dan/california

The problem with Gaza is that it was allowed to exist. And their is a strong parallel with the L/DPR actually, they were both at best semi governed spaces where the worst people on earth were allowed free reign. This happened because some of the people who should have known better found it convenient, and a lot more of them were just lazy and hoped to keep kicking the can down the road. I don't know what the plan will be for Gaza going forward, but the old plan is dead and buried.

Going to be more like an anvil actually...

The faster they smash their way through Gaza the shorter their vulnerability period to full bore attack in the North. They don't want to fight Hezbollah if they don't have to, but if they do they would really like to be queed up and ready when that second balloon drops.

Almost exactly the same rake as Steve, but with a pretty good map.

I simply don't see how the Northern front doesn't kick off. My prediction is that the IDF is about assault Gaza like its hair is on fire, so that the mechanized forces currently deploying there can shift North ASAP.

https://www.threads.net/@maks_23_ua/post/CyTWwyVqbVp Some interesting footage from the fixed wing drone bomber the Ukrainians have started using. Thee feed they are showing from the drone looks straight down, and records the actual impact. Either their is another camera for targeting or it is pure GPS.

Whatever else the Russian MOD is thinking, my money is on this for the primary motivation. It is very unfortunate that the Lancets keep getting better, it is also very noteworthy that Ukraine has apparently been able to use an airfield a ~120 kilometers from the front for the last eighteen months. The level of failure that implies for the Russian military is just staggering.

Hamas decided to lose the propaganda war preemptively. They will regret that.

Well, it was quick...

Israelis are just going through their master target list for the Gaza strip as fas as they can arm planes.

Well lets put it this way. The Russians have been bleeding close to 500 casualties a day 595 days longer than they had planned on. That is not exactly a huge military success.

The question is do they have a choice? They might want to have real serious discussion about exactly what the mission of troops is now instead of later.

It must really be good for troops morale to fight past five or ten blown up wrecks from their own sides previous attempts. It makes it really clear that this a long road to nowhere, and you get to pay by the inch. Of course Russian morale is becoming one of the worlds great mysteries...

Contrary to its title most of this podcast is about Jake Sullivan and with the author of this article. If want to understand why we have have never quite given Ukraine enough to win, this is the article. I was struck by the fact that the National Security Adviser should be required to be a military veteran. You have to have some understanding that doing something right now is frequently better than doing something perfect next week. Sullivan seems a little weak on that.

Making Moscow pay for the war it started would be good.

Forum software was fighting me about getting any writing in the post above, sorry Hamas seems convinced achieving the nearly impossible bar of being worse than the Russian army will accomplish. something. I suspect most of the population of Gaza is going to get to ponder that what tHamas achieved was getting them dumped in the Egyptian desert with a leaky tent.

Some further thoughts on the state of Ukrainian drone development. The airfield attack a month or so ago that inspired the Russians to turn all of their strategic bombers in to dumps for worn out tires also used an apparently effective image recognition top attack. Those drones very clearly were able to recognize the image of the plane and detonate directly over them. the working assumption though has been that the target image was preloaded, and it would have been more or less impossible to adjust it in real time. The clip we have just seen though, is a randomly clumped up infantry squad, hiding behind a randomly pre-wrecked armored vehicle. This implies the Ukrainians can now set/adjust/pass thru the targeting information for a level flight top attack in real time. one very interesting question is did the ydo this with image recognition or GPS coordinates. It is an impressive development regardless, if they can do it at scale. But if they can do real time image pass thru they may be making real progress towards a true drone swarm, where you pick a one kilometer grid square and tell ten, or twenty, or a hundred drones that you would like everything hostile in it too die.

Hopefully we can avoid a SECOND surprise attack.

By far the most interesting bit about the quality of newly produced 152 ammunition. He states there is a 2.5 kilo weight difference between new production shells in the sane batch. That sends the Russians already bad CEP right off a cliff. This is the first really clear evidence of an FPV drone with a purpose built warhead , and I'm guessing some level AI targeting. I think the lag in the video feed would make that level of accuracy possible. If the Ukrainians have these in quantity it would be significant improvement.

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-presidents-inbox/id1172546141?i=1000630880366 Eliot Abrams and Steven Cook discussing the Israeli/Hamas War(tm). There is lot of stuff we have gone over, and one potential blockbuster. One of them says there is a video, of one of the atrocities and taken by Hamas, in which he claims one of the terrorists is speaking Farsi. I haven't had time to hunt the video down, but both of these guys a very senior former U.S. government officials. Neither of them has any reputation for being crazy that I am aware of. Proof of one IRGC member participating in this mass atrocity would be significant. Actually it would probably be seismic.

A Marine Corps officer discussing air defense lessons from Ukraine, and how they apply to both doctrine and procurement.

The reconstruction has a high potential for strong feedback loops, either positive or negative. If it old companies come roaring back to life, new ones are being founded left and right, and the feeling takes hold that Ukraine is biggest opportunity zone in Eurasia? Then almost all of the refugees will return, and hopefully Ukraines rise will resemble South Korea's. It can very much NOT go that way, it is going to require an enormous amount money, skillful management, prolonged Western attention, and a reasonably stable peace. The upside is there though.