Seedorf81

Two things seemed utterly clear to me that are not happening in Russia right now: 1: When trying to take over power through a coup/mutiny/civil uprising, always be sure to kill the current leader. AND DO NOT HESITATE!! 2: If you have an uprising, insurrection or mutiny on your hands, immediately and mercilessly try get rid of it with everything you have at your disposal. AND DO NOT HESITATE!! Neither is happening, and that is the biggest mystery to me.

Well, hopefully someone tells mr Putin (or his successor) that this is the perfect moment to get every Russian soldier out of Ukraine ASAP. The excuse that he can use to get out of this for him unwinnable war? "All our soldiers, who, of course, nearly were victorious against the Ukranians, are now needed to defend the motherland. I order them to come back immediately". How unbelievable this may sound, with Putin's KGB/FSB past, I even think it is possible this Wagner-uprising could be something else than it appears to be.

Quote needs to be above previous reply, ofcourse, sorry about that.

Looks to me you're not the only one that is pondering about the whereabouts of those Ukrainian troops. I am, despite all the explanations and all the Russian defense-tenacity and all the historic comparisons, a tiny bit surprised and perhaps even a little bit disappointed that there isn't more BIG OFFENSIVE news. But .. WHAT IF.. What if the Ukrainians had their big push planned west of the Khakovka dam and, by sheer luck, through clever intel or stupidity, the Russians blew that just before the Ukrainian attack started? Wouldn't that force the Ukrainians to redeploy a lot of troops and (partially) re-plan that offensive? And cause a delay that, at least for a part, could explain the absence of the "bigger things" that we probably are all waiting for? (BTW: I don't know why, but I have a gut-feeling that in a week or two things will really start to move.

For the Dutchies.. Dutch version of Ukranian info-site, clear and consice. For the drone-lovers.. From seconds 34 - 52 wheeled mine-laying (AT) drone.

Not all mosquitos suck. https://www.baesystems.com/en/heritage/de-havilland-mosquito

According to tv-program I (partially) saw this week, China has the same problem, but even more so because of "societal pressure for status". Which means that in China being an ordinary labourer is considered even more honourless than in Western countries. China seems to get a whole lot of troubled near-future issues: population, real-estate bubble, climate, food/harvest-troubles and this. History teaches us that some leadership-guys will turn to war if the **** threatens to really hit the domestic fan (Movie - Wag the dog -, 1997), which is not good news for Taiwan. That Blinken-visit seems to me like a reasonable good move to warn China again not to do that.

And another one.. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65873014 Does Russia still think these stunts will help them in any way?

It may have to do with a lack of information. We, all forum-members, have at least some knowledge of warfare, it's history and "the way it works". Also we have a decent understanding of modern day technology and weaponry, and probably a little understanding of international law, different rules of engagement and what not. We tend to take that for granted. But from the beginning of this war it became apparent that a significant number of Russian soldiers came from the least developed parts of Russia. And a lot of those soldiers lived in circumstances that we, as spoiled Westerners, could describe as "archaic", "third world-ish", "primitive" or what have you, so their general knowledge-levels are probably less, or even much less, than ours. And they joined an Army that isn't very well-known for it consideration for, or information-sharing with, their soldiers. So I suspect that their "situational awareness" is utterly abysmal. They don't know anything, except that maybe a senior soldier told them to stay in a trench and shoot the enemy. When the Ukrainians attack them, they don't know how big the attacking force is. They haven't the faintest idea where the rest of the frontline runs, how to pull back or where to go, how to be flexible and maybe stabilize the situation by counterattacking. They cannot rely on friendlies to come to support them, they don't have the "band of brothers"-knowledge that your squadmates will help you, and they most certainly cannot trust any NCO's or officers (because they already left.) So they stay until the very end, not because of exceptional bravery or believing in "The Cause", but because they haven't a clue what is going on.

If I translate the recent Ukrainian losses to my CM Black Sea-experiences: I am a below-average skilled player. But even if I had to play let's say Bill Hardenberger (undoubtedly one of the best, methodical and clever players I saw during AAR's), than I still would be able to kill a number of his Bradleys and Abrams. Every army, even the most victorious, takes losses. There is way too much focus on this initial Ukraine-"attack mishap", because - and yes that is very cruel - it is relatively insignificant in the big overall scheme.

Since we're probably all waiting for news about a big breakthrough, or a succesful pincermovement, I was thinking about General Eisenhower in WW2 and his "broad front"-strategy. What if Ukraine keeps steady pressure on all (the important) parts of the frontline, in stead of massive pressure on one or two parts? Wouldn't that strain the Russian Army beyond it limits? Manpower-wise, logistics-wise and operational/organisational-wise?

Nice to have a forummember that knows how to be cool at the right time.

The Ukrainian Army-offensive-planners surely must have considered the possibility of this terrible damdestruction-scenario, and are (hopefully) not as surprised as we are..

Have you ever tried to catch a very fit mouse in a big house with a lot of furniture and other stuff where it can hide under? It's ridiculously difficult. That is why the Russians struggle against the "invaders". And it is almost as funny as "Tom and Jerry"..

Hopefully these drones will also be used for something more positive than just killing people. I for one would not be surprised at all if before 2024 we see the first medevac with a drone.

Here we go again.. US politics. Source of endless controversy?

Just now: Dutch government wants to buy dozens of extra Leopard1-tanks for Ukraine. Problem is that they wanna buy 'm from a Swiss company, and the Swiss government needs to approve the buy. The well-known "neutrality-stance" from the Swiss can cause delay or a "NO". To be continued..

This is pretty ridiculous. South-Africa changes the law so not to follow the law?! (So they don't have to arrest Putin when he visits.) https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-africa-65361205?ns_mchannel=social&ns_source=twitter&ns_campaign=bbc_live&ns_linkname=64761bce3d616e0a28d068a7%26South Africa to change law to stop arrest of Putin%262023-05-30T16%3A30%3A28.324Z&ns_fee=0&pinned_post_locator=urn:asset:005fa370-a777-409e-bed0-f6ffc7bfd80a&pinned_post_asset_id=64761bce3d616e0a28d068a7&pinned_post_type=share

According to advisor of Mariupol mayor on Telegram: "100 Russian soldiers killed, and about 400 wounded at ukranian strike on former medical center at Mariupol where 4 busses full of soldiers just had arrived. Also Russian communication-center destroyed." No confirmation from other sources yet.

Vasyl Maljoek, Head of SBU admits involvement in Crimean bridgestrike on october 8th 2022. "Logistical enemy route we had to cut off", no further details. (DPA newsbureau)

Oh my God, from now on I need to worry not only about my language-deficiencies, but about the philosophical and legal ones also!

Also again, no worries, mate. Maybe it is because I am a non-native English speaker and am I using the language in an inappropriate way? I thought there's a difference between "Christmas can lead to an increase in traffic accidents", versus "Christmas causes traffic accidents." The first quote can be true, because at Christmas more people use more alcohol and therefore more drunk drivers on the roads, but the second quote can never be true as far as I understand it. I know this has nothing to do with Ukraine, but it seems language-troubles do create misunderstandings now and then. So real Americans and British and Canadians and Australians (etc), please be considerate with the rest of us, the lingo-strugglers.

Again, I did not say "cause". See my "chicken and egg" followup-post.

Maybe a misunderstanding from my side, but I thought you disagreed with my post on armament-races. Mainly because you used the phrase "not aimed directly at you", and the fact that you described a big difference in China-US armament build-up and China's agressive stance. It seemed to me that you wanted to state that if one party arms up big time, and the other doesn't that it also (thereby countering my earlier statement) will lead to war. I.e. China invading Taiwan. Which may or may not happen, but didn't happen yet, so I mentioned that. If I misunderstood your argument, I apologize.

Zelensky advisor Michaelja Podoljak on counter-offensive expectations. Real info or cloak and dagger-stuff?