panzermartin

Yes I understand the change that brought and the unseen before capabilities they bring to the Ukrainians. Russians really felt it no doubt. But I was thinking that so far it's still like the German wunderwaffe equivalent. Me 262, V2 were unmatched but not in sufficient numbers to alter the actual strategic balance. In my opinion Ukraine faces a gigantic challenge of training and shifting its army in a few months from Soviet to NATO, while constantly under russian harassment and manpower bleed. I think this hasn't happened before in history? But you could probably prove me wrong. Russia is still firmly occupying a large part of Ukraine, its still destroying UA assets and infrastructure each passing day, and every new territory gained is hard to take back with no proper combined arms units. Important :The only side that has demonstrated ability to conduct a successful (albeit a costly one) combined arms offensive and grab land is Russia. The Himars are great but they feel like partisan actions and the tactical plan on which they are presumably connected (Kherson offensive) is not yet in sight. Russia will find some workarounds with the storage ultimately unless they utter competent and living in a different planet, the one that noone has long range missiles to hit them back. I guess they were living in that planet for some months now. I disagree though that every russian strike so far is spray and pray. They have fired thousands of Kalibrs, Iskanders, airborne missiles etc with (not US/NATO standard) but very decent accuracy . Apart from the dumb mass arty they love so much for its simplicity, they still do have a superior ability to accurately reach long range targets compared to Ukraine with a variety of air, ground and naval platforms.

So, yeah, practically without the superior intel US provides the difference wouldn't be that big. I'm not sure RU sat are that primitive though, they have been tracking weapon delivery from Poland to Ukraine and hitting them with Kalibr for months now. Unless they more rely on spies for up to date info. Its a mystery though if all those thousand of strikes did anything, as Ukraine never reveals anything of storaged destroyed equipment. If hypothetcally it was Ukraine hitting for months with all these weapons aided by US intel, Russia would have no army left.

Isn't a little truth in there. 155 aren't the game changers that was hoped in those numbers provided to Ukraine. And I was wondering there are also Soviet guided MLRS that can hit warehouses and command posts already in extreme long ranges , what is so much special about Himars.

This techinque of damaging the bridge but not taking it down ahead of an offensive reminds of gamey tactics players are using in Company of Heroes bringing the bridge health bar to a minimum and waiting the right moment to blow it up (Usually when enemy tanks are rolling over it.) Shame on gamey Ukrainians. And I just came to realize that wargames are way too serious and actual war is more gamey. (I mean dropping grenade from a commercial drone in a T-72 driver's hatch or blowing up an S-300 with an AK?)

He is really running out of options indeed. Its going to be a long year for our neighborhood too.

I wonder Iran facing the danger of war with Israel and US, would be really reluctant to provide these. Although it seems its producing them in big numbers. The visit seems bigger than just drones, otherwise he wouldnt go in person I think. Turkey is also involved and this is a bit worrying.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/cargo-plane-crashes-near-greeces-northern-city-kavala-2022-07-16/ There are speculations that final destination could be Ukraine. Serbia is also selling arms to UA but secretly as it is a long Russia ally. First they said it was heading to Jordan, then Bangladesh. But why an Ukrainian plane with 8 Ukrainian crew members would be busy in times of war, transporting soviet compatible ammo to Bangladesh.

I was thinking Putin being a child of the Soviet Union, raised in the ruins of Leningrad, and getting older, maybe thought this was his chance to relive the glory of the Red Army and all the epic stories he was raised with. He wanted to relive Bagration or operation Uranus. He had all the wealth a child coming from a poor family could ever wish for, so decided to gamble for the last trophy and not withdraw as the Tsar who completely lost control of Ukraine and handed it over to the West. I think there was a lot of emotion in this decision. Despite not going as planned in the first place, whenever he appears he looks strangely happy and fulfilled like this war was his destiny and he is enjoying the historical moments.

RU airpower is underachieving for months but it will be a difficult problem to solve when UKR will attempt to go on the offensive. Even gunships can safely hover in ambush positions, waiting for advancing troops to get in the kill box, while their AA assets are still lagging behind.

Apparently this is from Kherson area , arty responding to UKR attempted advances there. It looks they are at least able to harass the treelines accurately, and reproduce this CM like linear barrage pattern with what looks like rocket artillery. Note: Turn the sound off

F...K Its insane the ammount of ammo they are throwing away. But who can stay sane under such barrage? I'm wondering, apart from mass dumb artillery, dont the Russians have more special "sniper" arty units , that use Krasnopol rounds for instance. Or their doctrine relies only on GPS missiles for accuracy.

Not only the RU side though. The timing is mutual, maybe some suspect where this is going anyway https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/new-york-city-nuclear-attack-b2120790.html

Talking about guns is cool but the real trouble for most of us in EU has only began https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2022/jul/12/euro-dollar-parity-russia-gas-ftse-stock-markets-recession-strikes-business-live Slightly off topic, seems what Turkey hopes to achieve by letting Finland and Sweden in is still far away, the F16 deal will probably get blocked for a start. Even Jewish organizations join the fight now. https://www.google.com/amp/s/newsbulletin247.com/politics/132364.html%3famp=1

Yes I'm seeing some same results lately. I had almost 25 APCs/MBT and Abrams were picking them one by one, like an invisible ghost. Open hatches, 500m distance didnt really matter. They couldnt spot a 70 ton tall monster. This is seriously funny.

Thank you for the replies. I was suspecting the maintencance issue has also to do with the more pressure UKR has to put on less guns to cope with RU arty. M777 fairs better with a steady slow RPM (2 per minute if wiki is correct)

Are Ukrainians happy with the 777 so far? I've read conflicting reports that a lot of are out of action at the moment due to wear, maintenance, or enemy fire. The latter its hard to confirm as there are non existent visual clues and the russian videos are of bad quality.

Yes I thought garages could pose some practical problems in general. But if everything goes boom might be a desperate measure. Now I think I'm going to google the way Vietkong built all those underground facilities that were immune to arty and air attacks.

Yes, it's prime strength is not penetration it seems. it would be interesting to see if the Russians can come out with a solution on this or they don't have a clue.

I guess, unless they have zillions of ammo and they don't care, they should at least try to hide them somehow. On the other hand we probably don't get a clear picture of the material losses from distant fires and columns of smoke. (they might not be as huge )

Good points. Yes, it makes perfect sense thanks for the insight. I was wondering whether the HIMARS has a penetrating mod, in my mind most MRLS are "soft" explosives. And I rembered the theater in Mariupol that people hidden in the lower basement survived a direct hit from aircraft strike iirc.

Will facilities like underground parking lots in malls etc be enough to stop arty and MLRS from hitting storage. I doubt there are so many and large enough in eastern Ukraine though...

If I were a prisoner and get drafted in the fight I would propably organize with others and try to escape towards the enemy lines with the first chance and probably earn my life and freedom. And that's a plot worth a movie I think

How sizeable do you think these forces are inside Russia? They can make a whole secondary army for instance? If they are not that many its not that big deal.

I don't think BFC has complete control over steam sales. They have their own algorithm there. It's rather unfair of you to blame the developers.

Yes, probably for joining a US team too. I don't think though he will end up in Donbas.