Grigb
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Posts
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Days Won
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Posts posted by Grigb
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5 minutes ago, dan/california said:
NYT bothered to report on Murz's demise. They must be feeling some pressure to balance the bad headline from yesterday.
"Military blogger", FFS.
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36 minutes ago, kimbosbread said:
Why not fine Transnistrian brandy?
I am convinced that I will taste the drink, and I prefer gin.
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7 minutes ago, panzermartin said:
Yeah, that was Zelensky's and the West's mistake in the first place. To promote the counteroffensive with directors cut videos, to brag about the wunderwaffen Leopards, Bradleys, Himars etc and publicly promote the idea that the goal was to reach Azov and kick the Russians out of Crimea.
Here we go again. If you make your enemy believe that something big is occurring, he is more likely to commit all he was hiding earlier, letting you to attack them with artillery/himars. In brief, Ru panicked and ordered hidden artillery batteries to begin fire, revealing their location to UKR CB.
7 minutes ago, panzermartin said:Even Russians believed that and created multiple zones of defense on Crimeas bottleneck.
The RU idea of trying defense in depth emerged as a result of a review of mistakes made during the UKR Kharkiv offensive. It did not benefit them as much as you believe since they eventually rejected the defensive approach.
7 minutes ago, panzermartin said:The results (while not so disastrous) really discouraged the public in the West
I don't see any evidence that the pro-UKR public has changed its views. I see that the anti-UKR public has become louder. Everyone else is experiencing an emotional roller coaster, which is perfectly natural. They get hyped when they hear the positive news.
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29 minutes ago, The_Capt said:
Going to lay this one at the feet of all those who declared loudly and uncompromisingly that winning this war must mean 100% of pre-2014 Ukraine is re-taken and Russia is effectively crushed - this is where that amateur dangerous narrative gets us. If we frame victory as a something that large, rife with hazards, then anything less is defeat. This blatantly violates the principle that all war is negotiation. It creates a strategic binary box of our own making.
This of course can create either positive or negative effect. "War is lost, so why keep dumping good money after bad?" Or, "wow, we had better get our act together!" I guess we will have to see which one happens.
Let us have a bet. If the war ends without Russia withdrawing from Ukrainian land, I will send you a bottle of gin (not cheap, but nice). If it ends with full RU withdrawal, you will send me a bottle of gin.
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6 minutes ago, Butschi said:
My feeling is that you can clear the sky all you want, as long as there are minefields covered by dispersed ATGM teams and drones (FPV and recon), you still won't get anywhere.
ATGM teams and drones are not the primary UKR issue. UKR drones can deal with ATGM teams. UKR can effectively neutralize RU drones at the place of their choosing (they are doing it in Krynki). Mines are the problem, but they can be dealt with.
UKR main problems are Gliding bombs, Helicopter and Airplane ATGMs (plus luck off shells for offensive operation). They cannot practically deal with them at all.
6 minutes ago, Butschi said:Re: hitting operational level targets: Given the risk (there would still be all sorts of AA systems around), does Ukraine gain more capabilities than they already have using HIMARs & Co (and maybe Taurus at some point)?
UKR are risking launching HIMARs & Co. Effectiveness of RU AD is exaggerated. There are ways to deal with them.
6 minutes ago, Butschi said:does Ukraine gain more capabilities than they already have using HIMARs & Co (and maybe Taurus at some point)?
AFAIR UKR explanation, they will gain more flexibility for striking (different platforms have different operational limitations). And it will complicate RU options in countering UKR platforms.
6 minutes ago, Butschi said:So my impression so far was that F16s are just the next Wunderwaffe that won't fundamentally change the situation.
Am I mistaken?
Yes.
1) Literally nobody calls F-16 Wunderwaffe except you.
2) After Patriot downed a few of RU planes in the Kherson direction, RU suspended glide bombing for a few days and considerably reduced bombing activity for almost a month. They only lately resumed bombing at the same intensity.
Once Patriot assisted A-50 in becoming a submarine, RU stopped patrolling the Ukrainian border. They currently patrol around 200 kilometers farther. As a result, they lost radar control over mainland Ukraine and had limited radar coverage over their own troops in the southern operating zone (Kherson and Zaporojye).
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Grubnik (Murz close friend and head of the RU Volunteers main supply network)
QuoteSo, naïve people, Andrei [Murz] did not discuss 5% of the issues that he was aware of. Which we were aware of. He always sought to behave diplomatically behind the scenes, rather than taking the garbage [to the public].
Basically, what Murz wrote is understatement and not overstatement.
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1 minute ago, Kraft said:
2 Bradleys and one Leopard 2 were lost in the last couple days afaik
I haven't seen captured Leo yet. Instead of Bradly, they now show M113.
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1 hour ago, zinz said:
https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-20-2024
ISW has not seen any indication of that. Besides the cenit position
The same here. I have seen few POWs and the same one damaged Bradley everywhere.
But there was screw up at Zenit position (the most difficult position to retreat from). And possibly at Koksohim but it is unverified.
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14 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:
Murz was kind of bloody idealist, I am curious how many similar crazy behaviours we can expect from other Russian nationalists when reality come to them.
We should not expect any more suicides since, as you mentioned, he was an idealist. Any other RU Nat in his position would swallow his pride (which is not a huge thing for Russians) and survive. More crucially, any other RU Nat would unlikely place himself in the same circumstances. Murz issued an ultimatum to the propagandist, who belonged to a powerfull (relatively speaking) propaganda network. No other RU Nat would do that.
However, what we should expect is increased disfranchisement of RU Nats and their quiet exodus from the war.
Quote...So, it appears that the moment has come to state that the system in which the Strelkovs [plural] are in prison for nothing and the Murzs [plural] are killing themselves out of desperation.
But societal dandruff [human garbage] like the bastard Julia Lozanova [propagandist with whom Murz had a conflict] to the finest instances of genius [Shoigy - sarcasm] are eternally in chocolate [blameless].
Such a system is doomed. This is what individuals who think about the future should consider [now].QuoteHowever, your death was not in vain.
I am confident that it will highlight even more vividly to everyone the rottenness, hypocrisy, venality, and insignificance of those who now think of themselves as the masters of our country.QuoteMurz was at the foundation of the Russian world, and it began to crumble!!!
But sadly, not noticed by many. A humble man began to lose hope for victory. He sees Russia's flow of resources to the West and doesn't understand why he's fighting... [bla-bla-bla about all problems Murz wrote]. Murz was aware of and seen all of this, and more. That's why he protested so strongly.
Other Russian men do it more quietly.
Someone stops conducting humanitarian work; someone, after hearing from those who are really fighting the truth about the unpromising and disparaging condition of affairs in the army, changes his opinion about volunteering. Someone like Murz battled it till the end, attempting to figure out why there was no supply [to troops], and he was fired at best, or perished in a penal battalion at worst.
There are thousands of these stories. And they've been going on for quite some time.
We are losing the Russian backbone, those who defend the Motherland [and also] who think soberly [about RU]. Those who refuse to ignore issues.Murz's protest suicide is a symbol of the scale of [that] trend: the collapse of the foundation of the Russian world. When an ordinary [Russian] muzhik is "grinded" to nothing.
14 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:Also from my observations of his activity, his posts were usually 80% about conditions in which former LDPR and various PMC companies from his sector fight, not necessarly entire Russian army as such. In fact he often expressed he know little of other fronts, but it was long time ago since I reguralrly read all his posts (early phase of war), so perhaps things changed from that time.
The crucial point is that the situation in an LDPR grouping is the best in terms of combat capability on average due to the presence of experienced LDPR commanders and specialists (such as Murz). Furthermore, there is an extensive and sophisticated RU Volunteer supply network there. Other directions are worse, that's why we should use Murz info as sort of best-case data.
For example, Donetsk grouping recently pushed UKR out of Avdiivka. Kherson grouping, despite having supposedly one of the best RU commanders and not insignificant resources, still battles something like hundred UKR marines in the village. Zaporozhy grouping banging Robotne bulge. North Luhansk grouping is banging villages around Kupyansk.
14 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:Anyway, it seems that despite nominal inclusion of LDPR and partition of Wagner and other PMC into one regular force, conditions and inter-services bahaviour changed little. "Grisnakh more important than Ugluk, Ugluk do what he says or pay with his life".
That's RU state for you.
However, there is a rift between LDPR fighters and RU regulars. LDPR are very dissatisfied with RU state traditions. We knew about it before from GUR phone intercepts but now it has started to spill in public domain.
Former LDPR fighter from Donetsks
QuoteI'll take it out of the comment [section and put it here]. Don't be angry when I address you as "Russiancy" [lightly derogatory author invented nickname for Russians]. I love Russia and Russians very much, their great culture and art, literature, breadth of soul, valor and honor. For me, since childhood, Russia has been the heir to the former greatness of the USSR, the now inaccessible achievements of that great civilization, the remnants of which we are now defending with weapons in our hands. All my life I've taken it for granted that Donbass is Russia. And went to war with the Ukrainian fascists in 2014, to return Donbass to return to Russia as well.
And now we are already part of Russia.
And I don't want to associate myself with the majority of those who came from the Mainland to teach me how to be Russian. I endlessly mourn the loss of my Free Pirate Republic, where we fought and worked on our specific [to us] tasks significantly more effectively and better than the Russians. Here we achieved what they couldn't even dream about [comms thanks to Murz and a like]. I look at these stupid people who knock their heads [at enemy] and do not understand that it is impossible to defeat the enemy with advanced certificates, meaningless sabotagin [us] statistics and mountains of waste paper. I watch how [state] visitors [from RU] create [local] authorities in the liberated territories using accomplices of ukrofascists and pedophiles - and I am ashamed to look into the eyes of those who waited for Russia to come here, who send to us coordinates [of enemy targets], I am telling them - do not associate me with them, I am not one of them. I look at the looters who are stealing Russian budgets as well as our industrial facilities [RU occupational administration love to dismantle and sell for scrap UKR plants and factories] - and I don't see them [as my] compatriots. I am a D-E-N-E-R [RU nackname for DPR people] from the Free Pirate Republic, I am an inferior Russian, I'm sorry.
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26 minutes ago, dan/california said:
If he moves in the kind of ultranationalist/DPR circles I think he does, he has probably seen 75% of the people he knew two years ago die or get crippled for life in the "Special Military Operation". He wouldn't be the fist person to go around the bend in such circumstances. Especially as he is better placed than almost anyone to understand how unlikely Russia is gain anything that matters from this war, at least relative to the bill.
Murz was a prominent member of the DPR and ultranationalist movement. Indeed, he has seen a lot of dead comrades. And not all of their deaths were glorious. For example, last year, his close buddy Nazi Bereg (the infamous guy with the UKR scull) was murdered by Wagnerites during an attempted robbery (Wagnerites were ambushing and robbing mobiks returning from frontlines). The murder was covered up by Wagnerite higher ups (rumors were that Prig himself).
On the other hand, Murz, was a die-hard left-wing RU Nat. For him, it was a total war against Western capitalists who cruelly murders innocent Russians. He would never stop.
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Nesmyan (civilian Girkin) about sanctions
QuoteAs you can see, Chinese banks have stopped accepting payments from Russian banks under Western sanctions. However, non-sanctioned banks may still transfer money to and from China - there are no restrictions here. So for now, the end of the world [for RU] has been postponed.
Difficulties with payments occur in Turkey (oil companies have not been able to receive their money for three weeks) and in the UAE. Restrictions are imposed everywhere, and of the same kind as in China - not extremely strict, but greatly complicating life and increasing the number of links in the chains of intermediaries.
This is the strategy of sanctions. When the Russian leadership tells stories that the Russian economy was not destroyed, it is lying - in reality, no one is doing this. It is the exact opposite. But [they] make it as costly as possible and reduce budget revenues, depriving this very leadership of resources - sanctions do this this very well. The increase in costs is accumulating, incomes are falling, export volumes are falling due to increasing inefficiency, and, accordingly, production is falling. The main thing is not to collapse [it quickly], but [slowly and] gradually.
The frog is being cooked slowly, that's why she says that everything is okay, everything is fine with her, she even feels warm.
Economy - Russia is wining on this one
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Meanwhile Ru soldier Guzenko aka 13th about Shoigy
Quote...Blyat, it doesn't amuse me anymore.
This poor Avdiivka was being taken for almost ten years, eight years of positional warfare, and two years of bloody assaults, you'll be ****ed up [knowing how many] people were killed, Vovka from my team is still lies at unknown place somewhere there, almost a year on the Avdiivka fortifications, they couldn't find his body. For how long it will contine?This one [Shoigy] should talk about reindeer husbandry against the background of the yurt, but he thinks he's a Subedai.
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Quote
[beginning of the cited document]
To the Chief military prosecutor of the Russian Federation Petrov V.G.Appeal
I, [the applicant's full name can be viewed in an electronic copy of the document sent by the soldier to the GWP via the website on February 6, 2024, incoming number - 405086], serving on mobilization in regiment 1487, unit mail 95411 in the 2nd battalion of the 6th company of the 1st platoon in Donetsk, under the command of the 1st Army Corps of the DPR army, I ask you to conduct review for the following reasons:
1. Provision of weapons and transport
From 01/19/2023, the moment of arrival in the SMO zone to the present day, our battalion does not have a single AGS or mortar to carry out effective offensive actions.
There is also a complete lack of transport for offensive actions or evacuation and transportation of people.2. Rotation
At the moment, less than 30% of the personnel remained in the regiment, and to this day there has been no rotation or replenishment of the regiment's personnel.
Most of them are wounded, killed or missing.3. Medical care
My own example, I have a concussion, I came to the the regiment's medical officer about my injury, to what this serviceman said that the concussion was not considered a wound and did not put me on the list of wounded after completing a combat mission.
So I went to the hospital on my own, and I was prescribed medicines that I [had to] purchased at my own expense and a battalion medic gave them to me.
When after treatment it was time to get a [category] 100 certificate of injury in the [HQ] dugout, the regiment's medical officer refused, so I turned to the [local] doctors, and they gave it to me.
At the moment, I have received a payment from the President of the Russian Federation and from city G.St. Petersburg, but I arranged these payments myself with the help from the DPR army soldiers who took me to hospitals and for medicines.
I (the applicant's full name can be viewed in an electronic copy of the document sent by the fighter to the GWP via the website on February 6, 2024, incoming number - 405086), did not pass the VVC [military medical commission] after being wounded, and I did not have any rehabilitation (even rest from service).
There are a lot of such cases not registered byt the regiment's medical officer [looks like med officer has order from the top not to do that]. There are a lot of wounded in the regiment, many servicemen were sent after concussion or shrapnel wound without medical comission and rehabilitation right back into battle where many died.
4. [Temporal] Transfer of the military regiment to other units
In November 2023, the regiment's command transferred 300 people to the command of the PMCs Veterans [sub part of PMC Redut - RU MOD analogue of Wagner], at the moment almost all of them are killed or wounded. PMCs Veterans command [and control] us in all sectors of the Avdiivka front. The message [we got] that they are the chiefs here and it comes from the command of the 1st Army Corps of the DPR army, in particular, [from the officer with] the call sign “Crimea".
These military personnel of the PMCs “Veterans,” and I'm not afraid to use following word, are RABBLE that consist of former prisoners, drug addicts and looters, hiding behind the backs of the mobilized of our regiment. They “carried out assault operations” without being present on the ground. After we occupied a tactical frontier, they came, shot a video report, took weapons, armor plates from the dead, everything valuable, both from the servicemen of the Russian Army and from the enemies, and left to the "grey" zone leaving us on the line of contact.
(end of the cited document)
The report explains how RU army "manages" to remain in the fight thus far.
P.S. Indeed, Murz left full blown suicide note. Except to get a feel of the mood.
QuoteToday I talked to a man who, knowing me a little, started right away with words “You can't change that [now]. When the elections are held, the changes will begin.” I did not tell him the meme “Putin and expensive gasoline – 20 years of solving the problem", I let him check it himself. Check this meme, Comrade Colonel.
Today, Comrade Colonel, on your orders, I was forced to delete a post from my telegram channel “They write to us from Yiannina.” And you were forced to give this order by your command, relying on the good old army collective responsibility. If he doesn't delete it, we won't give the supplies. Shells. Copters. New tanks and infantry fighting vehicles. And your command, was forced to do it by political prostitutes led by Vladimir Solovyov, who piss themselves to come and pull the trigger [themselves]. Well, I'll do it myself. I'll shoot myself if no one dares to take on this trivial matter. And you will be given tanks and copters.
It turned out that I cannot serve under your command, under the command of a man who took over a decapitated brigade in a critical situation in a critical area and “took care of” the situation, I cannot serve you and, at the same time, tell the truth, to demand that the military prosecutor's office in St. Petersburg listen to the soldier who was shell-shocked near Avdiivka. And, perhaps, to other soldiers like him, who have seen everything and know everything, but cannot tell because they are intimidated.
And this is how RU army learns from mistakes.
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Murz posted that he had a difficult talk with his military superior (brigade commander) and removed the post under direct order/threat. Next, he wrote something that may be considered a suicide note. But he did post something that looked like soldier's report. Looking into it.
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Interesting, it appears that the RU Nats (not Army) are coming to the conclusion that using flak suits with partial protection in addition to regular armor is currently optimal method to reduce assault infantry casualties caused by drone attacks. The suite consists of Kevlar sections that cover a large part of the body's non armor protected surface.
They tried flak blankets (ineffective), flak shields (too cumbersome for assault troops), and flak suits with complete body protection (too heavy and uncomfortable).
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In other news - Shoigy reported to Putin that they captured Krynki and cleared out the bridgehead. UKR soldier reported that cannon fodder is attacking blindly the bridgehead.
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Oh, looks like friendly comrades reached Murz - he deleted post with RU losses.
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1 minute ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:
Apparently Murz and his friends do not share the view there are only weak fortifications behind Avdieyevka. In Polish military twitter this has been a common opinion, that there are and that ZSU should have started making field fortifications all across the front at the latest in the late summer of 2023 and are now behind the curve.
Unfortunately, I am unable to determine what fortifications UKR has there (if any), as reports from both sides are contradicting each other. Let's hope they do have something significant.
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Murz posted comment of his colleague
QuoteI do not know if you understood what Murz wrote - but he very clearly formulated what everyone here feels with his liver [very clearly]. The withdrawal of enemy troops from Avdiivka is the sole right decision, given the "jumps" of the RU on Avdiivka, made on the principle of "make everything ready for the elections, otherwise they will scold [us]." Such attacks are a consequence of the absence of testosterone eggs deficiency in individuals who are called upon to report to the top about the incorrectness of decisions made. Although, I am absolutely sure, there are [some] worthy commanders. But that's not what we're talking about.
I will translate from Murz [speak] to the generally accepted one, although everything is clear to those who are here.[They - UKR] gave us Avdiivka. The combat-ready enemy units retreated to the defensive lines prepared in advance. The enemy was not destroyed or drained of blood [here means reserves] or weakened. The equipment was not destroyed. The enemy left without asking us, [but lukcily for us] just without [us] giving them an iPhones, in the best traditions [of Azov defender release].
The degenerates reported that we are continue to offense (in the area of the second or third echelons of defense, which were built for 8 years) but without supply routes for our own troops?. It is like - the enemy is running, let kick him the back more! And God forbids he stops, we will tear the poor wretches apart due to our kindness…
Now the facts.
The Novogrodovka-Progress-Ocheretino defense line has been built by Ukrainian troops since the beginning of the fighting for Donetsk in 2014. Retreating there does not make the troops in AFU vulnerable in any way. They were vulnerable on the way there, but how much do we see the burned columns of Ukrainians?.. Non. Why? Because there was no isolation of the battlefield until the last minutes of the battles. The enemy could move fully and freely to Avdiivka, Lastochkino, Tonenkoe..Can we move far forward and beat the fleeing non-brothers till Kiev? No, we can't. There are no roads. And there are no engineering services capable of solving this problem. Or rather, they are somewhere [else] - but that is very far away. I haven't seen any [here]. ["Far away and haven't see any [here]" usualy implies nothing of sorts exists]
The task "go and get a foothold" is being condacted on personal enthusiasm. Until recently, ammo, food and water were delivered by caravans of people dragging 20-50 kilograms on their own hump. Calculate the distance to the Chemist [Avdiivka urban zone] yourself.Well, now, knowing these facts, re-read what Murz wrote again. Not about losses – you cannot do anything about death, but about those who allowed these deaths. They will with a probability of 146% will be promoted. Think about who is lying to you and whom you can listen to [and trust]. And then draw [you own] conclusions.
Where are the long-range mining systems? Where is the long-range reconnaissance? Where are the POWs, ****?.. Surprise, promptness, coordination?
Oh yes, the 17th [election] is close. A small victorious operation. It is being felt very clearly in Donbas. There is an ominous spirit of [under the table] agreement in the air. [Under the table agreement is RU Nat conspiracy that Kremlin wants to sell L-DPR to UKR in exchange of end of war]
[EDIT] Funny story: Murz earlier declared that unless some RU propagandists (from the Guardians faction that badmouth him for several days) met his demands, he would publish the paper of the soldier (who attempted to submit it to the RU military prosecution office) today at 17:00. Guardians were ignoring him.
It is 18:12, and he is quiet. I'm really worried for him.
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1 hour ago, Bulletpoint said:
I don't think this is new information though?
There were two lines, each with two pipes (A & B). Nordstream 1 had both pipes destroyed, Nordstream 2 only had one pipe destroyed.
New information is Putin statement that the pipe is actually in fully operational condition and can start working shortly.
Interestingly Putin himself said the following: "Say [to us], "We want to receive." [You will] start receiving it tomorrow. A week is needed."
Now, in RU we do not normally say "start receiving it tomorrow. A week is needed." That's two different time periods. Usually we say "start receiving it soon. A week is needed." Two different time periods in short span usually indicate that a speaker first disclosed something that he was not supposed to disclose.
So, the pipe is in very good condition and capable of starting operation within a week or even just a day.
1 hour ago, Bulletpoint said:But, interestingly, there were four explosions...To me , this suggests that whoever was behind the bombings intended all four pipes to be destroyed, but that they made a mistake and hit the same pipe twice. Probably because they were in a hurry and there was poor visibility in the water.
That would be reasonable assessment before Putin statement. Now we know the fourth explosion caused at most only artificial damage, most likely no damage at all.
The saboteurs were unlucky twice, and in both situations, the unluck was extremely advantageous to RU.
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RDK just published post that they were working on freeing Navalny.
QuoteSince the beginning of October 2023, we, together with our supporters from among the employees of the law enforcement agencies of the Russian Federation, have been developing a plan to rescue Alexei Navalny from correctional colony No. 6 in the Vladimir region, ferry him to the border with Ukraine, where he was supposed to be transferred to the RDK recon group in order to evacuate to the territory of Ukraine...
They described a rather detailed plan. It looks reasonable for me.
[EDIT] for example here webcam shots
[EDIT 2] Looks like these guys are more powerful than we thought.
A foreword by RU partisan group
Quote"According to the plan, Alexei Navalny was to be retaken from the convoy on the way to IK-3 [prison] in the Yamalo-Nenets region by our group, and then together with him we immediately had to go to the border territory with Ukraine, to meet with RDK recon group to cross the border and to obtain the asylum. Unfortunately, the security measures taken by the FSIN [RU Prison service] and the FSB to prevent such scenarios turned out to be quite effective. The date of Alexey's movement was constnatly changing and that is the public was kept in the dark. The date and time of the movement were postponed several times, but at the end it began unexpectadly, by direct oral order of the head of the FSIN and our group did not have time to move to the area of the planned start of the operation.
At the date of Alexei's death, the plan was in the stage of processing for IK-3. Nevertheless, we are ready to share some of the data and photographic materials that we received during the preparation."
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2 minutes ago, Ales Dvorak said:
Got it, thanks.
As soon as I asked you whether you apply the same standards to RU public you ran away.
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1 hour ago, Ales Dvorak said:
If we were in court room then you would need solid evidence.
We are not in the court room. And we are not in court procedure.
1 hour ago, Ales Dvorak said:Still I can't see your solid facts, just your words.
Repeat after me the following statements:
- The most important for Putin pipe was not blowen
- The same pipe is actually in fully working condition
Do you deny the existence of these two facts?
1 hour ago, Ales Dvorak said:I never said USA did it
I never asked you who did it
1 hour ago, Ales Dvorak said:so why I have provide you with screenshots of asking the same thing from RU public?
You declared you accept only solid evidence. Now to continue conversation with you I need solid evidence that you indeed accept only solid evidence. It is useless to have a conversation with a lying pro-Ru hypocrite
1 hour ago, Ales Dvorak said:Don't know what exactly I have to provide to you,
You do know as the text is very clear - Screenshots when you ask the same thing from RU public (for example screenshots of you asking RU public to provide credible source for Putin statement that US did it).
1 hour ago, Ales Dvorak said:but if this is your final conclusion so it be.
So, you do not make the same demands to RU public. Got it, thanks.
1 hour ago, Ales Dvorak said:While we are at gas...
I am at aftermath of Nord Stream explosions that benefited RU and Putin himself (that surviving pipe is his pet project). Where you are is not relevant to that.
How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?
in Combat Mission Black Sea
Posted
I would like to make a bet over something you belive is unreasonable (recapturing 100% of territory). I hold different opinion and ready to bet.
For different reasons this exact scenario I assess as unlikely and not ready to bet on it. There is second bet I can offer - the war ends with UKR victory (means RU withdrawal from 100% of UKR territory + official end of hostilities/peace agreement) in the timeframe: between 9 month and 15 months from now. All conditions above must be met for my victory. In all other cases it is your victory.
As 15 months is a long period then on 31 of December 2024, I will ask Steve to help us and make a decision if the overall situation has signs of possible UKR victory in time defined by me or not. In case the decision is negative (no signs of possible victory in time frame I defined) I will concede the defeat.
If there is disagreement on anything I will ask Steve to make the decision and will honor it.
The prize is a bottle of Gin (I suggest our own choosing because it is not about money and to avoid the hassle of finding the exact one required).