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kevinkin

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Posts posted by kevinkin

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted

    4 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

    So what exactly is it she said you disagree with and why is it a good idea for nobody to listen to it?

    I've noticed lately a significant quality contrast between your earlier posts and your later ones.  I think you'd be better off skipping your late evening posts.

    It's obvious what I disagree with and the quality of the posts are not up for you to decide on alone commissar. 

    0

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted

    35 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

    influential voice

    Or talking head? Give us a break. Please. If the deal looks good that means Putin is out. Take it. She is just another Princeton grad who knows little about the real world. I run into these freaks all the time.

     “If we just stop for a ceasefire, Russia wins because Russia has gained, illegally, territory that it has seized, and that is a problem,” Yovanovitch said. 

    And this is a person that might wear diapers to bed. Like POTUS. I hope the women has no influence on anything.  

    0

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted · Edited by kevinkin

    I read today that 'we" will know when the UA offensive is in full force when "we" see western tanks in combat. I will provide a link when a remember the source.

    But, now wait a second. Maneuver warfare is independent of a single system. And western AFVs might be better deployed in exploitation and then holding ground. Who has to prove what to who? Why wouldn't the UA hold all but the urgently needed donated equipment in reverse?  They are going to have a border and skies to defend for years. The issue here is how to produce a defeat that every Russian knows is true. NOW. This will not happen on the ground, but in the skies above the Borderland - Mother Russia. NATO has to impose a no fly zone over UA ops to retake their land. Period. Else, nuclear blackmail works. 

    0

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted

    1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

    Wagner

    I agree with this if I were running the company. Wagner still needs some form of base to operate from to do it's deeds. So how the interaction between the state and mercenary in Russia evolves probably depends on where and whom the base of power comes from. Could China become the base? Not from a geographical POV, but financially? Putting these hoodlums into the front line was very stupid. Might be better to sell their evil off within the evil empire where there value to Putin and China can be maximized as small unit goons. Don't be surprised if the name Wagner just goes away, but those troops do not. Rent a Goon will have a business forever. 

    0

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted

    1 minute ago, Battlefront.com said:

    This is looking quite good so far!

    I do have to say the RA is tactically withdrawing. They will say this is just another maneuver to win the war. But when will all this start failing the smell test with any "friend of Russia". (I am really ticked off at Brazil). ISW is now thinking the the RA could be defeated IN PLACE in Ukraine. If the RA takes that seriously, tactical withdrawals might be what we see across the front. Now is the time for the west to pile on with systems Russia can't counter. The only thing is, destroying the RA in place would be oh so nice.  

    0

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted

    30 minutes ago, Centurian52 said:

    You continue to demonstrate that you have absolutely no understanding of what I said. Do you even realize that you are attempting to counter me with arguments that are in complete agreement with everything I said?

    I don't even think you understand what you said yourself. If I am confused by your nonsense, how about are good friends who don't know English well? They must think: "what are these two idiots arguing over." 

    1

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted · Edited by kevinkin

    1 hour ago, Centurian52 said:

    You might try rereading it, and keep an eye on the nuance this time. The nuance is pretty important.

    There is no nuance. "Within" and "between" matter zero for THE ONE human population on Earth reproducing over generations with respect to passing on genes that might (and don't) affect individual behavior. Given the time scales, there is only one human population and it is not defined within or between with respect to behavior. If pay for a test that says you are 95% Irish and 4% English and remainder Russian are you a better chess player than your opponent that is 100% Native American? That is, without knowing the training history of your opponent?  And BTW both of those players grew up in Chicago. So within and without are not relevant when it comes to human behavior. 

    0

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted

     

    10 minutes ago, Centurian52 said:

    I feel like most of your comment is directed at Steve, not me. In fact I get the distinct impression that you didn't even read the rest of my comment, let alone any of my other comments in this discussion.

    I read all your comments and my recent one was directed toward your latest. The discussion was over whether Russian behavior at the individual and state level can somehow be assigned to genetics passed down through generations since the establishment of the nation. I think now we can agree that is impossible.  

    PS: As a rule I read the comments I reply too. Why not? 

    0

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted · Edited by kevinkin

    12 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

    I simply made the point that if a society spends hundreds of years purging a specific group and rewards another group, the gene pool is going to change if there's no outside force (i.e. immigration) to counter it.

    It won't in so few generations. And there is no selective genetic benefit on either the rewarded or unrewarded. Maybe the unrewarded don't have access to birth control and reproduce more. Maybe they die off because lack of healthcare. Maybe the rewarded inbreed. Maybe revolution wipes them out. Civilizations and their geostrategies are too short lived for natural selection affect their impact on the world. 

    3

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted · Edited by kevinkin

    2 hours ago, Centurian52 said:

    Other human traits are influenced by genes, and it makes all the sense in the world that behavior would be among those traits.

    So there is a gene for kindness, and no so kindness? And kind families pass on those genes to their offspring who become kind people? But being kind does not guarantee your genes will be passed on more than unkind people genes. There is no selective pressure on that behavioral trait. Even if they were, it would take hundreds of generations to effect a population. This timeframe is outside how long societies and their politics even exist. We have to separate physical and behavioral traits. Behaviors are learned and not inherited. Russians are not genetic misfits. They are not Home sapiens sapiens authoritative. The Russian culture has evolved, but, not locked into a child at birth. You would be hard pressed to differentiate the genomes of Germans and Japanese pre and post war. But their cultures and societies have changed a lot. This can't be natural selection given the timeframe. 

    5

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted · Edited by kevinkin

    1 hour ago, womble said:

    think that's where the geneticists would disagree. The gene pool won't hardly have a ripple in it, given the timescales involved. All that conditioning leaves marks on psyches, not DNA, not in centuries.

    I agree. The reproductive rate of humans does not result in a rapid evolution of behavior or even physical characteristics. Plus all it takes is a small comingling between "gene pools" too produce an averaging effect to minimize the differentiation of "lines" of behavior and physical characteristics. Humans don't evolve like viruses, but they often behave like them. Culture can evolve, but that's not passed on via genetics but by learning. Think of different languages, beliefs, dress, sports, roles of men and women. Learning can be positive or negative. Take 1000 Russian babies out of Russia at 6 months and place them in a western nation and their behavior as adults will not be like the parents that produced them. If detrimental behaviors were inherited at birth, they would be eventually selected out of the gene pool. And there would no substance abuse, mass killings, or other crimes etc.. Unless we are ready to say there are no detrimental behaviors that affect the overall reproductive success of the species because their rate is low. In any event, good or bad behaviors are not determined at conception. That would be crossing over into eugenics. 

    0

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted

    26 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

    Therefore, the Russian society has been socially engineered in a way that another society has not.

    I guess you can't count North Korea since they are just beaten into submission in the most overt way. But how about China? Don't they have this thing called social credit system? Suppression comes is several forms and degrees. When the day come when I can't replace my natural gas stove tops with the same there will be hell to pay. 

    1

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted

    Missed this last night on the War Zone:

    Ukraine Situation Report: Video Of Air Defenses Prompts Arrests
    Ukrainian officials are trying to keep imagery of their air defenses off social media after the massive attack on Kyiv.

    https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraine-situation-report-video-of-air-defenses-prompts-arrests

    Things were getting out of hand and you can't blame them. I wonder if warnings will extend to ground warfare video/pictures? (if they have not already). 

    0

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted

    Low income "quality" housing for Ukraine, night clubs, a walkable community with lots of greenery while dodging cruise missiles sounds unappealing for an investment. Let's not get into the corruption involved subsidizing investments that take place. In the real estate market there is the sad golden rule: today's condos are tomorrows slums. Yes location matters. Kiev is not Miami. On the water, on a golf course, warm good weather. Condos works. Ukraine has long 30 year long hole to dig out of. And will start with clearing the roads, building new schools and hospitals. Then attracting Ukrainians home. It can be done. But not artificially. Ukraine can't become a poster child. They have given too much for that label. But the west better manage the frontier or any progress will be destroyed. Maybe a West German model is better. 

    0

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted

    1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

    Ukraine has an amazing opportunity to make the east of the country be the envy of much of Europe.

    Well from a building POV, there is a lot of opportunity. Destination travel? That will take patience. They will have to model that marketing after other high value European countries. But the air raids will have to stop for years to attract others than young adventurers. Could they turn Bakhmut into a national park like Gettysburg or Antietam? Probably not. Envy of Europe other than the traditional fields of grain. Not sure about that. Ukraine is at a crossroads between East and West. Unless China, Russian, Iran et. al. completely change, Ukraine will be a frontier state. At least in all our life times. An armed camp. Israel has a travel economy based on Holy Land sites. But perhaps a South Korea model, business, Business, BUSINEES. And a DMZ. (Hate that term)

    BTW, let's not name the rebuilding effort the "Blinken Plan". That sounds ridiculous. Let's go with the "Freedom plan".  

    0

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted

    35 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

    Yet another report on Russia playing games with death and wound benefits.  Sheesh... give them their blender and flowers and be done with it! They are also falsifying medical reports to send wounded men back to the front who either need more recuperation time or should be discharged from duty.

    Would Russia and Ukraine be engaged in was/is called total war? I think Ukraine is. But Russia's approach is schizophrenic. Like digging your own grave with a teaspoon. It's as if Putin wants to punish the country knowing his *** is not on the line because he holds the codes and is China's lap dog. Every hand Putin plays is a loser. We have to find a way to get him to leave the table and then banish him from the casino. It's like dealing with a addict. I don't think there will be a report on Russian behavior that will surprise me now. There is a debate tactic. When your side has the topic won, you just let the other side ramble on desperately. Like I said, dig their own grave. If Ukraine can keep their losses at a bare minimum and still regain some ground, I think the west will continue or even increase support. When cornered, the west is betting on some sensible people taking those codes away. Perhaps they have well placed assets that give them the confidence to play this game step by increasing step. 

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