - while everything was going well for him and Russia faced zero consequences.
However after russian invasion of Donbass and ever increasing sanctions - at some point he had a major falling out with putin and was sent to prison. So of course now that he is in a bad position - he realizes his only chance of improving it is to pretend he's all "truly" liberal and pro-Western so he has at least some "allies" of worth.
His real position was pre-prison and it was imperialistic one. Everything he says now is only to save his sorry ***. Even then there's still a question you got to ask yourself - in Russia people "walked out of the window" for much less in the past 7 months. Why is Navalny still fine?
-
20 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:
I wonder what Petraeus - a former commander of US Central Command - thinks the Russians will do in response to the US launching a massive attack to completely destroy their army and airforce.
if russians are already firing nukes at that point - it doesn't really matter. If US acts - they fire nukes at US, if US does not act - everybody with nukes start using nukes to steal territories from other countries and... eventually fire nukes at US because while that can of worm is closed for everyone - even US-hating crazies keep their nuclear boners in check.
-
33 minutes ago, dan/california said:
Navalny stakes his claim for Western support as the next leader of Russia. 100% denouncement of the War Against Ukraine, and Russian imperialism generally. Does he believe actually believe that? Who knows? but a Russian leader who has even said it once would be a rather large improvement. And of course has to live through the war and a few other details.
putin from '99 also pretended he is pro-West.
What really matters is what Navalny said before he annoyed Vlad so much he got poisoned and imprisoned - and that was him supporting occupation of new Georgian territories in 2008 and supporting occupation of Crimea where he basically told us to forget about it if he becomes president. And this is where he was honest because he faced no consequences.
He certainly should not be supported or even trusted by anyone.
-
2 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:
I challenge you to back up this assertion with credible documentary sources beyond your 'chat' group. If not, you are entirely sh*tposting at this point.
"According to researchers, during 1943-1945 about 4.5 million Ukrainians became Red Army soldiers. After June 1944, the Soviet Red Army consisted of almost 40% of Ukrainians. The losses of the Ukrainian people during World War Two account for 40-44% of the total losses of the USSR."
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1st_Ukrainian_Front
How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?
in Combat Mission Black Sea
Posted
They missed the other object too, hitting Akhmetov's tower instead (photos are public already).
Their missiles are really **** at precision, but to kill civilians you don't need precision either.
No objects in Shevchenko park though.