Offshoot

I just watched this video today on the infrastructure situation in Russia. The first half is mostly videos of incidents and discussion of the causes starts at the 14:00 mark. The presenter used to work as an executive for a Russian company that designed and built power stations, so he speaks from some experience. He doesn't mention sabotage but perhaps obviously puts it down to money (less funding available), people (state enterprises most hit by recruitment for the war) and hardware (sanctions make important parts unavailable). Most surprising fact to me: the Russian government obliged different regions/cities to pay for rebuilding infrastructure in occupied Ukrainian cities, for example, St Petersburg has to pay for Mariupol from it's own budget, leaving less to maintain their own infrastructure.

This article on the Russian air force's operational choices (from Dec 04, 2023) discusses how the VKS have been pushing the A-50 further forward to try and keep their combat aircraft and air defence units safer, so it's not too out there that one might have been lost.

Because it is so rare, some armour v. armour, with a Bradley bullying a T-90M.

On the question of sabotage, a lot of fires in Russia have been reported since the start of the war and there is always the question of whether they were accidental or deliberate. Molfar tracks data on these fires and show a 125% increase in industrial fires in 2023 compared to 2022, with the vast majority occurring in warehouses and factories.

It could also ramp up the involvement of local forces via recruiting and training. It's apparent that not everyone in Africa is happy with Wagner's presence and some locals were already fighting them. If Ukraine could enlarge and improve those forces, they could become a bigger problem for Russia.

Russia already shot down six F16s, so they must be in use Based on Russian analysts, Reporting from Ukraine outlined a theory about how the ambush of the Russian planes happened.

They already had possession of the planes but could not use them fully for fear of losing them. We don't know what they have been doing with the planes they bought, but if they have just been sitting perhaps they are in better condition than the ones they have still been flying. Or they might feel more freedom to pillage them for parts. Or maybe whoever owns S7 was able to call in some favours to keep their business running; it doesn't necessarily have to have been done in the greater service of Russia, though having planes carrying cargo from international countries will no doubt help them to some extent.

Apparently it enables them to fly international routes without fear of the planes being seized ( https://simpleflying.com/russia-2bn-airplane-buyback-lessors/ ). Whether that also enables them to receive maintenance in other countries that aren't sanctioning Russia is another story.

Hopefully the start of a new crack, or the widening of an existing one. ‘We’re tired of being good girls’: Russia’s military wives and mothers protest against Putin

I don't know, sounds more like a load of old tripe to me

A long and intelligent interview/discussion with Ben Hodges, particularly on scaling up armament production. It covers much of what has been discussed here. At one point he says the west seems to have lost it's "strategic backbone". From about the 40 minute mark they discuss wargaming in preparation of the Ukrainian summer offensive.

An interesting BBC documentary that uses social media posts and other sources to see what happened to Russian marines (155th brigade) around Vuhledar. It is useful as it directly contradicts with evidence what the Russian authorities are saying about the offensive and losses.

Here's a rare view of a mechanized assault from the Russian side. It doesn't seem particularly organised, especially after one of their BMPs gets blown up, but I have no experience to say one way or another.

What does the Ukrainian fire here (at 21s) because something hits the ground and bounces a fair way in front of them and, according to the video time (which looks normal speed), there are about 4 seconds between firing and the explosion that takes out the tank?

The AA guys were probably relieved it wasn't them, until they got back and were blamed for not shooting down the drone. Wiki lists Russia as having ~45 TOS-1As and as of late November there were reportedly 18 verified losses. Adding in captured ones, losses since then and possible unverified losses, Russia could have lost around half of what they originally had.

An article on Izyum now and the social repercussions post-occupation. ‘I’m not sure I fully trust anyone who stayed’: Ukrainian city split by suspicion a year after Russian retreat - https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/dec/16/izium-ukrainian-city-russia-collaboration-putin-retreat

A Ukrainian FPV takes out a Russian UGV reportedly used for carrying ammo near Avdiivka

The Russians have worked out how to manoeuver in the grey zone - Flintstone turtle mechs Russian infantry uses ‘cocoons’ to covertly move across the terrain - https://mil.in.ua/en/news/russian-infantry-uses-cocoons-to-covertly-move-across-the-terrain/

Perhaps he means in the specific context of Ukraine. A former economic advisor to Putin in the early days contends that, in terms of actual delivered military aid, Russia is outspending Ukraine, the US, European countries, etc. by 3 to 1 (discussion on this point starts at 6:25).

Putin orders Russian military to boost troop numbers by 170,000 - https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/dec/02/putin-orders-russian-military-to-boost-troop-numbers-by-170000

If they are testing it in its designed role, we have to assume they have solved for this. The article says "Fortem "adapted" their product so it could intercept Shahed-136, which weighs about 200 kg, though specific improvements remain undisclosed." It's also a hexacopter designed to intercept drones, so it's probably faster than a quadcopter. And it has onboard radar for target tracking but the range isn't stated. If they are used to protect important infrastructure (their current stated purpose), they also wouldn't have to chase targets all over the countryside and the "built-in artificial intelligence optimizes interception efficiency by calculating the best position and angle of attack" - they could be the last line of defence. It could all just be marketing of course, but the testing will hopefully determine if it is fit for purpose.

It depends on what they have been using to bring most Shaheds down. We have seen videos of them being taken out with small arms or older anti-air kinetic weapons, but do these account for most of the downings? A re-usable drone that is at very little risk of being lost if it is being used to cover infrastructure a long way from the front lines could be one of the most cost-effective methods and free up systems that could be employed elsewhere.

The use of DroneHunter drones in Ukraine, which fire nets to catch enemy drones. These are made by a US company but are being tested and refined in Ukraine. The article says they can even intercept Shahed-136 drones ( https://en.defence-ua.com/weapon_and_tech/ukrainians_buy_dronehunter_a_predator_uav_to_catch_shahed_136_zala_and_orlan_10-8620.html ).

Ukraine is developing and testing a drone they claim is very resistant to electronic warfare - https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3789361-ukraine-develops-ewresistant-drone.html

I don't recall seeing this posted before and there has been a lot of discussion here about AI-controlled drones. This is a turret that uses AI being developed by a Ukrainian company. The AI is for target (personnel) acquisition, identification and tracking and determining firing solutions, so could possibly be incorporated into other platforms as well. The article says, however, that an operator still gives a command to fire so it is not completely autonomous. https://mil.in.ua/en/news/tgp-turret-with-artificial-intelligence-was-developed-in-ukraine/ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=04PatGZ1prk