poesel
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Posts posted by poesel
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43 minutes ago, Carolus said:
This is how to make the Russian supply situation even tighter - even though these attacks are still just needle pricks.
Russia would not be able to keep up with a sustained campaign against its energy infrastructure. Repairs for these things are really expensive and also dependant on foreign parts to a good degree (now if these sanctions were a bit tighter...)
This seems to be another example of the fixed wing bomber drone in action.
I'm really wondering how autonomous it is. Such a target seems to be comparably easy to detect by AI vision software (known location, unique shape, good contrast).
OTOH, I have no idea how much EW is active in Belgorod. So autonomy may not be necessary.
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10 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:
I think they can, but I'm thinking it's even more tilted towards creating conditions within Russia that even the Russians won't accept. And this is where I think the US and Europe should accept reality and work towards toppling Putin's regime using the full array of tools at its disposal. It's a huge risk, I know, but the devil we know seems to be bad enough to gamble on the devil we don't know. Especially because I think the only real solution to the threat of Russia is to have a much smaller Russia.
This, but that is missing the other half: making the Russians an offer for a Russia without Putin and his apparatus where the average Ivan has a better life than now.
Such an offer does not exist. And that is IMHO a severe mistake. The opposition in Russia, as small as it is, needs some hope. A Kindle which may spark a fire. Small chance of happening, but cheap to create.
Why this does not exist is pretty obvious. It would be quite a hard sell with Ukraine and probably other EECs. But even they need to think of how their relation with Russia after the war will look like. You cannot count on that Russia will look like Germany in 1815 after this war.
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An article that explains why Russia has so many volunteers and why their death is not a (perceived) problem for the Russian society.
TL;DR: the volunteers are often poor, drunkards & violent and their death is a net social plus for their mothers/wives due to the relative high pay and the bonus the relatives get on their death. The money and the new state of 'veteran' mother/wive allows them to climb the social ladder.
Article in German.
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2 hours ago, hcrof said:
Fast jets have guidance aids to tell the pilot exactly when and where to drop to hit a target, which is corrected for air speed, direction etc. Similarly those fancy new rifle sights will pull the trigger when you are on your target and compensate for bullet drop, wind etc.
I imagine it is not too hard to fix something similar to a slow moving drone so it autopilots the attack run for optimal accuracy. I am not saying the Ukrainians are actually using it, but it is possible.
From the drop time of about 6 seconds, I guess the release height was about 200 m. Combine that with the relative slow speed of the aircraft and you will get excellent results.
Since this is a non-kamikaze craft, you could put a bit more electronics in it than in a one-use drone. That means possibly more autonomy for that thing.
I'm a bit surprised we don't see more of those. They are cheaper to make than quadcopters, can fly longer and carry more load.
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1 hour ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:
I disagree, German Empire after its establishment in 1871 was throwing its weight around and tried to be recognised as a great power at the level somewhere between France and Great Britain.
My point. The German Empire wanted to be like the other empires - before WW1. Not much of a difference (broadly speaking). After WW1 - different beast.
To bring this back on topic: I guess Russia was never not an Empire or better: never was non-imperialistic. Let's see, if they get rid of it or not this time.
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1 hour ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:
I would argue that this ship has sailed. Russia is now in a way in the same position as Germany was after WW2, the enemy who had been defeated once and it was not enough.
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A nation, which thinks it ought to have a higher place in the world order is effectively enemy of everyone who is reasonably happy in the current set up - to state the obvious, look at Germany 1900-1945.
I guess (hope) you mean: ... after WW1.
And in the second paragraph: ...1918-1945. Before WW1 Germany was not so much different to the other nations in Europe wrt world order.
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8 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:
And tonight I read that it seems that the German taboo about seeing AfD votes has been decisively broken. Which means AfD might have more power than it used to and that is also not good for Ukraine.
3 hours ago, Butschi said:What do you mean by "taboo about seeing AfD votes"?
I guess he means that thing in Thuringia. That is a German state in former East-Germany. The state is ruled by a minority of left wing parties (3). The majority right wing consists of the conservative CDU and fascist AfD. Those parties do not work together, and the CDU has declared a 'firewall' towards the AfD and vowed to never work together with them.
Now, there has been a vote about a small tax reduction on buying real estate. This vote went through parliament with the votes of both right parties. So CDU has worked together with AfD to pass this law - a thing they explicitly said wasn't going to happen, and now the CDU is getting quite some flak for it.The influence on German foreign policy is zero. Since we have so many parties, a small minority of nut jobs cannot take the rest as hostage (at least not that easily). Also, the AfD has failed to participate in any state or federal government so far, and I don't see it happening.
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27 minutes ago, Carolus said:
Rheinmetall in Germany has usable capacity and expanded in anticipation of orders for 155mm, but the German government isn't ordering much because Germans have a new god, and that god is named "balanced budget" and they will worship that god no matter what crises rage outside the temple.
That is not a new god - it is one of old with a lot of power...
But the ministry of defense is currently a bit exempt from this due to special circumstances. It is now in the hands of bureaucracy. A force even greater than that of gods.
(man, I wish Neil Gaiman would write 'German Gods'. That would be so much not fun) -
13 minutes ago, Kraft said:
M777 with a blown barrel from use/bad ammo
This looks like a failure of the muzzle brake and the barrel is ok. But I'm no expert.
Obviously, you cannot tow the gun as easily anymore, but could it still be fired? -
1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:
Ironically, I'm listening to an audio book based on the premise that Iran was on the cusp of fielding autonomous nanobots designed to wipe out people based on DNA profile (e.g. Jews, Europeans, etc.). No longer the sort of thing that can be easily dismissed as paranoia or so far down the road that we don't need to worry about it.
If that is not 'Wool' (which has been made into the excellent TV series 'Silo') then I would like to know which.
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Wrt to Taurus & ATACMS:
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9 hours ago, Harmon Rabb said:
Germany Stalls Delivery of Long-Range Cruise Missiles to Ukraine (wsj.com)
I know someone else is going to post this eventually so I will just do it.
My main question would be is this decision set in stone or is Scholz waiting for the United States to officially announce ATACMS. Like he waited for the United States to announce sending Abrams tanks.
I would be interested in hearing from our German friends who understand German politics more..
(my bold)
The short answer is: probably yes. There are indeed some real reasons to not send Taurus, but in the end it is just stalling.Bavaria votes in ~2 weeks. Support for Ukraine is NOT a topic in this campaign. All main parties are for it. Still, sending Taurus is a sensitive issue for the voters of the chancellors party. So I guess, he tries to not do anything, at least until this vote is through.
If there was a vote in the parliament to send Taurus, yay would win. But it doesn't work like that. So the decision is not set in stone, it is just delayed. In this regard, the same as in the US.
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Japan is, as usually, ahead of the game:
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1 hour ago, FancyCat said:
Manpower is probably the most valuable resource among Western nations (cause I prefer not venturing into other countries beyond) and the most politically vulnerable to lose.
Yes, if you fight abroad for someone else or an idea.
No, if the Russians march into <your country>. Or anyone else, but in this context it's the Russians.
A misconception which was the downfall of many a dictator.
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It seems it was necessary to make this video which states the obvious. That frightens me a bit. But still a good thing.
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Kitty helping Kitty: Bergepanzer 3 rescues Leo 2 from a ditch:
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9 hours ago, Fenris said:
Looking to the board's hive mind for insights re cluster ammo...
Any way to change the spread on the cluster rounds - seems they spread a bit too wide most times or do the bomblets have enough shrapnel to cover the area inside the ring? Is the wide spread because they were designed to be fired en masse rather than quite accurate, single tube like we're seeing now?
Caveat: I don't _know_. But I guess this round has a fuze which triggers the separation process. Either time of flight or proximity. If that is adjustable, you could change the spread.
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15 hours ago, Haiduk said:
It's claimed 1A5DK. The same tank from previous photo, but in camo net.
I've read today Ukriane rejected to take 10 Leo 1A5 from Germany, becausae they were in very bad technical conditins. Also reportedly several Leo 1A5, which came to service already have broken down.
Yes, all of this happened and made some waves in the media here. It is quite a bit of an embarrassment but it looks like they forgot to train technicians and supply spare parts.
The 10 ‚new‘ tanks they wanted to deliver were used in the training of Ukrainian soldiers and are thus in need for maintenance. Same as the 10 already delivered which were obviously tested, too.
Now everyone is in a rush to fix this issue.
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4 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:
....Another thing to consider is that:
1. Subtractive (cutting) operations were absolutely revolutionised in recent decades
Did I miss something? What do you mean and how many decades?
5-axis milling is easily in hobbyist range. Machining tolerances are mostly a function of how good your linear bearings are and China has some decent ones. If you have the money you can mill turbine parts in your basement.
4 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:2. Pressing/forging - not so much
I know some people who would strongly argue that point.
4 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:[Even if] there's a Chinese multi-axis machine in a Russian military plant, it will be almost certainly equipped with Fanuc/Siemens controller.... It is necessary to make Western machine tool producers stop support and maintenance of their machines in Russia.
Unfortunately, once this kind of machine is set up it doesn‘t need much specialised maintenance. You get the consumables from everywhere including the tools and the control software runs well enough without need for an update.
TL;DR: the manufacturers of those machines cannot do much after it has been delivered.
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The German Bundeswehr plans to increase its numbers from 183.000 to 203.000 in 2030 (IIRC). Problem is, that not enough young people are interested in a career as soldier to reach those numbers. It is already reckoned that this target will be missed.
I guess other armies will or do face the same problem.Is unmanned a way out of this?
Just by the name of it you need less people because its not manned (d‘oh). But you still need people to operate it, but I have no idea if the total logistic chain for an UGV is more or less than a comparable tank.
Also, the job requirement for unmanned is more technical and less crawling through the mud. That might make it more attractive to prospects.So is unmanned a win-win for future armies?
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45 minutes ago, Centurian52 said:
Are those Leopards among the 135 Leopard 1s that Oryx lists as already pledged?
No. The 135 come from Danish, Belgian & German stock IIRC. Those Italian would be on top.
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15 minutes ago, Haiduk said:
Longer version
I wonder when we will see flamethrowers. Or is there a silent agreement on both sides not to use them?
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Please don‘t take this post as bait for country bashing. It is just facts.
Europe (EU & non-EU) has now twice the amount of (pledged!) support for Ukraine. Dark blue is short term, light blue long term support.
Took us a while but it is not that the US bears the brunt of the support alone anymore. Article in German.
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We never saw a video, or did we?
https://defence-blog.com/russia-announces-armata-tanks-pullback-from-ukraine/
Traps on mines:
https://twitter.com/Heroiam_Slava/status/1697994294534017302
and a nice joke:
How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?
in Combat Mission Black Sea
Posted
Since many of those who are dying now are from the 'undesirable' class which have a lower life expectancy. Over the long run, this may actually cause an increase in average lifespan.
Also, mostly men are dying and these have a shorter lifespan anyway.