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poesel

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Posts posted by poesel

  1. 3 hours ago, Butschi said:

    n addition, repair attempts by the Ukrainian army had led to further damage to the tanks. The extent to which this could be prevented through better training of mechanics or the provision of manuals, or whether repairs could be carried out in Ukraine, should be examined.

    I'd like to point out that this is probably a case of lost in translation.

    I'm pretty sure that they would have received a manual ('Handbuch'). A 'Anleitung' is usually something like a step-by-step instruction. More suitable for field repairs than a thick manual.

  2. 10 minutes ago, keas66 said:

    The IDF is pretty much doing what it likes right now - do you care much ?  - and you expect the West to condemn some minor revenge attacks  by Ukraine on Russia ? Unless said attacks threaten somehow the stability of the  relationship between the West and  Russia/China  I can't see anyone caring much at all . Not sure why some folks on this board think the Rubicon has somehow been crossed .

    I think you misunderstood me. I was not talking about my opinion (for the record: all for it) but the public opinion.

    A year ago, the German public would have gone nuts about a missile attack of Ukraine on a Russian city. 'Escalation!', 'WW3 imminent!', 'Don't poke the bear!' etc...
    There were some raised eyebrows when Ukraine did those little drone attacks. And now missiles, and the reaction is: nothing.

    So I wanted to hear about the reaction in other countries.

    If true, I think this is a big change. Ukraine can now attack into Russia. And by 'can', I mean politically. Without fear of backlash for killing civilians (which will inevitably happen).
    It doesn't matter that Ukraine neither can nor wants to send 100 missiles to Russia. The fact that they can retaliate on Russian soil with rockets without loosing western support is the change.

  3. Let's just assume that Ukraine bombed Belgorod and killed civilians as a by product. That was what has been reported by the mass media here.

    The reaction (here): nothing.

    Is that the same everywhere? I am really surprised that the public takes such an attack with a shrug. It is not the first time Ukraine attacked Russia directly but not with this dimension.

    IMO, Ukraine just learned that it is ok with the west to retaliate to Russia in kind (as long as no western weapons are used). That would change the character of this war.

  4. 9 hours ago, kimbosbread said:

    Time to submit to Swiss hegemony, methinks. Switzerland makes better planes, guns, wine, cheese and pretty much everything else compared to Germany.

    EDIT: I bet the Swiss could put together nuclear weapons in half the time the Germans could.

    Wine? I'll give you a Merlot from the Tessin (Ticino) but that is all.

    The guns are nice, but you can't use them anywhere else, it seems.

    The model that Switzerland runs on can only be run by one country in Europe, and only a small one. Copying that anywhere else would lead to total failure.
    Also, the Swiss have shot themselves in the foot wrt their relationship with the EU lately. Let's see what will come of it.

    Since we are already in the Alps: I'm wondering if there will be some pressure on Austria to join NATO. The power of the post WW2 agreements to stay neutral seems to wane.

  5. There had been some discussions in the papers here if Germany should have its own nukes. The question was what to do if the US withdraws its protection. The French don't want to share. I don't know what the UK's policy would be in that case. That leaves the rest of Europe without nuclear protection.
    That discussion didn't create much political traction that I'm aware of. But that the question was even asked is really something new.

  6. 27 minutes ago, OBJ said:

    Hmmm, I thought most folks here agreed a coup that deposed Putin would end up worse for everyone, Russians, Ukrainians, Europeans, RoW? Did I misunderstand that the people in Russia that could pull off a coup would be worse than Putin in every way meaningful to everyone not already aligned with Russia?

    Worst case scenario is that Russia falls apart, and the nukes end up in the hand of criminals (who know how to use them).

    Apart from that, any coup would weaken Russia in some way, even if not successful (see Prig). Which would be a good thing.

    A group of people who could pull it off and have a reason to do so do not currently exist in Russia. If they existed, we would have a coup. :)

  7. 1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

    Oh, well let me shut that down right away then.  There is no way to conduct a breach without securing the minefield first. 

    ...

    Yeah, wrong use of military terminology from my side. I was just talking about the act of removing the mines. Not about all the rest that is necessary for the actual breaching.

    About the width of the cleared lane: IIRC it was supposed to be 8m or not? Even if fuzzy on the sides, that is more than two Leo 2s abreast.

  8. 3 hours ago, The_Capt said:

    ...

    Seriously, so if I am understanding this right, using 10m sections would require 50 flights by a heavy drone for each charge. 

    (this assumes 500m of breach) Or one flight with 50 drones. Or create a drone with more lift and have fewer flights.

    3 hours ago, The_Capt said:

    I am still not sure what the detonation plan is here.  Light them off one at a time after they are dropped?  Or all at once?  One at a time is going to pretty visible as we are talking about 50 individual explosions.  All at one is likely better, particularly if you lay them at night/under smoke, but then you get into how does one simultaneously detonate 50 x 10m charges at the exact same time?  Any delays could cause blow aways and gaps in the lane.

    Well, depends on what you need. Impact fuze, pre-determined time or radio. Neither time nor radio should create any delays.

    3 hours ago, The_Capt said:

    And you still need heavy vehicle based proving once the breach is in regardless.  Explosives are not 100%. And the risk is obvious, the lead vehicle gets taken out and all the rest now either try and turn around or have to go around into uncleared space.  So a proving system is a must and right now those are mine rollers.

    Normally, yes. But this is a war. I would run two BMP-1s left lane, right lane over the breach. If one gets blown up, you still have the other side (hopefully). That is a risk, of course.

    3 hours ago, The_Capt said:

    If one can actually see each individual mine then a UGV dropping small shaped charges with simultaneous detonation is a much better way to go.  Even if you get a mis-time the odds will be that they won’t blow away the next charges.  And even then one will need to use rollers to prove..and we are back to a vehicle.

    The UGV way would be way slower, but you would get more mines. With GPR you are pretty sure you find any mine you drive across. Not sure if this is suitable for breaching. It is more like eroding the minefield.

    3 hours ago, The_Capt said:

    To be honest I am a lot less worried on how to breach the minefield - there are plenty of good systems for this.  The major problem is how to secure/isolate the minefield so the breach can happen.

    The whole point of this discussion is to talk about a method of breaching a minefield without having to secure it first. Because that has proven difficult.

    It gets a lot easier if there is no minefield.

  9. 2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

    A zillion pages (= a couple of weeks) ago I proposed that a UGV or UAV fly with a cable instead of the full line charge.  Then, when at its destination, activate a winch to reel a line charge to it.  That fixes the problem of the massive cumulative weight of dragging the whole line charge while also trying to move the UV.

    Ok, let's assume 100m of breaching. At about 7,5kg/m (see above) we are talking about 750kg for the weight of the line. Since you are dragging it, friction comes into play, so we double that number to 1,5t. Then the line has to be strong enough to pull itself, add weight. It has to structurally survive the whole dragging process (the C4 and the ignition mechanism have to stay in place and operable) - add weight. Let's say the whole thing equals to a pulling weight of about 2t.

    Now you need a winch that can pull 2t. But unless you pull that apparatus across a parking lot, there will be snags. They only way to unclog them is to pull harder. So add 50% for safety. Just found a 6t electrical winch on Amazon. Comes with a remote, that's nice. :) It weighs about 30kg. It pulls with 4,5kW at 5m/min. To run the winch for 20 minutes (100m / 5m/min) you need a battery with 2kWh. Another 20kg.

    So the winch assembly is about 50kg that you need to bring to the other side of the minefield and deploy it there. By deploy, I mean you need it to fix it to the ground to withstand at least 3t of pulling force (or 30kN for those who care).
    I frankly have no idea how to pull that off apart from sending a human to do it. Which is a showstopper here.

     

    I'd rather fly in 10m pieces one at a time.

    1 hour ago, hcrof said:

    ... isn't a line charge just dumb mass? You don't need hundreds of kg of explosives if you drop a small charge on every mine individually and that means you can clear a wider path with fewer assets. ...

    I proposed exactly that a few pages ago :)

     

  10. 9 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

    Just a curiosity: somebody already made a simulator  of FPV drone, set in current war. From keyboard straight into trenches...

    https://store.steampowered.com/app/2707940/FPV_Kamikaze_Drone/

    There is this review from a guy who seems to very exactly know the stuff he needs from the game:

    https://steamcommunity.com/id/iserediuk/recommended/2707940/

    There is a lot on the day-to-day drone operation in that comment.
    I find it interesting that he gives a 1 in 15 chance for a drone to be shot down by a soldier on the ground. That is more likely than what we thought, I think.

  11. 9 hours ago, The_Capt said:

    I am not sure the current rocket laying system is a problem.  The problem seems to be minefield depth.  MICLIC are only about 100m long and RA minefields are around 500m.  ...

    And of course they have developed mine fuses to counter the effects.

    Multiple lanes are of course a good idea but that is a lot of systems as there are multiple minefield belts.  So again, part of an overall larger system and operation, not a silver bullet. 

    The problem of the rocket laying system is its size. It's a tank or tank sized. And it is a single piece of expensive equipment that you probably don't have that many of. Those systems get killed fast if they trundle slowly around in the open.

    If you have drones doing the mine clearing (=placing the C4), then you have small & cheap pieces of equipment you can have lots of. And you have variable clearing depth as well.

    Let's assume such a drone system costs 10k (I'm talking about that plywood fixed wing thing). A mine clearing tank costs 5m (also a guess). You could have 500 drones for a price of one tank, and those drones could clear a 5 km(!) path through mines, even if every single one of them would be lost after one use.

     

    Of course, this is not the Wunderwaffe that fixes mines & breaching alone. But to think of the possibilities of what drones could do at an industrial scale is... interesting. Lots of current weapon systems are being made obsolete in a very short time. I'm not sure if that is with precedent. If I only knew any military historians, I could ask...

  12. 36 minutes ago, OBJ said:

    ...

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M58_MICLIC

    The line charge is 350 feet (107 meters) long and contains 5 pounds (2.27 kg) per linear foot of C-4 explosive. This line charge is supposed to be effective against conventionally fused land mines and supposed to clear a lane 8m wide. 

    The explosives for a line this length weigh 1,750 lbs, just the explosives, not sure about the 'line container'. The greatest lift I've seen for 'heavy' drones is 414 lbs, so if that's a practical max we'd need to reduce line length assuming lifting drones at both ends.

    ...

    Hmm, laying MICLICs via drone sounds like a good idea. Problem is weight. Taking above figures and converting them into sensible units ( :D ) gives about 7.5 kg/m of C4. Let's say 10. The R18 drone carries 5kg. So two of them may carry 1-2 m of mine clearing. That is not much.
    Fixed wings might be better here. A few pages back we had that plywood AQ-400 drones that could carry 42kg over 750km. Let's just use these numbers. It's fair to assume a combo of one motored, and one glider drone could carry 100kg. That's 10+ m of MICLIC.

    So 10 of these replace one M58 system (and it is scalable in length in both directions). You don't need 5t of trailer or 15t of UR-77.

    Downsides are weather dependency, and it is harder to aim. But it is comparably cheap and reusable (apart from the C4...).

    Best thing is, that it is all available tech. Plywood RC planes and gliders plus C4. I bet there is already somebody trying this in some Ukrainian cellar.

  13. There were questions about how to shield drones vs EMP. This can be achieved by putting the electronics of a drone into a Faraday cage. This cage must be built of conductive materials like aluminum or copper. The holes in the cage must be <10% of the wavelength you want to shield against. Let's assume 5 GHz and you are at 60 mm wavelength, so the holes should be less than 6 mm or smaller (if any).

    The thickness of the cage is not that important. 1mm alu sheet metal has saved people from lightning. But conductivity is. Gold foil would be best, but copper or alu will do.

    One problem is that you obviously don't want to put your antenna inside the cage, so that's a hole. The power supply for the motors will also create holes. And you need to make sure that you don't catch a spike through the antenna itself.

    This is doable with a bit of effort. I haven't seen anyone doing it for the cheapo quads I guess it is not worth it (yet). Military drones will have that and probably a lot more.

  14. This is the last war where mines play a significant role.

    Now that I have your attention, I'll explain why.
    Mines are detectable. Either visually or by radar (GPR - ground penetration radar).

    Visual
    AI is insanely good at visual pattern recognition. To cut it short: if a human can see it, AI will, too. And AI doesn't tire and can do this stuff as long as the batteries hold.

    Radar
    I'm not an EE, but this link was the first that came up after searching for 'gpr radar diy':
    https://gpradar.eu/onewebmedia/TU1208_GPRforeducationaluse_November2017_FerraraChizhPietrelli.pdf
    That is something any hobbyist can put together for <1000€

    Put a camera and the GPR on a small tracked UGV. Add a dispenser for small shaped charges. Run it over the minefield and drop a charge on every mine found. Explode charge. Repeat.

    Sure, doesn't work on any terrain. Field of sunflowers - nope. But anything that is reasonably flat should be good.
    Sure, those things need cover. But they are small and of low height. Hard to hit. Anyone shooting at this will expose himself. Any precision you throw at it is most likely more expensive than the UGV.

    Unless you have an UGV that can take out these things. And if you have armed UGVs, then mines won't work anyway. And then no one will use mines.

     

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