Beeper

Ugh, this whole discussion line is starting to sound like info-nihilism, "we can't possible get any truth."  Which is almost always followed up by "so I will insert my own."
 

When the pandemic started I was tasked with a team to go off and do a quick and dirty study of the impact trends of pandemics across history and  then translate that into potential risks coming out of COVID.  We took about three months and I read more about pandemics than I ever wanted to know.  In the end we came up with a long list of repeated observable trends and then translated them into modern context.
The one thing I pulled from that experience is that every pandemic is the same, and every pandemic is unique.  They all follow similar impact patterns and trends, yet they all were unique in the context of the event and what followed was highly shaped by their context.  To my mind wars are exactly the same.  They are all the same, and they are all unique at the same time.  So while universal metrics exist they miss the context of the war in the time it happens and context matters very much.  So if you want to measure the impact of a war…study the damn war in detail and in context.  

Not just Prussian (German by this point) regulations. This is how every army worked pre-WW1. And it's mainly about maintaining command and control. There are no radios or modern NCO corps yet, and no one can shout loud enough for orders to be heard along the entire length of a company or even platoon that has deployed into skirmish line (squads exist at this point in time, but they aren't independent maneuver elements yet). And it isn't really considered possible to change direction while in skirmish line (you can try to make a company sized skirmish line turn, but it's gonna be ugly (just imagine 200 men in an extended order line trying to conduct a 90 (or 45, or any number) degree turn, especially when no one on the flanks as even heard the order)). So you march to your start line for the attack in close order, get faced in the right direction, and then deploy into skirmish line to conduct the attack.
Once a unit has deployed into skirmish line they can only move forward. Once they have made contact with the enemy they are now the "firing line" and the higher level commander has effectively lost all command and control over that unit until it has finished its attack. So the only further influence the commander has over the battle is in committing reserves to the firing line. Those reserves may be held back behind the next terrain feature in close order, or following a few hundred meters behind (in close order if it is considered safe enough, or in extended order if enough fire is still reaching them). It is considered preferable to commit the reserves to the flank of the existing firing line, making it longer and preventing units from getting mixed up. But the limited frontages available for the attack usually meant that it was more practical to merge the reserves into the existing firing line from behind. The downside to merging the reserves in behind the existing firing line is that there is no way to prevent the units from getting mixed up.
After the attack is completed everyone needs to be called back into close order so they can be reorganized and reoriented for their next orders. I conceptualize it as being pretty similar to how we use mechanized infantry (can the order get any closer than being crowded into the back of an armored vehicle?). Only "move mounted and fight dismounted" becomes "move in close order and fight in extended order". But, while in theory you should always fight in extended order, in practice a unit moving in close order may get surprised, or a commander trying to keep his unit controllable "just that little bit longer" may misjudge how far it is safe to stay in close order. 
Everyone with any sense (and not everyone had any sense) has figured out by this point in time that units are extremely vulnerable to fire while they are in close order, so should always be shaken out into extended order before making contact. But no one has figured out a system of command and control that can entirely dispense with close order formations just yet. I think the problem was that existing maneuver elements were just too big to be controllable or maneuverable while in extended order. Light machineguns will give squads enough firepower to be a useful maneuver element (10 men with bolt action rifles can't really generate enough firepower on their own to be useful), and the forging of a modern NCO corps gives armies a high enough density of leaders to make squads useable maneuver elements. Once the squad has become a useable maneuver element you finally have a formation that is small enough to easily change direction and hear the shouted commands of its leader while in extended order.
But I digress. There is a whole other thread for this.

It is one of the great shortfalls within the west - articulation of strategic ends.  I think when Ukraine wins or at least the final lines are drawn a true test of western unity will occur.  In my opinion as a min:
- Russian conventional forces must be pushed back out of Ukraine.  Russia needs to hold its sh#t together however it can post-war and we have to be ready to shape that if required.
- where the final lines are actually drawn should be an internal matter for Ukraine to sort out; however, a democratic process must be employed and some international support/oversight will likely be required.
- Russia must agree to regime change, war crimes prosecution and reparations before normalization with the west can occur.  This may not happen for a very long time given political realities in Russia, so buckle in we are likely in for a long haul.
- Ukraine’s security must be guaranteed.  Not some squishy Russian promises or weasely UN type of thing.  We are talking NATO for formal collective defence binding treaties.
- Ukraine must be rebuilt, they did the bleeding to blunt (and maybe break) Russia, western reconstruction in that country must be historic. Rebuilding also means economic agreements and long term sustainability.
- Russia must be 1) contained through strong military, diplomatic and economic deterrence, and 2) made more China’s problem than ours (so should North Korea for that matter. China wants to be a big boy, it needs to take responsibility and accountability for its power pole (lord knows the US has been wearing theirs for decades).
- The West needs to recognize the world that we are in, not the one we want.  Stop in-fighting and petty bickering, and defend the bloody international order like we mean it.  
Will we get all of these?  Seriously doubt it.  Should we be shooting for them, yes.
 

And there we have the perversity of war.  See my previous post - there is nothing good in this and as much as we would love to push the easy button and end this whole thing by next weekend…we are in the suck.  It is all bad and innocent people get to pay the price.  All war is personal…we very often forget that one.

That is exactly the plan from what we have seen so far.  A death by inches so that Russia can come to terms with it.  All war is negotiation and that also means the players must negotiate with themselves.  The fact that Ukrainians have to die to make this happen is something we had better not forget when it comes to guaranteeing their security and rebuilding their nation once this war is over.  We are killing Russia softly while Ukraine pays the bill and we owe them a lot for it.

it is the same video. Here are main points
Evkurov and Alekseyv are old farts who decide nothings Prig - they shoot at us, we down them and will down everybody you would send because you are hitting civilians. You just destroyed a bus with civilians. you have no conscience [looks like they talk about RU helicopter attacks. Everybody is calm, MOD guys are calm and curious] Evkurov [a bit confused] - it is first time i hear it and [inaudible - some thing like let us..interupted as Prig turns toward Alekseyev] Alekseyev [in hilariously theatrical way] - I am not going to talk to you! Prig [slightly confused and humiliated old man turn to Evkurov] We were talking using You [plural - respectable form] why we started using You [singular - not respectable form]. Why do you talk to me using You [singular]?  Evkurov [confused] Nobody talk [to you] like that. I say do not generalize. Do you talk [to me] using You [plural] Prig - Yes, I talk to you using You [plural] Evkurov - so if we say [inaudible] Prig nodes. Evkurov - Let's think what we should do Prig - One more time, we came here to get [saying a bit theatrical] a chief of general staff and Shoigu. While they are not here...  Alekseyev [theatrically joking] take/grab them [like saying they, people of RU MOD, do not need these two, so Prig is free to take them]  Prig - While they are not here, we stay here and [continue to] block Rostov Evkurov [absolutely calmly, softly and politely but bit confused]- then I would like to ask you to get your troops out [inaudible] Prig - No! No way. Guys will stay here.  Evkurov - We also from this point of view... Prig - We do interrupt you from controlling the troops [in the field] Evkurov - Yes, certainly you should not interrupt anybody from controlling the troops [inaudible] Prig [calmly] Guys are dying because you are pushing them to be meat  Evkurov pickups ringing phone while saying to Prig - This is a question... Prig - This is not rhetorical question, because you are pushing them to be meet... no ammo, no thinking, without any plans   Evkurov to phone - hallo, yes [listens a bit, then looks confused and cancels the call - looks like some jornos called him] Alekseyev [calmly] - the biggest thing that upsets me most [inaudible something like you give Kiev something to celebrate with champaign] Prig - Nothing to worry about Evkurov [calmly drinks hot tea as if they are at old farts gathering] Prig - party at Kiev with champaign happens when you abandon Izum, Lyman and everything else. That's when party at Kiev happens for a whole week. And we are not running away from anywhere [Says man who ran away from Bakhmut]. Tha't why we came here to stop the shame of the country we live in. This is first [I  wanted to say] Evkurov [a bit ashamed] - [iaudible] are you were at [or ours something] Prig - Certainly, Yes, for this we Evkurov - [iaudible] why questions [could be to us] Prig [getting agitated] - listen one more time, if we would talk in normal tone, we would not come here on tanks Somebody behind camera - [iaudible something about shells - you promised us shells] Evkurov - [iaudible something like - you think Shoigy and Gerasimov to blame?] Prig [satisfied] - Yes, absolutely right. We save Russia The whole performance remind me old farts from last coupe (GKCHP) in 1991. The old farts pretending they know what they are doing and serving as cover for Yetsin rise. 
 

I'm back. Week ago Kyiv and Kyiv oblast were under heavy attack of Shakheds. More than 30 in one launch. Alas at least five could breakthrough and hit several important substations in Kyiv, so our quarter for three days had only five hours with a power supply,mostly at the night. First day we also hadn't a water and heating. Latter was repaired on second day after the strike and this was in time,because we had -5 at that night. 
In other days electricity appeared some more, but anyway mostly at the nights or at the morning for 2-3 hours. So, we had opportunity to cook something and charge our phones. Several times we heated food in large can with dry spiritus and kept it in heating bateries. We were very angry, when have seen other districts around us with a light at the evening, but our several quarters were almost in full darkness.
Special thanks to Kinophile and other for notebook - it has powerful battery, so it's using as powerbank too ) 
Without electricity all cell towers around were either dead or had  so big abonents load, that internet almost didn't work. Sometime I cought Starlink, deployed by Emergency Service, but it was too far and connection was unstable - about 1-2 minutes. Single place,where I can catch cell phone internet was subway and streets, having power supply. But I had too much work out of my workshop, so almost hadn't time to track   news thoroughly.
At last at weekend, maybe in honor of Christmass our quarter got almost 24hours power 
Damn, I have to read a week of forum )

I am going to ignore most of your rant, frankly if anyone were to push that kind of hatred towards any other group they would get tossed off this forum pretty quickly; however, we live in odd times.  
The Russian military and political system are responsible for this war.  I have no doubt some of the population does as well; however to blame an entire people - who you don’t recognize as a people, yet point to them as an evil homogeneous empire that has been a threat for hundreds of years - down to many who have nothing to do with this or actively opposed it, nor had a say in it because Russia lacks a democratic system, is wrong on so many levels.
If in your fractured Russian scenario - the one you are promoting, and I notice no denial of you promoting cultural genocide either btw- Russian elderly, women and children show up on on your borders in a humanitarian crisis I expect you and your nation to be better than the a$$holes we are currently supporting your nation against.  If you cannot do that - and for the record I really do not believe you represent your nation - then why are we even bothering with this whole war?  If a post-war Ukraine is suppressing democracy in re-taken regions, actively supporting civil strife in former Russian fragments (which would have to be in your plan), and let potentially thousands of people die because of their ethnicity (oh wait Russian isn’t a thing, so, how will you tell who to keep out) - the what the hell are we defending here?
If we wanted a brutal regime in Ukraine to ignore human rights and suppress freedoms based on pseudo-ethnicity then why we didn’t we just sit back and let Russia take the damn place?
I stand with Ukraine in this war, but I do not stand with you on this.  We want a Ukraine with a fully functional democracy for all its citizens, a Ukraine that recognizes and operates under international law and respects human rights, regardless of who is suffering.  That is the Ukraine that gets into NATO/EU - with Hungarian arm twisting if need be.  That is the Ukraine we invest hundreds of billions in reconstruction. That is the Ukraine we support and enforce Russian accountability for.
Not whatever nightmare you are selling here.

Whoa there!  So I have taken a few days away because this great Russian offensive has taken on all the glam of watching a blind goat wooing a virgin armadillo.  So we are talking about that 7km "blitz" and a couple UA TD outfits bailing, right?  I mean did I miss the fall of Lviv or something?
So, I disagree that this is "strategic", hell it probably is not operational but we will see if the RA can actually advance more than 20kms before it runs out of gas.  We have been here before.  There was the terrible Izyum offensive that was poised to "pinch off and crush the UA defenders" in some sort of Failais Part Deux, which petered out to whatever that melanoma looking thing has become.  Then the imminent crossing of the S-D River, which turned out to be a catastrophe.  And now the Russians take 7km and we are at the End of Days?
"Imminent collapse" - how many times does this need to happen before people get the point?  The RA has already collapsed twice, strategically and operationally - even if I grant that the UA may have "collapsed" tactically at Popasna.  First was the RA collapse of an entire front in the North, we still remember that part right?  That was likely the turning point in this war and was a collapse by any standard.  Then we have seen another operational level collapse around Kharkiv, my understanding of military theory is that when you are the invader and have withdrawn until the enemy is at your border, things are not going well.
So the real question here is "can the UA do operational offensive?"  And the jury is still out to be honest.  That operation around Kharkiv (a much higher priority than the villages in the Donbas) demonstrated that the UA can re-take ground and pretty quickly.  How well the RA was dug in, how the UA did it and is it repeatable are the unknowns.
We have talked at length about the Russian problems defending a line approximately the same length as the Western Front with a fraction of the troops needed. The line density is something like 100 men per km with what they were showing, and that is stuffing the line with replacements straight from the recruiting depot.  I don't care what the Russian grandfathers were good at, there is a force-space reality here that is going to be impossible to make airtight without another 1 million men and the equipment to arm them.
Meanwhile Ukraine has a 3 month head start in mobilization, I personally think that the UA has more combat ready troops than the RA at the moment and everyday they are getting more with better equipment.  While Russia continues its downward spiral economically and militarily.
As to post-ceasefire (if it happens - Ukraine is signaling the other way, and losing a few dozen kms in the Donbas is likely not to break a nation who had guns within range of its capital) - we had better be ready to pony up and re-build Ukraine a la Marshal Plan, or there was no point in the sunken costs.  Re-building national infrastructure will likely sustain the Ukrainian economy in the short to middle term, in the long term private industry will show up because they are a greedy bunch and this is a market filled with US greenbacks for reconstruction.  We need a functional and well defended Ukraine very badly right now because it will mean the "global order" won this war, and we are willing a pay a lot to ensure that happens (or should be).  We need a bright and shiny Ukraine as a demonstration that the Western based global order still works.  This needs to be a lesson for Russia, and more so for China that we will not let the pen that writes the rules go easily.  If we fail, then we deserve what happens next.