kevinkin

Look, once again, prime time cable news is just entertainment TV. It has zero influence. It spews to people that liked to be spewed too, as long as they already agree with what is being spewed to them. ECHO ... ECHO ... ECHO The corporate leaders of each network know that. Nothing like a captive audience that delivers sustained and predictable revenue. What TC said was as predicable as the sun rising and setting. Pro wrestling has more twists and turns than the prime time cable news shows. And we all know it's staged.

Those blunts are at it again: https://taskandpurpose.com/news/russia-admiral-kuznetsov-aircraft-carrier-fire/?utm_campaign=dfn-ebb&utm_medium=email&utm_source=sailthru&SToverlay=2002c2d9-c344-4bbb-8610-e5794efcfa7d And here is one for the Aflac duck to consider: https://news.yahoo.com/russian-politician-files-legal-challenge-110946258.html If this SMO, I mean war, wasn't so serious you could almost chuckle over these two.

Nice step by step summary. Clearly recommends the West piling on now when Russia is at it's weakest i.e. don't freeze the battlefield. The threat of WMD will always be there regardless of the strategy moving forward. Putin should freeze the battlefield to give troops and the population a breather - but can't due to warmongers breathing down his neck. Net net, Russian is gasping for air so it's no time to think about negotiations. I have read elsewhere a form of Russia will always exist and with WMD. So best to bled them dry now to delay the next war for many years. https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/target-russia’s-capability-not-its-intent

In "HARMs" way? https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1711586/Ukraine-live-war-Russia-Vladimir-Putin-US-missiles-border

I recall the US army used tanks in a direct fire artillery role both in Italy and Korea to smash hill top terrain. It's an option and terrain dependent. In the table top that is Ukraine, it would be a sign that standard equipment is having some sort of problems. The US went as far as building ramps to increase the elevation of the guns. Pretty sure the tactic found its way into field manuals. In those days, direct fire was still the most accurate since the results were right in front of the gunners and observers.

Got it, I think, thanks. Your software more precisely places the elevation numbers so instead of tracing a 20 to a 23 level change by hand/eye, the software places a 20 to 21 level change which produces a smoother result especially when the effect is map-wide. Nice.

Looks like the CMAutoEditor produces wonderful looking topography. Quick Question. Does the game engine adjust for the high granularity produced in terms on LOS and hull down status? Does the answer involve some controlled comparison testing? New to the thread but it's very interesting.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64016599 Fond memories of one of the final scenes in the film Titanic. Russia struck an ice berg named Ukraine and the band goes on. First viewed in Lyon France 25 years ago almost to the day while on business.

That might play into the West's hands. Nothing like a Western armed insurgency to push Belarus out of Russia's orbit. Many hate Russia already. Putin has complete freedom of movement inside Belsrus, so I don't see any advantage. But an interested wrinkle. BTW, the Suwalki corridor might as well be in another galaxy given how well the RA performs.

Kissinger speaks (again): https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/the-push-for-peace/ If the pre-war dividing line between Ukraine and Russia cannot be achieved by combat or by negotiation, recourse to the principle of self-determination could be explored. Internationally supervised referendums concerning self-determination could be applied to particularly divisive territories which have changed hands repeatedly over the centuries. err; same old, same old (man) The preferred outcome for some is a Russia rendered impotent by the war. I disagree. For all its propensity to violence, Russia has made decisive contributions to the global equilibrium and to the balance of power for over half a millennium. Its historical role should not be degraded. Russia’s military setbacks have not eliminated its global nuclear reach, enabling it to threaten escalation in Ukraine. Even if this capability is diminished, the dissolution of Russia or destroying its ability for strategic policy could turn its territory encompassing 11 time zones into a contested vacuum. Its competing societies might decide to settle their disputes by violence. Other countries might seek to expand their claims by force. All these dangers would be compounded by the presence of thousands of nuclear weapons which make Russia one of the world’s two largest nuclear powers. double err

I wonder how well equipped Ukraine is with FLIR? Both sensors and counter measures. Those mobiks would stand out well with ground so cold and their blood pumping at 98.6. Try warming up a BTG before an attack while trying to stay hidden. The Black Hornet was in the news, but a UAV with longer loitering at higher altitude time would be nice.

Hughes salvo model has been around for a while now. It originated in Post Grad work for the Navy in 1995. Since then, its been adapted e,g. understanding weapon systems and human operators are not 100% effective and it can be applied to most missile - antimissile engagements - not just naval tactics. Russia is probably shocked at how effective the AD has been. Too much reading the RAND reports and not conducting their own simulations. One of many links for those interested: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Salvo_combat_model The general is asking for a considerable number of MBTs and IFVs. Does he need them to push back to the pre-2014 borders? Is he bluffing. I think he wants and needs them. But will use them surgically. Perhaps merely attaching them in small numbers to the light infantry type formations they performed well over the summer and fall. But he must know the time it will take to do this even after the politics gets out of the way. I agree that NATO air power would be decisive quickly and end the war in short order. But those who control the a/c fear that would end the world too. Back to square one.

Was not referring to a decade from now, but the immediate future. For example, guarantees will only go so far until the missile attacks stop. The west and Ukraine need to find a toehold where there is some semblance of stability in the investment environment. They will need to turn the corner from a humanitarian effort to an economically viable re-building effort. That's why I mentioned the kinetic conditions need to be resolved and aerial attacks ended. Then we can be confident that a decades worth of investment will expand from building basic infrastructure to building a modern western society with all the comforts. I wonder what is easier, reigning in corruption or establishing a peace where Ukraine can thrive? If latter comes first, the former should take care of itself given a decade.

That may be true and could be a silver lining. But the term used was historically corrupt. Ukraine will need brave investors that will take risks understanding the possible gains to be realized. Politicians are not risk takers resulting in a potential back log of funds when Ukraine will need them the most. In any case, finding investors willing to re-build normalcy when their efforts can be ruined by an Iranian drone flight will be difficult. So one strategic aim is to produce conditions on the ground that will safeguard those investments. Not to mention the complexity of money coming in from all angles and being dispersed likewise. We have to cheer for a young democracy to be able handle such a situation. It will be tempting to take a piece of reconstruction pie.

Not surprising, but news today on the Patriots: Russia's Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova said in a weekly briefing that the U.S. had "effectively become a party" to the war in Ukraine, per AP. Ramping up U.S. military assistance, including the transfer of these weapons, "would mean even broader involvement of military personnel in the hostilities and could entail possible consequences," she added, without going into details. https://www.axios.com/2022/12/15/russia-us-missiles-ukraine https://dnyuz.com/2022/12/15/the-hellish-groundhog-day-trap-putin-could-force-us-into/ And one of the ongoing fears about leaving Russia with a Putin and access to missiles: “It’s Groundhog Day in a war zone with [Ukrainian President Volodymyr] Zelensky playing the role of Bill Murray,” a senior U.S. intelligence official charged with monitoring the conflict says. “Putin isn’t going to stop and he’ll take out whatever is rebuilt just for spite.” “The Russians are firing about 20,000 artillery shells a day, most of them more than 40 years old,” an analyst explains. “Ukraine fires back with between 4,000 to 7,000 rounds a day. Russia can’t keep that up, so even if they cut back to 10,000 a day—not including rockets and weapons attached to drones—that’s still a lot of hellish damage to the rebuilding effort.” Although there’s no doubt that Zelensky’s benefactors are sympathetic and eager to fashion what Shapochkina describes as “an overall expectation that postwar Ukraine can emerge as a second Germany in terms of industrial capacity,” intelligence officials say those efforts are doomed to fail until Putin is removed from the trillion-dollar calculation. There’s another elephant in the room,” warns one intelligence specialist. “How do the politicians dispense what will undoubtedly amount to more than $1 trillion in a country that’s historically corrupt.” Ouch.

Go for it ... and deposits over 10K USD get a free case of Chinese motor oil. The Nigeria 10Y Government Bond has a 14.595% yield. 10 Years vs 2 Years bond spread is 281.8 bp. Normal Convexity in Long-Term vs Short-Term Maturities. Central Bank Rate is 16.50% (last modification in November 2022). The Nigeria credit rating is B-, according to Standard & Poor's agency

Tracking has to be a nightmare. The front is a chopping Pacman right now. The US has struggled in peacetime to account for 100% of all allocated funds times. Imagine the administrative disaster Russian is. They fear losing a tank to enemy fire as much as just losing track of it on the way to the front.

100s of million of people don't play on World Cup teams and they are discussing the tournament - just not here. Many here vote and are taxpayers and do have an influence on policy - sometimes larger than would be expected. Think of our banter as a potential force multiplier. The back and forth debate, if civil, can educate and education informs the tax payer. Some of what seems to be personal here is not. Some of the worst arguments are within family. You will not find a better thread on the war anywhere. From tactical to strategic. From technical to humane - this is where to be. And many posts come with sources to back up the writers thoughts.

South Africa too in 1989. Small but real program. If I recall they may have worked with the IDF on the first and only test. As an aside, I was working on a project at Los Alamos in the early 90s when a group of Russian speaking people sat down next to my team in the cafeteria. Our host said don't worry they are from Ukraine.

Ok, no problem. Let's spec this out a bit. - What size map works best? Larger the better? - What would be the overall theme of the campaigns? This woudl help select maps to work on based on terrain. And small edits to the map might be beneficial. You almost can do a version of Kursk for example. Or maybe Grossdeutschland in the Spring of 1944. Counterattacks around Târgu Frumos. So you can tell the player, "these maps were prepared in the spirt of ... ". However, they can used them as they wish. Kevin

I think the writer is saying that today, surrounded by media, acts are more visible and it will be impossible to commemorate the Russian soldier i.e. build statues and parks in their names. Perhaps today's Russian will see things as they are (doubt it) and not conveniently forgot how their boys behaved in this war and treat them like supermen as they did after WW2. Yeah, I had to read it again Statures built from stolen toilets bowls and washing machines are not too glamorous and make a poor selfie backgrounds.

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/russian-federation/russias-quiet-riot Behind a paywall. Here some of it below. Russia could be in the process of sublimation i.e. the transition of a substance directly from the solid to the gas state, without passing through the liquid state. If Russia was merely evaporating it might be able to hold the fort for a while ignoring its pathological history. A soft landing for a while. But the entire society is in a form of the Stockholm syndrome so this will be tough. In the 90's Microsoft baled out Apple over anti-trust fears. MS needed a competitor. Apple re-made itself and the rest is history. Perhaps that's a model to consider. There is nothing wrong with a freedom loving competitor. Better than having the light switch thrown as Russian passes into the ethers. In October, at this year’s edition of the Valdai forum in Moscow, Putin’s highly staged annual meeting with foreign political analysts, the writer and ultranationalist Alexander Prokhanov defended Russia against its critics. Addressing the president, he said, “Very often foreigners ask us, ‘What can you, Russians, offer to the modern world? Where are your Nobel Prize winners? Where are your great discoveries, industrial and scientific achievements?’” To that, Prokhanov offered his own answer: “Russia can offer a religion of justice, because this religion, this feeling is at the heart of all Russian culture and Russian self-sacrifice.” His statement fits well with the messianic tone into which Moscow’s propagandists, ideologues, and officials have fallen, claiming that Russia is in an existential battle with the West—or what they deride as the embodiment of global Satanism, in this sense, unwittingly imitating the Iranian clerics who have long denounced the United States as “the Great Satan.” (Perhaps in a nod to Russia’s multiconfessionalism, former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev has extended the line of Russia’s spiritual enemies to Satan, Lucifer, and Eblis.) In fact, all that Putin’s Russia now “offers” to the world is violence and the imperial idea. And the symbol of the Russian soldier today is not the heroic savior of Europe, as commemorated in Treptower Park in Berlin, where 80,000 Soviet soldiers were killed in the final battle against Hitler. Rather, it is a thug dragging a stolen toilet bowl or washing machine (revealing the profound poverty of the areas deep inside Russia from which Putin’s soldiers are mostly recruited). In 2020, the Russian economist Vladimir Gimpelson predicted that by 2030, the number of working Russians in the 20- to 40-year-old age group would decline by about 25 percent primarily because of fewer births. But since then, there has been a pandemic and a war and an exodus, and the hole in the workforce will soon become gaping. The demographer Mikhail Denisenko has estimated that if those mobilized this fall serve in the military for one year, Russia’s population will experience 25,000 fewer births.

Do we have any idea of how much force the UA has in that area.? The info might be impossible to get or publish on the internet. If so, it's understandable.

I think it's coming back to me. For example, a QB map can be designed with the selection Allied Attack. Then the AI plans are programed to reflect the attack. However, if the player uses that map and in the QB set-up selects Attacker - German Army and plays Allied Force Defender, the QB engine uses the AI program for an Allied attack and applies it to the German attack. So all those QB map have the potential to be used either or. But they should be checked to make sure the plan conform to the nature of campaign.

Really nothing once WMD are in "enemy" hands. This is why preventing nuclear proliferation has been a grand strategic objective since the end of WW2. This is especially true for those who believe they are heading for 72 virgins after Armageddon. But in the hands of Russia, who can't compete conventionally and still have delusions of grandeur, blackmail is all they have. So it becomes a stare down to see if one side blinks or hits the red button. So we have to ask, is Ukraine the West's red line for this stare down? If not where? Poland, Germany etc..? At some point the stare down has to take place since (again) all Russia has is nuclear blackmail.