Seedorf81

Your emotions are very understandable. But there may be the possibility that forummembers who do not propagate escalation, have the same feelings of indignation towards Russia and what it is doing in Ukraine. The main difference is that they know, think, fear, see or maybe fantasize (about) VERY POSSIBLE earthdestroying (no joke, no excaggeration) consequences, which you obviously do not care about as much as they do. What is less understandable for me, is - as I see it from your posts - your selective anger. How many children with their limbs blown off are, and were, there outside of Ukraine? How many children die of hunger because of murdering idiots like Putin? (I can go on with other examples, all day long!) Why don't I hear you about other suffering?? It feels to me a bit like the Black Lives Matter/anti-slavery people. They have very good reasons for their anger, and I have no problem with them making their pain visible and audible for the rest of the world. But, and this is a very big but, I cannot understand why they think that their suffering is the worst in the world. From about 1620 to 1890 (270 years)there were a total 10 million African slaves in the USA, which is - especially for a country that always boasts about "equal chances for everyone" - indeed a disgrace. But from about 1940 - 1945 (5 years) the Germans had 12 million slaves. And the majority of those slaves wasn't much better off than the majority of the African slaves. But I never ever heard one Black lives matter person mention those. Or the huge numbers of slaves that the Romans had. (Estimates are 10-15% of all people they conquered!) And for sure I never heard one of 'm talk about the current slave-labourers in he world. https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2022/09/13/1122714064/modern-slavery-global-estimate-increase Again, I understand the wish to utterly crush the Russian army and regime, but if you want to do that without thinking about the REAL POSSIBILITY of earth-shattering consequences for the rest of the world, than in my book you're too centered on what is currently important for your personal situation. Strangely enough it looks to me that some forummembers care so much about Ukraine, that they don't care about the rest of the world anymore.

Cops nearly always try to de-escalate. They prudently and cautiously wait, stall, negotiate and don't use brute and/or deadly force until all others methods fail. For hours and sometime days, if not longer, they try to reason with suspects/perpetrators and even the most brutal criminals. The cops usually try to make the outcome the best for everyone involved. Even if snipers and swat-teams and armored cars are ready to go. Sure, a policeman sometimes wants to rush in and beat the crap out of a rapist or schoolshooter or whatever, but being in control of your emotions is nearly always better in the long run. I think in the current Ukraine-war the US so far behaves as a well-trained clever policeman, and I hope they stay that way.

Ukrainian divers training in Scotland https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-66274111

Maybe a year ago I saw a stunning security-cam video of a couple that had a row with their bully-neighbor. After already months or years of tension, this argument was about the placement of garbage-containers. After a few minutes of discussions, things heated up and yelling turned into screaming, anger into hate. Shoving became pushing and throwing of objects started. Neither the couple, nor the bully-neighbor showed any restraint. Suddenly the bully walked away, back to his garage, but the woman from the couple kept screaming and throwing things, even when the bully disappeard in his garage. Where he picked up his assault rifle and then reappeared. Well now.. instead of running away, or running for cover and calling the cops, that woman thought something like what you just wrote: "We'll never know where the red line is unless we start inching toward it", and like you she thought that being a little more agressive towards the bully would not escalate. She walked, screaming and yelling, up to the bully with the gun and, how surprising, got shot. Not fatally wounded she tried to crawl away, and her husband ran towards her to help. But the bully oh so calmly shot both off 'm point blanc until his magazine was empty. Then he went into garage, reloaded, and blew his own brains out. That woman found the red line by inching towards it..

Well, I do not agree with your conclusion. Suppose the boxing legend Mike Tyson in his prime (fit as USSR in 1970's) had an argument with you ("The West"), and both of you carried a loaded handgun. Would it make a real difference for the escalatory danger for both of you if, years later, Mike Tyson had become an emaciated cancer-victim, sitting in a wheelchair, while suffering from dementia and parkinsons disease ( Russia in 2023)? As long as Tyson would be able to pull the trigger of his gun, the real danger would still be exactly the same. How weak one of - or both - the belligerents would be. Like it or not, it's the gun that matters, not the physical size, or condition, or even the mental state of the one who holds it. And as long as that gun can kill, you'd better act wisely and yes, careful.

KevinK, The next sentences are from a few recent reactions you posted: - "We can't let nuclear blackmail stand". - "Putin's nuclear buster has to be challenged". - "Who is afraid of nuclear escalation anyway". And now you wrote that highlighted (by me) remark in the quoted post. For starters, I am afraid of nuclear escalation. I even fear the use of just one, yes just one, nuke. Not because of my own safety, (A. The Netherlands isn't exactly a top-target for nukes and B. I'm old, and have lived a less than pleasant life so far, so if dying through a nuke comes next, so be it.), but of the EXCEPTIONAL HORROR a (load of) nukes creates for at least tens of thousands, but possibly hundreds of millions, of humans. (Not to mention flora, fauna, environment etc.) The effect of nuclear bombs exceeds every other horrible thing we humans used against one another, by so much, that it cannot even be imagined what multiple nukes will do on the scale of gruesome. Your reactions, and maybe I copied them out of context, seem to indicate to me that you either firmly belief that nukes won't be used (again), WHICH I THINK IS A DANGEROUSLY WRONG ASSUMPTION, or you seem to think that the use of nukes would be less dangerous for the world, then when Russia would defeat Ukraine. Your remark about "not letting stand nuclear blackmail" baffles me, because the way I see it is that the world since 1945 (or 1949, when Stalin got his nukes) has been living in this constant state of "blackmail". Because possible mutual destruction is a form of two-sided blackmail, and I do not think it wise to disturb that, how ridiculous the situation may be. Nuclear war is, to say it very euphemistically, not to be taken lightly, but some of your postings make me nervous and I wonder, do you realize what you are talking about? ( Sad disclaimer: For the ones that would assume that I am thinking that the Russians will defeat Ukraine, or assume that I would want the Russians to defeat Ukraine.. I am absolutely sure Russia wil NOT defeat Ukraine and Russia should get the hell outta there.)

Dutch ministry of defense, just now: Belgium, Netherlands and Luxemburg will donate more APC's, upgraded M113's, to Ukraine. No numbers yet.

I'm no physicist but it almost looked as if the exploding gasses got so hot they became plasma for just a millisecond?? But should that even be possible? Weird.

Mmm, I sense it's almost.. MODERATOR-TIME!

Trenches are still the "best" protection against artillery. Mortars, big shells, and even bombs. Mother Earth still provides a surprisingly decent amount of protection. Not perfect, like you say, but it works. If you're out in the open, you're most likely dead.

All the kill-mame-death-destruction video's haunt me. And not just from this war. (Overly-Sensitive kinda guy, probably.) But the Ukrainians in the minefield-video struck me most because of the unbelievable courage those guys showed. Courage in a trench or fierce firefight can be an instinctive thing, because there is hardly time to really think about what is happening, until it's over. But these guys in that minefield knew what was around them. And the ones that survived the first explosions, plus the ones that later arrived in the other Bradley, knew very well how utterly dangerous it was to try and get the wounded out. But they went. And when those guys blew up in front of their eyes, the next guys never gave up and stepped on that mine-infested soil. WHILE THEY KNEW!!! I wonder if I have ever seen more courageous people in this whole ****ty war.

According to CNN the US airdefense is struggling a bit. https://edition.cnn.com/2023/07/02/politics/army-air-defense-russia-ukraine-china/index.html If true, not very good news for Ukraine

New camo Russian Black Sea fleet, first spotted on 22nd of june 2023. http://www.hisutton.com/Russian-Navy-Deceptive-Camouflage.html

BBC on Wagnergroup in Belarus and more. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66052060

Not entirely though. They would be using ALL KINDS of extinguishers (Explosives, tanks, bombs, missiles, rockets, bullets, grenades and the lot) that also do damage to the house and the people. But somehow it's only the "cheap one" as you described it, that triggers comments.

I really do understand the necessity and value of Humans Rights Watch. Seriously. But it is the timing. If a house is on fire with people still in it, are you gonna walk up to the firefighters and tell them that because of global warming (which for me is the most dangerous thing in the world at this moment), they should reduce the amount of water they're using? I most certainly would not.

"Human Rights Watch urges Ukraine to stop using AP mines (as promised). I don't like war, I don't like this killing and slaughtering and suffering, and I don't like the use of mines. Period. But are these Human Rights Watch-people insane??? Asking this NOW? In a full-blown existential war??? How ignorant and naive can you be?

I READ this and I believe it. But wait... should I?

The acting is fascinating, but should they get Oscars or "Razzies"?!

Even weirder? https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66023631 I took some time to look better at the available footage of the "mutiny" to check if I really saw what I thought I saw. Compared to every other uprising, coup, mutiny and/or civil unrest I read about, saw pictures or camera-footage of, or heard witnesses/participants talk about, the Wagner-advance seemed to show a remarkable lack of stress, chaos and apprehension. To me this whole thing looked more like an ADHDfilled teenager-schooltrip, than an "everyone's future and lives are very much at stake" high-stress occurence. Prigozjin is looking remarkable relaxed throughout, which is quite a change from his earlier recent appearances. He is laying his life on the line, not only because of the "failure means death"-probabilty, but if there would be any resistance against this mutiny, he would be the prime target. But he, and his entourage, are all the time behaving like it is a walk in the park. And look at the way most of the troops behave. Do they act like they expect enemy fire? Are they using every bit of cover while advancing? Are they nervously looking out for snipers or armor? Does it look like they expect any resistance at all? No, they go for coffee and food, sit very relaxed on parkbenches and cafe-terraces, stroll as if they know there will be no resistance. Very strange, especially when you realise that a lot of those soldiers recently were in combat at heavily contested frontlines, which tends to make anyone pretty anxious and alert in an urban situation where enemy fire can be expected any minute. Every other coup or mutiny (etc) had camera-footage and reports that show chaos, excitement and confusion. People being very nervous/agitated. Adjutants, security-guys, messengers and officers, all running around and looking around and gesticulating and a lot of yelling and shouting going on. A continuous reporting and updating of enemy positions, resistance-levels, progression of advancing friendly units, news from the rest of the country, and so on. I did not see that on a level that I would expect in a "mutiny" that was so sudden, so big and so powerful as this one. Not at all. While the possible, or likely, enemy force could be enormous. Even when things were unfolding it almost looked to me as if, at least a big part of, the mutineers knew, or at least suspected, that there would be no real resistance. Maybe they had perfect intel? Maybe it was Wagner self-confidence? Trusting in being lucky? Or, very possible, is my comparison with other mutinies and uprisings wrong? I don't know what happend, but the fact that even 'Steve" and "TheCAPT" were uniquely shocked, proofs to me that this was one of the weirdest mutinies, and mutiny-endings, EVER.

Just for arguments' sake. Could this stranger than strange day have underlying motives like these.. Putin and Prigozjin have been friends all along and still are. Never any real danger for either! Prigozjin told his friend Putin that he wants to leave Ukraine (because he knows his "superior" Wagnerarmy is being massacered and if he stays he loses everything) and needs a way out. Lukashenko is considered by both to be a growing liability and needs someone close by as a guard against roque behaviour. Wagner in Belorussia gives also more pressure on Ukraine. Any diversion from the almost endless bad news producing Ukranian-fiasco is welcome. Any diversion. In order to reveal where possible adversaries are, creating a very confusing scenario where people will (have to) show where their loyalties lie, can do the trick. (Stalin was very good at that.) Those who support a "mutinous situation" will be registered, and dealt with later on. As long as it will be clear who the final victor is (Putin), a "threatening" situation is not bad in the long run, because the people will remember that Putin still wins, even in very difficult situations. Test the loyalty, willingness and capabilities of the Army in case of a coup, without it being a real coup. Be as Machiavellian as can be in order to "divide and conquer". Show fake weakness, trick, deceive, maskerade, lie. Be silent where people expect you to speak, do nothing where people expect you to act decisively. Make as much chaos as possible, because in the end that will benefit you. Winning in Ukraine? Stop NATO from growing? Restoring Russia's Greatness? Who cares? There is only one thing that matters, and that is staying in power.

I agree that Putin having a hand in all this is not logic or rational or even really understandable. But on the other hand: - you don't stay in power for so long without huge survival-instincts, - as a bit of a paranoid figure, Putin could or would have been prepared for something like this I think, - invading Ukraine was also not logical, rational or really understandable for "normal" people, - he was a spy, and I suspect he still thinks as a spy, - he and Prigozjin were always very close and during this strange mutiny neither attacked the other one directly, which I think is remarkable, - there barely has been any serious fighting, which is even more remarkable, - Prigozjin stops, just like that, after a ridiculous short conversation with Lukashenko? The same Lukashenko that was a total wreck at Victory day? Prigozjin listens to him?? - Prigozjin gets what he wants, just like that? In any real world I know off, mutineers are being shot, not rewarded! - something had be done with the incompetence of the Russian High Command and that suddenly seems to happen because of Prigozjins action? Questions without answers perhaps, but I still think there is something very strange.

I still think that there is something very, very, weird going on. Putin either lost his sly, murderous and conniving ruthlessness, or he had something to do with this.

It may not be much longer before a certain (former) high-ranking Russian will ask asylum in China..

Big can of worms being opened.. Suppose Prigozjin somehow becomes the new Czar of Russia and offers to leave the whole of Ukraine, but only if The West (and Ukraine) will accept him as the new Boss, and the lifting of sanctions? Holidays for politicians, army-planners and diplomats are to be cancelled I suppose, because ridiculous questions like this aren't so ridiculous anymore.