dan/california

Not sure retirement is an option for FSB agents just now. It seems to result in long walks off of short window ledges.

The author must have gotten over the border into Georgia, he is less concerned he will instantly mobilized.

A man trying to appear brave or powerful wears a chest full of medals, a man who IS brave and powerful has no need. Trying to decide where tis is on the scale?

"Losing" both of them and using it as an excuse for a climb own would be the smartest thing they have done since Feb 23. No one would be more surprised than the cretins currently rigging the vote. I could see this as the one thing that might get them a meaningful change in the narrative, If they were willing to settle for the parts of the Donbas they currently hold. I also don't think they are that smart. Not unless their was something special in Putin's tea last night, and they are just holding off on the announcement.

https://twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1574120591073984512 We might be approaching the first REAL opposition the mobilization. Would Kadyrov commit Chechens to forcibly recruit Dagestanis? Would him trying do anything other than starting an insurgency in the Caucuses? Anybody know why this link isn't playing right?

Just like this.

We are about to see this on the scale of battalions rather than platoons. The Russians are going to put hundreds of mobiks at a time in places they should not be, with orders they cannot possibly fulfill. The one that don't surrender or rout in time are going to get chopped to dog meat. The AFU has a very great deal to be angry about. They have very disciplined about the entire surrender/prisoner process. BUT if a bunch of drunk Russian mobiks are caught dead to rights and don't give up when given the chance, The AFU is going joyfully FFE by entire artillery battalions before they ask the bleeding remnants if they would like to reconsider. Edit: And they should, because making Russian mobiks more scared of the Ukrainians than they are of their own officers is how to win this war.

Glory to Ukraine Glory to the heroes Nothing is going to convince the Russians to quit except zinc coffins, send lots.

Everything this guy puts out should be translated, animated, a pushed out on Russian Speaking telegram as hard as humanly possible.

Regarding persistence and volume of communication, Russian TV is basically fox news on every channel, all day. every day. The sheer volume of crap being shoveled down peoples throats is beyond astounding. Does anyone have book recommendations on missile guidance, radar, and electronic warfare? This war has convinced me I don't know enough about it. Those commenters who wish to inform me I don't know enough about anything, well I am open to other book recommendations as well. Our biggest problem in the info war is the sheer volume the other side puts out. Even more so in Russian and languages not commonly spoken in NATO. Our GREAT advantage is summed up by a movie quote " If you stop telling lies about me, I will stop telling the truth about you". The Russians really are utter B$$$####ds. They really do treat the parts of Ukraine they occupy like a disorganized concentration camp. They would/have treat/treated anybody else they have/would like to conquer the same way. That is why the places that have had the misfortune of having the Russians around provide %220 to Ukraine. See the book recommendations I posted last night. The most powerful thing about teaching things though interesting fiction is that it will be retained. I don't think this can overemphasized. It can be really hard to do to order, but when it works it the results are orders of magnitude greater than any other way. A person could make the same argument for games that teach the correct lessons, anybody know of one of those?

I think it is EXTREMELY unusual to have troops as bad as most of the Russian Army in a CMBS game. Honestly I am not sure it is possible, Steve brought up needing a lower category today, actually. When they really can't shoot straight, getting close enough to just finish them makes a lot of sense. Of course it is unfortunate if you try it against one the rare batches who CAN shoot straight, very, very, unfortunate. When you read about Russian Soldiers shooting maybe 10 rounds a month in training it makes sense.

The latest models with active protection could actually stay in sight of the enemy long enough to get superiority of fires, and advance in much steadier fashion. North and west of Kherson is just pancake flat, with almost no cover. T series tanks just can't attack successfully in that environment. The can't find defenders fast enough, don't shoot on the move well, and are vulnerable to a LOT of ATGM systems. I mean if CMBS is any guide you DO NOT want to get shot by a Metis, or Kornet in a T series tank. The hunter-killer thermals on the Abrams shorten the time to engage targets a LOT. Combine that with trophy APS, and the defense needs a lot ATGMs to hold a given section of line, and that density makes them better artillery targets. Throw in the fact that Abrams vs T72 is just NOT a fair fight. The one problem the Abrams doesn't solve is mines, they have to have the correct engineering support against mines. I assume the Russian have been laying them around Kherson like they were sunflower seeds. I will note that a lot of the Abrams advantages would be less significant against a better armed opponent, but against what the Russians have brought to this party they really would bring crushing advantages to bear if used well. And the Ukrainians seem to use most things well, most of the time.

OMG that is funny, that so ridiculously over the top funny.

I agree with everything you just said and have written things with that theme a number of times. In fact the first time I brought up a similar issue was probably fifteen years ago and involved using Javelins on insurgents, Steve was convinced they weren't worth the missile. If you need to kill it/them now, today, you use what you have and bleep the cost. It isn't what it cost, it is the damage it/they can do. We may have to do a lot of that to get through the war in Ukraine. That said if they can make you shoot million dollar missiles at $25,000 dollar drones, it is going to be an EXPENSIVE war. We really need a better plan for the next war, when the standard drone swarm is twenty five, or fifty, even or a hundred of the buggers. That is on the drawing board, and in more than one country.

https://www.amazon.com/Freehold-Second-Book-1-ebook/dp/B00HW1TV6O/ref=sr_1_6?crid=1KVMAHQFP9CLY&keywords=michael+z.+williamson&qid=1664077466&s=digital-text&sprefix=%2Cdigital-text%2C109&sr=1-6 https://www.audible.com/pd/Freehold-Resistance-Audiobook/1705296424?qid=1664076543&sr=1-1&ref=a_search_c3_lProduct_1_1&pf_rd_p=83218cca-c308-412f-bfcf-90198b687a2f&pf_rd_r=FP051X345QFXCJGDBJE5 https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B00BEQLTZY?ref_=dbs_m_mng_rwt_calw_tkin_0&storeType=ebooks&qid=1664077514&sr=1-7 The above are links to three books a science fiction series. First things first, the author has a screw loose, but then most sci-fi authors do. All of them were written well before this war, but it is almost eerie how he got some things about what has happened in Ukraine eerily correct. There are other parts that are so exactly opposite you almost think it was planned if it wasn't written before the war. He also has some thoughts about what happens when the weaker side decides it isn't getting any help. Did i mention he had a screw loose... All that said some of the things I have been the most right about were basically based on these books. Some of the things I have been wrong about, well by and large I am really happy to have been wrong, and hope i STAY wrong. FWIW

There is a reason every defense contractor worthy of the name working on laser systems frantically. It is the only way to kill the bleeping things at an affordable price.

I can think of several VERY unpleasant things the Ukrainians might do, I am going to carefully not write them down.

Ukraine is moving forward, and Russian planes are falling out of they sky. This is good.

We need to be sure that he Ukrainians have plenty warm, dry , and well supplied POW space. Surely the U.S. Army has some kits in containers sitting around the desert somewhere. We might want to get those moving towards Poland if we haven't already. Unpleasant thought, the camps probably need air defence to make it harder for the Russian to hit them in the attempt to discourage surrenders. They Russians really are that awful.

I am as least as guilty as anyone of pontificating on this. There is wide diversity of opinions. No one seems to be adjusting theirs much. Let's just hope a very great deal, dare I say pray even, that we don't have to learn the opinion of Biden, and NATO's general staff. I think we have talked it out. Ukraine still needs a plan for winter socks, and IFVs. Maybe if enough of the Russian mobiks freeze to death this winter or go home with awful cold injuries the Russians army will just sort of dissolve, instead of testing the blaze of glory plan. Getting Ukraine enough help that they can make the Russians get out and try to soldier in the wet and cold is a critical part of making this happen.

The outcomes of this one are going to weight rather heavily on the next one. The only thing more trashed than the Russian army is the Russian Army's reputation. The only credible threat against the Baltics or Finland would basically START with nuclear weapons, or threats thereof. Everyone knows NATO airpower could decimate the Russians in a week otherwise. Central Asia is a whole different problem and I assume the relevant people at the State department are working 24/7 on a plan to keep the lid from coming all the way off. Glad that isn't me. It might be time for a whole thread on Taiwan... Edit : Oh, and a game, did I mention that part.

Belgian Prime minister PICKS A SIDE! Edit: This pretty strong for a country that only has a government about two thirds of the time.

Most of the flaws in the NATO response came about because too much, not all, but too much, of NATO believed the Russian assessment that Kyiv would fall in three days. They were afraid of getting a brigade or two caught in country that was falling apart around them, and that it would be infinitely worse than just staying out. Boris said bleep it and gambled on a max effort at ATGM shipments, the Russian assessment of the Ukrainian government and military integrity was epically wrong, and here we are. The Russians assessment of their own forces was out to lunch too, and since we stole that from them too....

We haven't folded yet. I doubt she put that out without phoning home first.

So will the drunk, broke gambler push his last three chips into the pot? or not? I understood every sentence but the last one?