Grigb
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Posts posted by Grigb
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1 hour ago, LongLeftFlank said:
Wagner PMC spetsnaz-for-hire also operating up here.
Interestingly, all through human history, mercenaries tend *not* to be usable in high intensity / high casualty infantry combat situations like MOUT or forest combat, for the very reason that you can't spend your money if you're dead.
Wagnerites and other PMCs used by Ry MOD are not truly mercenaries. They are contract soldiers whose losses Russian MOD does not need to report.
During Chechen Wars Russians realized that even their elite infantry can suffer heavy losses hurting Russian military reputation (see Battle for Height 776 where Russian artillery destroyed vdv company). Instead of improving themselves they decided to create grey unit outside of the MOD, so the MOD can plausibly claim that the Russian military suffers no losses.
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10 hours ago, danfrodo said:
Hey Grigb, THANKS for your thoughts. I am really grateful for having an actual RU army veteran's opinions. And I sincerely hope they don't try to conscript you!
Sorry to disappoint but I am not Russian veteran. I was planning to become one and participated in two year study program of one of top Russian military college (Actually It was and still is top Russian military technical university) but instead of "graduation" (you would have to study technical disciplines few more years) I decided to quit because of my observation of how the system really works and what it can do.
If you study real Russian military history Bucha massacre will not come as surprise. Actually, it was not even the main event. Concentration camps with torture and execution conveyer would come later.
10 hours ago, danfrodo said:And I sincerely hope they don't try to conscript you!
After quitting I made sure that my medical records were corrected, and my mobilization level was severely restricted. Russian corruption is a feature, not a bug. Then after a couple of years I decided to leave completely. Obviously I have connections inside Russia and keeping an eye on what's going on there.
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1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:
Welcome to the forum and thanks for taking the time to register to contribute to this discussion!
Thank you. I am actually long time CM player (fell in love with CMBO) and forum reader as well. But I avoided commenting because until recently my opinion that Russians military sucks big time was not very popular.
1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:It seems that my reminder that Russia doesn't have endless artillery capabilities was well timed
If we are seeing the tip of the iceberg, we're likely going to have corroborating evidence in the next 1-2 weeks in the form of less artillery strikes front wide, shorter and/or less effective uses in key areas, or something else that indicates a tempo change that isn't readily explained.
If I am not mistaken Murz said somewhere else that they started to compensate lack of proper infantry by increasing number of tubes used for assault support leaving some areas defenseless. For example, for Popasna assault they left Donetsk defenseless artillery wise.
1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:The comments about the weapons taken out of storage is of particular interest to me. I've always presumed that equipment like this goes into storage in whatever state it was in prior to being decommissioned. That's the lazy and cheap way of doing, which is apparently SOP for Russia. Which means these mothballed systems run the gamut from "probably usable" to "going to get someone killed using it".
AFAIK It is much worse - when weapons go to storage they are usually cannibalized for spare parts. After that nobody really checks or maintain them. Any auditor/controller is simply bribed. Possibly that is the reason they do not inspect guns beforehand - otherwise they will have to report the scale of the problem and face the consequences.
1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:The other interesting point here is this indicates that Russia has run through it's "ready" inventory and is now having to dig around for replacements. Whether this is because of battlefield losses or wearing them out, it doesn't matter in the near term. A gun out of service is a gun out of service. Obviously long term guns that are worn out can be brought back to the battlefield eventually. But in a timeframe that matters? I don't think that's very likely.
I do not believe they had a large "ready" inventory or any inventory at all. Do not underestimate incompetence of Russian officers. 20 years ago when I almost became one I was very flabbergasted at the whole system and decided not to proceed.
1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:This sort of bottleneck problem is not specific to Russia, though I do think Russia is likely less capable of muscling through it quickly as other countries. Therefore, unless Russia is in possession of a magic wand I don't see them getting many guns taken out of the fight back into the fight within a timeframe that matters to this war.
Oh, I hope one day somebody translate all Murz rants about how inefficient Russian Army is. Only Wagnerites/PMC or LDNR+Russian volunteers may be capable of doing that fast. But regular Russian Army on a mass scale? No. Just No.
Personally, from my limited experience with Russian army + what I know from reading Russians I believe your predictions are spot on. It is just Russian society (and the army as part of that society) is like pressure cooker - it can withstand a lot of internal pressure without huge visible cracks for a time being. Then it explodes when nobody expects.
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Just decided to add my couple of cents.
3 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:We must keep in mind that Russia is not immune to shortages either. At some point Russia might start running out of some calibers of standard ammo. Nobody knows when that might happen, but ammo isn't endless for anybody.
Infamous Murz recently stated that LDNR artillery is extremely low on 122mm ammo and Russian Western Military District is running out of 122mm stock. They are urgently converting LDNR artillery to 152mm caliber (D-20 guns from Russian military storages).
As result:
- LDNR is not able to capitalize on fall of Mariupol due to some units are out of 122mm ammo and some units are in the midst of conversion to 152mm.
- LDNR CB capabilities around Donetsk are negligible now and because of that UKR artillery is highly active there.
3 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:Plus, at some point Russia will run into problems with conventional artillery pieces being too worn to stay in the fight. Russia has the capability to recondition them, definitely. The problem for Russia is that such work can't be done if the systems are in the field popping off rounds. Does Russia have enough spare systems, especially SPGs, sitting in Russia that can be rotated in while others are withdrawn for overhaul? I don't think so.
Steve
Murz also stated during fire missions they are encountering multiple problems with 152mm guns (D-20) taken from storage. Interestingly, his statement implies they (LDNR and Russians) are unable (unwilling) to thoroughly inspect these guns before sending them to the fight.
If we are seeing the tip of the iceberg, we're likely going to have corroborating evidence in the next 1-2 weeks in the form of less artillery strikes front wide, shorter and/or less effective uses in key areas, or something else that indicates a tempo change that isn't readily explained.
How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?
in Combat Mission Black Sea
Posted
Stop lying - NATO has no military strength to occupy and pacify Russia. Full stop.
NATO has no interest in fighting, occupying and pacifying Russia. Full stop.
If Russians are paranoid about NATO they should attend psychology sessions.
Bingo. You just admitted that NATO cannot win conventional war with Russia because Russia will escalate it to all out Nuclear war. NATO threat is just Russian paranoid imagination.
Grabbing somebody else land while killing people living there to create buffer state is a Hitler style war crime.
Size of Russian land and size of forces required to occupy and pacify it will not change.
Let me remind you that USSR was founded on idea of total western destruction. FYI that what Russians still want to do.