Offshoot

You'll be fine. I'm not far from Hobbiton and there are no orcs to report. I think someone has been looking in a palantir too long.

Check out the ukraine_tbic channel, a Canadian volunteer medic in Ukraine - https://www.youtube.com/@ukraine_tbic He seems to be mostly involved in evac from collection points to stabilization points. From 20:40 in the following video he talks about the death of Pete Reed and how he was setting up a stabilization point with support from foreign NGOs, who also provide supplies.

Given that five (~20%) of the suspicious deaths of Russian businessmen over the past year have involved people associated with Gazprom, it begs the question of who is protecting who from who - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022-2023_Russian_businessmen_suspicious_deaths

Prigozhin getting all high and mighty and challenging Zelensky to a dogfight dual. Why does it look like Prigozhin is having trouble keeping his dinner down, maybe after some high Gs?

The UK MoD assessment is "...it is unlikely that Russia has sufficient uncommitted troops in the area to achieve an operationally significant breakthrough." This attack included elements of the same unit that complained about their commanders after heavy losses last November, so it seems nothing has changed - https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/11/07/elite-russian-marine-unit-slams-military-leaders-for-baffling-battle-losses-a79303 There was discussion here recently about the impact of Russian losses on the mindset of Russians generally, but I wonder what the impact is specifically on Russian frontline soldiers (not counting Wagner around Bakhmut given their policies on refuseniks). Do I remember rightly that there were recent reports of soldiers around Vuhledar refusing to attack? I thought it was mentioned in this thread recently but I couldn't find it. Retired Australian general Mick Ryan on "how Ukraine will seek out where Russia's next offensives might occur" - https://mickryan.substack.com/p/divining-russias-main-effort-in-2023

Indeed. That is why the original source for the data is better than a cut and paste tweet. It includes a section describing why sanctions assessment is hard and others that discuss their methodology and limitations.

In his thread he says "The city is almost deserted save for the odd, usually older, civilian who refuses to leave." The Kyiv Independent has a recent article talking to civilians still there. It makes for some grim reading in a way, but still interesting, especially in the context of discussions in this thread about what will happen with the civilian population if Ukraine takes back the Donbass. https://kyivindependent.com/national/one-night-in-bakhmut-inside-the-bleak-world-of-citys-civilians-as-russia-draws-closer

The Ukrainians got a second Russian Arctic TOR M2DT. It was curious to see a "V" on it. Maybe these systems have been operating in Ukraine for a while or are they still marking vehicles this way?

She pulled the data from another report - https://www.4freerussia.org/effectiveness-of-u-s-sanctions-targeting-russian-companies-and-individuals/ To be fair to her, in the linked thread she also posted another graph from the report showing number of transactions, which is probably closer to actual numbers of electronic components than just value. Again though, there are too many variables to draw firm conclusions, for example, maybe more but smaller in quantity transactions were made. Take the case of China, which is now their main supplier by far: the value of exports to Russia went up over 2.5 times but the number of transactions went up by only twice. Given the numbers involved, I would guess that price gouging does not account for all the increase in value.

This is a Mirror "exclusive" quoting "a senior defence source", so take it with a grain of salt. As the information comes from an "insider", no other, reputable media sources have picked it up. Apparently, the UK defence minister will update parliament on Monday, so wait until then - https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/uk-has-ambition-send-tanks-ukraine-pm-sunak-tells-zelenskiy-2023-01-14/ On the subject of Apaches though, this thread has discussed before lessons that Western military will take from the Ukraine war. Some of these are already being acted on - https://www.army.mod.uk/news-and-events/news/2023/01/new-apache-trains-to-fights-on-the-modern-battlefield/

On the topic, new Perun

The Kyiv Independent had an article on the Skala Battalion a few days ago too, with a bit more tactical info and a more sober take on how Bakhmut is doing - https://kyivindependent.com/national/hell-in-high-definition-inside-front-line-aerial-unit-surveilling-battle-of-bakhmut This also went together with a thread by NOËL in association with the Yahoo author featuring video footage -

Russia found some new infantry. Russian fleet loses another two flagships - intelligence source - https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3647091-russian-fleet-loses-another-two-flagships-intelligence-source.html "According to available information, most of the high-quality components [needed for repair] are missing due to Russian defense factories being unable to produce them." "It should be noted that the Admiral Kuznetsov is the only aircraft-carrying cruiser of the Northern Fleet, while the Admiral Nakhimov is one of the three missile cruisers of the Northern Fleet."

Preliminary reports of another long-range strike against a possibly large concentration of Russian soldiers in Havrylivka Druha, Kherson oblast, near the entrance to Crimea.

A unilateral ceasefire for Christmas? The grinch in me says they are only doing this so they can point out how the Ukrainians are unholy satanists when there is an inevitable 'violation'.

It ties in with recent comments by Prigozhin: "In Artemovsk [Bakhmut], every house has become a fortress. Our guys sometimes fight for more than a day over one house. Sometimes they fight for weeks over one house. And behind this house, there is still a new line of defence, and not one. And how many such lines of defence are there in Artemovsk? Five hundred would probably not be an exaggeration.” - https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jan/03/ukraine-wagner-leader-counts-cost-as-russian-offensive-stalls-in-bakhmut Probably as close to a climb down or admittance of defeat as you are going to get.

I assume the Russian forces were also resigned to letting it be and bypassing Sumy because their focus at the time was on reaching Kyiv as fast as possible. It would be interesting to know what impact Sumy had on stalling the push on Kyiv.

Except it also possibly caused the missile strike on the foreign volunteer barracks in March. I read a personal account of a more experienced volunteer who was so appalled at what was happening there that he left before the strike.

A short article on the defence of Sumy by largely ad hoc citizen groups at the start of the war. Zelenskiy called Sumy a bone in the throat of the Russians in his New Year speech. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jan/02/how-sumy-residents-kept-russian-forces-out-of-their-city

Some details on the tactics of Ukrainian tanks used for indirect fire

The only reports I have seen are about comments by Haidai on Telegram. The Guardian says: "The regional governor of Luhansk, Serhiy Haidai, said fighters in part of the city controlled by Russian command were forced to retreat to Rubizhne, a town a few miles to the south-east, as a result of Ukrainian military pressure." Also that Haidai says the Russians are heavily reinforcing the area. - https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/dec/27/ukraine-says-its-forces-are-close-to-recapturing-key-eastern-city-of-kreminna The Kyiv Post reports him as saying "The Russian army has relocated the military command from Kreminna to Rubizhne, Luhansk Oblast." - https://twitter.com/KyivPost/status/1607441610605842433

6. Renege on the agreement at a time of their choosing

That must be the reason for all the join the army to buy phones and sausages adverts

An article on the development of Delta software by the Ukrainians for visualizing the battle field alongside the development of the Ukrainian armed forces from it's Soviet beginnings. "Delta software developed to help collect and disseminate information about enemy’s movements" - https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/dec/18/our-weapons-are-computers-ukrainian-coders-aim-to-gain-battlefield-edge "That change has been a struggle. The Ukrainian army grew out of its Soviet predecessors, and many of its older officers have been shaped by that experience. In 2020, the generals even shut down the Aerorozvidka unit; it was only restored by the defence ministry as the innovation centre months before the Russian all-out invasion. The Donbas front is the last to establish its own situational awareness centre, in part because of resistance within the army, and as a result it has suffered most from lack of coordination and friendly fire, officials from the innovation centre argued. “It’s been total chaos,” one official said. “I don’t think they’re quite there yet,” said Nick Reynolds, a land warfare analyst at the Royal United Services Institute in London. “There are some centres of excellence within the Ukrainian armed forces, but it’s not blanket. The military culture imposed under the Soviet Union casts a very long shadow.” However, Reynolds said the Ukrainians were far ahead of Russian forces in making their forces more connected and agile. “Ultimately, the Russian side has not fundamentally changed their structures or practices. They have some level of technological enablement, but on the human level they are still very Soviet.”"