Jump to content

panzermartin

Members
  • Posts

    2,277
  • Joined

  • Last visited

Posts posted by panzermartin

  1. 16 minutes ago, JonS said:

    Asymmetric economic warfare? Cheap missiles shot down by expensive interceptors = win. Any actual damage on the ground is a bonus?

    If Ukrainians spend 2-4 expensive missiles per hit, probably yes. I have no idea what is the ratio. I wouldn't call these missiles cheap though. Except the Shaheds probably. 

     

     

    10 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

    I don't think Kh-101, Iskander, Kinzhal and now Zirkon are cheap. Add here wasting of resources of Tu-95, fuel for them, etc. Attack on Kyiv about week ago, when 30 missiles were shot down cost Russia 390 millions USD with around zero effect. Yes, we spent 4 PAC-3 interceprors and about three dozens of NASAMs/IRIS, but I doubt it equal to Russian attacking means cost and completely can't be comparable with economical and military losses if all these missiles hit own targets. 

    Could truth lie in the middle? Maybe Russians get more hits than Ukrainian mods says. 

    Or the Russians are reporting to their superiors that the strikes are mostly successful and they dully repeat every day and no one dares to object. 

    Though they do seem to respect and invest effort in countering AD, with decoys, misleading paths, flares fitted to missiles etc...

  2. 11 minutes ago, Butschi said:

    Whether this is their intention or not, they do it like in WW2: One thing that the bombing campaigns were effective at was keeping the Luftwaffe busy defending the cities instead of contesting the frontlines. Ukraine has to commit Patriots et al. defending the cities instead of shooting down Russian aviation near the front.

    Yes that could make sense. 

    Especially paired with the fact that before the re-surge of Kiev bombings a lot of Su 34s were lost, apparently to Patriots moved closer to the Frontline. 

    Now the pressure is back on the capital. 

     

  3. The video of Shaman's song seems like recorded one afternoon with a smartphone. 

    The melody, could be one generic already orchestrated DAW file sitting in his hard disk. 

    Lyrics are nothing special. 

    Yes this can come out in day if you are driven and focused (or Kremlin funded!) 

    But Alternatively he could go for a more bootleg live and unplugged version for authenticity (and conspiracytheoristproof) 

  4. Some things I wonder about.

    If the russian raids are that bad and 95% of missiles are intercepted why Russia keeps targeting Kiev and wasting valuable ordnance that could be used on the battlefield for instance. 

    They estimate that they will expend and reach the breaking point of Ukrainian AD at some calculated point? 

    Why they have allowed after years so many working AD batteries. Patriots are static on defense, they are large systems that can be spotted and tracked. They have numerous spies on the ground. Why one morning not launch a massive strike exclusively on two batteries for instance. 

    Lastly, Is it unrealistic to employ high flying Tupolevs with glide bombs against AA batteries? 

  5. 13 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

    Maybe you will be surprised, but even in Ukraine enough people continue to listen Russian rap, rock, watch their movies etc even these groups or artists openly supoprted the war. "I just like them, music/cimema is over the war and policy". These speeches you can hear even among UKR soldiers

    Do you think that there is a percentage of Ukrainians (not LNR, DPR) that avoid conscription because they don't want to participate in war with Russia out of some kind of connection or sympathy with them. (not necessarily political) Though I understand any sympathy after two years of torture and death is non existent. 

    I can't grasp how tragic this war of extinction is, between these once closely related countries. 

    Sometimes I wonder, can we all turn out like these, towards our neighbours, we now chat and laugh with, given the circumstances. 

  6. 33 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

    No, it makes ABSOLUTELY NO SENSE that this was connected to Ukraine.  This is how dumb conspiracy theories get started.  Please stop contributing to it.

    As with other totally lazy and counter factual theories, yours misses the fact that the world is rather complicated.  Why would ISIS be doing something in Russia and not Gaza?  Some possibilities:

    1. ISIS has nothing to do with this and is just trying to take credit to make itself seem relevant again.
    2. A local group came up with the idea and someone within that group has ties to ISIS, so he made a phone call and ISIS said "that sounds great!  We've got some money and a planning guy we can send your way, as long as we get to take credit for it".
    3. ISIS has tried, or is trying, to do something within Israel but it's really difficult to do because a) ISIS has absolutely no history of being organized enough to do squat against Israel and b) Israel's security services, while not perfect, are pretty good.
    4. ISIS has been planning this attack for more than a year, therefore it was well in motion before Gaza happened.  What do you think ISIS would do, CANCEL the attack on Moscow because they need to do something in Gaza?  Hardly.

    Look, those are 4 logical and plausible explanations as to why this is ISIS.  They weren't difficult to come up with, but if you don't even try to look you won't see even the most obvious things staring you in the face.

    Steve

    Sure makes sense Russia is more prone to these kind of attacks now, all busy with the war effort. 

    But ISIS has been an obscure organization that at some point of its life even received training and funding and even western weapons from various sides. They nearly defeated Russian backed Assad. So yes, they can be manipulated to serve supreme forces in their powerplay like other terror groups in the past. Used and then discarded. There are also probably more players than NATO/Ukraine that want to see Russia dragged in a second front. 

    And as you say, we really have no clue what ISIS stands for anymore. It could be a random office in some desert that "buys" terror attacks just to keep the brand/funding going. That doesn't make this attack "more Isis" but more of a 3rd party operation. 

    The fact that these guys got so easily arrested and made no final stand makes them look less like the usual jihadist radicals. No Allah akbar no fight till death. Did this for 5k? Weird. Unless this arrest is all staged of course, and the real shooters are heading for some Stan now. 

     

     

     

     

     

  7. 5 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

    Again, not sure why he needs something this dramatic. The Moscovites were all "one side" according to posters here, so why kill a bunch to make them "more onside?"  Further, we know that Russia has been pulling from rural areas largely disconnected from Moscow.  A bunch of illiterate poor sods who barely understand what is going on.  How is an attack in Moscow going to make them suddenly care more about this war?

    An attack on Moscow also demonstrates weakness.  So if moscovites are weak on this war, a terror attack is likely a poor way to shift mindsets.  In fact, Steve's theory of "why ISIL" conducted this attack in the first place has far more traction - they sensed the divisions and weakness and exploited it.

    These are the inconsistencies that I can see:

    - Russians are a homogeneous mass of sheeple who all hate Ukraine  - but Putin is having trouble selling mass mobilization.

    - Putin needs chaos to drive divided support for this war into his skinny little arms - so he picks a major terror attack at the heart of Russian power and then has to Rube Goldberg it back to Ukraine...and not make Ukraine look like a mastermind while doing so.  

    - Putin has already had plenty of opportunity to declare full on casus belli; how do you think we would respond to a Russian drone strike on Poland?  How about 50 drone strikes?  But he needs to somehow make up a dramatic terror attack to go "all in"...after he already has said that he is "going all in."?  All those refinery strikes and A-50s were not enough.  The freaking Russian Legion was not enough...but Russians are all sheeple how basically respond however Putin wants....seriously?

    - A terror attack is the worst way to go about this if Russian society is divided.  It is too grey.  It leaves too many doubts on the table.  If this was truly a chaos operation one needs to be able to pull undeniable truth from it.  A terror attack like this is one of the worst ways to go about that.  An unambiguous conventional escalation by the west makes for a far better mechanism to create war support and unity...it would be why we have been avoiding these sorts of actions.

    Vague handwaving and head-patting (poor westerners, you simply do not understand Russian mindset) is disingenuous as I have yet to hear one theory that actually holds water from those doing the head -patting.  We basically get "well because...Russia".  Or some dehumanizing nonsense.

    If this is a false flag, or the Russians make a lot of hay out of it - we are seeing a shift in behavior.  A shift that is happening for a reason.  And I am not sure that reason is to somehow erase resistance to mobilization through a muddy asymmetric attack - that, is western-centric thinking because it is what we did last time it happened to us.  

    I'm not saying Putin did this. I don't believe it. A massive drone attack in live TV on some football field crowd would look more impressive than this "grey" random attack.

    Could be some rogue anti-russian team , could be pro UKR chechens , who knows. I don't think this is ISIS. I think by now the islamic state has been reduced to a teenager in a cave with a PC that sends announcments trying to claim the paternity of random attacks. Well not that much maybe, but I don't see why they would go that far after years of silence and even take sides and get involved in a West vs Russia war, because that's how it looks now. 

    Whoever was, the intention was to put more fire under the cauldron. The timing was right. Maybe FSB had some hints but didnt bother much as you say...

    The consequences of the attack will be evident in the coming weeks/months. Already Putin is blaming Ukraine on national broadcast... 

     

     

  8. 5 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

    Maybe, but Russia has already had a lot of opportunities to play that card.  Instead we get "industrial accidents," "airplane malfunctions" and Priggy "miscommunications."  Putin has been downplaying and sidestepping stuff exploding all over Russia for two years.  Why suddenly wake up after winning a fake election and go "you know what, lets try for a Russian 9/11, now"?

     

    I dont think that the refinery attacks are on par with this shocking attack that has definetely terrified muscovites, even on the zombier side. Moscow people were the less involved and interested in this war (and the most opposed to this war). This could accelerate a lot of changes in the security/military apparatus and mobilization. 

    Now it was the worst time, because they recently changed status from spezial militarski operationski to great patriotic war. And because all signs are that war is getting broader with Macron announcing intention to send troops etc which is a new major shift in the Western involvment. 

     

  9. 16 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

    This is clearly a security failure so pinning it on a war opponent makes that opponent look competent and effective.  This is counter narratives of “we are winning in Ukraine” which they have been continually pushing

    How about the other way. "Look we have bravely fought them and flattened them in the battlefield and now they are only capable of cowardly sneaky terror attacks massacring undefended youth. These are the acts of the desperate and the defeated "

    (Buuut if we mobilize some more of you, the country will be a safe invincible fort ) . 

  10. 1 minute ago, The_Capt said:

    I am pretty sure this sentiment has been expressed every time in history a disruptive technology hit the battlefield.  “Damn gunpowder/cannon/muskets/rifles/machineguns/baloons/aircraft/tanks etc, war is hard enough why can’t things just go back to the way they were?”

    The good news is that I am not sure we have hit a change in the nature of warfare yet…maybe…. Character shifts we can deal with.  We are still reeling from the last nature shift back in 1945.  Another one so soon could break us.

    Be honest, who is going to play CM: WDD Where Drones Dare in 2035. It will make Star Wars look dated. Just let the Boomer inside you speak freely, music was better back then, vinyl was better, air and sea were cleaner, warfare was forgiving.

    I tihink I'm going to launch CM FB . I'm enjoying the last good things of my era.

  11. 8 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

    @Kinophile

    This war showed many things, which considered before as impossible became real. There were several cases of cruise missiles downning with HMGs. Yes, if the missile flies with a speed 200 m/s under 90 degrees from your position, your chances are almost zero. But if missile incoming directly to you, your chances raise, especially when your HMG equipped with thermal sight. All question - to give mobile group a proper engagement point. Mobile groups as usual had PDA with "Virazh" AD info system, transmitting trajectories of missiles, so the group can move and take proper position. 

    Also, pay attention, on this video you can see only HMG shooting and missile explosion, no incoming SAM, chasing the cruise missile and hitting it. 

    I'm just not convinced that the HMG that was filming got the kill. Looks almost 90, looks a bit far. Maybe some other AA on the other side, not possible to tell from the video. Also, could this be a shahed again?

  12. I hate where this is heading. Basically this tech can produce never ending wars not dependent on available personnel, even autonomous AI wars, constant terror attacks deep behind lines and other ugliness. 

    I hope someone comes out with a Uber weapon that defeats all frequencies used for drones and these people go out of business. 

    You can't even write a proper anti war novel, movie or song with these little creatures. Oh maybe Slayer can think of something. "Droone warfaaare" 

  13. What a boom. I hope the crews were aware they had been located and targeted and had abandoned the vehicles. Those iskanders are probably the best ground to ground weapon Russia has. I remember earlier in the war they delivered accurate and deadly strikes like the one in the Kiev Mall where Grads were hiding.

    They are indeed getting better at hunting down big pricey western assets. That patriot system could have had a few Su 34 kill rings painted already. But it took them remarkably long for a country they know every inch of, are scanning everyday, have agents inside and it's next to their borders. 

  14. If I were russian I would invest in fast, small patrol tank/boats with shilka quad 23mm turrets that would hunt in front of the big ships. Highly agile that would be impossible to hit with naval drones. 

    For equipment, maybe radar, maybe night vision, definetly a big spotlight. 

    An embarrassment for the BSF that technology a little better than Somali pirate boats can penetrate their defenses and get them to the bottom. 

×
×
  • Create New...