dan/california

Allow me to rephrase a little bit, If I was the Iranian government, and I wanted to advance my interests by provoking Israel into flattening Gaza. I really think this thing has a second stage, we should assume it does until proven otherwise.

I am not even saying they could deliver an indigenously produced weapon by any means except a suicide bomber in a plane or truck. I am saying that if I was was the Iranian government, and I wanted to do something besides getting Gaza turned into a parking lot, this is the moment I would do a nuclear test. We have just had a brutal lesson that our intelligence is not as good as we think it is. The odds the Iranians have enough fissile material for a couple of tests at least seems rather high. And yes withdrawing from the JCPOA was incredibly stupid, but Trump did it. I think there is a pretty direct line from that decision to the current disaster in Gaza. The assumption that Russia would never , EVER hand out a few nukes was a really good one two years ago. I think it is a much less valid assumption now. We still don't REALLY understand the planning and supplying of this operation. The fact that we don't understand it, and had ZERO warning ought make us question a very great many assumptions. Edit: and I think the Iranians doing a test would probably get Gaza turned into a parking lot much faster than it already is. But one assumption I think we can make with very high reliability is that the the Iranians care any more about what happens to thePalestinians than Putin cares for the lives of mobiks from anywhere outside of Moscow and St Petersburg. Actually they probably care less, if that is even possible.

Well that will bring the kettle up to a boil nicely.

Editorial from a very conservative guy I usually don't like much fully supporting Ukraine,

Zelensky's statement on the situation in Israel was perfect

Bleep it, I resemble that remark. I just can't shake the feeling that this is a re-run of August 1914. That we are somewhere past the actual assassination of the Grand Duke, but before The Austrians gave the Serbs a demarche they new would be rejected. Really hoping I am wrong.

Maybe it as simple as hoping Mideast chaos bumps the oil price, which bumps Trump's chances?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joint_Precision_Airdrop_System https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joint_Precision_Airdrop_System#/media/File:JPADS_Illustration.png The USAF aready has a gps guided parachute, it isn't a whole lot of engieering to get the rest of the way if somebody has not already done it. I have doubts about the utility outside of niche applications. A successful surprise attack would be exhibit one, as demonstrated unfortunately. Edit: although if the entire thing was plastic with a super low radar signature...

Okay, what I am about to say is speculative, i won't be offended if you tell me I am wrong or worse. What are the odds the Saudi's have decide to take whatever security guarantee the Chinese are offering instead of the one they have been negotiating with the U.S.? What if the Iranians planned this as a prelude to doing a nuclear test? They could pronounce Gaza to be under their Umbrella/Protection. Further out on a limb... What are the odds that Hamas attack presages a much wider attack on not just Israel but the entire U.S. position in the Middle East? It is possible that I have simply lost my marbles, but this thing is to well planned and executed to just be an attempt to get the Israelis to take a political hit from leveling Gaza. It seems an awfully indirect way to decrease the ammo available to Ukraine, doubly so since The Israelis can handle Gaza by themselves. Have the Russians GIVEN Iran enough nukes to really make them a nuclear power in the hope the resulting chaos lets them get something out of Ukraine? There is another shoe to drop here, maybe a truckload of shoes. Maybe Putin thinks mideast chaos will send the price of oil through the roof, and that will reelect Trump. Edit: Maybe it as simple as bumping the price of oil, Putin makes more money, and increases trumps chances at the same time. That still plays with everything else in the post though.

Some more thoughts about how this music festival slaughter is going to take the brakes completely off the Israeli response. Elite liberal Israelis are the people who might have attempted some level of restraint in the war against Gaza. It was these peoples children who were slaughtered, literally while they were just getting stoned and having a good time. Edit: And many of them were taken hostage.

Russia is fast running out of any other kind, of course invading Ukraine in the first place was whatever is beyond utterly reckless. I think the thread has pretty clearly established they are not exactly strategic geniuses either. Putin did invite the Hamas leadership for a wine and dine in Moscow a year or so ago. The odds aren't zero.

We need to start building ammo plants like there is a war on, or we are going to be very, VERY sorry. We have had eighteen months of warning, and mostly wasted it.

Azerbaijan owes Israel a rather large debt as well.

Israel, vs Hamas, Hezbollah, Syria and Iran, is the short list. I can easily envision a much longer one.

Edit: not displaying right: 250 murdered at the music festival, plus hostages. Hamas is trying to outdo the Russian Army. I simply can't imagine how Israel is going to respond to this. Edit: How does this NOT lead to a general mideast war? Edit: AMMO PLANTS, we need to build more ammo plants

Germany was throwing its weight around, and there was high and rising anxiety about a war breaking out. I would argue, though that Germany had not decided to kick over the table and send the entire twentieth century off the rails until dominoes fell in the Balkans in the worst possible way. The echoes of the Grand Dukes driver taking a wrong turn simply beggar the imagination.

Polling generally is more or less broken. The response rate is so slow the statistical violence performed on the raw data makes it almost meaningless. An 80 twenty result with a LARGE sample size might mean something, anything less thn that is just cheap filler for content generation.

A long thread that lays out the position of the British Labor Party on the Israel/Hamas War, and the thrust of their foreign policy generally. Given that Labor seems nearly certain to win the next British election this matters. On the whole I would say they have laid out about as forceful, and positive policy framework as could be hoped for from a Labor government. Short version, The rules based order is the foundation of prosperity, and it is worth fighting for. I think this is positive for Ukraine, and not overly conciliatory towards the Palestinians, which was not a given from the British labor party.

They came on in the same old way, and we sent them back in the same old way." The Duke of Wellingtons tactical summary would seem to apply here.

Yes, this! Ukraine has a golden opportunity to seize the diplomatic/and political high ground by being far more generous to Israel, than Israel has been to Ukraine.

Enough money to get Ukraine through the U.S.Presidential Election.

This is the real question. Is this just an unfortunately successful spasm of suicidal violence by Hamas, or the start of a much wider war that pulls in players from Turkey, To Egypt To Azerbaijan? We may REALLY regret the last eighteen months of screwing around when we should have been ramping up the production of pretty much every kind of ammo there is like we meant it.

This definitely the best news I have heard this week, maybe this month. Nowhere near done, but at least it is proof the administration is thinking straight.

Most of them are both.

American news media is doing a crap job as usual https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/10/07/naked-israeli-woman-paraded-jeering-hamas-fighters/?li_source=LI&li_medium=liftigniter-rhr Hamas is acting like the Russian Army, but unless I missed something they are not a major nuclear power. They have a very good chance of getting to pay their bill in full.