kevinkin

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11588115/Putin-rages-against-West-New-Year-message-people-Fatigued-dictator-appears-state-TV.html But Putin, 70, looked strained and worn as he addressed Russians on television His message was also tired, again claiming he was taking on Nazis in Ukraine He coughed at several points, and appeared weary and aged in a message broadcast, as his missiles pounded in horrific attacks Ukraine even as people prepared to mark the new year 'We will win and go only forward for the sake of our families and Russia. For the sake of the future of our only and beloved homeland.' All we needed was "I will always love you" and a fade to black to cap off that speech. Have a great 2023 everyone.

Another approach would be to retain several engineering firms and let the Black Rocks of the world invest in those companies. At issue, the perceived "risk" involved. Hard core construction would rather do what it does best and let the financers and insurers e.g. Lloyd’s carry most of the risk. Maybe we will get peace when these guys say enough is enough let's break ground without fear of buzz bombs undoing our work. So, stop and give Ukraine what it needs and be done with it. The writer is a bit naïve since this model is not new. Black Rock happens to be an easy target now whose name will fade away as others jump on board.

https://www.theamericanconservative.com/blackrock-plots-to-buy-ukraine/ A little fireworks for New Years: It is all rather infuriating: one can almost guarantee BlackRock is getting paid handsomely by the Ukrainian government for advising on this reconstruction roadmap. And where is the Ukrainian government currently getting its funding, given its economy is in shambles and war is an expensive undertaking? The United States government, of course. By the end of the calendar year, the U.S. will have provided $13 billion in direct budgetary support for Ukraine’s government to avoid shortfalls and outright bankruptcy, and President Joe Biden has promised to support Ukraine for “as long as it takes.” So, BlackRock gets paid by U.S. taxpayers via the Ukrainian government to devise a plan that ensures the success of their future investments in Ukraine, made from money gained by making American housing unaffordable. With a deal like that for our financial and political elite, why would they ever want peace? The Ukraine Target 2030 Fund; coming to a 401k near you. I wonder how many shares Putin will pony up for?

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/zelensky-signs-controversial-news-media-regulation/ar-AA15OwwQ Anyone know the affiliations of those who sent the bill(s) to Zelensky? This could be much ado about nothing e.g. just wanting to avoid loose lips sinking ships for the time being. Journalists don't ever want any curbs on their bread and butter. So a push back is sort of natural.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/putin-unaccustomed-to-losing-is-increasingly-isolated-as-war-falters/ar-AA15NItw Luka better stay away from windows this New Year. And have the caviar checked with a Geiger counter to be on the safe side. When Vladimir Putin visited Minsk last week to discuss deepening cooperation, a sarcastic joke by his host, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, seemed to ring all too true. “The two of us are co-aggressors, the most harmful and toxic people on this planet. We have only one dispute: Who is the bigger one? That’s all,” Lukashenko said.

There has been some concerns over the US Sealift Command's operational readiness when the balloon goes up. https://www.businessinsider.com/us-stress-tests-ships-that-would-carry-troops-to-war-2019-9 The transport of Bradley IFVs to Europe should be no issue, but good training nevertheless. I think the real concern is related to their vulnerability in the Pacific as opposed to the Atlantic. A lot of talk about pre-positioning stuff to minimize the risk to cargo ships during a war.

The other option is a truce and peace talks like the various negotiations that characterized the later years of the war in Vietnam. Hanoi used those breaks to rebuild for counteroffensives in 1968, 1972 and finally in 1975. Kyiv would have the same option. Supplied by American arms, Zelenskyy would likely plan further gains while Putin would get no real reprieve. There is one for those watching the clock. But this approach still need to acknowledge UA losses during time of combat. https://www.military.com/daily-news/opinions/2022/12/28/putin-grasping-wonder-weapon-hypersonic-missiles-wont-help-russia.html

What's safer? Poor and at the front or rich and behind the lines?. https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/sudden-russian-death-syndrome/ar-AA15MHof

Are any significant numbers Bradley IFVs prepositioned in Europe or are most coming from the states? Here are some on the move in March. Maybe that's what POTUS is referring to. Dozens can't hurt in the short term. https://www.defense.gov/Multimedia/Photos/igphoto/2002961577/

You can stitch together a sweater in a week or two. Try stitching together lost markets and supply chain relationships in the same time frame. Although the world requires Russian energy exports, it does not have to bend over backward to get it.

More endgame "analysis": https://www.19fortyfive.com/2022/12/100-billion-for-ukraine-congress-needs-to-explain-why/ Many suggest that just perpetuating the war by providing enough weapons and support to Ukraine to prevent it from losing helps U.S. interests by ensuring Russian conventional military power will continue to be degraded. That, however, is a dubious strategy, as it concurrently ensures that the Ukraine people will continue to die in large numbers. The stakes are too high for mistakes in our support of Ukraine. Before allocating another dollar in 2023, Congress should explain to the American people how this money advances the vital national interests of our country. Otherwise, we need a new plan. Then the article just ends. Again, the plan must account for speed since it appears some inside the beltway are getting impatient. This is the second recent report the stares an endless war in the face, but not allowing Ukraine to lose.

Chalk this one up to "it's about time". https://apnews.com/article/technology-politics-russia-ukraine-war-government-515d68aa0d0460dd07b8797dd063cd6c?utm_campaign=dfn-ebb&utm_medium=email&utm_source=sailthru&SToverlay=2002c2d9-c344-4bbb-8610-e5794efcfa7djo But should we fear these get into the hands of someone near a commercial flight line? Do major airports jam these things?

Lots of stories on Kreminna this morning. You can almost taste a shift in initiative going on. https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-kreminna-battle-recapture-russia-supply-lines/32197165.html A while back the ISW said of the RA: This composite force grouping suggests that Russian forces are pulling troops from various points throughout the theater to fill holes in the Svatove-Kreminna line and compensate for the continued degradation of conventional units - December 26. And to the south: the Russian offensive against Bakhmut is likely culminating as ISW forecasted on December 27.[1] US military doctrine defines culmination as the "point at which a force no longer has the capability to continue its form of operations, offense or defense,” and “when a force cannot continue the attack and must assume a defensive posture or execute an operational pause.”[2] If Russian forces in Bakhmut have indeed culminated, they may nevertheless continue to attack aggressively. Culminated Russian forces may continue to conduct ineffective squad-sized assaults against Bakhmut, though these assaults would be very unlikely to make operationally significant gains. https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-28 This may not crack the front wide open, but maybe sow further doubts in the minds RA grunts. I read Wagner is attacking Bakhmut so Prigozhin can show up his "buddies" where in-fighting is more important than sound military thinking. https://www.newsweek.com/bakhmut-battle-wagner-group-heavy-losses-isw-1770075 What a way to lose a war.

Another one bites the dust: https://www.the-sun.com/news/7003433/mystery-death-russian-general-putin/

A new twist on an endgame. Let the private sector help fund a stalemate in Donbass. The article never mentions the human toll the war is placing on Ukraine while ceding territory to Russia claiming the Mother is *ucked geopolitically already e.g. the damage is done. https://lawliberty.org/who-should-really-support-ukraine/ Give 1:1 tax deductions and credits for all donations to the Ukrainian cause (including hourly in-kind volunteering). Make giving less onerous. Honey we have to offset that Avon income. I am heading to the front to shoot me some Russkies.

I thought the same just viewing it now.

Another summary article today: https://www.forbes.com/sites/craighooper/2022/12/26/ukraine-converts-219-billion-in-us-military-surplus-into-fearsome-force/?sh=4142de85370a Ukraine supporters, when agitating for more and better weaponry point toward Ukraine’s quick exploitation of the 38 U.S. supplied High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems, or HIMARS. But these front-line assets are largely “fire-and-forget” platforms, and, as export items, their effectiveness depends more on the end-user’s prowess in finding, reporting and targeting relevant enemy assets. That is why the U.S. has put a lot of emphasis upon modern command and control assistance. Command post vehicles, including well over 80 different radars of various types, jamming gear, tactical communications systems, SATCOM terminals and surveillance equipment helped Ukraine plug critical capability gaps. And yet, while these tactical tools are high-demand and are, in many cases, considered relatively modern equipment, the U.S. has plenty to offer. Naval warfare article that sort of reads a bit like the ground warfare conducted by UA leadership: https://www.usni.org/magazines/naval-history-magazine/2022/december/nimitz-way Rear Admiral Bradley Fiske, who said that “there is no sharp dividing line” between strategy and tactics and that the difference between them is “the strategist sees with the eye of the mind, while the tactician sees with the actual eye of the body.” During World War II, Nimitz balanced nurturing leadership with strategic artistry; he “saw” with both of these eyes, coupled tactical outcomes to strategic goals, and became a genius who “does not follow the rules… [but instead] invents them.” - I found the underlined passage new to me. Successful operations required both eyes on the ball.

Nothing like a vanilla year end what's up the next summary: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-63987113?utm_campaign=dfn-ebb&utm_medium=email&utm_source=sailthru&SToverlay=2002c2d9-c344-4bbb-8610-e5794efcfa7d Number one and 5 seem likely with the big caveat" The big question is how many Ukrainian forces are free and available for the offensive at this point, and what timetable General Zaluzhnyi has on his desk stating how many new reserve brigades and corps that are being built will be ready in one, two or three months from now, including manpower, armoured vehicles and heavy weapons.

Vlad is getting his holidays mixed up. It's not April Fools Day: https://sports.yahoo.com/putin-says-russia-ready-negotiate-093854014.html

New Years is a time for lists and we have one to add to and/or edit below. https://www.businessinsider.com/biggest-russian-blunders-during-putin-war-against-ukraine-2022-12#underestimating-western-unity-5 Screwing up the invasion Overlooking the strength of Ukraine's defense Abandoning lots of weapon Expending its stockpiles of precision munitions Underestimating Western unity A boiler plate list. Perhaps the thread can do better. Here is one, deliberately targeting civilians and their critical infrastructure.

I think it comes down to timing. When and where does the UA and the West decide to kick in the rotten door? When is the state of the UA compared to Russia's so large as to minimize Ukraine's casualties. Maybe we will see this at the sector level and not across the entire front through the winter i.e. the rotten door is taken apart in pieces. This scenario probably take us beyond February. The missing info is the state of the UA. How much stronger do they get vs the RA month by month. I have a feeling the UA will concentrate the strength it accumulates at weak points over the winter resulting in major operations a few weeks before Spring thaw.

Just put them into perspective. And IMHO they are being overestimated by orders of magnitude. The sky is not falling. And if if were, TC would have zero influence one way or the other. Given SS is the third rail of American politics, that trade won't come up. But come to think of it, Gaetz et. al. would defund SS too. So other forms domestic spending would come into play. OK, got it. Thanks for clarifying "common cause" in those terms. I have no objection to that or anything in this thread. Let's not get all worked up on side issues and those who muddy the water like TC. They will have no effect on ending the war quickly and on the Western terms. Was the attack on Zelensky relevant - yes. Was it important toward winning or losing the global war - no. If the west can't defeat Russian despite cable news hacks, then we have real problems outside the scope of the thread.

I didn't get the memo. Do we have a flag to salute as well? Not so sure about that. Back in the day Chuck was a mega-star. More people knew of his name than of TC. Sure, media has changed with its instantaneous reach. But I think Chuck was far more influential given the name recognition and fewer places to obtain information. Likewise, Walter Cronkite was 100x more influential than anyone on cable news is today. Or twitter or wherever. However, the more information outlets the better. Even if the messenger becomes diluted in all the noise. About entertainers salaries: just follow the money to understand why success in certain professions can be very lucrative in the US. Brandon Nimmo and TC both make 10 million a year. One is a ballplayer and the other a political entertainer. You can chalk that up to the guy who figured out those platforms are a great place to sell cars and pharmaceuticals.

I don't watch much TV now (just sports), but did TC actually "publicly agitated for the violent overthrow of the US government." If so, was it just a bad joke. He is well known for them. Even if he was serious, his lawn mower brigade would never make it out of the garage. No threat to anything but the BMW parked in the driveway.

TC couldn't start a lawn mower. Russian TV pointing to him shows again how desperate their people are for self-vindication and a weird form of hope. Sort of like Americans who watch prime time CNN, MSNBC and Fox. TC is no Charles Lindbergh. At least Chuck had a resume.