DreDay
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Posts posted by DreDay
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8 hours ago, John Kettler said:
One of the stocks in trade of intelligence organizations is an influence operation designed to get manipulate the enemy or other party into acting in such a way as to benefit the initiating group. During the Cold War, for example, Russia heavily influenced the anti-war movement against the Vietnam War and dit it again in connection with the nuclear disarmament movement, where the Russians proclaimed Peace, but the idiots failed to realize Peace was, in fact, global Communism.These were strategic moves. The former was successful, the second less so.
What has been happening now is that Putin has been exposed as being connected to billions of dollars of fraud and theft, making him one of the richest people on the planet. We owe this bombshell to Russian lawyer, Magnitsky, who worked for a powerhouse US businessman named Bill Browder. Magnitsky was murdered after presenting overwhelming evidence to the Russian authorities and various journalists that Putin not only was directly involved in the theft of $230 million from a Russian business which was part of Browder's investment portfolio, but got it all. Magnitsky was killed to save Putin and associates. Putin thought he and his cronies were untouchable, but a resultant piece of US legislation called the Magnitsky Act, which Browder made his cause to bring into being and get it passed, enabled US and other authorities to act against Putin et al.'s assets, which are all in the west.
As such, the Magnitsky Act was and is a mortal threat to Putin directly and everyone tied to him. The influence operation was designed to get the Magnitsky Act repealed, and the moves were made via a not what it seemed NGO, hiring lobbyists and working with certain members of Congress to repeal it. Bill Browder testified about what the Russians were doing, how they were doing it, how they entrapped people, etc. He's been subject to all sorts of harassment, including repeated death threats. He made it clear that Magnitsky was murdered as a proxy for him. Browder is a man who won't be cowed and won't shut up, either. Make no mistake.In his very recent testimony before the Senate Judiciary Committee, he was describing a Grade One intelligence operation which evidently deeply penetrated both the Legislative and Executive branches of the US Government. In his testimony, he tied the murder of Magnitsky to the subsequent murders of Nemstov and others. Much the same circle in that influence operation has been tied for years to efforts to lift the sanctions on Russia. Any competent intelligence officer would agree this is an intelligence operation carried out against the centers of power of what is still called the Main Enemy by the Russians, the US. Any intelligence agency would consider the damage which has already been done to the foe to be quite the coup, and we are just beginning to come to grips with what has happened.
It is precisely this sort of chaos, distraction and diversion of focus which creates the window for Putin to make one or more moves he likely wouldn't dare try otherwise. This should, in my view, be a matter of acute concern for any neighboring country to Russia not already aligned with it. Equally, it should likewise command the attention of NATO and the US. From a host of security levels, we are in severe-grave danger of having Putin, ever the opportunist, taking one or several carefully calculated pre-planned actions designed to further his publicly declared goal of restoring the Russian Empire. A friend sent me an excellent article on this from Huffington Post U.K., but because it might be deemed political, when it really is about an intelligence disaster, I'm not going to post the link, just the title. I consider this must reading for anyone with an interest or concern regarding what Putin may do next. Putin may not have the military strength the USSR had, but he has now unmistakably demonstrated yet another potent weapon in his hybrid warfare arsenal. We are now no longer talking about cyberattack against Ukraine, but a strategic level nonmilitary attack (with enormous possible military impact) against the very core of the United States Government. To my knowledge, nothing like this has ever been done to the US, and it has triggered a multitude of crises. Suspect this is but the top of a horrible and very scary iceberg.
Bill Browder’s Senate Judiciary Committee Hearing Could Explain Anthony Scaramucci’s Bizarre Behaviour
Deliberate?
Regards,
John Kettler
Ok let's start out by stating the fact that Putin has never stated his goal as restoration of Soviet Union. Moreover he has taken clear steps not to pursue those steps (I.e. Insisting that Donbass stays in Ukraine) that have cost him losing a lot of support from Warhawks and nationalists. That's a fact.
Second, what would be his benefit in causing the kind of damag against US Government? More sanctions and isolation? What's in it for him?
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Unfortunately I will not be able to help you with exact resources, as I don't do pro-bono research. But I would suggest starting your search with Colonel Budanov (the most publicized and controversial case relating to this). I am sure that you will find links to other cases after that if you search hard enough.
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4 hours ago, Saint_Fuller said:
It's the tank thing more or less. I'm kind of a treadhead, and I thought it was a neat thing.
That aside, yes, there are reports.
The HRW on the executions in Staropromyslovsky.Besides one man (and that case never actually took shape because he went underground and it got suspended in 2005 because of his disappearance), no one was taken to court, let alone convicted, for any of these massacres to my knowledge.
There have actually been quite a few very public cases that involved Russian servicemen going on trial for crimes that they had supposedly committed in Chechnya. Not sure where you have been looking for this information; but I guarantee you that it is out there.
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Look friend,
If this is something that you are really interested in - I would strongly urge you to pick up a simple college manual for Business Management 101, it will help you understand the appropriation of fixed assets, basic principles of marketing (including price-setting), and a simple notion of social premium that drives governmental appropriations. I can assure you that these basics have not been changed since the 30s and 40s. It will save you a ton of time, rather than having to reinvent the wheel all over again.
I would also like to welcome your decision not to put any money in my enterprise; as, based on the amount of time that you invest here - you would probably need it for more basic needs.
All that I had asked you for, was a list of Russian military hardware that is noticeably more expensive than their western counterparts. That would serve your cause (which you obviously take very close to heart) much better than trying to fight the wind-mills of basic business principles.
Peace,
DreDay
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21 minutes ago, Sgt.Squarehead said:
TBH I'm fairly confident wiser heads will prevail in the end and all this nonsense will go away, but it's damned irritating putting up with right now and that's a fact.
I am with you 100%.
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19 minutes ago, IMHO said:
- Tomahawk vs. Kalibr, Armata with what they'll realistically be able to provide in the coming years vs. latest Abrams generations, still non existing next-gen engine for T-50, still non-existing mass produced AESA fighter radars, early-warning ICBM radars, non-existing theater defence tactical ballistic missile AESA radar... Enough?
- When comparing please count in not just the face value of per-unit purchasing contract from MoD but the total program costs and vendor support from all state-aligned sources.
Really, you still want to drag this out? The pricing of Kalibr has not been announced, to the best of my knowledge. It is still a "raw" system compared to Tomahawks that have been around for 30 years; and I am not at all sure that Kalibrs are actually mass produced.
Armata vs. latest Abrams comparison is futile. They are completely different generations of MBTs and Armata is still few years away from mass production.What we can do is compare equivalent generations of hardware with matching capabilities (i.e. MI-28/KA-52 vs AH-64D), (T-90 vs M1A2),(S-400 vs latest Patriot) (SU-30SM vs latest F-15) - under such fair comparison Russian equipment is almost universally cheaper.
You obviously don't understand how fixed costs work either. NIIs have performed scientific research and continue to do so regardless of how long ago the Soviet system has collapsed. Their work is used not only to perform R&D, but also to test out new hardware. They are an essential instrument in Russian military industrial complex.
You also seem to be confused about what forms the price of products - it has nothing to do with how expensive they were to design and to build (as long as they have any kind of profit margin of course), the price is always set by the market; and more specifically by how much your customers are willing to pay for it.
PS: I am still waiting to hear about those super-expensive Ratniks...
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7 minutes ago, Sgt.Squarehead said:
Not sure how that would benefit them though, unless a full scale conflagration was already under way, IMHO once one 'sunshine-genie' gets out of it's bottle, they all will.
I certainly hope that they never try out our bluff, and I can only see such development in a critical (for Russia) condition where all conventional means will be lost. However, the benefit (in a pure real politik sense) is quite clear - it will wipe out NATO infrastructure essential to supporting the invasion into Russian mainland and destroy the missile-defense systems along with any possible carriers. I honestly don't know if POTUS would be strong enough to end the world as we know it over Poland (just as an example). I honestly would don't know how I (and most of my compatriots) would feel about that. It's just eerie to even contemplate...
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Alright dude, now I am convinced that you are arguing just for the point of arguing. Tell you what, please send me a list of latest Russian military hardware that is more expensive than equivalent Western systems. Hopefully you can start out your evidence list with Ratnik gear (which is what this post is supposed to be about)...
PS: This is totally unfair, but I will let you in on a little secrete - Russia is more poor than leading Western countries; so they simply can't afford to build systems that cost as much or more than ours; their systems will always be comparatively cheaper - it's as simple as that.
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17 minutes ago, Sgt.Squarehead said:
One other thing that should be considered is the sheer ridiculousness of the medias' fervent wish that the US would intervene in eastern Europe against Russia.
To use a poker analogy the US has just passed every round in a head to head with North Korea, they are out of chips. North Korea is said to have around a dozen nuclear warheads, Russia has around five thousand. So the concept that the US is going all-in over Ukraine or Georgia is utterly delusional. (and if they try a weak raise, you can be quite sure that they will be massively re-raised by their opponent, who has nothing to lose).
That scares me as well, as very few people (including our dear colleagues here) seem to realize what's at stake (i.e. the destruction of our civilization as we know it). To be fair though - Russians do have a lot to loose, so I would not expect them to turn to nuclear deterrent unless they face a physical threat to their survival (as in WW2). What really scares me though, is that Russians can call our bluff and nuke some of our allies (i.e. Poland); knowing full well that we would likely have to restrain from counter-striking Russian mainland. This horrific "loophole" in our doctrine, coupled with failure to even consider Russian interests is the most dangerous legacy of Obama's administration in my opinion.
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2 hours ago, IMHO said:
You describe a bureaucratic tender process. That's not the answer to the question of means and ways of financing weapons production.
The correct wording would be the salary of an average weapons manufacturing employee is lower... But to infer from that that the end result ought to be cheaper is a breach of logic that contradicts the facts of real life.
I'd say that using run-of-the-mill stuff is a good proxy to grasp a wider picture. You have standardized pieces with all the tooling paid for, factories fully financially depreciated, production facilities located in the most depressed Russian regions with lowest salaries, energy costs being naturally lower in Russia etc. So if THOSE pieces tend to be times more expensive what would you think of newest samples with technology not well-honed and R&D having a large share of the total cost.
C'mon man. Do we really need this dick measuring contest here? For the record - I do hold an MBA from one of the top schools in my country; so if you want to talk finance,economics, and operations - I would accept your challenge (but very reluctantly as I really hate that **** at this point in my life).
Anyways - labor is cheaper in Russia than any other major weapons manufacturer, accept for China. I am talking about labor because it includes more than just salaries; but other fixed costs associated with full time employment (i.e. social benefits, safety, training etc).
You are also correct to point out that energy carriers are naturally cheaper in Russia (especially for semi-governmental military industrial complex).
The new equipment (as in - not based on Soviet designs) is infact manufactured on new facilities and tools that have not yet depreciated. It was a sunk cost that Russian government had decided to swallow due to the embargo from the west and Ukraine (which was actually a bigger deal than the former).
R&D is also much cheaper in Russia due to an existing infrastructure of Research Centers (aka NIIs) that they had inherited from the Soviet Union.
On top of that they have somewhat less regimented manufacturing and QA practices that save quite a lot, and are supposed to be countered by the native reliability and simplicity of Russian equipment.
I could go on, but that should be enough for now...
PS: I will concede though that when it comes to small batches of items that Russians have no prior manufacturing (even R&D) experience with; they could in fact sell for more than equivalent items in the west. For instance, if Russians decide to get into manufacturing AR-15s; these carbines will be more expensive than what we pay for them here (with all else being equal). That probably explains the SV-98 phenomenon that I have mentioned earlier. However, this anomaly only occurs while such items are manufactured in small batches; which doesn't really apply to mass produced items such as uniforms and field gear.
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4 minutes ago, Mishrae said:
I'm not American nor did I quote "Yahoo Finance" but ok there champ
My reply was not aimed at you directly, but rather at a certain portion of our forum members that you (as I thought) identify with. Yahoo Finance was an inside joke, you would have to read the whole thread to get it; so no worries.
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4 minutes ago, Mishrae said:
Which sources?The ones that unapologetically savage the US for ineptitude openly while they (The US) own up to ****ing up? http://www.latimes.com/world/asia/la-fg-pentagon-hospital-airstrike-20160428-story.html
Or the ones that deny unequivocally that The Russian Air force double tapped a hospital? https://www.rt.com/news/332603-syria-hospital-accusations-denial/
A Nation that can own up to its **** ups is one I'd rather trust
I hate to break it to you friend, but we don't exactly share all our mistakes either; or have you forgotten our esteemed Secretary of State shaking a lab tube with backing soda in front of the whole world's audience in 2003? That does not justify the disinformation that the Russians are spreading; but as an American I am much more concerned about what our guys are not telling us as opposed to some authoritarian state half the world away. In my opinion, that is something that every responsible citizen should exercise.
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4 minutes ago, Saint_Fuller said:
There's a bit of a difference between civilian targets getting hit by mistake as you conduct operations in urban terrain against insurgents, and burning a city to ash block by block with zero regard for anyone in the target zone as revenge for getting ****ed up the last time you tried to take it.
The difference in how Americans and Russians conduct urban operations is in the difference between Cordon & Search and Cordon & Smerch, so to say.
So they could.They'd be wrong, but they could definitely make that claim.
It's just amazing how time after time all of our precise smart bombing inevitably leads to more casualties than Russian barbaric "smersh" that goes specifically after hospitals (as if they hold any military value). Look at the results of bombing campaigns in WW2. Vietnam vs Afghanistan. Syria vs Iraq and a clear pattern emerges - our actions result in higher number of dead civilians than anyone elses'. I am not even talking about the strategic results of our recent campaigns than have plunged already volatile middle-east into the middle ages....
Now don't get me wrong, I love my country and I love my armed forces. I truly believe and even somewhat know it to be a fact that our servicemen have truly cared to minimize the civilian suffering; but guess what - war is a bitch and this type of "clean war" (that some of the members on this forum seem to buy into) is just an illusion sold to us by those who want us to focus all our attention on Russia (I am not saying that we should apply no scrutiny to them either) while they continue to play their power games with no winner in sight... But hey - Yahoo Finance might not exactly publish that line of thought.
What really bothers me is that the rest of the world knows what we are doing perfectly well and just because they are not saying anything does not mean that they are not making conclusions...
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2 minutes ago, IMHO said:
@John Kettler, gimme a break... The first article is TWO YEARS OLD (Jul, 2015). Then all of a sudden the story goes to the top of Yahoo news listing right before the Georgian election
I have guys sitting in the office who're paid to push any piece of content in Google, Yahoo or whatever. It's used to peddle benign commercial stuff but politics would be even cheaper - less competition.
Agreed. I also think that some people are not considering the fact that every self-respecting country employs services of PR firms whose direct responsibility is to push such content to news outlets.
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You are too kind good sir, I am far from knowledgeable in that realm. It's a very complicated and non-standardized system of procurement - so much so that even my Russian friends don't seem to gasp the scope and methodology of it. However, the basic procurement cycle is initiated by a "tender" (an SOW if you will) that specifies the required equipment, services, purchase amounts and prices. In theory any qualified organization can try to secure such tender; but obviously in practice the contractor is usually implicit by the language of requirements in such tender. (i.e. if you are requesting an upgraded AK-74 - only Izhmash can match such requirement). However there are a lot of other factors that go into this. Sometimes the weapon manufactures end up with extra inventory and the MOD is forced to pickup the slack; like the Algerian (I believe) Mig-29s that were returned to the manufacturer due to defects.
Anyways, my point was that Russian equipment (even with the pork barrel and other wasteful spending included) tends to be cheaper than western counterparts due to the lower costs of labor and other specific aspects of Russian manufacturing. You can see that by comparing the export prices on their tanks, aircraft, artillery, etc. Now it goes without saying that Russian MOD pays less than the foreign clients; and more importantly they pay in rubles.
There are some examples to the contrary (i.e. SV-98 sniper rifle and its scope were originally priced at the same tier as higher quality western counterparts); but generally I see the lower cost of Russian equipment as a rule.
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On 7/27/2017 at 7:24 AM, kraze said:
Oh them Evil ukrainian paramilitary groups that nobody has seen that make bad things! Yet somehow it's russian troops who suddenly ended up occupying Transnistria with not a single ukrainian in sight.
I honestly don't know anything about Ukrainian paramilitaries participating in that conflict; but as an interesting side note - Ukrainian armed forces had in fact conducted their first combat operation in Transnestria. It was a result of a small action by 8th Spetsnaz Brigade that had secured one of the strategic bridges close to the border.
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On 7/25/2017 at 3:43 AM, IMHO said:
Well for RUS MoD the prices may well be even above those for US-produced equipment. It's just you're a private customer - you may buy or pass on. RUS MoD has no such luxury
Actually a general rule of the day is RUS MoD has to pay more for RUS-produced equipment than what Western-made equipment of the same class fetches on the international market 
And what exactly do you base this information on? Would you be so kind as to send me the latest Russian MOD procurement contracts that you have studied so thoroughly to come up with such revelations?
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On 7/26/2017 at 6:33 AM, kraze said:
There's also no russian border between Azerbaijan and Armenia. Since when did that stop russians?
Stop Russians from what exactly? Russia has good relations with both Armenia and Azerbaijan and its national interest call for peaceful coexistence of those two states, which they have already proven on numerous occasions. And there are certainly no Russian servicemen in Karabakh. Where exactly do you get your information from?
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1 hour ago, Sgt.Squarehead said:
Try and elevate the gun on a tank like that.
Urban assault vehicles of this type will soon start to proliferate, count on it.
I have nothing against vehicles like up-armored BMP-3 that can deliver heavy firepower into the zenith; although so far no one else seems to be jumping on the band wagon. My point is that BMPT is not suited for that role very well.
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1 minute ago, DreDay said:
Please discard
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1 hour ago, JUAN DEAG said:
In what way? There were no issues before unidentified armed masked men started seizing police stations. Would love some examples of 'suppression'.
Oh I don't know - calling them scum and having exhibits that present them as degenerates. Sending busloads of young radicals to reason with them by means of assaulting them. Ignoring their holidays. Renaming the boulevards of their heroes that defeated fascism to Nazi sympathizers. Having a quota on how much TV time can be spoken in their language (when 75% of the country speaks the same language); bombing the **** out of their cities; arresting their leaders, assaulting and humiliating their leaders that had attempted to run for election. Oh, and didn't the seizures of police stations start by their opponents in East and then Central Ukraine first? In a way you are right I guess, everything was fine before the nationalists had started illegally ceasing the power. But I forget, this is coming from a person that thinks that bombing Libya has turned out well and wishes them on to others...
QuoteMay I ask what rights are they lacking?
And in the case of Lithuania it's difficult to make friends with a nation that despises your independence.
Who the hell despises Lithuania's independence? What planet are you from?
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Thank you for the explanation. I knew about 2 Russian VDV POWs, as well as 4 taken later; but I was under impression that they were all released. Do you have any info to the contrary? Also, if I may ask - what is your gut feeling about the overall casualty count in Ilovaysk?
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10 minutes ago, Bufo said:
I don't understand what is a problem with a conflict of US vs USSR.
I can only speak for myself. And for the record - I support CMBF. It's just that the conflict between US and RF seems so unlikely due to its potential consequences that it is hard for me to suspend my disbelief and to take it seriously... but that's just me...
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Just now, HUSKER2142 said:
As an option, an armored cover, as on the M2 Bradley IFV.
True. That's one of the reasons that BMP-3 designers had taken a different route.
Just now, HUSKER2142 said:Perhaps after a certain time, a combat module with 100 mm will appear, in the USSR an Object 782 was created.
I saw that, but then you might as well stick to a regular tank
I have guys sitting in the office who're paid to push any piece of content in Google, Yahoo or whatever. It's used to peddle benign commercial stuff but politics would be even cheaper - less competition.
Actually a general rule of the day is RUS MoD has to pay more for RUS-produced equipment than what Western-made equipment of the same class fetches on the international market 
And in the case of Lithuania it's difficult to make friends with a nation that despises your independence.
Putin seems to be incrementally taking over Georgia
in General Discussion Forum
Posted
I completely agree. This situation is even more ironic, given our president's insistence on negotiating concessions for any friendly foreign policy move on our side. Well...we are about to see the reverse side of such primitive diplomacy.