dan/california

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-62922152?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=KARANGA Russia's Wagner boss: It's prisoners fighting in Ukraine, or your children I suspect the convicts will do just fine. Although you have to wonder what level of disaster is going to get these people to leave. Nothing for it but more 155.

Run for parliament, or write a book. Better yet run for Parliament AND write a book. Not joking, yes I know you would rather help shape the future of Combat Mission in a quiet retirement.

If the Ukrainians are still pushing towards a place eight miles from the Russian boarder, and in deteriorating weather, they must be strongly of the opinion that Russia/LPR has nothing to push back with. They seem to want to spend the winter camped on ALL of the Russian supply lines bar the Kerch bridge.

All that makes perfect sense, the situation is so fluid, on multiple levels, as to be utterly unpredictable. Lenin was 12 hours form an impromptu firing squad right up until he was the Czar of all the Russias, albeit without the snazzy wardrobe. But Prigoshin has a cadre of people who will shoot who he tells them too, and ask no questions at all, unless someone gets to them with a better offer, and we are back to the impromptu firing squad.

The propaganda would seem to be inclined to my theory that Putin will double down yet again in an attempt to reinforce Prigozhin's position as the savior of mother Russia. And when it comes to the post Putin power struggle I am not inclined to bet against the guy with a proven record of putting heads on pikes above the castle gate. I realize that he could also be messily dead before I finish lunch. There have not been many situations in history with less certainty about them. The resemblance to 1917 grows by the day. That one turned out so well after all...

Something the vast percentage of the population that is utterly illiterate in military matters recognizes.

The most immediate problem I see with Prigozhin's rise is that he seems dependent on continuing/more conflict. His whole play is military competence, so his accession requires the war in Ukraine to continue, or starting some sort of conflict somewhere else just to keep the politics pushing the right way. This seems to greatly increase the odds of Russia fighting Ukraine to the point of utter failure, followed pretty quickly by some of the more extensive breakup scenarios. Because their just won't be an army left.

It might be time to really utilize that interior lines advantage, and see if they can catch the Russians with their reserves stuck on rail sidings in Rostov on Don. If they have any reserves???

I think he means leveraging things like Tik Tok, and other less public means to increase division and indecision in the U.S. and E.U. political systems. Out right seizing/banning Tik Tok would an excellent first countermove to demonstrate we are serious about the next phase.

Because there is a very real risk that Ukraine and Poland are going to wind up being equipped with Abrams, and the South Korean tank instead. This will cost Germany both a very great deal of influence, and a significant long term revenue stream from parts, maintenance and so on.

There is a very strong real politik argument that Ukraine should quit at the 2014 borders in return for EU. NATO, Reparations and so on. It would be a much more unified country, and far easier to govern well. I advanced that argument about twelve hundred pages ago in this thread. For better or worse, I don't think that is a sustainable political position in Ukraine anymore if the military conquest of the territory seized in 2014 is possible. Retaking Crimea and the L/DPR outright make Ukrainian victory undeniable, after the blood price they have paid they want that VERY badly. And we don't know if the Russian military collapse can be halted once it really gets going. Results from Kharkiv imply the only limit on Ukrainian exploitation once they get a breakthrough is their own logistics. It one thing to wage a grinding street by street house by house fight for Luhansk. It is quite another to seize it by a coup de main in a weekend and send the worst actors over the Russian border, or face down into a ditch, in an assisted panic before any silly legalisms have to be observed.

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/09/15/world/ukraine-russia-war As previously discussed, I don't think the public statements from a meeting between two near absolute autocrats mean much. However to the extent it is worth bothering to read the tea leaves from this one I get the distinct impression the Xi told Putin he was making the "Association of Evil Empires" look bad and weak at the same time. Xi seems less than pleased with this situation. I was really Expecting Xi to provide a bit more support in public regardless of the private telling off, this might actually mean something.

The Indian government seems to combine the worst characteristics of third world corruption and U.S. style democratic sclerosis. There are zillion interest groups that have to bought off publicly, AND another zillion bureaucrats who need their palms greased, to do anything at all. So the default position is to do nothing, ever. Modi seems to have made this much worse, outside of a showcase project or two, and added a nice dose of religious extremism. Not sure where it goes from here, but not hopeful. As far as their defense industry goes, depending on Russia for weapons to fight China, or Chinese proxies with seems unwise. See above for why i don't expect them to arrive at a good solution.

The Czar is dead, Long live the Czar. That man is headed for a crown or a window at about Mach 1.5, with the throttles hammered all the way to the stops, and the afterburner flames visible from space. Does he have any competent adult sons or sons in law? I would like to familiarize myself with the new dynasty. Not really joking...

The onion is out Business, these people are impossible to parody. This plan to replace the, admittedly useless, military with a bunch of PMCs is the most perfect, most guaranteed plan for civil war ever. In the attempt to balance Wagners rise as the single most effective arm of the Russian state, which all but crowns Prigozhin CZAR, they guarantee civi war instead. Every member of the armed forces who can get the magazine in an AK variant without shooting his foot off will desert to a PMC at the earliest opportunity. Various bits of the FSB accept bids and we are into beyond bad novel territory. Actually Javelin and HIMARS, and M777 are twenty year old tech. Replacements for all but the M777 are WELL underway. Insofar as I can tell the U.S. Army still has it head firmly up its rear end on developing a decent 52 caliber 155. Even as it come up with one brilliant ammo idea after another. Hopefully the evidence of this war wi get that solved.

Putin clearly got a wholesale deal when he bought the entire German officer Corps.

I would hate to be the other driver, if there was one. Going from bleep you have had a fender bender, to oh my there are 7 automatic weapons and a grenade launcher pointed at you would not be fun.

This is a play to make himself CZAR, period. It will end with a crown, or a sixth floor window. For the record I think Russian forces in Ukraine collapse by Thanksgiving, and the Putin falls by Christmas. Most of the Russian far east simply stops returning Moscow's calls by February. Advice worth what you paid for it...

As bad as the Russian army is going to be my new goto phrase.

It is not that Europe has done nothing, Europe has done a great deal. It is that if the rest of Europe had leaned in the way the Poles and the Baltics have this thing would have been over in July. But as a very old saying goes "Victory has a thousand father, and defeat is an orphan". The Minority leader of the US Senate and the German Foreign minster are now both calling for absolutely MAXIMUM support, and doing it cameras rolling in the cold clear light of day. The Russians will get the point now, or when a couple of brigades with full NATO gear smash them into the Sea of Azov, and bleep on the smoking, bleeding, wreckage.

Well he will be Czar, or stepping out a window soon...stepping might not be the right word.

Time will tell, War Monitor does have episodes of excessive optimism...He is also right a lot.

There are multiple volumes to be written about how the Ukrainians have kept the Russian air force bottled up, and the info to write most of them is going to be classified until the war ends or well after. The thing I will state briefly is that the Russian air force is just not the the big growling bear we thought it it was. What on paper are pretty good airplanes, in fairly large numbers, have performed far below expectations due to some combination of technical problems, unskilled pilots, and a completely broken system for picking and prioritizing targets. One specific mistake was starting this war with perhaps a tenth, or even less, of the precision guided weapons needed. It is hard to overstate the size of this failure on the course of the war. Pretty clear someone, maybe everyone, stole a lot of money. they have lost this war because of it.

Il like this post, i could have JUST liked this post, if only I had any likes left.....

Ukraine plus Poland plus the Baltics, was a great power once. Don't rule out that they can be again, triply so if Belarus were to get rid of Lukanhesko.