Grigb
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Posts posted by Grigb
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1 minute ago, Haiduk said:
Faces of probable shooters in Moscow - all from Ingushetia. It smelled like a "HE shugar" set by Chechens, controlled by FSB, when several houses were blown up with multiple victims. Let's see what Russia will claim in next days. Some of their officials already blame Ukraine. Next - "we need come together around our lovely strong president in his fight with world evil -> mobilization -> inner terror -> possible preparations to invasion in Baltia/Poland"
These photographs could be forgeries; the RU claim that these particular men have already been killed.
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Anyway,
2 minutes ago, Haiduk said:Russians in ecstasy of FAB-3000. Long text on one milblogger (screen with translations) - he believes, Russia will change own way of war and will hammer UKR strongpoints and defense lines with these super-bombs, instead to waste personnel and vehicles in useless attacks under strikes of UKR drones.
According to their own experience in Aphanistan, a very large bomb is less effective than multiple smaller ones because the overall destruction area of the big bomb is smaller.
Clowns.
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2 minutes ago, dan/california said:
I can't get it to copy and paste to save my life but Medvedev just did a Telegram post that seemed to imply the Russians are going to blame it the Ukrainians regardless of what happened, and then go full Reichstag Fire with it. Of course it is Friday night in Moscow, and Medvedev may simply have already been to drunk/high to check what the party line actually is supposed to be.
The issue is that I see RU Nats are very confused. There isn't any sort of war frenzy per se yet (except from few total madmen like Medvedev).
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According to a new rumour, Russia is looking for five guys from Ingushetia (a Russian republic close to Chechnya).
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Interesting Quote
QuoteAccording to preliminary information, the terrorist attack involves an Islamic factor. Indirectly it is confirmed by the attackers' look, beards, and the fact that they did not try to hide their faces. However, it is worth mentioning that, according to witnesses, the militants did not yell any phrases during the attack, but rather attempted to push individuals into a specific concert rooms.
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According to FSB 40 dead and 100 wounded.
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The primary issue now is that, according to rumours, the attackers do not resemble Ukrainians but rather Chechens. Ru Nats are currently confused.
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12 minutes ago, Kinophile said:
Almost two hours later, Spec Forces still not on scene. Building is fully on fire.
RU Nat says Shpeznaz started clearing operations 30 minutes ago, which is at least an hour late.
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13 minutes ago, Butschi said:
Is it?
Yes. It is either you are ally or not.
13 minutes ago, Butschi said:NATO is a defensive alliance.
So, German gov will honor only what it labels defensive.
RU Nats
shellssend dozens of drones to hit Gdansk from Kaliningrad. RU gov declares they have nothing to do with that. German gov declares it will not get involved in any offensive actionsand Poland must swallow it.13 minutes ago, Butschi said:But when an ally gets involved in a war elsewhere (without getting a mandate or something from the other allies) and then wants to be defended by his allies, I dont think so.
So, for Germany US is not truly ally. Good that we are all on the same page.
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1 minute ago, Carolus said:
... are you aware of how article 5 works?
It seems you are not.
1 minute ago, Carolus said:It's not a criminal court case in which guilt has to be proven, so the standard of evidence is lower.
This relies on the US readiness to reveal intelligence sources to NATO heads of states, like Orban. Otherwise, you will have to trust the US claim that it was a RU submarine. Imagine Trump says RU submarine torpedoed out boat, but I will not disclose how I know it.
1 minute ago, Carolus said:But article 5 is not an automatism. And whichever head of government convenes for that meeting is aware of the gravity of what will be decided together.
So, the ultimate decision rests with the heads of state. We have Orban, we have Scholtz and possibly few others (Austrian). Can NATO overcome their opinion?
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34 minutes ago, Kraft said:
Aah I remember being told "its only a matter of time" half a year ago, silly me was pessimistic about the politician who has brickwalled new aid every step of the way for 2 years, now its suddenly "dont hold your breath", or to say it as Scholz does: "whatever it takes"
Though Germany position is... well, Germany position, the overall EU situation is not that bad in the long term (it's bad in short term).
I'm slowly summarizing RU Opposition economist Milov's recent report on the Russian economy. He stated that he recently visited the European Parliament and spoke to several EU MPs. There are both bad and good news:
- Bad news - EU is politically bickering around Ukraine assistance, also faster work (for example enforcing sanctions) is not possible due to democratic bureaucracy of EU parliament. And it is unlikely to improve in the short term.
- Good news - EU core politicians know the seriousness of war and about their bickering and slowness problem. They are committed to resolve it in the long term (long term means around year).
He cited an example: he was privately told that the EU needs to recruit 50 professionals to successfully stop Russia from dodging sanctions. However, this requires passing money through EU democratic procedures, which is extremely lengthy owing to the politicking of MPs from various nations. But eventually, the EU will hire them and cut RU off. In a year.
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3 minutes ago, Carolus said:
.... article 5 is a legal clause.
Yes, there is also a lot of symbolism attached to it and for good reason.
But it is ultimately a legal procedure which requires legal justification to invoke. A legal procedure which all nations of the treaty agreed to follow as per its carefully worded letter.
So, if an unknown submarine (from RU) torpedoes US boat in Pacific Ocean will Germany gets involved or (given RU denial and US unwillingness to disclose intelligence sources publicly) just say it was probably China, so not our problem?
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4 minutes ago, Butschi said:
I'm no expert but if a NATO member sends soldiers outside of NATO territory to participate in a war and then gets targeted by the other party, why should that trigger article 5? If the US defends Taiwan and China strikes the US, would that trigger article 5?
An attack on an ally is reason enough to get involved.
4 minutes ago, Butschi said:...but it's really up to each nation to decide if they want get actively involved in war (outside of NATO obligations, of course), I think. Just because France and UK do it doesn't mean everyone else is suddenly obliged to do it, too.
What you're saying is that the German government values legal justifications over alliances. And it begs the question: what if the German government finds a legal justification not to respect Article 5?
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6 hours ago, Vet 0369 said:
Hmm. 40+50+10+10 = 110%. How does that work?
My fault. it is 30+50+10+10. Instead of getting regular sleep, I'm reading and translating at night. So, mistakes happen.
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9 minutes ago, Kraft said:
Every marine complains they drop nonstop bombs, from the average drone footage coming out of there, Id agree with them.
Avdiivkas inner parts are more intact despite daily 70+bombs, many buildings still had roofs.
Avdiivka is significantly bigger. And not the whole Avdiivka was bombed.
All stories about Krynky is hell is nice to hear until they tell you that there are about 60-100 marines against:
QuoteLast year, three tactical groups, numbering almost two brigades, were specially formed to squeeze the AFU from the left bank in Krynki . These groups operated on the flanks, from the Kazachy Lageria-Krynki, Korsunka-Krynki and frontally from route 2206 through the forest.
In addition, the command of the RU continued to build up the Dnepr group of troops and if in November 2023 there were 64 thousand men, now [01.02.24] it is 77 thousand men. In addition, the Dnepr grouping has:
Tanks – about 400 units;
AFV – 1 100 units;
Tube artillery – 500 units;
MLRS – up to 100 units.Regarding nonstop drone bombing - Magyar:
QuoteTotal score: 2884 / 2235
(detected / destroyed) ️ ️ 77.4%Regarding gliding bombs, yes, recently RU decided that it is safe now to bomb Krynki as usual. Only recently - 10.02.24
QuoteFurthermore, at its own risk, Russian tactical aviation is attempting to reach normal levels of KAB use in the Kherson region, both on the left and right banks.
Nobody says it is easy there. But when a few dozen defend ruins of village against two brigades that Putin watches...
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23 minutes ago, Kinophile said:
Didn't know about the Archer, that's a great pity.
- Abrams got destroyed because UKR committed Abrams at Avdiivka direction to battle in recent days.
- NASAMS got destroyed as part of the intensification of RU campaign against that illusive Patriot.
- Caesar looks like Bohdana.
- Archer is a combination of two videos. First conveniently stops at range when EW usually disables the drone. Second video, well, is not clear. And initially only the first video was published in TG. Looks like somebody realised that it is not convincing enough and decided to "improve" it.
23 minutes ago, Kinophile said:Looks like the Rus have dedicated a significant effort to discovery, and tracking and destruction of these particular weapons.
They always dedicate significant effort to destroy foreign weapons. RU general admission western weapons superiority is a sure sign they caused RU tremendous pain that cannot be denied.
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3 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:
And of course UKR command has much better info than this armchair general. I just hope they are defending that place because it actually makes sense on the ground and not for political reasons.
There is no political reason in Krynki. There was a huge political reason to defend Avdiivka.
3 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:Looking at the Russian side, it does seem foolish to me that they expend so much energy trying to wipe out that small foothold. When they could just contain it and shell and drone it all day long.
RU arty cannot shell it properly because they are afraid of UKR arty. They can't drone it since the majority of the drones sent are destroyed. They can't bomb it properly because VKS fears Patriot (they don't believe in S-200).
As a result, they cannot containt it unless they apply consistent pressure to keep UKR on the defensive. As soon as they stop, the same thing (new bridgehead/bulge) will happen a few km closer to Crimea. -
Interesting UKR comment under video of Taras Cmut. An unknown commenter claims that UKR drone with 1.5 kg of plastid can take out any current RU dugout in typical Platoon Strongpoint (if it flies inside - they use another drone to blow up door/protective net first).
BTW, hiding in dugouts is the main way to survive on frontline right now.
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3 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:
This is the main point of our disagreement then. To me, it seems like a bad place to defend.
Disagreements are normal. We will eventually get further information to resolve the matter.
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2 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:
You could say the exact sme thing about Krynky. The Russians are crawling forward there too.
No, I could not. It is UKR who is crawling forward there. Not RU.
2 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:But that's not what I'm saying. I'm saying they charge into the line of fire and get shot dead. Ukraine doesn't need to do that in Krynky in a position that is also bad for them.
UKR do not charge into the line of fire in Krynki. They mostly do what they do in Avdiivka - defend it. And it is not a bad position to defend.
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Quote
There is unverified report that Ukrainians are employing large Baba Yaga drones as mother carriers for FPV drones. Yaga carries six kamikaze drones. The Mother will most likely behave as a repeater once she enters the operational area. It is logical to assume that Yaga is controlled via starlink. Information should be reviewed, and vigilance should be increased.
UPDATE: The information has been corroborated by guys on the front lines in several areas! -
37 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:
I'm not uninformed about the Russian casualties.
I just don't see why the same resources Ukriane spends in a poor fighting position on the other side of a river couldn't be better put to use in other parts of the front where Russians are also charging forward.
They are not charging forward. They crawl. This is their advance in 4 month and 16 thousand dead.
Their wild charge after capturing Avdiivka is 3.5 km. They aren't charging anywhere. They crawl and push. It is not strategically relevant.
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2 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:
It seems like it's not even a real bridgehead, but more of a contested area where both sides come and go, and nobody stays for very long since it's extremely exposed.
Well, if you mean RU, then yes, they come and go. Mostly to hell.
QuoteMisha is a former Novosibirsk prisoner [zek] named Mikhail Maltsev, who was pardoned in September 2023 in exchange for a contract with the Ministry of Defense...
In December, Maltsev, 32, was dispatched to storm Krynki. Before departing, "realizing that he was going one way [only]," he left another video in which he addressed the "convicts":...They don't grant you vacation days. The wounded are not being evacuated; instead, they patch you up, let you lay for a week, and then send you back into battle. Our [dead] boys are lying about, decomposing, and are not being hauled away".
Maltsev spent four November days in a pit on such corpses. "His commanders forbade him to take them out. There were incoming fires. He lived on the dead [bodies]. Took cookies out of their pockets and ate them," says one of the [his] soldier [friends].
"If you ask questions, you quickly go to storm places from where you can't come out alive". Maltsev continues with his video address. — Guys, it's better to stay at home...We cannot survive here. We do not comprehend what a ****ing war is. They fool us whatever they want."
"I have no idea if I'm going to get out of here, only **** knows. Let the normal boys hear me and, at the very least, protect themselves and their closest friends [from this]. Hell is here. I'm giving you a video in the hopes that it will save someone," he says in a postscript to the video.
Maltsev and his whole group were destroyed during an attempt to attack the Krynki in December 2023.The true face of RU war. I will not translate the article (yet), but auto-translation should suffice if you want to learn about the true horrors of the RU situation at Kherson direction.
How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?
in Combat Mission Black Sea
Posted
Yes and no. If it hits directly yes otherwise no - overal destruction effect from near misses of two let's say 500 kg bombs will be greater than from single 1000 kg bomb.