dan/california

Russian timing on the dam strike might be very poor, or it might be related to this news. They have effectively divided the pocket right when the AFU are making a push on the southern side. Was this intentional or accidental?

Very good read!

I have bee looking for a good hydraulic model of the area around Kherson for a while. Lacking said model I agree with the above that it isn't going to impact the the Ukrainian bridgeheads for all that long. And will certainly also affect the Russians river crossings. A last ditch measure to enable a retreat across the Nova Khahovka dam while limiting the Ukrainians ability to shell it into utter disaster makes the most sense. But the Ukrainians also have significant forces on the far North side of the pocket that can pursue such a retreat. This does coordinate sensibly with the attempts to fill the damaged bridge at the Nova Khahovka dam with Rubble. It all points to one last desperate throw to get their forces out. Remember it is the RUSSIANS who get bleeped if the big dam at Nova Khahovka was to be destroyed. The eastern/southern side of the river is notably lower. So all of the Russians forces massed between Melitipol and the Dnipro would be at risk of flooding, starting with ALL the artillery supporting the pocket from the other side. Huge civilian casualties too and ect., but it would just bleep the Russians utterly.

This s where AFU's interior lines could REALLY matter. If mud ends the Northern fighting season early. AFU could shift south to push at Melitipol much faster than the Russians. Holding Recent gains around Kharkiv with the Russians road bound would require a lot less forces than taking them did. If Ukraine can make gains on the east side of the Dnipro before winter that further impinge Russian logistics west of their the Russians winter just gets that much less pleasant.

The USMC's fleet of M1A1 Abrams tanks was retired in 2020. It was something over 400 tanks. About ~320 are sitting in Anniston Army Depot in Alabama. They have been available for immediate shipment to Ukraine since the War in Ukraine began. These tanks should have been on a ship to Ukraine six months ago. There is no excuse whatsoever why they can't be on one by Friday. The Ukrainians have bled enough, they have done enough. They have in fact paid a higher bill in blood and treasure for the privilege of joining the western world than anyone except the South Koreans. Ship them ANY armaments we aren't actually using Let them in all the Alliances, NATO, EU, and so on. The South Koreans have worked out rather nicely. I expect the Ukrainians to do at last as well. Just sent the above to my Congressman and both Senators. Copy paste and modify at will.

A ridiculous attack at the worst possible spot, under the glare of the all seeing eye and infinite HIMARS. So yes, suicide by AFU.

The Russians cut and run outside of Kyiv. They might be about to cut and run to 2/24 lines. There is a pretty good military argument they don't have any other rational choice. I assume they are going to try and hold Crimea. But if the contest for power in Moscow has kicked off for real who knows. Retreat to 2/24 lines would at least get their calls returned in Paris and Berlin.

We just need to Get Ukraine Abrams and other truly first line gear before Russia can round up a truly large mass of cannon fodder. However bad it is now in Moscow, it will be worse after another 300,000 casualties, and most of the far east declaring independence, or actively trying to get Chinese "protection". Edit: Going all in and failing Guarantees a much smaller Russia in a year or four.

These guys standing in Lyman now is the best possible scenario. They can be surrounded and killed. It might delay things a week. They would be far more dangerous if they were smart enough to dissolve into the wood work and start setting up a guerilla war now. As dead martyrs in the worst cause since the Confederacy they are a remarkably small problem.

An unbelievable performance every measure by the Ukrainians is why they are winning. Western aid has however allowed that performance to move from ugly attritional victory that might have taken years to a dynamic offensive that really could end this nightmare by new years. Or at least have Ukraine starting 2023 more or less on the. the 2/24 lines. The Capn is not underestimating their ability to be dangerous Bleeps individually and in small groups. They are awful people, and not stupid, and very highly motivated. What he is saying is that the Ru Nats didn't have enough control of the SMO at the beginning to impose any measure of competence on the overall plan for the SMO at the beginning, and now it is TOO LATE. If Girkin and Murz were miraculously appointed as commander and chief of staff today this mess couldn't be saved. By every military measure the Russian forces in Ukraine are beaten, unfixably beaten. The Nats could concieveably commit one or several atrocities/wmd incidents that would inspire NATO to finish this in a week, that would suck, but doesn't change the outcome. And neither do any of their other options, beaten is beaten.

There needs to be a special prison in Ukraine run by crippled AZOV veterans, and the widows of fallen AZOV soldiers. These Russian "teachers" should be the first inmates.

"The sides share the understanding that democracy is a universal human value, rather than a privilege of a limited number of States, and that its promotion and protection is a common responsibility of the entire world community." The quote is from the document billindc linked above. Ii would be hilarious if there wasn't a genocidal war under way in Ukraine, and a a mere genocide or three underway in China, conducted by the signatories. Pretty much tells you how much faith to put in the rest of it. We will know as much about that meeting as the Five Eyes intelligence services want to tell us. There is literally no point in even skimming what China and Russia put out. EDIT: I mean some poor bleeps in various foreign ministries have to read it, but I suspect the need strong coffee and stronger stomachs...

I have the strongest possible impression that the Russian system for doing what you do is utterly broken? And that that isn't the least of their problems? Might be one the top three actually? And they have a LOT of problems.

Winter in a shack outside of Rostov on Don is less than they deserve but should still be quite unpleasant...

Hard to be sure when the Russian army is so bleeped the Russian General Staff isn't sure either. Parts of it may have surrendered somewhere else.

Hopefully we won't have to start THE THREAD PART TWO, TAIWAN EDITION anytime soon... Greatly appreciate all your insights here!

I have been saying for weeks that once the whole river is 155 range it is all over but the crying, and the dying. Amount of fire on the crossing points goes up 100x. And counter battery risk to those 155s goes way down. There will be a gesture of good will attempted within 48 hours. Probably followed by the mass surrender of the survivors.

I CAN'T KEEP UP! The Russians are losing too fast...

Big news, or best trolling EVER. I think poster is a serving U.S. army officer.

They didn't much care how many infantrymen they got killed back then anymore than they do now. The whole process was slower but they made it work. And in terms of future force design one thing this war has just settled is every platoon, maybe even every squad is going to have a drone. I am very curious if the next version of the game will make them an independently controllable unit or abstract that somehow? I would argue you pretty much have to have superiority of fires to launch an assault 2022. AFU is doing it around Kherson without a big enough edge, but it doesn't look easy. And even so counter-battery seems to be where the Russians are the weakest, or they couldn't do it at all. I would also argue that Iranian artillery in 1985 was simply not remotely similar to drone directed precision guided rounds. Better in that context means it took an hour to call a fire mission with a 100 meter CEP, as opposed to what multiple of both those numbers the Iraqis were. Just not even the same thing. Probably in Ukraine today, and certainly in a top tier force going forward from 2022 you are talking about the FDC and the FO/platoon commander looking at the same fused multi-drone fused sensor picture and mouse clicking which window they want the round to go through. They would actually be selecting from a menu of available assets so they didn't use more boom than necessary . This is all stuff that is live or at least in active testing in a proving ground somewhere in the desert southwest. When you figure in the massive logistical tail that comes with the tank the difference is less than you think. 3 gallons to mile for the tank, and maybe five miles per gallon for the fuel truck add right up. Javelins come in a sealed tube and don't take 3 specialized maintenance personnel. Javelin is actually last generation tech, next version won't have that problem, will probably be able to cue from the drone and launch on the move.

Wasn't somebody working on a game to explore some of these questions?

They mostly broke through the German lines in places where there were very few Germans. When you have a battalion per kilometer of front, and they have a platoon, the details don't matter much. Edit: the Wagner attempt to overrun the U.S. base in Syria was an exception to this rule, but the disparities in tech level and support assets were incomprehensibly vast. Where is the heavier firepower going to come from? Purely artillery? Back to WWI tactics? Infantry + artillery? It would cost you far more lives. Ask the Pasdaran in the Iran-Iraq War. If you have a 155mm gun section tasked directly to your assault unit with precision rounds you can probably get rounds on stationary positions at least as fast as a tank can. Javelins seem to work awfully well on things that move around. Pasdaran had neither. Except the AFU break thru has been almost entirely on roads, and there the difference matters a very great deal. And No tracked vehicle is going very far through terrain that its fuel trucks can't follow.

Second, not terribly bright question, I should have asked in the previous post. These units would be analogous to a ranger battalion at least in concept? Really high grade assault infantry acting in units of a company or more? As opposed to small team SOF? I get lost in the swirling morass of Russian unit types and abbreviations sometimes. And yes I realize the are are nowhere near as good as the the Rangers, I am just talking about the basic unit type and employment. Not much evidence in this war the Russians are good at much of anything except atrocities.

Anybody got a guess of their full strength numbers? Is this 20% or half, or is this unit too hush hush for us to know that?

Well, these orcs are too stupid live... EDIT: I have deep suspicion they have VERY guilty consciences.