dan/california

Seems like he moisture management would be a bigger problem than the Finnish style. But I assume they have been proven to work.

And classes in Ukrainian, if you study hard you might get to stay.... Do the Russians try to hold ANYTHING on the right bank? Or will they have the sense to try and get some of their forces out? Because their entire position on the right bank is officially BLEEPED. Bigger question, who goes out a window in Moscow? Because this is outright humiliating after the whole annexation show. Edit: Steve said it would take Ukraine most of fall to deal with Kherson pocket. The AFU said hold my beer dude!

I have climbed ski lift towers at 30 below Fahrenheit, in the dark, at 10,000 ft elevation. I still have all my digits, but it is bleeping unpleasant. I really can'y imagine how bad it will be for the Russians unless they actually sort out their logistics system. My hopes for them are rather dim. Yes, this! One way or another these guys need to miss the rest of the war. This is good insight. Yes, this style of boot. But the entire issue is that there has to be a continuous supply of dry liners forward, preferably with socks, and all the logistics to dry them and maintain rotation. But it is the difference between huge trench foot casualties, and a functioning army. Continual freeze-thaw with precipitation is by far the hardest thing to function in.

This is one bit of news I hadn't seen anywhere else. If there were two or three tanks per barge this would add up quickly.

He literally, with forethought and intent, said absolutely nothing.

That might be the most useful map anyone has published in the entire war.

I want a poll on how much of Elon's money should be given to the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense, 80%, 90%, or 99%?

The brilliant info op a few weeks ago about Ukraine only being able to attack in Kherson would imply that the DOD public statements are whatever the SBU wants them to be, at least about Ukrainian prospects and intentions. The Russians swallowed the whole fishing rod on that one.

That would be JUUUUST outside of mortar range of the dam. It also might allow direct observation of the dam from a tall spot up river. There would never be another supply truck.

Luhansk and Kherson by the weekend? When do we think AFU finally take a swing for Melitipol? It really does look ever more like a general collapse.

The Kardashians will way in soon.......

Good thread.

If I may attempt to refocus the conversation just a little bit..... Do we think the Russians get routed out of Svatove in 12, 24, 36, or 48 hours? Should we start a pool? I don't have access to NATOs all seeing eye, but the only thing I see slowing down the AFU is muddy roads and the supply of fuel. The Russians are talking and fighting like spent force. Trench foot and frost bite are not mutually exclusive, Really wet weather at right around freezing is highly conducive to both. if the AFU can just operate enough to force the mobiks to man the trenches they will do an awful job of digging, the weather and the mud will do the rest. I would infinitely rather deal with a hard freeze than a muddy freeze thaw that never stops. Edit: The Argentines had significant weather casualties in the falklands for instance.

On current trend Russia will be lucky to be holding anything except Crimea by Christmas. The most likely change to that trend is that the Russia collapses faster, and they are back to Crimea only by thanksgiving. If the Russians throw a nuke then it is a completely different discussion, but Russia isn't going to win anything. There remains a very large question about what the rest of us lose.

One of the facts of modern war that Ukraine has reinforced is the difficulty of holding truly hostile territory where you can only patrol in platoon size units. This one of the things that sunk the U.S. in Afghanistan as well. If every look out post and dirt crossroads requires a platoon to sized unit there are not enough troops on earth to hold down a significant area. The AFU can cheerfully operate its recon forces in two jeep sections, and they can get a hot meal at any farmstead the Russians haven't destroyed. The difference in the two armies situation in the recon fight is hard to overstate. Consultations are are going to be ongoing for a few weeks. I expect something TRULY bizarre on the propaganda front here.

Clearly they are pushing their better artillery to the max. Past it in this case. I dare say the problem would disappear if we sent them anther 300 tubes. We should do that thing. Hopefully it is the barrel, and not the ammo. The ammo lot chase down sounds awful. It can't be completely ruled out that the barrel was damaged by either accident or enemy fire.

The Ukrainians don't want the Russians to be able to pull the units out Kherson in merely bad order, and use them for cadre for a second wave of mobiks. I don't know the relative wight of this factor, but I am guessing that it wasn't zero.

Ukraine seems to want to make a rather emphatic point about the annexation. Specifically that they absolutely couldn't care less. Or could be 100% based on the alignment of military factors, but I m guessing the the annexation had a lLittle weight on the timing. It doesn't hurt that the Russian forces in the northern Donbas are all but folding. So pushing in Kherson now creates the maximum amount of command stress and bad choices. Putin may be willing to give away Luhansk, but I am fairly sure he didn't want to give it away by Thanksgiving.

Your saying to crack the good stuff tonight, just in case?

I have said for literally months that the minute Nova Khahovka is in range of regular 155 the Russians north of the Inhulets are done. But they are collapsing so fast the more important question might be the quality of swimming lessons in Russia's outer reaches. My guess is not great.

Two or three months of merciless shelling knocks a units quality and quantity right down. The Germans held strong in the Hedgerows around Normandy, Until they didn't.

https://www.google.com/maps/place/Nevs'ke,+Luhansk+Oblast,+Ukraine,+92917/@49.1777595,37.9247594,22670m/data=!3m1!1e3!4m5!3m4!1s0x412063eca4ad174d:0x3b5a4943f3e41f42!8m2!3d49.1700174!4d37.9758365!5m1!1e4 Did I mention the AFU were not going to stop until the Russians made them? This would cut a major road North of Kremina. If the Russians can't hold at the next water obstacle a ~8 kilometrs to the east the AFU could flank them out of Kremina and Severodonetesk in a single go. Going to be an ugly Monday morning at the MOD in Moscow.

The 3rd so called Army Corps seems to have been a stealth lend lease program for Ukraine. Edit: It was nice of them to send most of the new stuff with manuals.

The thing that stands out to me is that to attack right down the riverbank like this the Russian artillery on the other side must have been HEAVILY suppressed. LLF brought this up in the last ~24 hours. Edit: Or perhaps the Russians have managed a classic case of panicking late, and the attack in Kherson rolled out as soon as some of the supporting elements on the east bank of the Dnipro were put on a train for a long trip to Luhansk.

The Ukrainians seem to have been offended by this annexation farce.