panzermartin
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Posts posted by panzermartin
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15 minutes ago, The_Capt said:
The presence of something that looks like RA BMD is a pretty good sign that the Russians are worried. Not sure where you are getting “slower than a V2”, it’s terminal velocity was around 800 m/s as well (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/V-2_rocket). Regardless, not a BMD expert but I do know that you try and hit them going up, at very high altitude near apex, because hitting them coming down is incredibly hard.
Yes, it's more like similar correct, I read that wrong.
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33 minutes ago, Elmar Bijlsma said:
The SAMs are exploding in the same place. They are sending them up on a pre-set in the hope the explosion does something. What you are seeing cannot credibly be called air defence, it is impotent flailing at an enemy they cannot not touch or even see.
You could be right but there are some really big booms as well up there, not something an AA missile would produce. They have claimed to have shot down quite a few, but they are probably exaggerating. But we are also exaggerating that HIMARS is invincible to AD systems that have proved to intercept similar RU missiles when in UKR service. HIMARS is actually slower than a WW2 V2 (but a smaller target )
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3 hours ago, Haiduk said:
Antonivskyi bridge in Kherson under HIMARS attack. Russian AD tries to intercept missiles, but several missiles hit the bridge
When the bridge was hit for the first time, I remember no active AD. Now I see a lot intercepts (not sure if every boom though is a kill). Seems RU are more aware now of the threat and probably a little more capable to shoot down HIMARS?
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Impressive strike. Could the simultaneous detonations indicate some behind the lines job taking advantage of the looser summer vibe in the peninsula? I have seen the HIMARS strikes and they are always sequential, unless you can program two or more missiles to hit the same time. Russians continue to deny to take this war as seriously as it is and I'm not talking only about the crimean tourists. Even those people in swimming suits might have guessed this is not a special operation anymore.
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Yes, that must have been stressful for RU wondering what new western toy will land on their heads each different week.
I don't know if Ukraine has a time limit as well, as there are domestic and international conditions in play that are not very clear yet but certainly Russia is the one in more hurry.
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Just now, Huba said:
I'd agree with that. What is worth noting is that UA forces (at which we mostly lack visibility, and rightly so) must be big enough as a force in being to warrant the accumulation of RU units there. Question is, could RU withstand just sitting there under HIMARS fire, facing increasing UA forces, would their morale allow for that? Or will they have to keep attacking to sustain their momentum?
My guess is that RU are not there to forever stand still and defend until UKR has tank divisions and a pile of HIMARS. They will probably move first. At the same time any major offensive against a presumably big UA force could spin into a disaster that could cost them Kherson sooner. A tricky situation.
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Kherson offensive won't happen any time soon I think . If at all. They are indeed keeping RU forces pinned there with the eternal threat of a counter hoping to relieve other sectors or baiting them to attack first . Some signs were too obvious like the mailed instructions to citizens there...seriously?
Ukraine can't materialize a counterattack plan with at least local arty superiority or enough mechanized forces.
In fact RU forces there are more likely to start moving towards Mikolayev either to put an end to the continuous threat, or just by resuming the initial plan towards Odessa. And maybe that's Ukraine best chance, repel the attack and then hopefully counterattack in a more favorable fluid situation.
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2 minutes ago, Letter from Prague said:
You know, "us made russia / china do it" is for sure going to be popular with tankies whenever russia or china do anything. Thats how tankies work. It is a common rhetoric.
Personally I just caught up with the thread an am more saddened by some people being more upset by russian soldier being mistreated by the bus driver than they were by russia torturing and murdering pows.
What is a tankie? Mistreating or killing POWS in times of wars like this, is absolutely no surprise sadly. Its a reality but even the good guys commit such crimes on and off the record. But treating your own helpless people like s*** in everyday life hits a different chord.
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I made an observation. That the timing is not right. We have been skeptical here about the possibility of China entering this "challenge US dominance" battle in a more drastic way. And we agree we are not fans of this prospect for various reasons, mainly economic.
China still sees US as the daughter of the British Empire. In a sense they are right. Like the British, they also have a big Navy that is constantly on World tour. Taiwan is a very sensitive case and not an arena for personal political gains.
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Pelosi might have pushed China more decisively to the side of Russia. The visit was an unnecessary move and not that smart amidst Ukraine war. China hasn't assisted openly Russia so far but now the mood is changing rapidly and I'm not seeing it reversing.
Unless I'm not aware US has decided now is the best chance for them to confront both of their rivals ala WW2. Militarily China is not ready yet to challenge them , so there is a window of opportunity.
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3 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:
some more special deliveries to Ukraine
The bottom picture is from March I think and according to a comment the plant got hit by kalibrs 24h after this post?
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1 hour ago, Grigb said:
Map of Pisky
Probably not the right time to say this, but Pisky would make an ideal CMBS map
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14 minutes ago, dan/california said:
On one level I agree with you, and on one level I am for ANYTHING that make Russian recruitment harder. Wide circulation of this video would seem to really help the latter.
Hmm maybe wide circulation will have the same effect Haiduk noted. But being Russia maybe nothing happens after all...
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8 minutes ago, Haiduk said:
In Ukraine sometime happened this incidents. Sometimes pro-Russian (or just cheapskate) drivers of private buses rejected to to bring onboard servicemen or veterans for free despite they have legal benefits. "Let the state pays me for you!", or "I didn't send you there!" or "You was killing children and olds on Donbas!" (yeah, even this sometime can hear even in western Ukraine!). Usually solution of such incidents very fast - video or photo in social network, friends of soldier and civil activists came to driver and force him to apologize. Sometime with "fist profilactic". After this public resonance the owner in 99,9% fires such driver.
And rightly so. Regardless of side is a disrespect to human life and suffering.
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16 minutes ago, Markus86 said:
Yes, totally. I mean he delivered a completely understandable explanation. Ukrainian nazis eat children. So he had to go there and fight them.
Yes a 20yr old brainwashed who got drafted must be punished and humiliated like that after all. Because losing your legs is not enough punishment. Would you say the same for the unfortunate hitlerjugend kid with the panzerfaust that got crippled fighting the commies and the " red hordes" . I bet no.
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Maybe an example of the sheeps russians are then, they didnt question the authority (driver) and nobody came in the defense of the disabled. Pathetic.
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15 minutes ago, FancyCat said:
Jeez. I mean one person being ****ty does not make a trend but goddamn, I'm not sure why they couldn't take him.
Where is that? Kherson, or Russia? This is really sad and sorry the driver is an inhuman piece of meat no matter what the unfortunate soldier was involved in.
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55 minutes ago, Grigb said:
Sort of. Swift defeats inflicted upon RU prepared ARM armed forces made RU extremely caution of AZER forces prepared by Turkey. It was so unexpected that I believe Ru high command was frozen for some time. Given their eyes were already set on UKR they preferred to stay away and not to embroil in conflict where their humiliation was possible.
I see, that explains some things. But there can been also part 2 in this. Turkey is also on a crucial turning make or break point in its history that will affect support in these regions.
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12 minutes ago, Zeleban said:
Shortly before the collapse of the USSR, there were no signs of its imminent collapse. In Ukraine in 1991, there were many supporters of Ukraine being part of the USSR (my grandparents are a good example of this, I'm sure this applies to most of the older generation of the USSR).
Nagorno-Karabakh strongly influences the internal state of Russia also in the sense that the Armenians make up a significant and very influential part of Russian society (take at least such propagandists as Simonyan and Keosayan). The loss of Karabakh by Armenia is a very heavy blow for them (at least the Armenian diaspora of Ukraine experienced this event very hard)
This is the only possibility I guess. With no visible cracks suddenly to fall apart like the pressure cooker Grigb repeats. I can't predict this.
I'm curious why Russia didn't intervene at all in the Karabach if this was a national security issue. It was another sign of increasing weakness?
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3 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:
Is this still about your doubts about how important ethnic/regional problems are for Russia and how likely it is there will be areas of the current Russian Federation that breakaway along those lines? I really don't know why you're stuck with that, especially when the evidence is pretty clear that you're thinking is historically off the mark.
To prove my point... which of these traditional Tzarist Russian regions, which were part of the Soviet Union, refused to be a part of the Russian Federation?
Kazakhstan
Uzbekistan
Turkmenistan
Kyrgyzstan
Tajikistan
Georgia
Armenia
Chechnya
Dagestan
Latvia
Lithuania
EstoniaYes, all of them. Now, what is the common theme for all of these 10s of millions of people opting to abandon hundreds of years of shared history with Russia when it was too weak to stop them from leaving? Let me give you a small hint... it begins with "E" and ends with "thnicity"
I'm curious what your theory is that precludes this from happening again when Russia is, once again, too weak to do anything about it. Because so far you haven't put forth anything tangible.
Steve
My theory is that the melting point of these breakaway republics is past its date. It was in 1991 and the fall of the Soviet Union.
You brought some valid points about current culture diversity in Russia but still that's not enough to suggest that there is desire to cut the umbilical cord. Until we see hints of unrest and another color revolution the core of the russian ethnos remains no less firm than UK and US. Actually maybe more. UK aka GB has lost huge areas the last centuries and let's remind ourselves almost half of the Scots voted recently for independence. I frequent a bar here owned by a Scotsman friend that totally hates English rule and so do the other Scots and Irish people drinking there. (Yes and every Scottish beer >Those weak tea flavored ales
) The decision of Brexit against the desires of these populations and the economic deterioration will only make this worse. But I bet they still have good chances to stay together despite all the historical vendetta.
I think most predict this event along a catastrophic collapse for Russia. Well it's one of the possible outcome of this war. But we are very early in this war to tell.
The example that was brought here with Nagorno Karabakh is not an ethnic russian issue. In fact Russia showed very little desire to assist there, that could possibly indicate some behind the scenes deal with Turkey involved.
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6 minutes ago, sburke said:
no but Russia was the guarantor for their security. Azerbaijan seems to be taking advantage of Russian preoccupation with Ukraine. This is a further reduction of Russian influence in the Caucasus and one of the main beneficiaries is Turkey.
For sure Russia is distracted with Ukraine, but Azerbaijan conducted their major attack in 2020 well before the current events.
Also, in this case we have probably Turkey acting behind the scenes.
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2 hours ago, dan/california said:
Convenient timing, yes?
Nagorno Karabakh it's not really Russia isn't it.
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25 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:
He is Tatar, so there is a lot personal crusade element in his posts. On the other side, this view (of ethnic minorities in Russia) is rarely present in western discourse. It is better to compare most RUS minorities to USA native populations, though.
I would be very very cautious about predicting any cracks in Russia along ethinc lines except maybe Dagestani/Chechen pockets in North Caucasus (where religious self-identification comes into play as well). USSR did a solid job at mixing everything in giant pot, and most of these peoples didn't have their own polities or have them too short to mean anything. They are generally sparsely populated, dependant on Moscow in most financial aspects, have close to zero chances to survive alone etc. But most of all, they are Russians too.
So if anybody expects Syberian Bolivar to appear- well, there are several good alternative history books with that theme...
This.
I'm constantly reading here about predictions on Russia breaking up in an ethnic puzzle and I have my scratching head moments.
Why a group of russian speaking people depending on the hand that feeds to survive , will somehow have the desire to go autonomous in the middle of nowhere.
This could only had a chance to happen with external intervention and support from another country but this is Tom Clancy material as well.
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There is also a history of chinese involvement in Serbia since the 90s. I still remember the Belgrade chinese embassy that was deliberately bombed by NATO, as Serbs were supposedly hosting there comms. Some months ago the landing of multiple giant Chinese cargo planes with weapons in Belgrade, was a surprising act. If something happens there I suspect it's not only Russia involved.
How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?
in Combat Mission Black Sea
Posted
According to UA sources, many missiles have been intercepted, among them even hypersonic Iskanders
https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3424781-ukrainian-armed-forces-shoot-down-iskander-missile-near-kramatorsk.html