dan/california

It could be the Ukrainians got claymores out as part of their hasty defensive lines in the woods. It would have been the tactically smart thing to do to go with the fire power being deployed to make the road all but impassable. If it went down anything like I think it did it didn't take long for Russian wrecks to jam the road completely. Edit: And we apparently sent a bunch of them fused for manual triggering only.

The test will be simple enough, if the medium sized miracle of him coming to power occurs. Train after train of the people Putin has kidnapped arriving in Kyiv would be the obvious thing to demonstrate sincerity.

All of his stuff is great, but there is real insight in this one.

AFU aren't stopping until the Russians get it together and make them.

The only reason I can see that he is still alive is that Putin wanted to have him executed publicly as part of the victory celebration for his "special military operation". The SMO turning out to be special in all the wrong ways seems to have paralyzed Putin's thinking on the matter. I mean Lenin was sent to Siberia once, and managed to return....

https://www.kyivpost.com/article/opinion/op-ed/bravo-navalny-for-clarifying-your-position-on-ukraine-and-the-west.html Navalny stakes his claim for Western support as the next leader of Russia. 100% denouncement of the War Against Ukraine, and Russian imperialism generally. Does he believe actually believe that? Who knows? but a Russian leader who has even said it once would be a rather large improvement. And of course has to live through the war and a few other details.

This is the most sense I have heard a member of the German talk. Hard for an army's morale to BE any higher than that. I have advocated for this for months. Every square inch of Ukraine that has been fought over has been mined beyond the point of saturation. The idea is to make the Russians go home so you CAN demine it. The M26 rockets would/will move that right along.

Aristiovych for the number, and yes I know he isn't the most reliable source in world. Description is mostly from a story Steve referenced above that is first hand Ukrainian account. And the Russians were apparently abandoning their wounded, which drives the KIA number through the roof. They broke and ran and got chased HARD, like everything else in this war we won't know all the details until well after if ever. Found the first hand account again. https://ukrainevolunteer297689472.wordpress.com/2022/09/30/its-a-slaughter/

Would it make any difference at all if the numbers come in at 900 KIA, and 600 badly wounded prisoners? Maybe Ukraines second wave was able to spare the personnel for a major triage and and casualty evacuation operation? The 155 and mortars on the road out were so bad the the Russians abandoned their vehicles and tried to use the woods, both side had mined those woods. The Russians appear to have been driven been through their own minefields, then the Ukrainians minefields, then into Ukrainian units that killed them until they were out of ammo and literally sick of it.

So after the Russians around Lyman got the 21st century equivalent of trying too rout, and being ridden down by calvary what is next? There have probably been the best part of 2000 Russian KIA in the last 24 hours, note I did not say casualties. If he commits the mobiks in numbers that would make any difference the next rout could see multiples of that, or mass surrenders. We could easily wake up tomorrow with the Kherson pocket reduced by a third. His military option space, if my may attempt channel The_Capt, is dwindling towards none. Or maybe too retreating to Crimea while he might be able to hold it, or not even managing that. So what if anything will get him to quit?or convince someone to shoot him? Or are we back to that big bright flash discussion? If Beijing offered him a comfortable asylum would he take it?

What will the impact be of ANOTHER 100,000 zinc coffins. Although they will probably be down to cack handed pine boxes well before that point.

Ukraine is THE capital of trolling.

The info-op six weeks ago where various bits of the U.S. and Ukrainian government mournfully stated the AFU was only capable of attacking Kherson, that the logistics just couldn't stretch any further, is going down as literally the most effective deception in the history of warfare, it is CERTAINLY on the podium. The Russians didn't buy it hook line and sinker, they ate the fishing rod. I wonder what else has been carefully miss-communicated?

Not until there is the report of a pistol from his office, or a window mishap. Then we see if there is a Russian empire left in a week. That Mongolian calvary, and it literally is Mongolian calvary, might decide it makes more sense to loot and rape their way home across most of Russia. Their other choice is fighting AFU armor with ever more NATO gear and a habit of killing them from 5000 meters.

There is a theory floating around that Putin is cutting bait on Northern Luhansk. Putin being Putin, and the Russian army being a sad excuse for poop, that is resulting in the encirclement of most of the remaining forces there, instead of a competent retreat. The train carrying what looked like a whole battlegroup across the Kerch bridge, would be exhibit A for this theory. They really ought to be going Luhansk if the Russians were even trying to hold it. Edit: Putin may have hoping to hold it with a flood of mobiks. There is a story they has already been something close to a banzai charge on the northernmost/easternmost AFU Oskil crossings. It didn't go well.

So back to my theory about skipping the nuclear escalation. NATO has the ability kill every Russian in Kherson pocket in a day. I mean some of them would surrender but you get my point. I think that is entirely feasible given the already degraded state of their air defenses, and tell the rest of the Russian forces in Ukraine we were picking a different spot tomorrow. The rest of the Russians would leave as fast as whatever they had can carry them. Putin can say he lost to NATO, and there are hopefully no nukes involved. Among other things it would save the lives of tens of thousands of Russian mobiks who are about to experience winter trench warfare. I am far more concerned about how six more months of war affects Ukrainian kids, but it is a valid point. I mean obviously this is the optimistic take on the scenario, but people on this board whose opinion I respect seem to think we are on a glide path to a really bright flash. If that analysis holds at some point it might be worth a gamble to get on a different track, apologies for the mixed metaphors, and a speculative idea.

I honestly think the Ukrainian's analysis is that having the best -ten percent of the Russian army pinned downed there bleeding while the Ukrainians put half to three quarters of their supplies at the bottom of the river is a winning situation. They are just stringing them along. Maybe they are waiting for something nice from lend lease to crush it properly? A hundred Abrams comes to mind...

I was trying not sob while I posted it...

No leaves on the ground, my guess is a spring picture.

No clue if it is correct, but it makes perfect military sense. The AFU broke through at Yampil, and then just kept looking for the least defend route that that would close the kessel. https://www.google.com/maps/place/Zarichne,+Donetsk+Oblast,+Ukraine,+84442/@49.0161988,37.9312226,8271m/data=!3m1!1e3!4m5!3m4!1s0x412079f65b9f1ead:0xc56df4da5ab3a046!8m2!3d49.0221765!4d37.9271382 If correct the AFU moved thru the less defensible terrain on the outskirts, and just left the harder ares in the Kessel. It implies to me they were armor heavy in the breakthru forces. They cleared the path it was the easiest for tanks to clear.

This is a hard watch....

My guess is that there is less to break on a T-62, and perhaps less to steal. At least there was less to steal that was worth more than the scrap metal price. And maybe some of the really old style seals and whatnot held up better in storage. Have there been any reports of a single hard to source part that is bad on the stored T-72s? it only takes one critical bit you can't replace.

So do you think NATO will try to preempt an actual launch? With either long range missiles, or Stealth aircraft? Try to take out Putin himself and hope the next guy is brighter?

Yes, but they are very enthusiastic about Siberian peasants doing the fighting. They seem to have completely different a view about loading their own rear ends in a fifty year old MTLB to charge AFU with Javelins.

Putin makes it ever clearer that the only thing worse than a bunch of smaller countries ruled by blood thirsty nut cases is one large country ruled by a blood thirsty nut case. Even our resident Eeyore, is now speaking of Ukrainian masterstrokes, that everything you need to know about this war. This is one of the lessons the game has taught me. Even huge initial advantages can be squandered if you are stupid. I refrain from the relevant meme per Steve's wishes. I love the little pro forma loyalty bit at the bottom. I bet they had a heck of a time finding new pants on the Kherson side. Aren't you cheery this morning. Hopefully he is in fact lurching towards a very special cup of tea.