panzermartin

Yes of course! I was partly joking. But since this is repeated very widely, I will take the chance to note that this started before WW2 and before Nazi Germany revealed its full Nazi potential and intensions, also fooling the Soviets and then invading them to their big shock. Many people bring this to paint a Nazi brotherhood tone on the Soviets but it was more of a pseudo-deal somewhat reminscent to 1918s Brest-Litovsk but of course with the shameful Poland grab. Remember even Ghandi thought Hitler was cool back then, among many many others that didnt favor the British rule.

Crazy and hilarious stuff but since the 50s we have been reading comics, Marvel, Captain America, and watching so many other movies with insane plots of Russian, German, Chinese, Arab baddies getting trashed that it's only natural that someone thought to fill the gaps from the opposite side. Even mainstream Top Gun 2 narrates a strike inside a "Pariah state" that kinda resembles Iran, with Su 57s and F14s. With ala Death Star final run heheh. And it's currently a massive box office hit I might add. And let's not forget the first that tossed the idea is siding with Nazi Germany against the "common enemy" was Patton himself Still, those books are in a very bad taste, but interesting to see the subculture side of Russian propaganda.

Thanks for the insight and I get your points. I sincerely hope for better days for Turkey. I wouldn't want to see them cornered or collapsing, I won't take any joy in that, in fact I find it dangerous. Regardless of the islamist delirium, do you think Turkey is destined to expand westwards as it always pursued. I almost understand the need of Turkey for more access to the sea and in a perfect world where everyone would behave fair, we could probably share the energy wealth of the aegean. That would be beneficial for both, while excluding 3rd parties. But I'm not sure Turkey will stop there if it had the might and the way to go unpunished. So far we are avoiding escalation like the plague, we don't even intercept UAV that loiter over the islands. I sincerely hope there are no thoughts of provoking Turkey for short sighted political gains. That would be silly on our part as we bet a lot on international sympathy and support.

Europe has been an island of normality and peace for decades. There are flaws but I think it does so many things better, especially welfare, healthcare, protection of smaller family business, culture, strict environmental rules etc... We are willing to fight for this but I hope this war won't change things for the worse.

Thanks, seems the Dutch aid didn't get that much media attention.

I can't believe we are bullying Poland, the country that has supported the most and beyond its abilities the Ukrainians so far both in military and humanitarian aid. So, what wealthy Netherlands has done so far for Ukraine? Only piece I could find is " limited number of howitzers" J/k of course but let's put the pressure on the bigger players. On a serious note, does really the Dutch army has only 18 MBTs as Wikipedia implies ?

It's true that every war, occupation and colonization brings developments in infrastructure, governing model, cultural additions, lots of good things as well. The Romans also invaded Britain and brought some good things too, walls, forts, aqueducts, ways to count etc. Even Brittania was a word of theirs. One can say it was in a way part of the evolution of human race. But you wouldn't want the Romans above your head all the time, would you? . It still was an occupation that involved a lot of violence, suppression and humiliation of natives. Colonial powers didn't set those countries free because they matured but because there were bloody unrests and weren't strong enough anymore to handle them . Cricket and driving on the left is fine but they had been also killing people as recently as in the late 50s in Cyrpus for instance... https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/world/2022/may/07/tortured-to-death-the-14-cypriot-men-killed-by-british-in-50s-uprising

I'm not sure we can, at least with WW2 in mind. History shows we need Ivan to balance the system. It's like removing the Orca killer whales from the ocean because they are hostile. But they also keep an eye on the sharks. Now who is the dolphin...

I *sincerely* hope Germany has closed its circle as a military bully. Unfortunately to quote Heraclitus, "everything flows" so we cant predict the future and the conditions. But I would fear more if there is no Russia anymore to counter them on June 2041

Yes, but how about a laptop that he can play newest CM titles on, or a demanding FPS

https://www.ekathimerini.com/news/1186488/erdogan-issues-threat-of-military-force/ The "we will come one night" was posted by his party spokesman actually, I got it mixed. by https://www.keeptalkinggreece.com/2022/06/09/erdogan-threatens-greece-islands-demilitarization-not-joking/

How about the other way around, not necessarily taking actions that are aligned with this country. We don't necessarily have to exclude them when interests are mutual but not necessarily comply when interests are conflicting. Yes the sub deal was a punch below the waist, and a reminder that a powerful country (even on the same side) needs to be contained from time to time. Yes let's not fool ourselves. Behind every pact there is a lot of business involved...But it certainly is much more than that, we have been buying French Mirages and a lot of other stuff decades now, so it's nothing new.

Well times have changed since Macron brought that up, and this conflict created some very loud developments, like the massive rearming of the Bundeswehr. We don't have a EU army yet but for a start Greece has already signed a mutual defense pact with France : https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/greece-france-defence-pact-protects-against-third-party-aggression-greek-pm-2021-10-07/

Though there is truth in this, it's a very pessimistic prediction. Remember people were saying the same things for the economic union and common currency. Despite the flaws we can overcome the problems and find some unity. As Europeans do we forever have to rely militarily on a Patron from the other side of the Atlantic? I don't think so. We can of course always cooperate but we have to grow some self esteem on that matter.

https://www.turkishdefencenews.com/largest-military-exercise-of-the-turkish-army-in-years-efes-2022/ Infront of NATO officials in the biggest exercise of invading a "random island" with participation of most NATO members, Erdogan spoke about how seriously he is about the status quo of the aegean islands and how "they will come suddenly one night". Yes a joke.

In an ideal world countries wouldn't need defensive pacts or militaries to feel safe. I know many people here are on the payroll of militaries and wouldn't agree. I'm just an art guy though so I can speak disconnected from this reality. Certainly this war has been a huge setback on the road to a peaceful future and our options are not that many anymore. If I really had to chose an alternative I would vote for a EU military pact . It makes sense that countries that share a common economy policy and currency to have a unified military and strategy. NATO is too widespread and we have troubles. How Turkey for instance is considered a key member while acting rogue and getting away with it. Or EU distancing itself from the more aggressive strategy of US (that is acting from safe waters ) in Ukraine due to energy necessities etc. In any case we are preparing here for a "hot" summer. Erdogan has even discovered Turkish minorities in Kos and Rhodes (he means the tourists I guess? ) and we are not sensing much support from our allies despite giving everything to NATO, having numerous US bases, investing a lot of money in western hardware despite our fragile economy...The moment of truth might come soon and then we will certainly have a verdict if NATO has been a joke we couldn't get all these past years.

But what are the feelings towards NATO nowadays in Turkey. From the rhetoric of Erdogan and his ministers towards Greece, (for the first time it feels like we are really on the brink of war sadly ), to the bipolar stance in the Ukraine war, the S400, and the invasions of Syria., it looks like Turkey doesn't feel to belong there and has a different future vision, that of an independent regional superpower.

No disrespect taken, I get your points. Yes it's no surprise that Russia is a threat to its neighbors, every big power has historically been. But in the grand scale Russia is still the minor player,with little influence beyond its borders.

I've been saying this since forever. Just the memories of WW2 are enough to go paranoid . They are probably serious when talking about Nazis although we might find this paranoic.

You see, here is where I disagree with your whole post. NATO is not United Nations . NATO serves a post modern colonialism in disguise. It's a defensive pact only in paper. But it actually serves the interests of the big players. Energy, strategic, weapons sales etc. We think world has changed but the time frame is miniscule, it's only a generation since the colonial era. We are driven by capitalism and not values. Otherwise we wouldn't allow Turkey in, we wouldn't equip Saudi Arabia and all those countries that violate basic human rights. NATO is like the NRA that claims we will stop shootings by arming the lawful citizens.

I don't consider myself the most pro russian guy but I can see why Russia feels threatened. Its not irrational, lets be honest. On paper NATO is a defensive organization but its members have conducted and have been involved in the most wars and invasions since the end of WW2. Mainly US. NATO offcially has also intervened violently, bombing in the Balkans, Libya and waged war on Afghanistan for 20 years. So not a strictly defensive pact per se. The other most important member of NATO, (once Great) Britain, has been a colonial force for centuries, occupying and looting countries at will, and only recently has withdrawn from most of its distant colonized lands. Not a great record to be honest. France is not lagging that far behind on that matter and Germany has the most dark recent past of all of them and a special wound with Russia. So, yes not that aggressive anymore, but not a great criminal record if you want them for neighbours. US, the flagship and mastermind of NATO, has bypassed UN council to invade sovereign states like Iraq with false pretext of WMD and has 750 military bases around the globe, thousands of miles beyond its borders. Its military spending is 10x times more than the second on the list. An alien observer coming from space would argue that these guys with the stars and stripes are everywhere, how can they complain of expansionism of others? Russia is not nervous of NATO but of US army presence so close to its vital routes. Imagine a US base in Sevastopol (again distance from home: https://www.google.com/search?q=sevastopol+distance+from+US&oq=sevastopol+distance+from+US&aqs=chrome..69i57j33i160l2.9435j0j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8 ) completly blocking Russia way out to Bosporus and Mediterranean Sea. In this story Russians might seem the bad guys and we would probably not want to see them reaching the polish borders but from their POV and as an entity , they have probably sound reasons to not want NATO(US) presence that close to their home. This regardless of what we feel is moral or not.

Thanks, interesting read. He sounds a little optimistic on the resources of the russian army but given the hoaxes we ve been fed from the early days of this war, about russian shortages in gas or long range missiles (and until today already 2000 plus fired) he might be somewhere in the middle of truth. I think he is right on the artillery duels outcome. Unless something dramatic happens Russia has the upper hand on this. So it's possible that the Russians might reach Dnipro river from Donbas after all by Autumn. I suspect the Ukrainians defensive lines past Kramatorsk and Slavyansk are not well prepared or deep enough and the terrain there doesn't offer much advantage with sparse and smaller settlements. The winter pause will be critical. If the West goes full steam, Russia will probably collapse under pressure and under a new offensive from a re equipped and well trained UA army. But a stalemate along Dnipro seems more probable, as I'm not sure the West will be decisive in providing more and more weapons as time goes by and the situation is more defined.

We have a good variety of tracked and wheeled assets but unfortunately we rely on ancient M113s, BMP1s and undereqquiped Leonidas for the APC role. Marders could fit the bill there. I wonder if the M1117 (we have over 1000s of them) could support that role too apart from patrolling, they are well armored and nimble, perfect for island terrain ( but lack firepower I think.)

I guess if Ukrainians were to chose they would probably prefer their all familiar BMPs at this moment as time is of the essence. But we can't just leave the islands without at least a symbolic mechanized counterattacking force, especially this summer where we fear something bad is about to happen. That being said, Marders are not state of the art either, it's a 70s design, carry less troops and their 20mm ammunition is in shortage. Their state is unknown, apart from around 30 in working condition , Rheinmetall will need some time to service the rest back to 100% before handing them to Gr Army.