dan/california

Yes, this is how I interpreted the numbers as well. "Irretrievable" losses is a standard way to summarize the permanent damage done to a military force. It's the number we bean counters care most about when looking ahead to the next battle. WIA is too vague and sometimes the totals for MIA and POW are significant. The way Russian vehicles explosively deconstruct, and then burn, I wold assume they have a LOT of MIA. Does anybody have any idea what the Russian standard is for declaring someone one or the other? Is it just a question of what allows the commander to steal more money? I am still betting on a non trivial racket of collecting death benefits for soldiers that never existed in the first place, and are now conveniently KIA/MIA.

I would disagree rather strongly that the Ukrainians don't have an integrated air defense. That is WHY the VKS just cant fly over Ukr territory at all. I have a lot of question about how it works, but they are not going to answer those until the war is over, and they have a new one built with NATO tech.

U.S. is doing a LOT of work on lasers for anti drone work. It is the only way to get the range needed at a bearable cost per shot. In the meantime the applicable cost ratio is not the value of the drone that you are shooting the expensive missile at, but the cost of belling shelled by drone observed/corrected artillery fire, which can be rather high. That is just the current state of play. The Russian air force has just not been capable of complex operations in this war. The several zillion dollar question whether that is because of corruption and incompetence, or has the balance shifted, and Iraqi Freedom type air ops just aren't possible anymore.

One of several new games Battlefront needs to get going on, if there is enough data to base it off off. And yes, all Ukr. success is dependent on this.

If Combat Mission has taught me anything, it is that bad commanders can get their troops killed in unbelievable numbers. Steve has always mentioned that no real world commander would do many of the truly suicidal things that the AI, or bad players attempt in CM. Except the Russian commander are TERRIBLE, and they DO treat their soldiers like bad little pixeltruppen, and so...

The analysis of this war is greatly complicated by the fact that neither side has been able to assemble what NATO considers a full spectrum of capabilities. In the Donbas this has resulted in a weird asymmetric near stalemate with massive attrition on both sides. 1. If the initial Russian failure proved anything it is that modern tech/missiles have increased the cost of protecting supply lines by an order of magnitude, maybe more than one. This factor by itself may make an offensive war like the U.S. conducted in Iraq impossible. This is a LARGE strategic shift. 3. The Israelis have been acutely aware of this lack of strategic depth for forever. They have a stated policy that if an army from outside Syria crossed into Syria with even possible intentions of attacking Israel, that the Israeli air force would commence attacks the minute it crossed the Syrian/IRAQI border. I am quite sure they would feel even more strongly about it if the tanks were Iranian. 4. A lot of the early Russian success on the Southern front was due to the FSBs coop/subversion planning working there. There were SEVERAL key betrayals in and around Kherson in particular. I expect the Ukrainians to hunt those people for FOREVER. 5. Ukr still has not solved for Russian air attack when they attempt large scale offensive operations. Whatever exact combination of S300s, manpads, and ? that is keeping Russian aircraft from overflying Ukr. territory just doesn't seem to work when the Ukrainians try a mechanized advance. So most of their offensive operations have to move at the tempo of marching light infantry.

Don't hate me for saying this, but it is time for you to run for parliament. They need more smart people in that room who know what they are talking about.

Allow me to remind everyone AGAIN, that railroad sabotage is the most effective form of protest. And in addition, it can be done quietly in the middle of the night. You might actually get away with it That isn't just my opinion, I stole it from Kamil Galeev.

At least the attitude hasn't extended to the current government. Switching sides is hard for people, just seems to be a fact of life, especially when your side and your career re intertwined. I would love for you to post the link, google translate has gotten rather good. Although I admit I haven't tried it on Czech.

It would be interesting to include a guess as to the composition of the "long war" armies in a module eventually.

Great thread from the Aussie general.

Yeah but the judge in Malaysia doesn't care about anything except the size of the bribe. In Russia, very much like Iran, there is a substantial risk of getting bleeped for geopolitical reasons. There are so many other places to go....

https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/return-industrial-warfare Ammo production needs to be increased by a lot, and the ability to surge production in wartime needs to be increased by a LOT more. Build new highly automated plants with a work force sufficiently trained, and therefore paid, such that virtually every employee in the plant can do every production line job. Rotate people to different positions on a regular schedule. In peacetime you run one shift five days a week. Thus there are enough trained people that production can be increased by ~2.5 by going to a 24/7 almost instantly. I can't imagine a better job to give slightly disabled veterans. The fact this will take a while is reason to start right NOW.

Imagine the morale of a Russian unit pulled out of the meat grinder in Ukraine and told "alright boys were attacking NATO now".

There is a reason I keep yelling for absolutely maximalist support for Ukraine, up to and including the commitment of NATO airpower. I still like the idea of selling them cruise missiles for a dollar a piece in mid flight as the they cross the Polish Border. And since we would be launching them we could even be sure they weren't aimed at Russia proper. I know people would scream escalation, but if the Russians wanted to escalate they long since. would have. Launching so many of them at snake Island the it got about five feet lower in elevation would be an outstanding demonstration that it was time to go home. Russia has never been a safe country for western tourists/business people. Hopefully they will trade him for one of their people eventually. MLRS can get most of it done, well enough. The Ukrainians don't have to launch a massive amphibious operation.I mean NATO airpower would be better, but....

It makes perfect sense, unless you bleep around into a real war. Then those very loyal, but not so very competent, commanders get your elite units slaughtered. The very elite units who are supposed to keep the army from deciding that maybe their real enemy is in Moscow.

Izyum is where there supply line crosses the river. North of Izyum they have to cross the river to do real damage.

Yeah , he needs to be put in charge of the english language coms department soonest!

Ok your wife and relationship are worthy of their own thread if you wan to start one. There is a book in that somewhere.

What he said.

The dominoes are starting to at least tremble with regards to Russia's position in central Asia. The complete immolation of your army can do that to an empire.

Indeed, I wonder if intelligence about Putin's plans informed the decision that it was time to go?

And we would epically bleeped if we were still there with Russian ATGMs raining down from every hill top.

Sinking that Russian tugboat/supply ship is big deal. It could turn Russias attempt to fortify Snake Island into an ugly trap for a bunch of their AA/EW assets.

I am strongly of the opinion that the situation in Belarus heavily influenced the timing of the war in Ukraine. Putin only got real and effective control of Belarus in the last couple of years. It was being able to start the invasion a hundred miles from Kyiv that convinced Putin he could pull off the coup/decapitation fast enough to avoid a truly large western reaction.