Lethaface

To be honest I don't see Moldava or Georgia actually joining EU anytime soon. Ukraine might have more chance but they won't get a free pass. So think like 5-10 years, probably. There is of course ceremonial value in applying for membership and having that granted.

Imo it's quite simple why NATO doesn't want to get directly involved: it will mean total conventional escalation and the level of carnage, even if it doesn't go nuclear, will increase several times. Any leashes will come off and this time the war will be existential for Russia; so I'd expect better motivated troops plus zero regard for civilian casualties. That means 30mm HE autocannon clearing any groups of civilians blocking a road, carpet bombing, whatever is 'needed' to achieve short term goals. What would even be the objective of the war? Regime change? Invading Russia will definitely turn the conflict nuclear. And even if Nato troops are better trained, do they have the supplies / hardware to even last for a couple of weeks in battle? Many NATO countries probably have fewer tanks than Russia has lost in this war. NATO isn't prepared for a full spectrum war with Russia (although probably neither is Russia) and even if it will win it, it will bring more destruction with unclear political goals or outcome. And then there is the risk of nuclear escalation.

I don't 'get' bombing civilians either. But never give the enemy the victory of lowering yourself to their level (or beyond).

If someone meet a person standing behind MLRS which has just bombarded his home, dont directly think of Geneva conventions that's logical. Any downed pilot can die from 'gunfight', if he manages to survive the crash. Or he might die 'from crash' in papers while it was a 'gunfight'. Captured pilots (or artillery crew) is best for everyone though, imo.

Same here. Hope it will be short, but time will tell.

On the other side of the coin The resolve of the Ukrainian defense has reminded or even inspired quite some parts of the world what it looks like to successfully resist an oppressor. Things could have been much worse. I respect the mentality. Stay strong! And hope majority of Ukraine can stay on the good side of the coin. So far that seems to be the case, unlike the other side.

@kraze, here is example of the FACT that Russian people are human just like every other human. This man gave statement from heart (after few minutes of skittishness), or he is perhaps the best undiscovered actor in the universe.

Exactly, read those as well

To be frank I think that if Ukraine is able to reach ceasefire conditions, NATO is in sight. But NATO will not be 'on board' with offensive operations on territory that is lost before ceasefire. Just my opinion of reality, not necessarily what I 'wish' reality to be.

The difference is that this time he has somehow triggered a snare in 'the West' and short of declaring war 'we' have activated, not to say mobilized. When I look at how help is now organized around, even for 'refugees', I'm happy but also see some hypocrisy vs other refugees. Anyway, while many people in the West who have experienced the cold war probably are very reminiscent and activated for that reason, I have to admit that this war is also impacting my emotions especially because the intent of the war is to subjugate a people and deny them their own way of living. While this is unfortunately not unique in this world, this is a rather shocking development overall not in the least because the aggressor being Russia (with all her context). Over here there is quite some impact, personally spend the workday on 'shields up' double checking IT security measures and impact of recent proceedings; basically any supplier with ties to Russia / Belarus is a problem for anything public/semi-public.

On the encirclement of Kiev, it seems that the area around Hostomel keeps 'changing hands'. Seems that Ukrainian troops are utilizing a sort of mobile 'active defense' and keep hitting troops advancing into the area piecemeal. Now fortunately there is little intel on Ukrainian troop movements but I suspect they aren't digging in there but rather using ambush / anvil tactics and seem to have created a rather effective 'killzone'. In other words, the encirclement is looking like a pipe dream.

Exactly, don't stop your enemy from making mistakes.

Thanks, interesting threads.

agreed.

I was thinking more from internal security; if the best and loyal troops are tied up in an invasion in Ukraine, some other units / entities might get ideas. Especially during economic meltdown.

Well, I guess it makes sense keeping a strong force in reserve in the country, preferably the most loyal part. Might explain where the T-90s etc are.

Maybe there is Techno House nearby?

Interesting video of ex Belarussian VDV who calls current VDV not to join war (not sure if it's authentic, I was never in Belarussian VDV lol). PS the auto translation only worked for the first half, but it's also translated in the comments and that matched the auto translate.

* ICBM * F22 * B2 * Classified Lol

Just read that Netherlands will supply more aid to Ukraine: vehicles, rations, sleeping bags, laptops and protective clothing. The interesting part is that the ministry of Defense doesn't want to confirm what type of 'vehicles' will be delivered, but stressed that they can be delivered to Ukraine. Now I guess it will probably be some old trucks lol. But why the secrecy in that case?

so probably that's example of a rotten apple, or maybe it was once good apple but too long to close to rotten and it has spread.

Plenty of RPG around in Ukraine against which it would have been effective. It's not like the only weapons they have were from the west. I'd guess only a small fraction at start of war, although more and more is send.

Well, and it's all speculative, but perhaps the propaganda about poor Russians in Donbass worked for that scale of the conflict; 'only volunteer vacationers' etc. But now they noticed whole world is shocked, they try find other news and realize full scale war is going on and that can't be explained from the 'donbass' thing? There are probably millions of other reasons and each individual is separate. Maybe now they feel more 'safe' to say something, because they have less to lose?

Does it have to be A or B? How much do 'they' know about the war? How much has propaganda successfully implemented in their thinking?