dan/california

I like Eliot Cohen, I like Eliot Cohen a lot.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-21 ISW certainly agrees today wasn't great for the Ukr forces, but they certainly don't seem to think Russias long term prospects are any better. The guys who didn't start running at the second bang don't really deserve to still be here.

We don't know who it was a good day for until we know the casualties on both sides. A few THOROUGHLY flattened square kilometers in the Donbas mean almost nothing. Whose army is running out of soldiers first means almost everything.

https://www.google.com/maps/place/Kyselivka,+Kherson+Oblast,+Ukraine,+75022/@46.7546098,32.2893565,11.14z/data=!4m5!3m4!1s0x40c43cfdef98faf1:0x9874375c591247d1!8m2!3d46.7551837!4d32.4096737 If this true, and the Kyselivka I think he is talking about the Ukrainians really are closing in on Kherson.

This is, or is at least part of, the push Zelensky said was coming. The men are more important than territory that has been shelled to unrecognizable rubble. It might be time for some judicious repositioning. Thank you for keeping us in the loop.

Found a video that works. Very capable system if that recoil mechanism holds up. I would love to see a thousand shot test, or at least the results.

Either planes , pilots, or both are showing the stress of nearly four months of conflict.

The thing that I think would be incredibly useful is a 60mm mortar on a HUMVEE or similar with a digital fire control system. ROF for a sixty is close to twenty rounds a minute. If the FCS was automatically tweaking the aim between shots you could REALLY inconvenience a football field or two of bad guys and be on your way out of dodge ten seconds after the last round left the barrel. No it isn't going win the top tier counter battery fight, but that isn't the only thing going on.

https://www.amgeneral.com/what-we-do/platforms-automotive-systems/vehicle-lineup/humvee-2ct-hawkeye-mhs/#:~:text=The Humvee 2-CT Hawkeye,indirect and direct fire mode. A 105 mounted on a HUMVEE! https://www.amgeneral.com/what-we-do/platforms-automotive-systems/vehicle-lineup/brutus-155mm-mhs/ And truck mounted 155 Caesar analog, although it looks like a much shorter barrel. Anyway the memo seems to be well and truly out that putting the gun ON the truck is a 100 times more useful than towing the gun BEHIND the truck and praying the the other sides drones/counter battery don't find you while you are breaking it down to get it back on the hitch.

Always interested in Russian translations, even more so when a native speaker has has sorted out things that at least might be information from the firehose of nonsense the Russian media pumps out as a matter policy.

Thank you!

The prewar LDNR forces are pretty much gone now, there won't be tithe of them left by October. I am sure even more of their training cadre has already been committed to the fight than the regular Russian forces. I totally agree with the rest of your analysis. What favors Putin in winter is the gas supply in Berlin and Munich. Which might get him a deal on whatever he still holds, but certainly isn't going to get him anything back that he loses in a big August offensive by Ukraine.

Worth the time to read.

I realize this is a questionable source, but A) this is checkable. and B ) it would make an outstanding little Campaign for the game title about this war. And my heartfelt congratulations to Lieutenant for living to receive his medal, Although I assume he is a major now. He certainly should be between that outstanding performance and the fact there is a war on.

Now imagine Orlan 10s, or at least very lightly upgraded ones. There needs to be a highly automated factory turning them out by the tens of thousands. You have to think of them as ammunition more than a longterm asset going forward. You send them out in groups and hope one of them lives long enough to figure out what killed them. You kill THAT, and repeat the process. If you have enough drones to erode their anti drone capacity your artillery eventually gets to pound them into scrap almost unbothered.

And when might we get to test various kinds of augmentations in a certain 3D digital environment per chance?

She also says the moon is made of cheese, and Russian tanks are on the outskirts of Paris.

Is that ships launching missiles, or ships on fire? Also, you have to pity Russian naval conscripts, you have to eat Russian navy food and THEN get sunk Edit, I read it right on the third try...

I am betting on Zelensky As a small aside, the word commonly used for the peace/appeasement/surrender monkey party is dove, not pigeon. But I think I like pigeon much better.

Not too late to start selling Ukraine cruise missiles for a dollar each as they cross the Polish border.

Russia has decided to make the units on Snake Island hostage to how unhappy NATO is with Putin. Then Putin decided to see how much more unhappy he can make NATO. My guess is that their all expenses paid Black Sea vacation ends rather badly for those Russian SAM crews.

It has a real Berlin 1945 feel, when Hitler started to give orders to armies that only existed in his imagination.

It doesn't actually matter whether they are dead or just go home.

Given that they have been breaking their teeth in in Severodonetsk for a month, and still don't have it seems a wee bit optimistic to declare that there will be huge new push even as our entire logistics infrastructure goes up in flames.

It appears that as the war has developed that the Chechens have mostly gotten the job of standing behind the Russian lines and telling the Russian/Buryat troops doing the actual fighting that we will kill if you run, too, so you might as well fight. I am not sure how explicitly this is stated, but it seems to be how it works. Now the Chechens are probably being committed to some the ugliest urban combat of the whole war, at the exact moment that better western artillery has arrived and the Russian artillery advantage is is starting to diminish. The very interesting question is what happens when the Chechen's have been attrited to the point that THEY don't want to be there anymore. Is there some other incredibly ugly fascist/totalitarian glue holding this excuse for an army together?