kevinkin
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Posts posted by kevinkin
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What level of UA success this summer will be enough to keep the west interested and support flowing? What level of failure would force Ukraine into unwanted talks? I think the support will always be there in an amount to keep Ukraine from falling. But maybe not enough for an ongoing string on offensives year after year. The lines will move forward, but perhaps not with a crushing blow. Myself and others think a crushing blow might not be in the interest of all stakeholders. How will the west define success? It might be less spectacular than we think.
Could the Hippocratic Oath apply; do not jeopardize incoming support and just keep getting stronger while Russia gets weaker. Chinese water torture, drip by drip. Don't go over to the offensive right now. Is there a hurry? The US elections?
I don't see a lot of risk associated with an offensive now other than losing trained troops. There can be a lot of benefits of entertaining "seek and destroy" offensive ops i.e. taking the battle to a weakened enemy. Nothing like getting the rats out of their holes into kill zones.It's only the west's fear of escalation that these questions come up in April 2023. Without that fear, this war should be over. Yet, that fear is not going away. And now China is more in the mix. Like it or not, the next 6 months will have to be measured on the ground and geostrategically. The Ukrainian people never deserved these cold calculations. But here we are.
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31 minutes ago, Centurian52 said:
I'm starting to think the CM AI is pretty realistic when it is controlling Soviet, Syrian, or Russian forces.
That's has been the thinking in wargaming over the many years now. AI is best suited to armies using directive control vs mission style control. (The Soviet style vs German and NATO doctrine). In CM, the AI scripts are pretty directive. But in the end the system is very good especially for a tactical game with such a high level of detail.
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9 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:
I'll summarize (in no particular order):
If the UA leadership has logically come to the same conclusion, then their planning is very much simplified. The wicked witch is dead. Maybe to a point were Crimea is 100% in play sooner rather than later. If they think the RA is so brittle than it will collapse when challenged to fight large, we might have to begin to think the progress of the offensive (if somewhat "slow" to the world's eyes) is timed - in part - by non-military considerations. Perhaps to the point where Russia is slowly press out of Ukraine so not to have a chance of some form of desperate escalation and also keeping China out of the picture as much as possible.
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11 minutes ago, BlackMoria said:
Pfffhhh. Blondes are so old school. Strippers or Porn Stars is where the real news is these days.
I never said what their occupation was. Let your mind go wild.
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36 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:
who is providing the funding and what the agenda of the publication.
Investigative reporting almost always has an agenda. It's a waste of time to go fishing for a story at random. They just don't fall in the reporter's lap. If the writer's boss tells him to go dig up or fabricate dirt on a rival (as if that has not happened before) the reporter should quit. That article will not have legs since it's based on public records which are not juicy enough for the news cycle. Now, if there were a few blondes in the story ...
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38 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:
there could be some truth to what this investigation has supposedly uncovered
Nothing wrong with bringing up items in the public record and letting the public decide if there is anything to it. Most don't have time to do that research ourselves. Does not look like the writer made any assessment other than implying "where there is smoke there is fire". Typical Washington banter, big deal. I am all for fast and lose business dealings as long as the law is obeyed. And the writer does not say any laws were broken. But maybe some judgment was affected along the way. I really don't care who the writer is or the publisher. I try to treat these type of reports as stand alone documents. That article will not have legs because it's based on public records which are not juicy enough for today's news cycle.
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Fast cars and politics are like fast cars and blondes. All well and good as long as you keep your eyes on the road and don't draw too much attention or break any laws on the way to Vegas:
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This is also as decisive a moment for Kyiv. NATO has been uncharacteristically united and bold in its support and arming of Ukraine. This sort of clarity of purpose is an outlier in Western democracies, and one that elections, economic variables, and other distractions may dilute in the year ahead. Ukraine cannot count on this level of support this time next year, whatever the press releases today say.
The Ukrainians face an enemy weaker than it has been for months, with the Russians even sending wounded convicts back to fight on the frontline, according to accounts from convict recruits.
Kyiv’s forces have better weaponry and training from NATO than ever before. And they surely have good, real-time information from their Western allies to pry open any advantage.
And the silence that we see now – the near total absence of TikToks or commentary from the Zaporizhzhia front line – may be the clearest indicator yet that this vital step is afoot
It has been quiet. There must be a tremendous chess game being played out behind the scenes. Love to be a fly on the wall in those planning meetings. Air temperature seems OK in that sector, while it must be still a little wet.
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1 hour ago, chuckdyke said:
Innovation.
Can they also mulch? Talk about cornering the market on 10K suburban homes in Monmouth County alone. Where there used to be will there are many way$.
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Reading the tea leaves, troop densities are just part of the equation. I always think about effective firepower. That is a comparison of your outgoing firepower vs the enemies incoming firepower. This ratio depends on factors other than sheer numbers. It depends on the old term force multipliers. C3ISR plays a huge role. Troop densities give a partial picture. Sometimes that’s all we have to go by. However, if the densities look reasonable for Ukraine and we know that their force multipliers are vastly superior to Russia, then the counter offensive should proceed well unless UA troop strength drops unacceptably so their advantages simply can’t overcome the low number of hands on deck e.g. intel identifies more juicy targets than can be engaged. Here is a report from today comparing UA vs RA targeting:
The pattern is consistent. Ukraine is rolling out drone-guided indirect fire at every level as rapidly as possible and to significant effect. Russian forces are also using drone-directed fire, but suffer from a comparative shortage of drones, and, until now, a lack of support from senior commanders. While artillery units have long operated Orlan-10 drones, these are in short supply and only at battery level or above.
It currently looks as though big data may be more powerful than big guns, and future conflicts may be determined more by the available drone fleet and its supporting software than the number of artillery barrels. But the current conflict may still have much more to teach us.
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Bit of a summary:
Mentions a "bridgehead" at Oleshky from an ISW post Saturday. The position has secure supply. Is that even possible so close to Kherson? AP speculates it's just a SOP photo op. I think probing around the RA rear areas is a good thing prior to a an offensive. So either way, it has to pee off the Russians.
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Sobering recap for the start of a new week:
An article on the Sudan rescue mission is also there.
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Yep, my cover is blown.
You can also use the large number of quick battle maps as starting points for scenarios. They don't have units, but you will have to delete the AI plans that come with the files. So you can take a huge QB map and pair it down to the area you want to fight in, then remove the AI plans and do the old "save as" to keep it. Then add in the OOB and your own AI plans and the scenario gets a huge head start. Small sandbox type scenario can be made in less then 30 mins once you get the hang of the AI plans.
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Got it. I took "some of the absolute worst people on this planet" the wrong way.
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Hi ... you will note that there is no separate menu selection for maps. They are always part of a *.btt scenario file. So a "map" is really just a vacant scenario without units or AI plans. You can add what you like to the vacant scenario. You can use other scenarios and delete the OOB and AI plans and just start off with the maps as is. So maps are 100% portable, you just have to clean them up for your own design. When to go to Scenario Editor > New; the menu combines the design of the map, creation of the the OOB and the AI plans. Everything is in in one package.
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2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:
Some of the absolute worst people on this planet become police officers because they seek power.
Power: Isn't that an major factor in the human condition regardless of the individual's profession e.g. politicians? Sure, the police have weapons and the instruments of state behind them. And I agree, unraveling a police state into a democracy takes far longer than converting a democracy via revolution into a police state. But frankly, I have known many an officer off the job, and they are just as fallible as the meek laboratory scientist. Orwell: "Beware the technicians". Chicken or egg. Did they become power hungry as police officers or before they took the oath? There in lies the rub. In some respects, the police are frustrated having little power to help solve the ills they find in the belly of the beast day in and day out. Lives thrown overboard in senseless acts of stupidity. Are there rotten apples? Yes. Are officer's behaviors generally more consequential? Yes. But that is just the nature of the terrain they battle in each shift.
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Another article using the 'borderlands" geopolitical concept with respect to Russia today - particularly helping China in the SCS. (Even indirectly) China can't be happy with their wayward son. The Philippines won't fall into China's orbit. Note the exercises and their size recently held. Even though Vietnam and Malaysia abstained in the UN, a Russian defeat would mess with China's calculus regarding the region and Taiwan. Apparently Russia added something tangible which is in danger of disappearing.
Meanwhile, over the past decade, in preparation for the war in Ukraine, Russia has sought alternate trade routes to Europe that bypass the Black Sea and has increased its presence in the South China Sea.
That's new to me. Does Putin think that far ahead?
The core borderland, where they meet, is Central Asia. In this sense, Afghanistan has been the perfect metaphor for how empires clash and coordinate. The nodes of the Black Sea and the South China Sea are balancing off one another as they interact through the strategies pursued by the U.S., Russia and China. The longer the conflict in Ukraine lasts, the more uncertainty there is in the Black Sea waters and the more pressure there is on China, on the shores of the South China Sea, to join the global economic war.
Our world is fraying at the edges, beginning in the European borderlands but potentially stretching into Asia. Geopolitical nodes will become only more important as supply chains are reformulated, competition for raw materials grows and technological change fragments cyberspace and more. The most critical nodes are the Black Sea and the South China Sea, where the U.S., Russia and China contend for influence and control.
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https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1760071/Russia-Scandinavia-ghost-ships-war-sabotage
First I have heard of this in the context of the current war. Probably just feasibility operations. But it's an interesting read. Modern day Vikings going at it in small ships.
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I will take one from column A, two from column B, and why not three from volume C. BTW, why no 5th column? That's only for special guests?
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5 minutes ago, DesertFox said:
Which one of the several doubles made the trip?
The other one.
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Wall Street Journal: Putin Makes Rare Trip to Russian-Occupied Areas of Ukraine
- Visit near the front lines comes as Kyiv gears up for offensive to drive back Moscow’s forces -Nothing else new so I will add: Putin is so inspiring he would make the Kentucky Derby favorite run backwards the first Saturday in May. All the the while showing off their perfect metaphor for Vlad, a horses ***.
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4 hours ago, JonS said:
Maybe Poland could stop huffing all that sweet sweet Russian gas first?
And then be the benefactors of comparatively higher growth in eastern Europe? So be it.
"Warsaw is also crossing over to nuclear energy to further distance itself from dependence on Moscow for natural gas and petroleum"
Only time will tell. Maybe it's just positioning. Anyway, Poland does not want to remain a buffer for the rest NATO forever. And I don't see any pushback from Germany or France on those recent statements by Morawiecki.
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Renewed rumblings within Europe over commitment to Ukraine:
Morawiecki called the relationship between Moscow and Beijing “the key to the future of the world” because both are aggressively warring or threatening their neighbors if they don’t meet their demands on territory and trade.
China steps in and we have all the makings of a Global proxy war centered in eastern Ukraine. And Macron didn't scare anyone.
Meanwhile Morawiecki called upon the United States to unveil a new Marshall Plan for Ukraine and for Europe to reaffirm its commitment and foster closer relations economically and militarily as Washington did after World War II in Europe.
Poland is spending 4 percent of its gross domestic product on security, modernizing its forces with M1A1 tanks, ordering F-35 Lightning II Strike Fighters and hosting U.S. F-22s, positioning air defense and long-range rocket artillery systems, Morawiecki said. It has also established a garrison post for rotating American forces.
Warsaw is also crossing over to nuclear energy to further distance itself from dependence on Moscow for natural gas and petroleum To modernize its digital infrastructure, Poland is working with Microsoft and Google, Morawiecki said.
Not surprising Poland would love to be the major benefactor of this new new "Marshall Plan".
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A perfect send off for a flock of mobiks?
A stupid question about campaigns
in CM2 Scenario and Mod Tips
Posted
I think your answer might lie on page 116 of the engine 4.0 manual. If so, the script can always be changed and the campaign re-compiled. I feel your pain. Campaigns take a lot of time and effort even for a full team of players. To make one yourself is pretty damn hard. I am sure a few others will come to the rescue better than I did. I bet there is a solution.
"Normally, to signal the end of a campaign, the [NEXT BATTLE IF WIN] and/or the [NEXT BATTLE IF LOSE] fields are left empty. However, any of the following list of keywords can optionally be entered there instead, signaling both the end of the campaign and either a minimum required overall campaign victory (if following [NEXT BATTLE IF WIN]) or a maximum allowed victory (if following [NEXTBATTLEIF LOSE]). This is most useful for “early ends” to campaigns where you want the final score to reflect the fact the early end of the campaign more than the success or failure of each battle along the way. Note that each keyword must start with an underscore.
_total defeat
_major defeat
_tactical defeat
_minor defeat
_draw
_minor victory
_tactical victory
_major victory
_total victory"