Lethaface

While we're on the topic of terror bombing civilians, for those that have the time and interest I recommend "Masters of the Air" by Donald L Miller. It's an interesting read on the US air campaign over Europe 1942-1945. The results of the Bombing Survey probably most of interest in this conversation. My take away was terror bombing is counter productive. 
https://www.simonandschuster.com/books/Masters-of-the-Air/Donald-L-Miller/9780743235457

China is fueling Russia in their war. Biden is correct - if so-called democracy world will allow Russia to win, next time western soldiers will die in future war, which will come very quickly.
 

I very doubt common IT specialist or any other of middle class of large Russian cities will hurry to enlistment office after this. Rather they join to so called "relocants" - those who went abroad. Snobbery of Russian midlde class so high, that they can't recognize themeselves neither as "political refugees" (because they are "out of policy"), nor as just "refugees of migrants" (because this is humilitating for their ego). And from there they will complain how boring in western countries, how it's bad because no Russian language in restourant menus, what a terrible service westerners have, because no 24/7 supermarkets and nobody will not deliver them pizza or analgin at 2:00 of night, and why rusophobic westerners call them "agressors" and didn't want give them resident card. 
This "relocants" already claimed something like "Ah, rusophobia of westerners and Ukrainians so high, that we now will stop to donate for AFU and will support Putin, we have no choice". Really? I do not care what these "liberals" can think. They too coward to make any decisive thing - either come to meeting against the war or enlist to army. What they want - comfort life, where they coul feel them like little nobles, and some more poor serve them, delivering them pizza at the night for a penny and lot of obscene words. 
Real "good Russians" never hesitated who is guilted, never say "not everything is so clear" and they clearly kno what need to do to stop the war. And this is not hypocritic "you should start negotiations" and "we are not responsible for Putin's crimes, so no any reaparations from usual Russians!"

Damn good one.  Vichy French did spring to mind after I posted as maybe the one case. But I would still be reluctant to make direct parallels.  German occupation and Russian occupation are two very different things.  All war is personal.  Some may jump onboard for money or ideology but there are grudges on the table that will last a century.
If I was in Ukraine and an invading force killed my son, I would wage a resistance that made the Taliban look like girl scouts until the Russians all died or I did.  That times several tens of thousands is where we are at right now.   

UKR ZSU-23-4M-A1 "Rokach" - upgraded "Shilka" with "Rokach-A1" digital antenna grid radar, also 4 MANPADs can be mounted. Can detect usual aerial targets on 25 km and drones on 6-9 km.
If we could solve the problem with 23 mm AA barrels and ammunition it can ve useful for frontline covering and infrastructure objects protection
 

If you see more videos from there, many of scared citizens say "we have to flee from the city". The citizens of European part of Russia cities have much more comfort life, than inhabitants of villages, small towns and depressive regions, which mostly enlisted to army. Do not shoot at the cities, this is the same as "do not provoke Russia" before a war. Every Russian MUST. MUST. MUST to feel that the war is fear, blood, dirt, loss of property. Not tells about endless victories "with small blood" onTV. Then maybe they can ask authorities - WHY? Because now they have moods "go,go,go, we are winining! Khokols, surrender!"  
But Belgorod really has many (around)military industry factories and military objects. What was a target - we don't know. Because all missiles were "intercepted by Russian AD in unpofessional way" %)
Official reaction of UKR command - "Belgorod suffered because of mistakingly Russian AD work"

Among my parents, friends, familiars, clients were noboby, who I could name "pro-Russian". So, our point of view very depends on our enviromment

Absurd. They were too enough tolerant to Russia as in a memory of common culrure post-Soviet space, but obviously most of them didn't want to hear that Ukraine have to be part of Russia. And 2014 became of the year when this tolerance cracked down. And since 24th Feb I think we have no return point. I hope

Well... Citizens of Belgorod joyfully write a gloating posts, when S-300/S-400 from their city outskirts were launching on Kharkiv. Now Belgorod received the second, more tough strike since last night. Officially 14 citizens of Belgorod were killed (among them two kids), 108 were wounded.
The center of Belforod is in 58-60 km from northern Kharkiv outskirts and in 40-45 km from the border area. Somebody say this is "Russian false flag attack". I doubt (if this wasn't Grad). Let they feel the same that feel citizens of Kharkiv almost each week two uears so far and citizens of other Ukrainian cities.
Pilots of Allied bombers without hesitattion were pushing buttons to drop heavy bombs of German cities. This is a war for annihilation. To hell hypocritic humanity. Russian cities have to look like Gaza after all these two years, maybe this washed remains of their brain back. No mercy
Belgorod several hours ago

Mmmm... Do you scream? Scared? Really? Not so joyfully now?
Russian MoD made official statement, claiming Belgorod was shelled with two "Vil'kha" missiles and MLRS "Vampire" rockets (eeee.... Vampire has 20 km of range, are you kidding?). As if most of missiles were intercepted by AD. So, according to Russian logic in deaths of Belgorod citizens local AD is guilted. If they didn't intercet missiles, its fragments would not be fall on civilains and just peacefully hit military objects! 

Anyway, after some time, the company commander appeared and announced "Snake get ready, you're going to evacuate." At that moment, I was naked from the waist, grabbed the rifle and jumped out after the commander into the yard. Of course, I did not know that "buses" no longer go to the village.
From the moment I arrived for dressing after the injury, about five hours had passed at that moment. For most of this time, I directly directed the battle based on my knowledge of the terrain and people. I am sure that I am not unique in this regard, but I have not yet met more such fools in the National Guard.
It was snowing lightly. A drone lit up overhead and a tank started shooting at us. Positioned across the street behind the house, a detachment of the 1st platoon, which came as reinforcements with the company commander, was sitting there. The battalion was completely involved in this meat grinder. I leaned against the wall and began to just howl from the cold. I asked for foil from the company commander's first aid kit. He didn't find it. Ryzyk, the squad commander, began to look in his first-aid kit - it was also empty. At the same time, a tank was constantly shooting at us. Running around, he found a foil from one of the fighters, in which I happily wrapped myself.
The company commander began to tell how to go to the evacuation: "You will go to the river. You will go over her. There will be a cemetery, you go further. There you will see a bridge. You pass There, across the field, there will be an evacuee waiting at the landing.”
I don't even speak anymore, I nod and start to leave. Passing by the cemetery, I meet Horko, who was leading another squad. He asks "-How is it here? "- bloody hell. I left, I don't have the strength to talk anymore. Sorry." In the background there was a crescendo of battle sounds. The battle raged around the entire perimeter of the village. I thought about going across the river a couple of times, but the ice didn't seem reliable, and I could see water in some places. The temperature rose abnormally after the frost.
When I reached the bridge, I almost screamed. It was two rails on which one board was lying, and the handrail was broken and it was impossible to lean on it. Stepping slowly, gathering with each step, I will be late on this wonderful trail. Somewhere in the middle, the rifle pulled me to the river, and there was a desire to just let it go, but in my head flashed either fall with the weapon, or get out.
Catching my balance in the middle of this bridge, I went on. The field was flat as a pancake and covered with snow. There was no sign of where to go, so I just walked at random, hoping that it was a bunch of trees and the ****ing line of trees that the company told me about.

When I arrived at the evacuation point, of course no one was waiting for me there. I was already tired of wondering at that moment, so after climbing into the ditch, I wrapped myself tighter in the foil and sat down, staring into the void. After some time, the Nine armored personnel carrier arrived, stopping two hundred meters away, and the fighters immediately began to fall out. Realizing that it's not my evak mobile,
i staggered towards the armored personnel carrier, trying to somehow wave my hand, because I no longer had the strength to shout anything. These were additional soldiers of the 9th company, compared to the company commander, he asked how I was, I just shook my head and climbed into the armored personnel carrier. The armored personnel carrier roared and flew away. The gunner carefully took the rifle from me, proving that I would not be allowed in the hospital with a weapon.
I grimaced at every bump, but in the middle, a puppy's joy was growing. LIVE. I ****ED OUT ALIVE. The armored personnel carrier flew to Vasylkivka and I fell out near the medical post. The driver-mechanic ran up to me and with a joyful cry "Snake, I'm so glad you're alive." He slapped me on the shot shoulder blade. Moaning dully and not responding, I went to the medical center at his apology. My participation in the battle for Soledar ended there.
Explanation to the map:
Ш - the area where the Archeologist's fighters are concentrated
Д - the district where the neighboring forces retreated and entrenched themselves
E - some district was also held by our forces
Г - point G
П - point P
Ж - point J
+ - medical center
КОНТРАТАКА КРАКЕНА - Kraken unit counterattack
ЕВАКУАЦІЙНИЙ ШЛЯХ - Evacuation path

Wine? I'll give you a Merlot from the Tessin (Ticino) but that is all.
The guns are nice, but you can't use them anywhere else, it seems.
The model that Switzerland runs on can only be run by one country in Europe, and only a small one. Copying that anywhere else would lead to total failure.
Also, the Swiss have shot themselves in the foot wrt their relationship with the EU lately. Let's see what will come of it.
Since we are already in the Alps: I'm wondering if there will be some pressure on Austria to join NATO. The power of the post WW2 agreements to stay neutral seems to wane.

Disappearing among the buildings, sitting down so that his back was covered by the building and placing his rifle in front of him, he began to wait. After some time, the guys came after me and took me to a nearby street where they set up a medical center. The doc (not the guy who gathered from the point without warning) kindly gave me a new tamponade, began to take painkillers, and put a bandage on top. At that moment, it became clear over the radio that the counterattack had failed. After being kicked, the boys from Kraken retreated.
At this time, position A began to be destroyed by direct fire. Two 300. After some time, one 200. a boy from Poltava was hit in the neck by a fragment. The boys asked to retreat.
The company commander yelled for them to mount lower. So that you understand, from point A down to point J there was just a slope, and the houses were already destroyed - without trenches, it was already real madness.
In the meantime, an armored personnel carrier "Nine" flew into Sil, it will be the last armored personnel carrier that will be able to ride here. Jackson tried to explain to the company commander that there was nothing there. Do not neglect personal reconnaissance. Maviks and maps do not help, if you have not walked in this area.
Realizing that a little more and it will most likely turn into an unorganized retreat. I took a deep breath, grimacing in pain. I took the walkie-talkie and told the company commander:
"There is no position there. It will not be possible to gain a foothold and hold on to that point. I take all the responsibility on myself, we align on J-P Street.” Came out on the walkie-talkie on Nine "Evacuation minus. I'm staying.”
 
Video - "It's my turn to be holed. This is Doc, he's stitching me up.."

I gathered my combat team and loaded them with ammunition, we are going to kill the enemy group in the area of the railroad tracks. We sneak along the street between points J and P. A man comes out of one of the houses, we briefly exchange words. He says that no one entered his street. Not bad. I say hide in the basement, because the business smells like ****. He hides back.
I send a couple of people to watch the railroad and send a couple forward to check the farthest house standing on a hill under the cover of a machine gun. The yard of the house is clean. We pull into the yard and begin to cover the sectors. The house is located on a hill and it controls the entrance to the railway line, as well as the entrance to the village. We sit down and start waiting.
Meanwhile, the Kraken's counterattack begins (Kraken - a separate intelligence and subversive unit of the Main Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine). An artillery duel is taking place all around. The machine gun begins to work at point B. At this moment I receive a report - Jurist 300 (wounded). Appointing East as senior on the point, taking Jackson and Foma with me and going to inspect point J to understand the situation and appoint a new senior. Between the two points there is a street and a small wasteland with dry grass. While we are moving, the mortars are pinpointing the point with the bastards to fire at them.
After the situation with Muraha (was wounded by friendly fire before that), I swear at the mortars:
" - But you won't hit where you need to. Here, everyone is standing too close together." They are offended.
"- Let's see. Make me take back my words"
They put a shell right in the house with the bastards.
" - Oh ****, I take my words back."
We start moving across the field. Bullets whistle when we run over. The territory is shot, but it doesn't matter. Jurist
got a lot of shrapnel on his legs and his second number too. Both were bandaged. The Professor (another conscript) was sitting next to them, he supports the boys with a calm voice, and at the base he was usually the most intimidating...
I am appointing an evacuee group of the healthiest guys from Poltava. I take PKM myself. The plan is as simple as three pennies. At first I run across the wasteland, I with a machine gun and two samurai who came with me. Then we shoot so intensively that none of the scumbags even stick their noses out. The evacuee team is running and we are "riding into the sunset". What could have gone wrong?
 
 

I wholeheartedly DISagree with most what you are saying.
Erdogan likes to play power politics, nationalist hubris but the Turkish economy is rather deeply intertwined with European Investment. 
It's the economy, stupid. Some extreme rightwing Austrians preferring macho style leadership over the 'woke' variant of the West doesn't mean they'd like to leave the EU and join the rubble union. 
I think Orban isn't much different, when he needs to choose between economy and his 'friend' Putin he will choose the EU Bn and the Nato security/armanents. They all know very well that if they leave the NATO/EU bloc and join Putin, they'll be served on a dinner plate whenever Russia's leader**** has the appetite. 
It's like Wilders from NL, he likes to encroach Russia's/Putin speech because it's popular among some circles and he's a populist; he can't get votes from people who aren't naive about geopolitics. But he's not seriously considering joining the 'Warsaw' pact 2.0. he knows very well it's political suicide.
Now the only countries playing with such thoughts imo are countries like S. Arabia. They have a lot of cash on hand and don't like our ways of telling them off for the way how they're running their country. They like Russian/Chinese attitude better, which don't have any problems taking their money/business without questions asked. 
Nobody knows how the world will look like in a hundred years and we won't be there to observe it, but for the foreseeable future I think even S. Arabia and the likes talk that talk because they feel it's in their interests and they will probably get something out of it, but I don't see them walk that walk the whole 9 yards.

I wholeheartedly DISagree with most what you are saying.
Erdogan likes to play power politics, nationalist hubris but the Turkish economy is rather deeply intertwined with European Investment. 
It's the economy, stupid. Some extreme rightwing Austrians preferring macho style leadership over the 'woke' variant of the West doesn't mean they'd like to leave the EU and join the rubble union. 
I think Orban isn't much different, when he needs to choose between economy and his 'friend' Putin he will choose the EU Bn and the Nato security/armanents. They all know very well that if they leave the NATO/EU bloc and join Putin, they'll be served on a dinner plate whenever Russia's leader**** has the appetite. 
It's like Wilders from NL, he likes to encroach Russia's/Putin speech because it's popular among some circles and he's a populist; he can't get votes from people who aren't naive about geopolitics. But he's not seriously considering joining the 'Warsaw' pact 2.0. he knows very well it's political suicide.
Now the only countries playing with such thoughts imo are countries like S. Arabia. They have a lot of cash on hand and don't like our ways of telling them off for the way how they're running their country. They like Russian/Chinese attitude better, which don't have any problems taking their money/business without questions asked. 
Nobody knows how the world will look like in a hundred years and we won't be there to observe it, but for the foreseeable future I think even S. Arabia and the likes talk that talk because they feel it's in their interests and they will probably get something out of it, but I don't see them walk that walk the whole 9 yards.

Putin is about to get elected again.  Democracy is alive and well in Russia.  😜

Significant Russian hybrid warfare in the Baltics, involving large Russian minority there is entirely possible, though, at least from point of view of Kremlin. There are some preliminary conditions for destabilization efforts there.
 
Also, still don't get what "dealing first with Ukraine" we discuss here actually means. It's largest European country, currently smeared in Russian (and own) blood up to the belt. Even if West make massive geopolitical and moral mistake of ditching them entirely and force to froze the conflict (hipothetically), Russia will need hundred of thousands of soldiers to keep an eye over their newly captured lands anyway. In fact they already recognized this need by their recent reforms of military districts. In that scenario, one of most positive for Kremlin, Ukraine still drains its military resources heavily and bounds most of effective muscovite force in the south. For years, decades perhaps they will be trapped with unresolved problem of smaller, but vengeful enemy watching for any sign of their weakness, like bloody honey badger half stuck with its teeth while gnawing your leg. Going head-on against NATO in such geopolitical conditions would be pure suicide.

Ukrainian MLRS "Vil'kha" have been struck Belogorod about hour or less ago. Russians claimed AD intercepted 20 missiles, but locals write after explosions the electricity and water were cut off in several districts. Reportedly there are wounded after impacts in residental areas.
 
 
 

Eric Hoffer put it best: 
"Propaganda doesn't deceive people; it merely helps them deceive themselves."

We are all over the map here.  So here is what I am hearing from you over the last few weeks:
- Ukraine is doomed.  It will lose this war and fall into a Russian orbit - with verve to fight for mother Russia apparently.  No matter what anyone does or how much support…this is a done deal.
- The West is a collection of cowards and appeasers because we are scared of Russia.  The fact that our partner (Ukraine) is so weak that a stiff wind will knock it over somehow plays into this…?  [gotta be honest this part makes no sense]
- Our “reluctance” to support Ukraine is a combination of fear and Ukrainian pre-programmed failure.  And this is a message to the world to stop trusting the West.
- This war has not affected Russia in any way, except making it stronger.  Sanctions are making Russia richer.  A brutal attritional war is making its military stronger.  And politically Russia is a nation of mindless drones who will follow Putin anywhere…forever.
- Russia will come out of this war, and inevitable Ukrainian loss, able to quickly invade Baltic or other NATO states.  We being the terrified western cowards who failed to support Ukraine - despite its clear destiny to fail - will dither and let NATO collapse by ignoring an Article 5 declaration.
And you have demonstrated a history of selectively picking “evidence” to support these positions even though you have also been caught out as either skewing evidence or outright pushing disinformation.  I think that covers it?
Ok, well…noted.  We will file that one away and come back to it.
 

Oh ya, the US is shaking so hard in its boots that Congress is galvanized...wait a minute....no they are not.  We just spent a page or two on how Russia may 1) fall apart gracefully like a dying swan and land gently in the arms of China or 2) fall apart fast like a flaming swan and land in a smoking heap into the arms of China or 3) Explode all over the place and leave little nuclear swanling bits for us to deal with.
None of this is "Oh dear, Russia rising."  No, that would have happened if Russia had taken Ukraine in two weeks and stared us down across the border to Poland.  Then the argument would have been whether or not to support a Ukrainian insurgency - but according to you Ukrainian will is so weak there would have been no point.
Instead we got this sh#tshow.  Russia is still big enough and irrational enough to cause a lot of @sspain, particularly as a strategic spoiler.  However, an invasion of a NATO state is not a realistic scenario right now, perhaps in an alternate timeline.  Russia does not have either the economic nor military means to take on an opponent 10 times larger than itself.  Hell it could not take on an opponent 1/4 the size of itself.
I am really not sure what game you are trying to play here but it wont work.  We support Ukraine because it is the right thing to do and aligns with our larger interest.  If Ukraine totally falls apart as you continue to argue, then we will deal with it.  We dropped an Iron Curtain before, we can do it again.  We got Sweden and Finland out of the deal, and Russia is a broken sword for a while yet - even with turncoat Ukrainians you describe [note: after Bucha and the other horrors, I would bet a whole lot against Ukraine cozying up to Russia for about a century or more...if ever].

Unconfirmed, but hope it's true. Fighterbomber is apparently still silent about it.
Russian Tu-22M3 bomber reportedly downed - Feasibility and Ukraine's capability | RBC-Ukraine

Because their sustainable military budget is maybe 1.5x the budget of the University of California.  Not the state of California, just the larger of the three state university systems.  
The Russian navy isn't doing particularly well against a country that has no navy.
The Russian army is stalled out with what it's currently holding against, as has been repeatedly pointed out, a country that was expected to last a week at most.  It's closing on 2 years, and they've pissed away the better part of 50 years of soviet production.
Russia has no tech industry and depends on China for any tech.  Russia is a tiny customer to China compared to the west.
The main thing that keeps Russia on the world stage is the leftover nukes from the USSR.  I don't think anybody really expects that Russia would use them unless directly attacked by an overwhelming force, but if Russia collapses in a chaotic way those nukes could get scattered to a lot of places that we would be a lot less happy to have them.
Russia needs to lose badly in Ukraine, but not collapse internally to the extent that nuclear materials get scattered around willy nilly.  The west needs to support Ukraine in winning for the same non-proliferation reasons that they want to avoid Russian collapse: we promised protection in return for giving up the legacy nukes.  Ukraine gained independence as the 3rd largest possessor of nuclear weapons on the planet and gave them up voluntarily.  If you still had them, none of this would be happening now, and every little state with nuclear aspirations is watching closely.  If we abandon you there will be a mad rush of nuclear proliferation among much less stable countries.

and that is highly unlikely.  The worst case event for Ukraine right now is a stalemate, not a collapse.
And no, it isn't a very real development.  It is just you are hyperventilating.  Calm down.

So all these UA soldiers armed by Russia are just gonna say, well okay you want us to attack Estonia?  Hundreds of thousands of them? Sure. 🤪
Can you send me some of whatever you are smoking?  I just signed up for this year's subscription of Dave's Picks Grateful dead releases and could use some to go with it.