dan/california

At some point you have to wonder if your Duma seat includes a weekly allotment of the special Columbian marching powder along with the case of vodka. I mean complete poly substance intoxication is the least bad reason for what some of these people are spouting And this would be in water that will just kill you in ~15 minutes.

Every time some idiot in the Duma starts screaming about Alaska some random ship in the Russian Navy needs to have a smoking problem. The kind of smoking problem where it lifts 15 feet out of the water, breaks in half amidships, and then sinks with all hands inn the course of about 90 seconds. I mean Russian cigarettes are dangerous after all.

Best maps out there.

I used to think that my inability to make any sense of the structure of the Russian military was just me. I assumed the the Russians understood this whole coastal, guards, tanks commanded by fleets thing. But after watching them try to fight a war it is now clear the Russians don't understand it either. Brilliant effort though Haiduk.

I think there are quite a few rather important details hiding in the - . About 27 different ways to get messily dead if things don't work out just so come to mind. Then there are the BAD options, where you really, really, wish one of those 27 had happened. But then again staying in a Russian prison is not a great plan either. I think a wise man once said "I wouldn't start from here."

it was in the NYT too. Their version had all sorts of pleasant details, and implied people were actually being severely threatened to sign up. They also said they wouldn't bother to return your corpse if you died. Seemed like an offer you couldn't refuse, even though you REALLY wanted too.

We need to pursue that more...

Many thanks for the update. Any idea why the bridge right behind Kherson is still up? I really think it shouldn't be. And yes I am aware my opinion counts for less than a feather, but still...

"On the open steppes of Eastern Europe or comparable desert terrain, mounted infantry has similar operational mobility to armor but must dismount to fight. On foot, an infantryman is capable of seizing a building or manning a trench but is nowhere near as tactically speedy or powerful as a main battle tank. In a featureless battlefield bereft of infantry’s usual choices for cover, tanks’ speed and protection will become more critical, and battles will become more fluid." Above is a quote from the cube division article. I would say that the results in Ukraine have pretty been 100% the other way. Modern ATGMs and ISR have resulted in a nearly static battlefield most of the time.

I am dying to know what is closer to the bottom of the barrel? The truck,? Or the troops inside it?

There are some great scenarios to be made about this fight when and if we ever get any details. Edit: And getting the Russians to attack at the absolute far end of their logistical system is a great way to thin them out. Also, why is the lower bridge over the Dnipro still there?

This will be the least cohesive battalion in Mobik history.

Combat mission Fire Direction Center needs to be a thing...

I fully agree that Patrushev is one factions candidate for the leadership post Putin, but there are at least three factions. I don't thing we can assume the current regime, by which I mean the FSB faction that Putin represents, can smoothly retain power after Putin's death with the whole regime under this level of stress. There are a LOT of other sharks that would like be first at the buffet whatever its current size. Indeed it is even more important to be at the front of the line as size of the buffet gets smaller. The obvious way for them to achieve that is if the entire FSB faction is suddenly on the menu. And the combination of the decision to launch the war being so tightly held, and the FSB's failure to actually produce a coup in Kyiv, certainly give at least a theoretical opening. There is a GREAT deal of blame to be assigned somewhere.

I have seen a quote from in an article from with good sourcing that said artillery was very important around Kyiv from the very beginning. The Russians, shockingly, didn't have their units stacked in the right order in that traffic jam, and it meant they had a hard time bringing their artillery into the fight. This gave the Ukrainians an opportunity to hammer the heads of the columns with a lot les counter-battery to worry about than you would have expected. REALLY high tech ghillie suits are going to be a thing. They might be THE thing. It is pretty clear that if they are fighting an armor heavy opponent that light infantry needs to carry as many AT weapons as it physically can. There is an interesting question about the best weapons mix though for fighting a similar light infantry force. Do you optimize for short range or long? Is it better to expose the infantry, or an indirect fire asset to deal with an enemy squad at fifteen hundred or two thousand meters. When are we getting that new digital sand box again? I can see a considerable scope for modules that explore different options.

Worth pointing out that broke the Russians completely, twice.

Speaking of the end of summer, who do we think the fall mud season helps/hurts more?

HIMARS has only been in action ten days. I am firmly convinced if it had come on line two weeks earlier Ukraine could have held the salient for a thousand years. As is it was the ONLY place the Russians could conveniently attack from three sides. Now they have to redeploy all that artillery under the HIMARS flail, and then supply it. I am not at all convinced the Russians will make more than trivial gains anywhere going forward. The next question is what can the Ukrainians do when they park NASSAM along a section of the front of their choosing and have to worry a lot less about Russian aviation.

Extremely unpleasant, but not really surprising.

That was the dumbest idea ever, or at least a contender for the prize. It exist only because of a quirk in the U.S. electoral system that I won't bombard the thread with. And yes it should be ended immediately.

This is less than cheerful. Still the best argument for outright NATO intervention.

Excellent Kamil thread about actual and potential unrest in Central Asia. He seems to think there is a non zero chance of a near complete melt down

A a successful revolt in Belarus is STILL the definitive way to end this war with a Ukrainian/Western victory.

The situation in Belarus continues to simmer but not boil. Lukashenko may collapse from simple exhaustion as he desperately tries to appease his own power structure and Putin at the same time. They are demanding incompatible things.

Both of these are excellent. Your translations and insights are very much appreciated.