poesel
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Posts posted by poesel
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5 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:
ISW has this commentary on a BILD article (yes, a pinch of salt!) reporting on Russia's goals for 2024:
BILD is as reliable as a news source as Fox News. They may be right that the sky is blue, and the grass is green, but I would still double-check.
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Short explanation why and how Orban did not block the start of the EU process for Ukraine: when the vote came, he left the room and the other 26 voted yes. So legally, everything is ok even though Orban didn't vote at all.
However, he has ample opportunity to block this process further down the line. But given the glacial speeds this process runs, he may be out of office by then. IIRC next vote is in 3 years in Hungary.
But there is another thing that has IMHO the biggest potential to delay Ukraine's EU membership: the EU will have to switch to a qualified majority vote for most of its process. Away from the unanimous vote style we have now. After the fun we had with Poland and have with Hungary, there won't be another two EEC countries joining the club while the rules are what they are now.
That reform will take a looooong time. Even though today is a happy day for Ukraine in this respect, I predict heavy frustration in the coming years. -
IFF systems for drones do not necessitate the drone to emit a constant signal.
A base station would emit a coded & encrypted signal with a request for identification. The drone would check the signal if it is valid and only then respond with the proper reaction.
So as long as you don't send the right signal, the drone is silent. -
1 hour ago, The_Capt said:
So how do we try and keep EM signature hidden?
Noise. Produce enough fake emissions to drown the real ones.
Or, since we are back at WWI anyway, lay cables.
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An autonomous drone doesn't have to be autonomous all the way. If an operator flies it towards a point of interest and then designates a target via the drone's sensors, then the drone can do the rest alone. Following a designated target is much easier than identifying one.
The designation only needs to be outside enemy EW.That is my guess for the next level of drones we will see in a few months.
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5 hours ago, Carolus said:
1) Germany is still providing weapon manufacturing capability to Russia
2) German industry has become the biggest exporters to Kyrgistan and Kazachstan and thus to Russia
3) Scholz own party is responsible for most of the parliamentary blockades of help to Ukraine and just recently one of the biggest supporters (Roth) of weapon deliveries and aid to Ukraine was voted out during a party summit. I
1) yes unfortunately, as many other states
2) Kazakhstan: biggest imports come from Russia & China (together 52%), Germany is 3rd with 4.5%, USA 4th at 3.8%
https://tradingeconomics.com/kazakhstan/imports-by-country
Kyrgyzstan: China & Russia (67%), Kazakhstan 3rd at 7.9%, USA 6th 2.4%, Germany 7th 1.7%
https://tradingeconomics.com/kyrgyzstan/imports-by-country
Numbers from '22. I don't think the numbers for '23 will change radically.3) Michael Roth is still MdB and head of the 'Auswärtiger Ausschuß'. What do you mean?
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Speech of Scholz on the party congress. I've linked to the essential Ukrainian part. You could scroll a bit backwards for more if you like.
Remember that this is the party which tried to be friends with Russia for 50 years.Speech in German, but automatic subtitles work very well.
TL;DR: Germany is prepared to support Ukraine for a long time (years...) and will step up its game should others slack off.
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If the Russians produce so many more drones than the Ukrainians, where are all those videos of Russian drones blowing up stuff? The Russians were never shy to show their achievements if they managed to have any.
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7 minutes ago, The_Capt said:
True but apparently “North Atlantic area” has Morocco covered. I mean if Romania got in, I think Morocco is safe.
Well, Romania managed to squeeze in through that "North America & Europe" thing.
But Georgia is in the US anyway and Morocco has this Greek guy lifting the world - that should suffice.
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6 minutes ago, The_Capt said:
Huh? Don’t really have a dog in this fight but Morocco is “North of the Tropic of Cancer”…no?
https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/official_texts_17120.htm
IANAL but Morocco is not an island:
"Article 6: ...or on the Islands under the jurisdiction of any of the Parties in the North Atlantic area north of the Tropic of Cancer;"But hey, I think they can amend that when they join.
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How to prepare an artillery position in frozen ground (video from last year):
and what happens if you don't:
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11 hours ago, The_Capt said:
For Asia, maybe. So “meh China”, except of course when we want to discuss security? So which is it? China is just another upstart power with no real attributes. Or China rise is a clear and present threat to western way of life and we need to invest trillions in defence in order to thwart them.
China was the worlds superpower from about 500 (when they took over from the Romans) to about 1750 where they lost it to England. The main reason they lost the spot was self-inflicted isolation. After 250 years of further 'mismanagement' they are a superpower again (not 'the', but 'a').
By its sheer size and cultural homogeneity, China is destined to be a superpower. That it was not during our lifetime is a historical aberration.
As to who is threatening whoms way of life, I would guess it is rather the West that is threatening China. Every Chinese I know (all of them living in China) would rather live in a western style China than in the current one, if something like that would be possible. They know it isn't so they are not speaking of that (loud).
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1 hour ago, Bulletpoint said:
Then France will be our new master.
Now I'm worried
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7 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:
For all the reasons mentioned, and more, the European Army is not only unlikely to happen IT SHOULDN'T happen. The last thing Europe needs is another set of complex treaty obligations when its previous ones are not being met.
There is a non-zero chance that DT will be your next president. And if this time there are no adults in the room, he might just do what he promised he would and leave NATO.
Then what, Europe?
In a perfect world, that scenario isn't going to happen, and we all work together in NATO. If not, we should have a plan B.
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3 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:
The more sensible thing for NATO to do, and I've been saying this for eons, is for all nations to come together and decide what a fully staffed force looks like.
...
An initiative to create a European Army is underway since 1950, which, depending on the specific proposal, would create something similar than yours - except sans NATO. Of course, this has created some criticism from (amongst others) Jens Stoltenberg (obviously) and DT (funnily, as usual).
The English article is a bit terse:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_armyThe German one explains it in all its glorious detail:
https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/EuropaarmeeWhy hasn't it come into existence? Well, following is a graphic that shows the existing military structures in Europe and I think, this is explanation enough:
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11 hours ago, Vet 0369 said:
How about we look at it on a contractual basis. Each member of NATO agreed to use a specific percentage of their budget (I don’t remember if it was GDP, Defense, or something else), and a number of NATO members reneged on that contractural agreement for decades.
The 2% are not a contractual agreement. In a 2014 meeting, NATO members agreed to move(!) toward the 2% by 2024 (for those below 2% of GDP).
Not a contract, not even about reaching the 2% - just moving towards it.
Btw, the 2% were 'invented' in 2002 when the Baltic States joined NATO, and the other members were afraid, they wouldn't invest enough.
For the record: I'm all for those 2%.
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4 hours ago, Zeleban said:
It may very well be. Western companies can no longer bear the losses caused by the lack of trade with Russia. I am confident that the trade aspirations of the West will be much faster and more efficient than the military ones, and soon after the capitulation of Ukraine the West will resume trade with Putin
Russia was on place 23 as a trade partner to Germany, snug between Brazil & India. If it weren't for the unholy dependency on Russian gas, we wouldn't have noticed if it had vanished from earth. That dependency is a thing of the past and will never come back, even if Russia would retreat tomorrow and hung up rainbow flags on the Kremlin.
Will Germany start to trade with Russia after this war is over, and all deeds are paid? Yes, of course. Does it matter? No, because the amount of money behind that effort is way too small for any political influence.
Btw, there will be WAY more money being made rebuilding Ukraine than trading with Russia. So much machinery & infrastructure has been destroyed and needs to be rebuilt. Germany will give vast amounts of debt guarantees, so Ukrainian companies can buy from German companies all the stuff they need to rebuild. That is where the money will be made. There's probably quite some bankers who are already salivating about this.
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Question: after the Kakhovka dam was blown up, there was a lot of talk about the now empty reservoir becoming passable. At least now with frozen ground it should really be passable. There is of course still a river, but I have heard nothing from that front.
Why?
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16 hours ago, Vet 0369 said:
But, but, but, …. If Germany clamps down on these sales, some other manufacturer, in some other country, will make all that money! We can’t allow that to happen.
Which would probably be the US which traded $109m until Sep 2023 up from $61m in '22 up from $34m in '21. So the US tripled its trade since the war started.
But, but, but, ... things are more complicated than a single number.
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3 hours ago, Holien said:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-67427422
Pretty sad and adds weight to how the good get taken down by a nasty minority backed up by institutions that have been subverted.
The parallels with Nazi Germany and other dictatorships is clear.
Russians will keep dying in Ukraine...
Unfortunately, these systems tend to work right to the end. The Gestapo was operational in the Third Reich in '45, the Stasi worked in East Germany until the wall fell, and I guess that is true for other dictatorships. Avery useful and cheap tool for every oppressive regime and no sign of its upcoming demise.
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3 hours ago, The_Capt said:
Won’t that create an environment even more dangerous for people? I mean if one can 3-D print a cheap smart missile that can find, track and hit a small UAS through the trees, why would I point it at a UAS and not troops and vehicles?
Detecting something looking up into the sky is probably much easier than looking down or across the ground. There are also fewer obstacles in the sky, your missile has to avoid.
The amount of explosives you need to kill a UAS is much lower than what you need against vehicles or probably even troops. I guess you would also have a different type of explosion.
If this weapon was available now, both sides would use it, as there is nothing else available against the small copters. In the next war - who knows?
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1 minute ago, Battlefront.com said:
Yes, however some companies are more concerned about their public image and their relationship with their customers than others.
Yes, but only if your company is marketing something for public consumption. Companies like GfM couldn't care less what the public thinks about them because they are selling a very specific product to a niche market. If you need that kind of machine, you buy it. There is no public consumer who could boycott them, no bad PR would hurt their sales.
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A few pages back we discussed anti-drone measures. This is a short video of some students (I think) from Nanjing university who build a rocket with a visual sensor.
This is not military grade and misses some parts and functions. But if some students can build such a thing, the industry can, too.I think this will be the last war where small drones can roam as freely as they do here. In future wars, it will be much more dangerous for them.
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4 hours ago, kimbosbread said:
How precision tools sent to Russia aren’t sabotaged properly, I don’t understand. I realize the French and Austrian industry totally loves Russia, but still…
Because neither France nor Austria are at war with Russia.
Morale and business do not mix. As long as it's legal, they will sell it. If it's illegal, some will stop, and some will raise the price. That is not nation specific. But some nations have harsher measures which will disincline more businessmen to try to make a profit than others.
How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?
in Combat Mission Black Sea
Posted
Isn't that a nice idea? Very helpful of the Russians.
Krynky, Kherson region. Kontakt-1 on the engine compartment of the Russian tank