kevinkin
-
Posts
3,208 -
Joined
-
Last visited
-
Days Won
2
Posts posted by kevinkin
-
-
https://www.newsweek.com/patience-will-pay-off-ukraines-counteroffensive-ret-us-general-1799841
"Ukraine's army will attack when they're ready, at time and place(s) of their choosing, & they will be successful in their operation to regain sovereign territory, transitioning to offense takes significant preparation, coordination & synchronization," he wrote. "This ain't a video game."
-
I agree. Just experimenting.
-
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/russian-federation/why-putin-needs-wagner
Essay on the relationship.
-
2 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:
Given that Ukraine has a long history of splitting brigades into battalion components, sometimes widely separated form each other, it is possible that portions of these units might be in the fight sooner than others.
That agility is really special. Plug and Play with a logistics trail hard to pin down. Defending on home ground helps. I would be interested in finding out how the UA is managing their rear areas with respect to ammo storage, R&R, and maintaining their stuff overall.
-
25 minutes ago, dan/california said:
Of course ideally the Russians would get a clue and quit, but who knows.
I am still thinking a whole bunch of the new material support is earmarked to operations beyond this campaign season. Perhaps setting up an armed camp similar but more vast than Israel has survived under. If I could get my hands on Putin I would ring his neck. Maybe my golf buddies in the NJ pizza trade could lend some "offer you can't refuse" with the cement truck whirling in the background.
-
45 minutes ago, dan/california said:
Well here is one guys take
I am thinking that a major percentage will have to be held in combat ready reserve to provide for unknowable developments over the next several months. What is encouraging is that the build up will allow the UA to give it's forces real battlefield experience without throwing their new stuff to the wind. Recon pull is a effective way to do this. On the job training is the best I can up with given the stakes involved. However, I wonder how much NATO material support it aimed at the the negotiating table rather than the fight itself?
-
This was forwarded to me I and decided to post it here for wider distribution:
-
17 minutes ago, Artkin said:
The Oryx website shows what equipment has been donated (At this point it's more like 10-15 brigades):
Thanks. That's what I was looking for. Do you think the UA maneuvers entire brigades, or typically more at the company level? I think it's at the company level. Which means the task organizations they put together for upcoming offensives will be interesting to see.
-
1 hour ago, Artkin said:
Ukraine has about 10 brigades of new equipment to burn through.
Hi, I am not doubting your assessment. But I would like to see a listing of this and how it is structured into maneuver elements. It would help me wrap my brain around the possible operations that can be expected this summer. Yes, it's May 12 now. No need to jump through hoops to get an OOB. Maybe others have something handy.
-
Not much to make of this. There is a nice map in the article.
"The donation of these weapons systems gives Ukraine the best chance to defend themselves against Russia's continued brutality," UK Defence Secretary Ben Wallace said.
Let's not read too much into "defend" and "not ready".
-
6 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:
What I am unsure of is how much territory they can retake before manpower and other resources are tapped out.
"ay, there's the rub"
3 minutes ago, MSBoxer said:Application of minimal pressure at the proper point may create multiple fault lines.
I agree. But would just make point plural. The UA has to retain enough combat strength to exploit those fault lines and defend what they have or obtain economically.
-
32 minutes ago, MikeyD said:
If you can point out a group of people more knowledgeable about the full depth breadth and scope of this war than the posters here I'd like to meet them.
Let's hope they are in NATO. In the Pentagon. And don't look at Warfare Porn too seriously.
-
6 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:
So keep posting the keyhole links you post as they are valuable to this discussion. Just as the drone bombers and PGM strikes are.
Warfare porn provides no actional battlefield information to anyone and just gets the dumb and ill informed jolly's off. Posting a link to the AP or ISW is a different and more meaningful way for people to stay informed. Everyone knows this.
Just some are addicted to watching a mans head blow off. And then giggle like a school girl.
-
1 minute ago, Offshoot said:
No doubt for some they are just war porn, but also:
Because no matter how narrow, it can still be a view of reality.
Because multiple narrow views of reality can be compiled to provide a wider view.
Because there is more to war than just strategic, operational and even tactical views, such as the personal view. The videos can provide a view into the personal experiences of people directly involved in the war.Sounds like a premise for a first person narrative book 5 years from now. I will copyright that now: "How Narrow Views win at war, business and life."
Thanks for the tip.
-
44 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:
Looking through a keyhole is very different when you have a pretty good idea of what is taking place on the other side of the door compared to when you don't.
Then why look through the keyhole in the first place. Warfare Porn?
-
How much info on the war have or are getting through a keyhole that only enlightens a narrow view of reality? In a broader sense, Plato's Cave. I think we need to be careful aligning tactical videos and their positive UA results to wider operations and assuming there a one to one correlation. These videos filming Russians die might be fun to watch, but they need to be placed into context. ISW has been careful and steadfast in this regard. They are not watching this war through a keyhole. Battlefield videos provide insight. But studying them, even all of them, since Feb 2022 would not win any war. I am not saying these films are not suggestive of what in occurring on the ground in favor of the UA. But where are the films of Ukrainians troops getting hunted down, mauled, and crying for mommy? (n=1 is not an answer).
-
57 minutes ago, Centurian52 said:
But it's part of a larger pattern of local counterattacks happening at an increasing tempo.
Recon Pull?
-
“I do think that we have enough support within Congress to sustain this for a good deal longer,” McConnell said in an interview with Bloomberg News. “All the leadership in the House and Senate in my party is very much in favor of defeating the Russians.”
-
35 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:
May 9th parade
The parade was like a funeral. The lone T34 was like the Riderless Horse, Black Jack, at Kennedy's Funeral. In 1963 it was symbolic and hopeful for the US. In 2023, it's symbolic and dreadful for Russia.
-
7 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:
That's my thinking
Mine too. But you laid it out nicely. Recon pull. Find enough points of penetration in the north to threaten the Donbas. Switch to south; switch back the north and out Boyd cycle the Russians. The land bridge has now become so obvious a target the UA can use that to hold RA forces there with a minimum of effort so as to place the RA onto a "Horns of a Dilemma". These types of maneuver can reveal was it really important to the enemy. Then you can attack their weakness; not their strength. In the end, the house of card collapses. The enemy can't differentiate what was impotent from what is important.
-
3 minutes ago, danfrodo said:
Keep jabbing, keep shaping, keep draining the enemy, keep causing fear & demoralization.
I agree. While we all want this mess to end in victory as quickly as possible, now is the time to take a deep breath and get it right. At work we used to call it: "the 3 foot put to win the Masters - don't blow it".
-
17 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:
So let's say Ukraine has already incorporated this into their battle plan.
Interesting observation. Does that mean the the offensive will wait for the missiles to arrive and become operational? Citadel was delayed because numerous new tanks, assault guns and anti-tank guns were being moved into position. One of those operational questions there are no easy answer to. In the present case, the RA is already dug in. Will they get any stronger? Will they get weaker by July? Will events outside Ukraine's control mess things up? I don't think the Storm Shadow would in itself will hold up things if all else is ready. Ukraine wouldn't place the fate of the offensive on one system. But if all they need to do it delay a few weeks, maybe adding those missiles would be well worth the wait. If the UA is planning on 2 months of heavy sustained offensive combat, there is plenty of time. Politicians be damned.
-
Yeah, well I will take the NJ mob over Putin's pansies any day. Flood the trenches with irresistible cardboard pizza and their bowels will seize up. War over. They don't call it Atkilios pizza for nothing. That's called un-maneuverable warfare.
-
And Christopher Nolan's part in Oppenheimer this summer. Darn, they did transform him into the look of the scientist. But the looks do resemble Putin too. Intentional? Nay.
How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?
in Combat Mission Black Sea
Posted
https://www.newsweek.com/patience-will-pay-off-ukraines-counteroffensive-ret-us-general-1799841
"Ukraine's army will attack when they're ready, at time and place(s) of their choosing, & they will be successful in their operation to regain sovereign territory, transitioning to offense takes significant preparation, coordination & synchronization," he wrote. "This ain't a video game."