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dan/california

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Everything posted by dan/california

  1. Pilots ^$@^ can be seen from space, even on a RUSSIAN satellite.
  2. If I had that kind of pocket money I would give it to a Ukrainian charity.
  3. That is a REALLY good photo. Is there a truly hi res version. I might make it my background.
  4. See below Scholz and Jake Sullivan need to haunted by Ukrainian widows for the rest of their lives. Brave men are dying by the hour, in what may the most morally clear war EVER, because those bleeping fools want to split hairs. And yes we have given the Ukrainians just enough. But bleeping bleep me asking other people to die for your anxieties takes hubris. We need to get over our selves and start shipping Ukraine M-26 rockets by the ship and train load. This is the army they were built to kill, and the entirety of eastern Ukraine is going to have to be de-mined regardless.
  5. After Kherson, and that is going well but NOT done yet. Ukraine would have to clear out everything from Melitopol the The Dnipro to even attempt Crimea. It is my general assumption they are going to try that next, Ukraine has a significant interior lines advantage though. Once the forces that are taking back Kherson have that totally locked down, and that could take til thanksgiving or Christmas in the worst case scenario. Although the Russians could break and run tomorrow, too. The AFU can will be able to decide where the Russians are weakest and hit them there. It might make more sense to make a real push for the Kupiansk rail junction and completely unpin Russian logistics in the northern Donbas. Retaking Mariupol would be a huge propaganda victory. The only thing I am absolutely sure of is that the AFU general staff is smarter than I am and a LOT smarter than the Russians.
  6. Just open an account with a picture of a sunflower and some go Ukraine verbiage. You never have to post ANYTHING.
  7. Probably as good an open source map as you can get right now.
  8. Do we have any rough estimates of the L/DPR casualties as a percentage of the 18-55 male population? And of course they aren't done dying yet... The FSB has clearly pulled every single string it still holds in attempt at a coordinated campaign to get some sort of negotiated settlement before the Russian military just collapses. They are of course six months late. This should have happened on February 25th. Of course Putin only told ~twenty people he was actually going to do this in advance. At lest it is a good case study on how long it takes the FSB to put a major operation together. Now it just looks like desperate last gasp, and I think the momentum on the military side is close to unstoppable. The U.S. isn't wavering, and Poland is frothing at the mouth to enter the war, not much else is required to keep the pressure up until at least Christmas.
  9. I can't imagine why? His fighters are a terrible threat to empty buildings, traffic signals, defenseless women, and above all SHEEP. Are those not the characteristics of an elite military unit? A traffic signal with bad intentions is dangerous thing after all. Well it can be dangerous if there was any risk of it getting electricity back, but I digress.
  10. Not his usual tone at all, someone told him to toe the line or take long walk out a short window ledge. The interesting bit will be what happens when the Russian position on the west side disasters.
  11. I am starting to think this is all going to work out.
  12. Russian losses are spiking enormously since the big push started.
  13. It is a 50 year old excuse for an APC, If the crew got out and located a Russian position or two it is a good trade. If we wanted perfection we should have sent 500 Bradleys and 250 Abrams. Or just sent a couple of U.S. heavy brigades and ended this. We asked them to do it by themselves on a shoe string, it is not going to be perfect. Compare this to the crewman running TOWARDS a Caesar to get it out from under Russian counter-battery fire, with complete disregard for his own life. They have a pretty good sense of what equipment matters. Actually it might be older than fifty years. A vaguely related thought. In the CMBS back story one U.S. medium, and one heavy brigade turn a guaranteed defeat for Ukraine into a near run thing. in the war we actually have two U.S. brigades would end this thing in a week, with a defeat Russia would need three generations to get over.
  14. I bought the modern bundle months ago. Nothing left to buy until something new comes out, and Steve is still full opsec on that. For reasons, i get it but.... just the tineist of bones? Some of the little mouse teeth they find in the very best fossil deposits?
  15. I think part of what is holding them back is a delusion they might still win. Putin wants to hold a parade in the government quarter, install a new government and so on. Knocking it down means admitting that he has lost essentially. It would also make excellent propaganda for the Ukrainians. And it is very unlikely to disrupt the government very much unless they get Zelensky. His body guards are obviously competent to have made it this far, I assume they have a continuously updated plan for getting him to a bomb shelter on 90 seconds notice.
  16. https://wartranslated.com/lpr-volunteer-murz-on-the-ukrainian-offensive-and-its-consequences-for-russia/ Seems to think the war is all but lost for Russia regardless of how the Kherson offensive comes out. Says the Russian army is simply out of competent technical specialist and isn't getting more anytime soon.
  17. There are some videos, not least those you mentioned, where the air burst is extremely obvious. But insofar as I can tell, airburst is being used about a tenth as often as it ought to be. I don't know if this is due to electronic counter measures against older VT fuses, or if their are just not enough vt fuses to go around.
  18. Steve and Illia are so aligned they either are, or should be, friends.
  19. Steve has been proven right a LOT. And even when the game's AI has been "wrong" it is better than ~90% of actual Russian commanders. Also, the next game is going to have to deal with mines in more detail given their importance in this war.
  20. It means the Russians should go home now, today, while they still can.
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