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Offshoot

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    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted · Edited by Offshoot

    A long and intelligent interview/discussion with Ben Hodges, particularly on scaling up armament production. It covers much of what has been discussed here. At one point he says the west seems to have lost it's "strategic backbone". From about the 40 minute  mark they discuss wargaming in preparation of the Ukrainian summer offensive.

     

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    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted · Edited by Offshoot

    10 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

    At least one soldier mutilated by a BMP, another possible one, and several definite close calls.  This, kids, is why you should never conduct a mechanized assault without adult supervision.

    Here's a rare view of a mechanized assault from the Russian side. It doesn't seem particularly organised, especially after one of their BMPs gets blown up, but I have no experience to say one way or another.

     

    0

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted · Edited by Offshoot

    26 minutes ago, Letter from Prague said:

    https://old.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/18nu2iq/destruction_of_a_russian_mlrs_apparently_a_tos1a/

    TOS going boom with some interesting commentary.

    The AA guys were probably relieved it wasn't them, until they got back and were blamed for not shooting down the drone.

    Wiki lists Russia as having ~45 TOS-1As  and as of late November there were reportedly 18 verified losses. Adding in captured ones, losses since then and possible unverified losses, Russia could have lost around half of what they originally had.

     

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    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted

    2 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

    I'm probably Kamil's biggest fan on this board, but I doubt Point 1 is factually accurate. So the rest of his conclusions become moot.

    Perhaps he means in the specific context of Ukraine.

    A former economic advisor to Putin in the early days contends that, in terms of actual delivered military aid, Russia is outspending Ukraine, the US, European countries, etc. by 3 to 1 (discussion on this point starts at 6:25).

     

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    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted

    Putin orders Russian military to boost troop numbers by 170,000 - https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/dec/02/putin-orders-russian-military-to-boost-troop-numbers-by-170000

    Quote

     

    Putin’s decree was released by the Kremlin on Friday and took force immediately.

    ...

    The defence ministry said the order doesn’t imply any “significant expansion of conscription”, saying in a statement that the increase would happen gradually by recruiting more volunteers.

     

     

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    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted · Edited by Offshoot

    1 hour ago, Zeleban said:

    But how do you think you can intercept the Shahed UAV, which has a speed of 160 km/h, using a quadcopter whose speed does not exceed 90 km/h? We all know from the history of the Second World War that to intercept a bomber using melee weapons (machine guns), a fighter must have a speed almost twice as fast as the bomber.

    If they are testing it in its designed role, we have to assume they have solved for this. The article says "Fortem "adapted" their product so it could intercept Shahed-136, which weighs about 200 kg, though specific improvements remain undisclosed." It's also a hexacopter designed to intercept drones, so it's probably faster than a quadcopter. And it has onboard radar for target tracking but the range isn't stated.

    If they are used to protect important infrastructure (their current stated purpose), they also wouldn't have to chase targets all over the countryside and the "built-in artificial intelligence optimizes interception efficiency by calculating the best position and angle of attack" - they could be the last line of defence.

    It could all just be marketing of course, but the testing will hopefully determine if it is fit for purpose.

    1

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted

    8 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

    I think this is a viable tool to combat "cruise missile" type drones as their trajectory is likely more predictable than a copter type drone.  But then again, if you can see where the Shahed is wouldn't it just be easier to shoot it down?  Seems Ukraine has had great success downing them in that way.

    It depends on what they have been using to bring most Shaheds down. We have seen videos of them being taken out with small arms or older anti-air kinetic weapons, but do these account for most of the downings? A re-usable drone that is at very little risk of being lost if it is being used to cover infrastructure a long way from the front lines could be one of the most cost-effective methods and free up systems that could be employed elsewhere.

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    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted

    Ukraine is developing and testing a drone they claim is very resistant to electronic warfare - https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3789361-ukraine-develops-ewresistant-drone.html

    Quote

     

    According to him, thanks to the GPS antenna, which is almost impossible to jam, the drone is very resistant to enemy EW. Due to the complete autonomy of the drone, the enemy cannot calculate its coordinates and the ground command, which makes it possible to protect the operators.

    Fedorov noted that the Backfire is being tested at the front and is showing good results. Over the past two months, the Ukrainian military has carried out at least 50 successful missions.

     

     

    3

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted

    I don't recall seeing this posted before and there has been a lot of discussion here about AI-controlled drones. This is a turret that uses AI being developed by a Ukrainian company. The AI is for target (personnel) acquisition, identification and tracking and determining firing solutions, so could possibly be incorporated into other platforms as well. The article says, however, that an operator still gives a command to fire so it is not completely autonomous.

    https://mil.in.ua/en/news/tgp-turret-with-artificial-intelligence-was-developed-in-ukraine/

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=04PatGZ1prk

    Quote

     

    TGP specifications:

    *automatic manpower detection: up to 1 km
    *target lock-on and tracking: up to 1 km
    *hitting a target measuring 2×2 meters at a distance of 1 km
    *stabilization of weapons and their alignment along the horizon
    *remote control at a distance of up to 100 meters via wire and network operation via Starlink
    *additional thermal imaging equipment to detect manpower at night
    *autonomy: 7 days without recharging
    *turret design is capable of lifting weapons to a height of 30 centimeters for digging and camouflage
    *weight: light stationary turret – up to 35 kilograms; module for placement on AFV – 110 kg.

     

     

    1

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted

    The Reporting from Ukraine (RfK) channel is saying that the Russians call the Ukrainian heavy "assault" drones Baba Yaga and dislike them so much they try to use their own drones to crash into them. An example is shown at 3:08 in the following video (it's from a Russian source so I couldn't find the original). The problem with this is that they would never know if it worked or not - RfK says usually not.

     

    0

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted

    1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

    Towards the end the drone goes down low and you can really get an idea of the topography of area surrounding Avdiivka

    This video from the 53rd shows some ground level views of the area to the south of Avdiivka as they do a tour of taken Russian positions. From about 21 min they show views across wide open fields to the coke plant and slag heap (Terrikon). Unfortunately the closed captions are not good.

     

     

    0

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted

    1 hour ago, danfrodo said:

    The video of the burning RU column, was that ambushed?  I hear a lot of small arms so it doesn't seem like just artillery strike.  Losing basically an entire RU company is some much needed good news.

    The first report I saw said it was HIMARS. I'm guessing the small arms sound is ammo going off in burning vehicles, of which there were a few.

    1

    How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

    in Combat Mission Black Sea

    Posted

    A recent and interesting interview with  Illia Vitiuk, the head of the cyber department at Ukraine's top counterintelligence agency. The cyber war doesn't get covered as much here but I think awhile ago there was a short discussion after someone asked about it.

    Meet the man leading the front-line effort in Ukraine's cyber war with Russia - https://www.npr.org/2023/09/06/1196975759/ukraine-cyber-war-russia-sbu-illia-vitiuk
     

    Quote

     

    But on Feb. 24, 2022, members of that agency — Ukraine's Security Service, or the SBU — took on another role: physically hauling important servers and technical infrastructure away from Kyiv to protect it from Russian invaders.

    ...

    Following Russia's failure to immediately overtake Ukraine, Vitiuk said SBU observed Russian hackers switch tactics, primarily toward intelligence gathering and disrupting the power grid.

     

    A recent example of a claimed hack: Ukrainian hackers and intel officers partner up in apparent hack of a top Russian bank - https://www.npr.org/2023/10/25/1208352887/ukraine-russia-bank-hack

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